This section presents projections of the numbers of persons receiving federally administered SSI payments by category and age group.
1 The SSI recipient categories of: (1) aged; or (2)
blind or
disabled identify the criteria under which the recipient established eligibility for SSI payments, in addition to meeting other SSI eligibility requirements
. The following paragraphs discuss the recipient categories in more detail.
Figure IV.B1 presents historical and projected numbers of persons applying for SSI payments at SSA field offices by calendar year
3. Following a 4-year period in the mid-2000s when applications remained fairly level at 2.1 million per year, applications started increasing in 2008, largely due to the severe economic recession that began at the end of 2007 and continued into 2009. The level of applications, which continued to increase through 2010, decreased only slightly in 2011 as the economy recovered slowly but decreased at a faster rate from 2012 through 2014 as the economic recovery continued. In 2015, the number of applications decreased slightly from 2014, and we are projecting that applications in 2016 will continue to decrease from 2015 levels. In 2017, we project that applications will increase slightly to 2.0 million and remain roughly at that level in 2018, and then level off at about 2.1 million per year thereafter.
As part of SSA’s adjudication of these applications, we evaluate levels of income and resources available to the applicants as well as other eligibility factors including marital and citizenship status and living arrangements. In addition, well over 90 percent of the SSI applications are for disability payments that require the DDS to evaluate the alleged impairment. Applicants may appeal an unfavorable disability determination through several administrative levels of appeal. If an applicant exhausts all administrative levels of appeal, he or she may appeal to the Federal courts.
4Figure IV.B2 presents historical and projected numbers of persons who start receiving SSI payments as a result of this decision process
5. We count individuals as of the first month that they move into SSI payment status. For this reason, we refer to these individuals as “
new recipients” rather than “
awards.”
6 From 2004 to 2007, the numbers of new recipients remained fairly level, roughly consistent with the applications received during this period. Starting in 2008, however, the numbers of new recipients increased substantially. This increase is attributable to: (1) the sharp increase in applications due to the economic downturn; (2) improvements in claims processing; and (3) initiatives to accelerate the processing of cases pending adjudication.
Some persons receiving SSI payments in a year will stop receiving payments during the year because of death or the loss of SSI eligibility. SSA uses two primary tools to assess continuing eligibility: (1) a nonmedical redetermination; and (2) a medical continuing disability review (CDR).
7 In a redetermination, we reexamine the recipient's nonmedical factors of eligibility, including income and resources. In a medical CDR, we determine whether the recipient continues to meet the Social Security Act's definition of disability. For example, disabled children, upon attainment of age 18, lose eligibility if they do not qualify for payments under the disabled adult eligibility criteria. We refer to the net reduction in the number of SSI recipients in
current-payment status during a period as the number of SSI terminations for that period.
For purposes of presentation in the following figures, as well as the tables presented at the end of this section, we use the general label “terminations” to refer to the total of: (1) deaths while in current-payment status during the period; plus (2) the number of persons during the period moving out of payment status into suspended status less those returning to payment status from suspended status. Figure IV.B3 presents historical and projected numbers of total terminations by calendar year
8. The overall total number of terminations of federally administered recipients in 2015 decreased by about 1 percent from 2014. This decrease in total terminations differs by reason for termination. Terminations due to death increased by roughly 2 percent in 2015, reflecting the gradual aging of the recipient population, while the number of terminations for all other reasons decreased by about 3 percent in 2015. This decrease in terminations for all reasons other than death is primarily attributable to a decrease in the number of new SSI recipients concurrently eligible for OASDI disability benefits who received SSI payments only temporarily during the 5-month Social Security Disability Insurance waiting period.
The number of SSI recipients receiving Federal payments increased rapidly in the early 1990s due to the growth in the numbers of disabled adults and children. The growth in the numbers of children receiving SSI resulted in large part from the Supreme Court decision in the case of Sullivan v. Zebley, 110 S. Ct. 885 (1990), which greatly expanded the criteria used for determining disability for children. The growth in the numbers of disabled adults is a more complicated phenomenon. Extensive research conducted under contract to SSA and the Department of Health and Human Services suggested that this growth was the result of a combination of factors including: (1) demographic trends; (2) a downturn in the economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s; (3) long-term structural changes in the economy; and (4) changes in other support programs (in particular, the reduction or elimination of general assistance programs in certain States).
