Detailed Single Year Tables
Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.13: For retired worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2031 (excluding disabled workers), add a new bend point at the wage-indexed equivalent of the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution minus $100 (for 2015 eligibility) and change the PIA factors to 95/32/15/5. Also move the current-law first bend point from the wage-indexed equivalent of $1,174 in 2023 to $1,493 in 2024. Phase this provision in over 10 years (2031-2040). The phase-in would work on a weighted-average basis: 90% of CL formula + 10% of proposal formula for 2031, 80% of CL formula + 20% of proposal formula for 2032, and so on.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2024 | 14.71 | 13.03 | -1.68 | 188 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.00 | 12.89 | -2.11 | 171 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.20 | 13.07 | -2.13 | 152 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.11 | -2.25 | 134 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.42 | 13.13 | -2.28 | 117 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2029 | 15.47 | 13.16 | -2.31 | 101 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2030 | 15.53 | 13.18 | -2.35 | 84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2031 | 15.58 | 13.20 | -2.37 | 68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2032 | 15.60 | 13.22 | -2.38 | 53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2033 | 15.66 | 13.26 | -2.40 | 37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2034 | 15.78 | 13.28 | -2.50 | 22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2035 | 15.89 | 13.29 | -2.60 | 7 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2036 | 16.00 | 13.30 | -2.70 | — | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2037 | 16.10 | 13.30 | -2.80 | — | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2038 | 16.19 | 13.31 | -2.88 | — | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2039 | 16.26 | 13.32 | -2.95 | — | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2040 | 16.33 | 13.33 | -3.01 | — | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2041 | 16.40 | 13.33 | -3.07 | — | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2042 | 16.44 | 13.33 | -3.11 | — | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2043 | 16.49 | 13.34 | -3.15 | — | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2044 | 16.52 | 13.34 | -3.18 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2045 | 16.55 | 13.34 | -3.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2046 | 16.57 | 13.35 | -3.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2047 | 16.60 | 13.35 | -3.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2048 | 16.63 | 13.35 | -3.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2049 | 16.66 | 13.36 | -3.31 | — | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2050 | 16.70 | 13.36 | -3.34 | — | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2051 | 16.74 | 13.36 | -3.38 | — | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2052 | 16.79 | 13.37 | -3.42 | — | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2053 | 16.84 | 13.37 | -3.47 | — | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0.08 | ||
| 2054 | 16.90 | 13.38 | -3.52 | — | -0.10 | -0.01 | 0.09 | ||
| 2055 | 16.97 | 13.38 | -3.58 | — | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2056 | 17.04 | 13.39 | -3.65 | — | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2057 | 17.11 | 13.40 | -3.72 | — | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2058 | 17.19 | 13.40 | -3.79 | — | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2059 | 17.27 | 13.41 | -3.86 | — | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2060 | 17.34 | 13.41 | -3.93 | — | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2061 | 17.42 | 13.42 | -4.00 | — | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2062 | 17.48 | 13.43 | -4.06 | — | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2063 | 17.54 | 13.43 | -4.11 | — | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2064 | 17.60 | 13.44 | -4.17 | — | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2065 | 17.66 | 13.44 | -4.22 | — | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2066 | 17.72 | 13.45 | -4.28 | — | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2067 | 17.78 | 13.45 | -4.33 | — | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2068 | 17.85 | 13.46 | -4.39 | — | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2069 | 17.91 | 13.46 | -4.45 | — | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2070 | 17.98 | 13.47 | -4.51 | — | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2071 | 18.04 | 13.47 | -4.57 | — | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2072 | 18.10 | 13.48 | -4.63 | — | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2073 | 18.16 | 13.48 | -4.68 | — | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2074 | 18.22 | 13.49 | -4.73 | — | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2075 | 18.27 | 13.49 | -4.78 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2076 | 18.31 | 13.49 | -4.82 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2077 | 18.34 | 13.50 | -4.85 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2078 | 18.36 | 13.50 | -4.87 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2079 | 18.37 | 13.50 | -4.87 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2080 | 18.37 | 13.50 | -4.87 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2081 | 18.37 | 13.50 | -4.87 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2082 | 18.35 | 13.50 | -4.85 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2083 | 18.32 | 13.50 | -4.82 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2084 | 18.29 | 13.50 | -4.79 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2085 | 18.25 | 13.49 | -4.75 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2086 | 18.20 | 13.49 | -4.70 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2087 | 18.14 | 13.49 | -4.65 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2088 | 18.08 | 13.48 | -4.59 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2089 | 18.02 | 13.48 | -4.54 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2090 | 17.97 | 13.48 | -4.49 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2091 | 17.92 | 13.47 | -4.44 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2092 | 17.88 | 13.47 | -4.41 | — | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2093 | 17.85 | 13.47 | -4.39 | — | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2094 | 17.84 | 13.47 | -4.37 | — | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2095 | 17.84 | 13.47 | -4.37 | — | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2096 | 17.85 | 13.47 | -4.38 | — | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2097 | 17.87 | 13.47 | -4.40 | — | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2098 | 17.89 | 13.47 | -4.42 | — | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2099 | 17.93 | 13.48 | -4.45 | — | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2024-2098 | 17.19% | 13.79% | -3.39% | 2035 | -0.11% | -0.01% | 0.10% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2024 Trustees Report.