Description of Proposed Provision:
E1.4: Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2023-2042, until the rate reaches 14.4 percent in 2042 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.14 | -1.40 | 215 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 13.27 | -1.56 | 199 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.39 | -1.71 | 184 | -0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 | ||
| 2026 | 15.37 | 13.51 | -1.86 | 169 | -0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 | ||
| 2027 | 15.62 | 13.62 | -1.99 | 154 | -0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 | ||
| 2028 | 15.85 | 13.73 | -2.12 | 139 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2029 | 16.06 | 13.84 | -2.22 | 124 | -0.00 | 0.66 | 0.66 | ||
| 2030 | 16.26 | 13.95 | -2.31 | 110 | -0.00 | 0.76 | 0.76 | ||
| 2031 | 16.45 | 14.06 | -2.39 | 96 | -0.00 | 0.85 | 0.85 | ||
| 2032 | 16.60 | 14.17 | -2.44 | 82 | -0.00 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||
| 2033 | 16.74 | 14.27 | -2.47 | 68 | -0.00 | 1.04 | 1.04 | ||
| 2034 | 16.84 | 14.37 | -2.47 | 54 | -0.00 | 1.14 | 1.14 | ||
| 2035 | 16.92 | 14.47 | -2.45 | 40 | -0.00 | 1.23 | 1.24 | ||
| 2036 | 16.98 | 14.57 | -2.41 | 26 | -0.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 | ||
| 2037 | 17.02 | 14.67 | -2.35 | 13 | -0.01 | 1.42 | 1.43 | ||
| 2038 | 17.02 | 14.76 | -2.25 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.51 | 1.52 | ||
| 2039 | 16.99 | 14.86 | -2.13 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.61 | 1.62 | ||
| 2040 | 16.95 | 14.95 | -2.00 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.70 | 1.71 | ||
| 2041 | 16.91 | 15.04 | -1.86 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.80 | 1.81 | ||
| 2042 | 16.85 | 15.13 | -1.72 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.89 | 1.90 | ||
| 2043 | 16.80 | 15.14 | -1.66 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.90 | 1.91 | ||
| 2044 | 16.75 | 15.13 | -1.61 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.90 | 1.91 | ||
| 2045 | 16.71 | 15.13 | -1.57 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.90 | 1.91 | ||
| 2046 | 16.67 | 15.13 | -1.53 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.90 | 1.91 | ||
| 2047 | 16.63 | 15.13 | -1.50 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.90 | 1.91 | ||
| 2048 | 16.60 | 15.13 | -1.47 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.90 | 1.91 | ||
| 2049 | 16.57 | 15.13 | -1.44 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.90 | 1.91 | ||
| 2050 | 16.55 | 15.13 | -1.42 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.90 | 1.92 | ||
| 2051 | 16.54 | 15.13 | -1.41 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.90 | 1.92 | ||
| 2052 | 16.54 | 15.13 | -1.40 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.90 | 1.92 | ||
| 2053 | 16.55 | 15.13 | -1.41 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.90 | 1.92 | ||
| 2054 | 16.56 | 15.13 | -1.43 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.90 | 1.92 | ||
| 2055 | 16.59 | 15.14 | -1.46 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.90 | 1.92 | ||
| 2056 | 16.63 | 15.14 | -1.49 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.90 | 1.93 | ||
| 2057 | 16.67 | 15.14 | -1.52 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.90 | 1.93 | ||
| 2058 | 16.71 | 15.15 | -1.56 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.90 | 1.93 | ||
| 2059 | 16.75 | 15.15 | -1.60 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.90 | 1.93 | ||
| 2060 | 16.79 | 15.15 | -1.64 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.90 | 1.94 | ||
| 2061 | 16.84 | 15.16 | -1.68 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.90 | 1.94 | ||
| 2062 | 16.88 | 15.16 | -1.72 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.90 | 1.94 | ||
| 2063 | 16.93 | 15.16 | -1.77 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.90 | 1.94 | ||
| 2064 | 16.98 | 15.17 | -1.81 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.90 | 1.94 | ||
| 2065 | 17.02 | 15.17 | -1.85 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.90 | 1.95 | ||
| 2066 | 17.07 | 15.17 | -1.90 | ---- | -0.05 | 1.90 | 1.95 | ||
| 2067 | 17.12 | 15.18 | -1.94 | ---- | -0.05 | 1.90 | 1.95 | ||
| 2068 | 17.17 | 15.18 | -1.99 | ---- | -0.05 | 1.90 | 1.95 | ||
| 2069 | 17.22 | 15.19 | -2.04 | ---- | -0.05 | 1.90 | 1.95 | ||
| 2070 | 17.27 | 15.19 | -2.09 | ---- | -0.05 | 1.90 | 1.96 | ||
| 2071 | 17.32 | 15.19 | -2.13 | ---- | -0.05 | 1.90 | 1.96 | ||
| 2072 | 17.36 | 15.20 | -2.16 | ---- | -0.06 | 1.91 | 1.96 | ||
| 2073 | 17.39 | 15.20 | -2.19 | ---- | -0.06 | 1.91 | 1.96 | ||
| 2074 | 17.42 | 15.20 | -2.22 | ---- | -0.06 | 1.91 | 1.96 | ||
| 2075 | 17.44 | 15.20 | -2.24 | ---- | -0.06 | 1.91 | 1.97 | ||
| 2076 | 17.46 | 15.21 | -2.25 | ---- | -0.06 | 1.91 | 1.97 | ||
| 2077 | 17.46 | 15.21 | -2.26 | ---- | -0.06 | 1.91 | 1.97 | ||
| 2078 | 17.46 | 15.21 | -2.25 | ---- | -0.06 | 1.91 | 1.97 | ||
| 2079 | 17.45 | 15.21 | -2.25 | ---- | -0.06 | 1.91 | 1.97 | ||
| 2080 | 17.45 | 15.21 | -2.24 | ---- | -0.06 | 1.91 | 1.97 | ||
| 2081 | 17.44 | 15.21 | -2.23 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.97 | ||
| 2082 | 17.44 | 15.21 | -2.23 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
| 2083 | 17.45 | 15.21 | -2.24 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
| 2084 | 17.46 | 15.21 | -2.25 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
| 2085 | 17.48 | 15.21 | -2.27 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
| 2086 | 17.51 | 15.21 | -2.30 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
| 2087 | 17.55 | 15.22 | -2.33 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
| 2088 | 17.59 | 15.22 | -2.37 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
| 2089 | 17.63 | 15.22 | -2.41 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
| 2090 | 17.68 | 15.23 | -2.45 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
| 2091 | 17.72 | 15.23 | -2.50 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.91 | 1.99 | ||
| 2092 | 17.77 | 15.23 | -2.54 | ---- | -0.07 | 1.92 | 1.99 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.64% | 15.26% | -1.38% | 2037 | -0.03% | 1.42% | 1.45% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.