The Effects of Alternative Demographic and Economic Assumptions on MINT Simulations: A Sensitivity Analysis

by Patrick J. Purcell and Dave Shoffner
Research and Statistics Note No. 2014-03 (released April 2014)
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Life expectancy for males and females at birth and at age 65, 1950 and 2010
Year At birth At age 65
Male Female Male Female
1950 73.5 79.3 13.1 16.2
2010 82.0 86.0 18.6 20.7
SOURCE: Board of Trustees (2011, Table V.A4, 91, Cohort Life Expectancy, Intermediate).
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Retirement account balances in 2040 among all persons aged 65 or older, relative to the national average wage
Account balance percentile Account balance as a mulitple of national average wage Percentage change from baseline
High return Baseline Low return High return Low return
95th 16.7 14.7 12.9 13.5 -12.1
90th 10.4 9.2 8.3 12.3 -10.2
75th (top quartile) 4.5 4.1 3.7 9.3 -8.7
50th (median) 1.6 1.5 1.4 8.6 -7.2
25th (bottom quartile) 0.5 0.5 0.4 7.3 -6.4
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.6 -5.9
5th <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 6.0 -10.0
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 6.
Table equivalent for Chart 4. Retirement account balances in 2040 among persons aged 65 to 69, relative to the national average wage
Account balance percentile Account balance as a mulitple of national average wage Percentage change from baseline
High return Baseline Low return High return Low return
95th 25.3 20.5 16.8 23.7 -17.8
90th 14.7 12.0 10.1 22.8 -15.2
75th (top quartile) 5.9 4.9 4.2 20.1 -14.6
50th (median) 2.0 1.8 1.5 16.4 -12.7
25th (bottom quartile) 0.6 0.5 0.4 18.2 -11.4
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 18.9 -9.8
5th <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 13.6 -15.9
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 6.