Social Security Trust Fund Cash Flows and Reserves

by David Pattison
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 75, No. 1, 2015
Table equivalent for Chart 1. OASDI trust fund cash flows as percentages of GDP, 1980–2040
Year Primary income Interest income Total income Expenditures Surplus (or deficit)
1980 4.3 0.1 4.4 4.5 -0.1
1981 4.6 0.1 4.7 4.8 -0.1
1982 4.4 0.0 4.5 4.8 -0.4
1983 4.5 0.2 4.8 4.8 0.0
1984 4.7 0.1 4.8 4.7 0.2
1985 4.8 0.1 4.9 4.6 0.3
1986 4.8 0.1 4.9 4.5 0.3
1987 4.7 0.1 4.9 4.4 0.5
1988 5.0 0.2 5.2 4.4 0.8
1989 5.1 0.2 5.4 4.4 1.0
1990 5.2 0.3 5.5 4.4 1.1
1991 5.1 0.4 5.5 4.5 0.9
1992 5.0 0.4 5.4 4.6 0.8
1993 4.9 0.4 5.3 4.6 0.7
1994 4.9 0.4 5.4 4.5 0.8
1995 4.9 0.5 5.3 4.5 0.8
1996 4.9 0.5 5.3 4.5 0.9
1997 4.9 0.5 5.5 4.4 1.1
1998 5.0 0.6 5.5 4.3 1.2
1999 5.1 0.6 5.7 4.2 1.4
2000 5.1 0.7 5.8 4.2 1.6
2001 5.1 0.7 5.9 4.3 1.6
2002 5.1 0.7 5.8 4.3 1.5
2003 4.8 0.8 5.6 4.2 1.4
2004 4.8 0.8 5.6 4.2 1.3
2005 4.9 0.8 5.7 4.3 1.4
2006 5.0 0.8 5.8 4.3 1.5
2007 5.1 0.8 5.9 4.5 1.4
2008 5.0 0.8 5.8 4.5 1.3
2009 4.8 0.8 5.7 4.8 0.9
2010 4.5 0.8 5.3 4.8 0.5
2011 4.5 0.7 5.2 4.8 0.4
2012 4.6 0.7 5.2 4.9 0.3
2013 4.5 0.6 5.1 4.9 0.2
2014 4.5 0.6 5.0 4.9 0.1
2015 4.6 0.5 5.1 4.9 0.2
2016 4.6 0.5 5.1 5.0 0.1
2017 4.6 0.5 5.1 5.0 0.1
2018 4.7 0.5 5.2 5.1 0.1
2019 4.7 0.5 5.2 5.2 0.0
2020 4.7 0.5 5.2 5.2 0.0
2021 4.8 0.4 5.2 5.3 -0.1
2022 4.8 0.4 5.2 5.4 -0.2
2023 4.8 0.4 5.2 5.5 -0.3
2024 4.7 0.4 5.1 5.6 -0.4
2025 4.7 0.4 5.1 5.6 -0.5
2026 4.7 0.4 5.1 5.7 -0.6
2027 4.7 0.3 5.1 5.8 -0.7
2028 4.7 0.3 5.0 5.8 -0.8
2029 4.7 0.3 5.0 5.9 -0.9
2030 4.7 0.2 4.9 5.9 -1.1
2031 4.7 0.1 4.8 6.0 -1.2
2032 4.7 0.0 4.7 6.0 -1.3
2033 4.7 0.0 4.7 4.8 -0.1
2034 4.7 0.0 4.7 4.7 0.0
2035 4.7 0.0 4.7 4.7 0.0
2036 4.7 0.0 4.7 4.7 0.0
2037 4.6 0.0 4.6 4.6 0.0
2038 4.6 0.0 4.6 4.6 0.0
2039 4.6 0.0 4.6 4.6 0.0
2040 4.6 0.0 4.6 4.6 0.0
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on SSA (2013, Table 4.A1) and Board of Trustees (2014).