10,11 The 1996 welfare reform legislation, the economic downturn in the early 2000s, and the recent economic recession that began late in 2007 have contributed to the more recent changes in program participation.
As figure IV.B4 illustrates, the implementation of Public Law 104-121 and Public Law 104-193 resulted in a decline in the Federal recipient population from 1996 to 1997. From the end of 1997 through the end of 2000, the Federal SSI recipient population grew at an annual rate of less than 1 percent. From the end of 2000 to the end of 2008, the Federal SSI recipient population grew an average of 1.7 percent per year. From the end of 2008 to the end of 2012, the Federal recipient population grew an average of 2.7 percent per year due largely to the economic recession and the slow recovery from that economic downturn. In 2013, the Federal SSI recipient growth slowed to 1.3 percent, with much smaller growth in 2014. The Federal SSI recipient population decreased slightly in 2015, by roughly 0.2 percent relative to 2014, reflecting the lower numbers of applications and new recipients and the increased number of medical CDRs conducted in recent years. As the economy continues to recover, we project the numbers of Federal SSI recipients to grow more slowly at an average rate of less than 1 percent per year for the remainder of the 25-year projection period.
In order to place this projected growth in the context of overall population growth, figure IV.B5 presents Federal SSI prevalence rates by age group, defined as SSI recipients with Federal payments in current-payment status as percentages of selected Social Security area population totals.
12 We calculated the age group percentages using the corresponding population age group totals. We computed the ratios for the separate recipient categories—
total blind or disabled and
total aged—as percentages of differing base populations, the total Social Security area population and the 65 and older Social Security population, respectively. As a result of this method of calculation, the percentage for the total SSI recipient population is not the arithmetic sum of the percentages for the respective recipient categories.
Figure IV.B6 presents prevalence rates for the two eligibility categories -
blind and disabled and
aged - as well as for the SSI program as a whole. It also shows these rates on an age-sex-adjusted basis, adjusted to the age-sex distribution of the Social Security area population for the year 2000. Adjusting these rates in this manner is useful when comparing rates over a long period of time because the age-sex-adjusted rates control for the effects that a changing age-sex distribution in the population can have on prevalence rates over time. That adjustment, however, obviously does not account for the change over time of other factors that may affect the percentage of the Social Security area population that is SSI eligible.
Figure IV.B6 shows that the age-sex adjustment does not fundamentally change the overall pattern of the prevalence rates. The total SSI prevalence rate on an age-sex adjusted basis is higher before 2000 and lower after 2000 than the gross prevalence rate due to the changing age distribution of the total population. The adjustment generally results in a more noticeable effect for the aged, especially in the early years of the SSI program, because the prevalence rate for ages 75 and older was much higher than for ages 65 to 74.
The eligibility categories of Federal SSI recipients follow significantly different growth patterns in relation to their respective population totals. The overall aged prevalence rate has declined steadily throughout the historical period. We project that it will continue to decline gradually throughout the projection period. In contrast, except for decreases in the late 1990s due to the eligibility redeterminations and CDRs mandated by Public Law 104-193, the prevalence rate for blind or disabled children increased steadily through 2013, with the increase being quite steep in the early 1990s. The prevalence rate for child recipients decreased slightly in 2014 and 2015. The total blind or disabled prevalence rate (as a percentage of the total population at all ages) remained fairly level until the early 1980s, when it started increasing and then continued to increase through 1996. The blind or disabled prevalence rate declined slightly in the late 1990s due to the effects of welfare reform legislation but resumed its upward trend in 2000. That upward trend continued through 2013, but experienced slight decreases in each of 2014 and 2015. We estimate that the overall prevalence rate for blind or disabled recipients will gradually decline throughout the projection period due to: (1) the SSI-eligible population growing more slowly than the overall population, (2) a smaller proportion of the population becoming new recipients than during the recent economic slowdown; (3) the changing age distribution in the population; and (4) our assumption that SSA will receive the resources authorized to process medical CDR and nonmedical redetermination workloads in the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015.
13The total number of federally administered SSI recipients includes recipients only receiving a federally administered State supplement, as well as those receiving a Federal payment. Table IV.B8 presents historical and projected numbers of individuals who receive only a federally administered State supplement. Table
IV.B9 displays the combined numbers of persons receiving either a Federal SSI payment or a federally administered State supplement. This is the total number of SSI recipients, which follows largely the same patterns of growth as the number of recipients receiving a Federal payment.
