Description of Proposed Provision:
E1.2: Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 15.5 percent in 2031-2060, and to 18.6 percent in years 2061 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 12.97 | -1.66 | 206 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 12.99 | -1.81 | 188 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.01 | -1.98 | 171 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.16 | 13.13 | -2.02 | 154 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.15 | -2.21 | 137 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.58 | 13.17 | -2.41 | 120 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2029 | 15.79 | 13.19 | -2.60 | 104 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2030 | 15.98 | 13.20 | -2.78 | 86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2031 | 16.16 | 15.95 | -0.21 | 69 | 0.00 | 2.74 | 2.74 | ||
| 2032 | 16.31 | 16.14 | -0.17 | 68 | -0.00 | 2.92 | 2.92 | ||
| 2033 | 16.45 | 16.15 | -0.29 | 67 | -0.01 | 2.92 | 2.92 | ||
| 2034 | 16.56 | 16.16 | -0.40 | 66 | -0.01 | 2.92 | 2.92 | ||
| 2035 | 16.64 | 16.17 | -0.47 | 64 | -0.01 | 2.92 | 2.92 | ||
| 2036 | 16.72 | 16.18 | -0.54 | 62 | -0.01 | 2.92 | 2.92 | ||
| 2037 | 16.78 | 16.18 | -0.59 | 59 | -0.01 | 2.92 | 2.93 | ||
| 2038 | 16.81 | 16.19 | -0.62 | 56 | -0.01 | 2.92 | 2.93 | ||
| 2039 | 16.82 | 16.19 | -0.63 | 53 | -0.01 | 2.92 | 2.93 | ||
| 2040 | 16.82 | 16.19 | -0.63 | 50 | -0.01 | 2.92 | 2.93 | ||
| 2041 | 16.80 | 16.19 | -0.60 | 47 | -0.01 | 2.92 | 2.93 | ||
| 2042 | 16.76 | 16.19 | -0.57 | 45 | -0.01 | 2.92 | 2.93 | ||
| 2043 | 16.72 | 16.19 | -0.53 | 42 | -0.02 | 2.92 | 2.94 | ||
| 2044 | 16.68 | 16.19 | -0.49 | 39 | -0.02 | 2.92 | 2.94 | ||
| 2045 | 16.64 | 16.19 | -0.45 | 37 | -0.02 | 2.92 | 2.94 | ||
| 2046 | 16.61 | 16.19 | -0.42 | 35 | -0.02 | 2.92 | 2.94 | ||
| 2047 | 16.58 | 16.19 | -0.39 | 33 | -0.02 | 2.92 | 2.94 | ||
| 2048 | 16.55 | 16.19 | -0.36 | 31 | -0.02 | 2.92 | 2.95 | ||
| 2049 | 16.53 | 16.19 | -0.34 | 30 | -0.03 | 2.92 | 2.95 | ||
| 2050 | 16.51 | 16.19 | -0.32 | 28 | -0.03 | 2.92 | 2.95 | ||
| 2051 | 16.50 | 16.19 | -0.31 | 27 | -0.03 | 2.92 | 2.95 | ||
| 2052 | 16.50 | 16.19 | -0.31 | 25 | -0.03 | 2.92 | 2.96 | ||
| 2053 | 16.51 | 16.20 | -0.31 | 24 | -0.04 | 2.92 | 2.96 | ||
| 2054 | 16.52 | 16.20 | -0.32 | 22 | -0.04 | 2.92 | 2.96 | ||
| 2055 | 16.55 | 16.20 | -0.35 | 20 | -0.04 | 2.93 | 2.97 | ||
| 2056 | 16.58 | 16.20 | -0.37 | 19 | -0.04 | 2.93 | 2.97 | ||
