Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
 |
 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
75.9
|
$109.01
|
32.6
|
$131.23
|
32.5
|
1.0512
|
$130.98
|
76.0
|
$124.69
|
1.0018
|
$124.92
|
|
1981
|
11.2
|
76.0
|
124.69
|
30.4
|
141.84
|
31.2
|
1.0578
|
146.68
|
75.2
|
137.03
|
1.0030
|
137.44
|
|
1982
|
7.4
|
75.2
|
137.03
|
31.5
|
153.31
|
31.7
|
1.0629
|
156.42
|
75.0
|
146.17
|
1.0023
|
146.51
|
|
1983
|
3.5
|
75.0
|
146.17
|
33.1
|
160.03
|
32.2
|
1.0694
|
161.78
|
75.9
|
150.66
|
1.0084
|
151.92
|
|
1984
|
3.5
|
75.9
|
150.66
|
31.9
|
165.03
|
31.8
|
1.0521
|
164.06
|
76.0
|
156.35
|
1.0095
|
157.83
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
76.0
|
156.35
|
32.4
|
169.83
|
32.6
|
1.0420
|
167.96
|
75.8
|
162.00
|
1.0114
|
163.84
|
|
1986
|
1.3
|
75.8
|
162.00
|
32.1
|
171.39
|
32.2
|
1.0366
|
170.11
|
75.6
|
164.66
|
1.0111
|
166.48
|
|
1987
|
4.2
|
75.6
|
164.66
|
30.5
|
181.09
|
31.3
|
1.0527
|
180.62
|
74.9
|
172.19
|
1.0117
|
174.21
|
|
1988
|
4.0
|
74.9
|
172.19
|
28.3
|
189.53
|
30.5
|
1.0790
|
193.22
|
72.7
|
180.63
|
1.0127
|
182.92
|
|
1989
|
4.7
|
72.7
|
180.63
|
26.3
|
200.01
|
29.9
|
1.0799
|
204.24
|
69.1
|
190.86
|
1.0122
|
193.19
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
69.1
|
190.86
|
25.2
|
211.02
|
28.6
|
1.1007
|
221.42
|
65.6
|
202.12
|
1.0129
|
204.73
|
|
1991
|
3.7
|
65.6
|
202.12
|
24.4
|
222.04
|
27.1
|
1.1278
|
236.39
|
62.9
|
211.05
|
1.0136
|
213.91
|
|
1992
|
3.0
|
62.9
|
211.05
|
25.4
|
227.22
|
26.7
|
1.1141
|
242.18
|
61.6
|
218.57
|
1.0141
|
221.65
|
|
1993
|
2.6
|
61.6
|
218.57
|
25.5
|
232.12
|
26.9
|
1.0594
|
237.57
|
60.2
|
224.70
|
1.0150
|
228.08
|
|
1994
|
2.8
|
60.2
|
224.70
|
24.2
|
247.57
|
25.9
|
1.0391
|
240.02
|
58.5
|
233.94
|
1.0141
|
237.25
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
58.5
|
233.94
|
22.8
|
259.16
|
25.3
|
1.0430
|
250.35
|
56.0
|
243.24
|
1.0148
|
246.84
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
56.0
|
243.24
|
21.7
|
264.35
|
23.8
|
1.0359
|
259.28
|
53.9
|
252.13
|
1.0150
|
255.91
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
53.9
|
252.13
|
23.3
|
257.11
|
23.9
|
1.0216
|
262.97
|
53.4
|
254.89
|
1.0141
|
258.48
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
53.4
|
254.89
|
22.7
|
260.46
|
23.1
|
1.0254
|
264.75
|
53.0
|
256.40
|
1.0140
|
259.99
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
53.0
|
256.40
|
22.5
|
268.79
|
23.2
|
1.0288
|
270.38
|
52.3
|
262.17
|
1.0123
|
265.40
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
52.3
|
262.17
|
22.3
|
276.61
|
23.4
|
1.0241
|
277.87
|
51.3
|
271.02
|
1.0122
|
274.32
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
51.3
|
271.02
|
21.9
|
287.19
|
22.4
|
1.0170
|
282.78
|
50.7
|
280.53
|
1.0118
|
283.84
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
50.7
|
280.53
|
22.8
|
286.21
|
22.8
|
1.0177
|
289.50
|
50.7
|
285.06
|
1.0125
|
288.62
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
50.7
|
285.06
|
24.2
|
295.58
|
20.8
|
1.0135
|
294.97
|
54.1
|
293.43
|
1.0120
|
296.95
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
54.1
|
293.43
|
26.0
|
296.82
|
18.7
|
1.0644
|
320.76
|
61.3
|
297.90
|
1.0111
|
301.20
|
|
2005-I
|
...
