Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar year
|
Average annual percentage change in--
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Labor force1
|
Total employment2
|
Real GDP3
|
|||
|
1975
|
8.5
|
2.0
|
-1.1
|
-0.2
|
7.4
|
|
1976
|
7.7
|
2.5
|
3.3
|
5.3
|
7.1
|
|
1977
|
7.1
|
2.9
|
3.6
|
4.6
|
7.1
|
|
1978
|
6.1
|
3.3
|
4.3
|
5.6
|
8.2
|
|
1979
|
5.9
|
2.7
|
2.8
|
3.2
|
9.1
|
|
1980
|
7.2
|
1.9
|
.5
|
-.2
|
11.0
|
|
1981
|
7.6
|
1.6
|
1.1
|
2.5
|
13.3
|
|
1982
|
9.7
|
1.4
|
-.8
|
-1.9
|
12.8
|
|
1983
|
9.6
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
4.5
|
11.0
|
|
1984
|
7.5
|
1.8
|
4.1
|
7.2
|
12.4
|
|
1985
|
7.2
|
1.7
|
2.0
|
4.1
|
10.8
|
|
1986
|
7.0
|
2.1
|
2.2
|
3.5
|
8.0
|
|
1987
|
6.2
|
1.7
|
2.6
|
3.4
|
8.4
|
|
1988
|
5.5
|
1.5
|
2.2
|
4.1
|
8.8
|
|
1989
|
5.3
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
3.5
|
8.7
|
|
1990
|
5.6
|
1.6
|
1.2
|
1.9
|
8.6
|
|
1991
|
6.9
|
.4
|
-.9
|
-.2
|
8.0
|
|
1992
|
7.5
|
1.4
|
.5
|
3.3
|
7.1
|
|
1993
|
6.9
|
.8
|
1.3
|
2.7
|
6.1
|
|
1994
|
6.1
|
1.4
|
2.2
|
4.0
|
7.1
|
|
1995
|
5.6
|
1.0
|
1.4
|
2.5
|
6.9
|
|
1996
|
5.4
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
3.7
|
6.6
|
|
1997
|
4.9
|
1.8
|
2.2
|
4.5
|
6.6
|
|
1998
|
4.5
|
1.0
|
1.4
|
4.2
|
5.6
|
|
1999
|
4.2
|
1.2
|
1.5
|
4.4
|
5.9
|
|
2000
|
4.0
|
2.3
|
2.5
|
3.7
|
6.2
|
|
2001
|
4.8
|
.8
|
.0
|
.8
|
5.2
|
|
2002
|
5.8
|
.8
|
-.3
|
1.9
|
4.9
|
|
2003
|
6.0
|
1.1
|
.9
|
3.0
|
4.1
|
|
2004
|
5.5
|
0.6
|
1.1
|
4.4
|
4.3
|
|
2005
|
5.4
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
3.6
|
4.2
|
|
2006
|
5.3
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
3.5
|
5.1
|
|
2007
|
5.3
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
3.0
|
5.5
|
|
2008
|
5.4
|
.9
|
.8
|
2.7
|
5.6
|
|
2009
|
5.4
|
.8
|
.8
|
2.5
|
5.6
|
|
2010
|
5.5
|
.8
|
.7
|
2.5
|
5.7
|
|
2011
|
5.5
|
.8
|
.7
|
2.4
|
5.8
|
|
2012
|
5.5
|
.6
|
.6
|
2.3
|
5.8
|
|
2013
|
5.5
|
.6
|
.6
|
2.2
|
5.8
|
|
2014
|
5.5
|
.6
|
.6
|
2.1
|
5.8
|
| 1Civilian. 2Civilian employment plus U.S. Armed Forces. 3The real gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S., expressed in 2000 dollars. 4The average annual interest rate is the average of the 12 monthly nominal interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds. In practice, these rates are compounded semiannually. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A2 and V.B2 for low cost and high cost alternatives, respectively.