| 2057 | 16.62 | 16.21 | -0.41 | 17 | -0.05 | 2.93 | 2.97 | ||
| 2058 | 16.66 | 16.21 | -0.45 | 15 | -0.05 | 2.93 | 2.98 | ||
| 2059 | 16.71 | 16.22 | -0.49 | 12 | -0.05 | 2.93 | 2.98 | ||
| 2060 | 16.75 | 16.22 | -0.53 | 10 | -0.06 | 2.93 | 2.98 | ||
| 2061 | 16.80 | 18.90 | 2.10 | 7 | -0.06 | 5.60 | 5.65 | ||
| 2062 | 16.85 | 19.07 | 2.23 | 19 | -0.06 | 5.77 | 5.84 | ||
| 2063 | 16.89 | 19.08 | 2.19 | 32 | -0.07 | 5.77 | 5.84 | ||
| 2064 | 16.94 | 19.09 | 2.14 | 46 | -0.07 | 5.77 | 5.85 | ||
| 2065 | 16.99 | 19.09 | 2.10 | 58 | -0.08 | 5.78 | 5.85 | ||
| 2066 | 17.05 | 19.10 | 2.05 | 71 | -0.08 | 5.78 | 5.86 | ||
| 2067 | 17.10 | 19.10 | 2.00 | 84 | -0.08 | 5.78 | 5.86 | ||
| 2068 | 17.16 | 19.11 | 1.95 | 96 | -0.09 | 5.78 | 5.87 | ||
| 2069 | 17.21 | 19.11 | 1.90 | 108 | -0.09 | 5.78 | 5.87 | ||
| 2070 | 17.27 | 19.12 | 1.85 | 120 | -0.09 | 5.78 | 5.88 | ||
| 2071 | 17.32 | 19.12 | 1.80 | 132 | -0.10 | 5.79 | 5.88 | ||
| 2072 | 17.37 | 19.13 | 1.76 | 143 | -0.10 | 5.79 | 5.89 | ||
| 2073 | 17.41 | 19.13 | 1.73 | 154 | -0.11 | 5.79 | 5.89 | ||
| 2074 | 17.44 | 19.14 | 1.70 | 166 | -0.11 | 5.79 | 5.90 | ||
| 2075 | 17.47 | 19.14 | 1.67 | 177 | -0.11 | 5.79 | 5.90 | ||
| 2076 | 17.49 | 19.15 | 1.65 | 188 | -0.12 | 5.79 | 5.91 | ||
| 2077 | 17.50 | 19.15 | 1.65 | 199 | -0.12 | 5.80 | 5.92 | ||
| 2078 | 17.50 | 19.15 | 1.65 | 211 | -0.12 | 5.80 | 5.92 | ||
| 2079 | 17.49 | 19.16 | 1.66 | 223 | -0.13 | 5.80 | 5.93 | ||
| 2080 | 17.48 | 19.16 | 1.68 | 235 | -0.13 | 5.80 | 5.93 | ||
| 2081 | 17.46 | 19.16 | 1.70 | 247 | -0.13 | 5.80 | 5.94 | ||
| 2082 | 17.44 | 19.16 | 1.72 | 260 | -0.14 | 5.81 | 5.94 | ||
| 2083 | 17.42 | 19.16 | 1.74 | 273 | -0.14 | 5.81 | 5.95 | ||
| 2084 | 17.40 | 19.16 | 1.76 | 286 | -0.14 | 5.81 | 5.95 | ||
| 2085 | 17.39 | 19.16 | 1.78 | 299 | -0.14 | 5.81 | 5.96 | ||
| 2086 | 17.38 | 19.16 | 1.78 | 313 | -0.15 | 5.81 | 5.96 | ||
| 2087 | 17.38 | 19.17 | 1.78 | 326 | -0.15 | 5.82 | 5.96 | ||
| 2088 | 17.39 | 19.17 | 1.78 | 340 | -0.15 | 5.82 | 5.97 | ||
| 2089 | 17.41 | 19.17 | 1.76 | 354 | -0.16 | 5.82 | 5.97 | ||
| 2090 | 17.44 | 19.18 | 1.74 | 367 | -0.16 | 5.82 | 5.98 | ||
| 2091 | 17.47 | 19.18 | 1.71 | 380 | -0.16 | 5.82 | 5.98 | ||
| 2092 | 17.51 | 19.19 | 1.67 | 393 | -0.16 | 5.83 | 5.99 | ||
| 2093 | 17.56 | 19.19 | 1.63 | 406 | -0.17 | 5.83 | 5.99 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.64% | 17.13% | 0.49% | N/A | -0.05% | 3.28% | 3.33% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.