Table equivalent for Chart 2. OASDI trust fund reserves and expenditures under six alternative measures, 1980–2040
Year Reserves Expenditures
  Panel A: In trillions of nominal dollars
1980 0.0 0.1
1981 0.0 0.1
1982 0.0 0.2
1983 0.0 0.2
1984 0.0 0.2
1985 0.0 0.2
1986 0.0 0.2
1987 0.1 0.2
1988 0.1 0.2
1989 0.2 0.2
1990 0.2 0.3
1991 0.3 0.3
1992 0.3 0.3
1993 0.4 0.3
1994 0.4 0.3
1995 0.5 0.3
1996 0.6 0.4
1997 0.7 0.4
1998 0.8 0.4
1999 0.9 0.4
2000 1.0 0.4
2001 1.2 0.4
2002 1.4 0.5
2003 1.5 0.5
2004 1.7 0.5
2005 1.9 0.5
2006 2.0 0.6
2007 2.2 0.6
2008 2.4 0.6
2009 2.5 0.7
2010 2.6 0.7
2011 2.7 0.7
2012 2.7 0.8
2013 2.8 0.8
2014 2.8 0.9
2015 2.8 0.9
2016 2.8 1.0
2017 2.9 1.0
2018 2.9 1.1
2019 2.9 1.2
2020 2.9 1.2
2021 2.8 1.3
2022 2.8 1.4
2023 2.7 1.5
2024 2.6 1.6
2025 2.4 1.7
2026 2.2 1.8
2027 2.0 1.9
2028 1.7 2.0
2029 1.4 2.1
2030 1.0 2.2
2031 0.6 2.3
2032 0.0 2.4
2033 0.0 2.0
2034 0.0 2.1
2035 0.0 2.2
2036 0.0 2.3
2037 0.0 2.4
2038 0.0 2.5
2039 0.0 2.6
2040 0.0 2.7
  Panel B: In trillions of wage-adjusted dollars
1980 0.1 0.4
1981 0.1 0.5
1982 0.1 0.5
1983 0.1 0.5
1984 0.1 0.5
1985 0.1 0.5
1986 0.1 0.5
1987 0.2 0.5
1988 0.3 0.5
1989 0.4 0.5
1990 0.5 0.5
1991 0.6 0.6
1992 0.7 0.6
1993 0.7 0.6
1994 0.8 0.6
1995 0.9 0.6
1996 1.0 0.6
1997 1.1 0.6
1998 1.2 0.6
1999 1.3 0.6
2000 1.5 0.6
2001 1.7 0.6
2002 1.9 0.6
2003 2.0 0.6
2004 2.1 0.6
2005 2.2 0.6
2006 2.4 0.6
2007 2.5 0.7
2008 2.8 0.7
2009 2.9 0.8
2010 2.8 0.8
2011 2.8 0.8
2012 2.8 0.8
2013 2.8 0.8
2014 2.7 0.8
2015 2.6 0.8
2016 2.5 0.8
2017 2.4 0.8
2018 2.3 0.9
2019 2.2 0.9
2020 2.1 0.9
2021 2.0 0.9
2022 1.9 0.9
2023 1.8 1.0
2024 1.6 1.0
2025 1.5 1.0
2026 1.3 1.0
2027 1.1 1.1
2028 0.9 1.1
2029 0.7 1.1
2030 0.5 1.1
2031 0.3 1.1
2032 0.0 1.1
2033 0.0 0.9
2034 0.0 0.9
2035 0.0 0.9
2036 0.0 0.9
2037 0.0 0.9
2038 0.0 0.9
2039 0.0 0.9
2040 0.0 0.9
  Panel C: In trillions of present-value dollars
1980 0.2 1.0
1981 0.2 1.1
1982 0.2 1.0
1983 0.1 1.0
1984 0.2 0.9
1985 0.2 0.9
1986 0.2 0.9
1987 0.3 0.8
1988 0.4 0.8
1989 0.5 0.8
1990 0.7 0.8
1991 0.8 0.8
1992 0.9 0.8
1993 0.9 0.8
1994 1.0 0.7
1995 1.1 0.7
1996 1.2 0.7
1997 1.2 0.7
1998 1.4 0.7
1999 1.5 0.7
2000 1.7 0.7
2001 1.8 0.7
2002 2.0 0.7
2003 2.1 0.7
2004 2.2 0.7
2005 2.4 0.7
2006 2.5 0.7
2007 2.6 0.7
2008 2.7 0.7
2009 2.8 0.7
2010 2.8 0.8
2011 2.8 0.8
2012 2.8 0.8
2013 2.8 0.8
2014 2.7 0.8
2015 2.6 0.9
2016 2.5 0.9
2017 2.5 0.9
2018 2.3 0.9
2019 2.2 0.9
2020 2.1 0.9
2021 2.0 0.9
2022 1.8 0.9
2023 1.7 0.9
2024 1.5 0.9
2025 1.4 0.9
2026 1.2 0.9
2027 1.0 0.9
2028 0.8 0.9
2029 0.6 0.9
2030 0.4 0.9
2031 0.2 0.9
2032 0.0 0.9
2033 0.0 0.7
2034 0.0 0.7
2035 0.0 0.7
2036 0.0 0.7
2037 0.0 0.7
2038 0.0 0.7
2039 0.0 0.7
2040 0.0 0.7
  Panel D: As percentages of GDP
1980 0.9 4.1
1981 0.7 4.4
1982 0.7 4.5
1983 0.6 4.4
1984 0.7 4.3
1985 0.9 4.3
1986 1.0 4.2
1987 1.4 4.1
1988 2.0 4.1