|
61.3
|
297.90
|
7.0
|
293.99
|
5.3
|
1.0270
|
305.94
|
63.1
|
296.80
|
1.0135
|
300.80
|
|
2005-II
|
...
|
63.1
|
296.80
|
7.0
|
294.53
|
5.4
|
1.0180
|
302.14
|
64.7
|
296.11
|
1.0124
|
299.78
|
|
2005-III
|
...
|
64.7
|
296.11
|
7.0
|
295.08
|
5.5
|
1.0340
|
306.18
|
66.1
|
295.16
|
1.0119
|
298.68
|
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
66.1
|
295.16
|
6.5
|
301.54
|
5.6
|
1.0100
|
304.09
|
67.0
|
300.87
|
1.0122
|
304.54
|
|
2006-I
|
...
|
67.0
|
300.87
|
7.4
|
302.11
|
5.7
|
1.0270
|
308.99
|
68.7
|
300.33
|
1.0135
|
304.38
|
|
2006-II
|
...
|
68.7
|
300.33
|
7.4
|
302.68
|
5.9
|
1.0180
|
305.73
|
70.2
|
300.12
|
1.0124
|
303.84
|
|
2006-III
|
...
|
70.2
|
300.12
|
7.4
|
303.25
|
6.0
|
1.0340
|
310.32
|
71.6
|
299.59
|
1.0119
|
303.16
|
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
71.6
|
299.59
|
6.9
|
310.50
|
6.1
|
1.0100
|
309.26
|
72.5
|
306.35
|
1.0122
|
310.09
|
|
2007-I
|
...
|
72.5
|
306.35
|
8.0
|
311.37
|
6.2
|
1.0270
|
314.62
|
74.3
|
306.20
|
1.0135
|
310.34
|
|
2007-II
|
...
|
74.3
|
306.20
|
8.0
|
312.23
|
6.3
|
1.0180
|
311.71
|
75.9
|
306.37
|
1.0124
|
310.17
|
|
2007-III
|
...
|
75.9
|
306.37
|
8.0
|
313.10
|
6.5
|
1.0340
|
316.79
|
77.4
|
306.20
|
1.0119
|
309.84
|
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
77.4
|
306.20
|
7.5
|
322.44
|
6.6
|
1.0100
|
317.63
|
78.3
|
314.98
|
1.0122
|
318.82
|
|
2008-I
|
...
|
78.3
|
314.98
|
8.8
|
323.63
|
6.7
|
1.0270
|
323.48
|
80.5
|
315.22
|
1.0135
|
319.47
|
|
2008-II
|
...
|
80.5
|
315.22
|
8.8
|
324.83
|
6.9
|
1.0180
|
320.89
|
82.4
|
315.77
|
1.0124
|
319.69
|
|
2008-III
|
...
|
82.4
|
315.77
|
8.8
|
326.03
|
7.0
|
1.0340
|
326.51
|
84.2
|
315.95
|
1.0119
|
319.71
|
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
84.2
|
315.95
|
8.3
|
336.39
|
7.2
|
1.0100
|
328.06
|
85.3
|
325.66
|
1.0122
|
329.63
|
|
2009-I
|
...
|
85.3
|
325.66
|
9.8
|
337.44
|
7.3
|
1.0270
|
334.45
|
87.8
|
326.25
|
1.0135
|
330.65
|
|
2009-II
|
...
|
87.8
|
326.25
|
9.8
|
338.49
|
7.5
|
1.0180
|
332.12
|
90.2
|
327.10
|
1.0124
|
331.15
|
|
2009-III
|
...
