2001 OASDI Trustees Report
The major findings of this report are summarized below.
Short-range results-Under the intermediate assumptions the OASI and DI Trust Funds, individually and combined, are expected to be adequately financed over the next 10 years. The combined assets of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are projected to increase from the level of $1,049 billion at the beginning of 2001, or 239 percent of expenditures in 2001, to $3,088 billion at the beginning of 2010, or 419 percent of expenditures in 2010. Assets at the beginning of 2010 were projected to rise to 406 percent of annual expenditures in last year's report.
Long-range results-Under the intermediate assumptions the combined OASDI Trust Funds are expected to become exhausted in 2038, one year later than projected in last year's report. The projected actuarial deficit is 1.86 percent of taxable payroll, 0.03 percent smaller than in last year's report. Between about 2010 and 2030, OASDI costs will increase rapidly due to the retirement of the large baby-boom generation, and annual costs will exceed tax income starting in 2016. Thereafter, the upward shift in the average age of the population will continue, but at a slower pace, due to expected increases in life expectancy and the expected continuation of relatively low fertility rates. The OASDI annual cost rate is projected to increase from 10.50 percent of taxable payroll for 2001 to 19.39 percent for 2075, or 6.05 percent of taxable payroll more than the projected income rate for that year. Expressed in relation to the projected gross domestic product, the OASDI costs are estimated to rise from the current level of 4.17 percent of GDP to 6.70 percent in 2075. Separately, the DI fund is projected to be exhausted in 2026 and the OASI fund in 2040.
Low cost and high cost assumptions-Under the low cost assumptions, both the OASI and the DI Trust Funds are projected to be adequately financed throughout the 75-year projection period. Under the high cost assumptions, the combined OASDI Trust Funds are projected to be exhausted in 2027, and the OASDI cost rate rises sharply to 27.93 percent of taxable payroll by 2075. Individually, the DI fund would be exhausted in 2014 and the OASI fund in 2030 under the high cost assumptions.