2018 OASDI Trustees Report

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B. SOCIAL SECURITY AMENDMENTS SINCE THE 2017 REPORT
Since the Trustees submitted the 2017 report to Congress, the rescission of one policy and the enactment of one law are expected to have notable effects on the financial status of the OASDI program.
The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, policy was implemented on June 15, 2012 and rescinded by the Administration on September 5, 2017. The original policy enabled certain other-than-lawful-permanent-resident immigrants who entered the United States as children to receive employment authorization. Rescission of DACA will reduce the number of authorized workers and projected payroll tax income slightly; however, fewer of these individuals will receive benefits in the longer term. As a result, the elimination of DACA has a small but significant net negative financial impact over the short-range projection period and a negligible net negative effect over the long-range projection period.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Public Law 115-97, was enacted on December 22, 2017. This law will have several effects on the actuarial status of the OASDI program. The law reduces tax rates for individuals, alters the tax brackets and their indexing, and repeals the individual mandate of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The repeal of the individual mandate is expected to cause some individuals to drop their employer sponsored health insurance, which is estimated to increase OASDI covered wages and taxable payroll slightly. The tax rate and tax bracket changes will affect income to the trust funds from taxation of Social Security benefits. Because the law reduces tax rates through 2025, and the tax bracket thresholds will grow more slowly in the future due to the change in indexing, income from taxation of benefits relative to last year’s report is decreased through 2025 and increased thereafter. In addition, temporary changes for certain small businesses will have effects on reported self-employment income. As a whole, the law has a significant net negative effect on the financial status of the OASDI program over the short-range projection period and a negligible net positive effect over the long-range projection period.
Sections  IV.A.4 and IV.B.6 of this report provide further description of the magnitude of effects on the financial status of the OASDI program.

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