|
90.2
|
327.10
|
9.8
|
339.54
|
7.7
|
1.0340
|
338.22
|
92.3
|
327.49
|
1.0119
|
331.39
|
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
92.3
|
327.49
|
9.2
|
350.13
|
7.9
|
1.0100
|
340.05
|
93.7
|
337.73
|
1.0122
|
341.85
|
|
2010-I
|
...
|
93.7
|
337.73
|
9.9
|
351.87
|
8.0
|
1.0270
|
346.84
|
95.6
|
338.43
|
1.0135
|
342.99
|
|
2010-II
|
...
|
95.6
|
338.43
|
9.9
|
353.62
|
8.1
|
1.0180
|
344.52
|
97.3
|
339.46
|
1.0124
|
343.67
|
|
2010-III
|
...
|
97.3
|
339.46
|
9.9
|
355.36
|
8.3
|
1.0340
|
351.00
|
98.9
|
340.08
|
1.0119
|
344.13
|
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
98.9
|
340.08
|
9.3
|
367.11
|
8.4
|
1.0100
|
353.12
|
99.8
|
350.95
|
1.0122
|
355.23
|
|
2011-I
|
...
|
99.8
|
350.95
|
9.8
|
368.87
|
8.5
|
1.0270
|
360.42
|
101.0
|
351.88
|
1.0135
|
356.63
|
|
2011-II
|
...
|
101.0
|
351.88
|
9.8
|
370.64
|
8.6
|
1.0180
|
358.22
|
102.2
|
353.14
|
1.0124
|
357.52
|
|
2011-III
|
...
|
102.2
|
353.14
|
9.8
|
372.41
|
8.7
|
1.0340
|
365.15
|
103.3
|
353.95
|
1.0119
|
358.17
|
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
103.3
|
353.95
|
9.1
|
384.65
|
8.7
|
1.0100
|
367.52
|
103.7
|
365.41
|
1.0122
|
369.86
|
|
2012-I
|
...
|
103.7
|
365.41
|
9.9
|
385.96
|
8.8
|
1.0270
|
375.27
|
104.8
|
366.52
|
1.0135
|
371.47
|
|
2012-II
|
...
|
104.8
|
366.52
|
9.9
|
387.27
|
8.9
|
1.0180
|
373.12
|
105.8
|
367.91
|
1.0124
|
372.47
|
|
2012-III
|
...
|
105.8
|
367.91
|
9.9
|
388.57
|
9.0
|
1.0340
|
380.42
|
106.8
|
368.78
|
1.0119
|
373.17
|
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
106.8
|
368.78
|
9.3
|
400.80
|
9.0
|
1.0100
|
382.91
|
107.0
|
380.68
|
1.0122
|
385.33
|
|
2013-I
|
...
|
107.0
|
380.68
|
10.0
|
402.05
|
9.1
|
1.0270
|
390.96
|
108.0
|
381.80
|
1.0135
|
386.96
|
|
2013-II
|
...
|
108.0
|
381.80
|
10.0
|
403.31
|
9.2
|
1.0180
|
388.67
|
108.9
|
383.21
|
1.0124
|
387.96
|
|
2013-III
|
...
|
108.9
|
383.21
|
10.0
|
404.56
|
9.2
|
1.0340
|
396.24
|
109.7
|
384.06
|
1.0119
|
388.63
|
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
109.7
|
384.06
|
9.4
|
417.18
|
9.3
|
1.0100
|
398.78
|
109.8
|
396.42
|
1.0122
|
401.25
|
|
2014-I
|
...
|
109.8
|
396.42
|
10.2
|
418.43
|
9.3
|
1.0270
|
407.12
|
110.7
|
397.54
|
1.0135
|
402.90
|
|
2014-II
|
...
|
110.7
|
397.54
|
10.2
|
419.67
|
9.4
|
1.0180
|
404.69
|
111.5
|
398.96
|
1.0124
|
403.91
|
|
2014-III
|
...
|
111.5
|
398.96
|
10.2
|
420.92
|
9.4
|
1.0340
|
412.52
|
112.2
|
399.81
|
1.0119
|
404.56
|
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
112.2
|
399.81
|
9.5
|
433.98
|
9.5
|
1.0100
|
415.13
|
112.2
|
412.62
|
1.0122
|
417.65
|
| 1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.