1989 2.9 4.1
1990 3.7 4.2
1991 4.4 4.3
1992 4.9 4.3
1993 5.3 4.3
1994 5.8 4.3
1995 6.3 4.3
1996 6.8 4.2
1997 7.4 4.2
1998 8.2 4.1
1999 9.1 4.0
2000 10.2 4.0
2001 11.2 4.1
2002 12.2 4.1
2003 13.0 4.1
2004 13.7 4.1
2005 14.5 4.1
2006 15.4 4.2
2007 16.2 4.3
2008 16.9 4.4
2009 17.1 4.6
2010 16.9 4.6
2011 16.7 4.6
2012 16.3 4.7
2013 15.8 4.7
2014 15.1 4.7
2015 14.5 4.7
2016 13.9 4.7
2017 13.4 4.8
2018 12.8 4.8
2019 12.2 4.9
2020 11.6 5.0
2021 11.0 5.1
2022 10.3 5.1
2023 9.5 5.2
2024 8.7 5.3
2025 7.8 5.4
2026 6.9 5.5
2027 5.9 5.5
2028 4.9 5.6
2029 3.8 5.6
2030 2.6 5.7
2031 1.4 5.7
2032 0.1 5.7
2033 0.0 4.6
2034 0.0 4.5
2035 0.0 4.5
2036 0.0 4.4
2037 0.0 4.4
2038 0.0 4.4
2039 0.0 4.4
2040 0.0 4.4
  Panel E: As percentages of taxable payroll
1980 2.1 9.9
1981 1.8 10.6
1982 1.7 10.8
1983 1.6 10.7
1984 1.8 10.5
1985 2.3 10.4
1986 2.4 10.4
1987 3.3 10.1
1988 5.0 10.2
1989 7.1 10.3
1990 9.3 10.4
1991 11.0 10.7
1992 12.3 10.8
1993 13.3 10.9
1994 14.6 10.8
1995 15.7 10.7
1996 17.0 10.6
1997 18.7 10.5
1998 20.6 10.3
1999 23.1 10.1
2000 25.9 10.2
2001 28.7 10.4
2002 31.4 10.5
2003 33.7 10.5
2004 35.9 10.7
2005 38.3 10.9
2006 40.9 11.1
2007 43.5 11.5
2008 45.6 11.8
2009 46.5 12.5
2010 46.1 12.6
2011 45.6 12.5
2012 44.6 12.8
2013 43.0 12.8
2014 41.2 12.8
2015 39.6 12.8
2016 37.8 12.9
2017 36.1 12.9
2018 34.5 13.1
2019 32.9 13.2
2020 31.2 13.4
2021 29.4 13.6
2022 27.6 13.8
2023 25.5 14.1
2024 23.4 14.3
2025 21.1 14.5
2026 18.6 14.7
2027 16.0 14.9
2028 13.2 15.1
2029 10.2 15.3
2030 7.1 15.4
2031 3.7 15.5
2032 0.3 15.6
2033 0.0 12.5
2034 0.0 12.2
2035 0.0 12.2
2036 0.0 12.2
2037 0.0 12.2
2038 0.0 12.2
2039 0.0 12.2
2040 0.0 12.2
  Panel F: As percentages of trust fund expenditures
1980 21.5 100.0
1981 17.0 100.0
1982 15.5 100.0
1983 14.5 100.0
1984 17.2 100.0
1985 22.1 100.0
1986 23.3 100.0
1987 32.9 100.0
1988 49.3 100.0
1989 69.0 100.0
1990 89.0 100.0
1991 102.4 100.0
1992 113.6 100.0
1993 122.5 100.0
1994 135.1 100.0
1995 146.0 100.0
1996 160.4 100.0
1997 177.6 100.0
1998 199.5 100.0
1999 228.1 100.0
2000 252.8 100.0
2001 276.3 100.0
2002 298.5 100.0
2003 319.5 100.0
2004 336.3 100.0
2005 350.8 100.0
2006 368.8 100.0
2007 376.5 100.0
2008 386.9 100.0
2009 370.4 100.0
2010 366.2 100.0
2011 363.8 100.0
2012 347.7 100.0
2013 335.9 100.0
2014 322.5 100.0
2015 309.1 100.0
2016 294.2 100.0
2017 279.2 100.0
2018 264.0 100.0
2019 248.4 100.0
2020 232.2 100.0
2021 216.3 100.0
2022 199.5 100.0
2023 181.7 100.0
2024 163.7 100.0
2025 145.2 100.0
2026 126.4 100.0
2027 107.1 100.0
2028 87.4 100.0
2029 66.9 100.0
2030 45.8 100.0
2031 24.1 100.0
2032 1.8 100.0
2033 0.0 100.0
2034 0.0 100.0
2035 0.0 100.0
2036 0.0 100.0
2037 0.0 100.0
2038 0.0 100.0
2039 0.0 100.0
2040 0.0 100.0
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on SSA (2013, Table 4.A1) and Board of Trustees (2014).
NOTE: See Appendix A for additional information on data sources and adjustments.
Table equivalent for Chart 3. OASDI trust fund and general account of the Treasury: Total and primary annual surplus or deficit as a percentage of GDP, FYs 1979–2013
Fiscal year General account (total) General account (primary) OASDI (primary) OASDI (total)
1979 -1.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.1
1980 -2.6 -0.6 -0.1 0.0
1981 -2.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
1982 -3.6 -1.0 -0.3 -0.2
1983 -5.9 -3.3 0.0 0.0
1984 -4.7 -1.8 -0.1 0.0
1985 -5.2 -2.1 0.1 0.2
1986 -5.2 -2.2 0.3 0.4
1987 -3.5 -0.5 0.3 0.4
1988 -3.8 -0.7 0.6 0.8
1989 -3.7 -0.4 0.7 0.9
1990 -4.7 -1.3 0.7 1.0
1991 -5.3 -1.8 0.5 0.9
1992 -5.3 -1.8 0.4 0.8
1993 -4.4 -1.1 0.3 0.7
1994 -3.6 -0.4 0.4 0.8
1995 -3.0 0.5 0.4 0.8
1996 -2.2 1.3 0.4 0.8
1997 -1.2 2.1 0.5 1.0
1998 -0.3 2.9 0.6 1.1
1999 0.0 3.0 0.8 1.3
2000 0.8 3.6 0.9 1.5
2001 -0.3 2.3 0.9 1.5
2002 -2.9 -0.6 0.8 1.5
2003 -4.7 -2.6 0.6 1.4
2004 -4.7 -2.6 0.5 1.2
2005 -3.8 -1.7 0.6 1.3
2006 -3.2 -0.8 0.6 1.4
2007 -2.4 0.0 0.6 1.3
2008 -4.4 -1.9 0.5 1.3
2009 -10.8 -8.6 0.1 1.0
2010 -9.3 -7.2 -0.2 0.6
2011 -8.9 -6.6 -0.3 0.4
2012 -7.2 -5.1 -0.3 0.4
2013 -4.3 -2.4 -0.4 0.2
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on OMB 2014(b).
Table equivalent for Chart B-1. Monthly OASDI trust fund reserve levels, 2007–2013 (in billions of dollars)
Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
January 2,067 2,258 2,435 2,554 2,619 2,689 2,739
February 2,070 2,261 2,434 2,546 2,611 2,680 2,728
March 2,081 2,268 2,437 2,539 2,606 2,679 2,728
April 2,106 2,293 2,457 2,557 2,621 2,695 2,745
May 2,110 2,296 2,456 2,552 2,615 2,688 2,736
June 2,169 2,360 2,514 2,604 2,669 2,740 2,783
July 2,174 2,363 2,514 2,601 2,665 2,735 2,776
August 2,175 2,363 2,508 2,593 2,656 2,724 2,764
September 2,181 2,366 2,504 2,585 2,653 2,718 2,756
October 2,182 2,366 2,499 2,579 2,647 2,709 2,742
November 2,182 2,366 2,493 2,571 2,637 2,697 2,728
December 2,239 2,419 2,540 2,609 2,678 2,732 2,764
SOURCE: SSA (n.d. b).