Exits from the Disability Insurance Rolls: Estimates from a Competing-Risks Model

by Lakshmi K. Raut
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 77 No. 3, 2017
Table equivalent for Chart 1. DI enrollments and beneficiaries on the rolls, by sex: 1986–2009 (in millions)
Year Men on the rolls Women on the rolls Male enrollments Female enrollments
1986 1.82 0.90 0.28 0.14
1987 1.85 0.93 0.28 0.14
1988 1.87 0.95 0.27 0.14
1989 1.90 0.99 0.28 0.15
1990 1.96 1.04 0.30 0.17
1991 2.06 1.13 0.34 0.20
1992 2.22 1.25 0.40 0.24
1993 2.35 1.37 0.39 0.24
1994 2.47 1.49 0.38 0.25
1995 2.56 1.62 0.38 0.27
1996 2.64 1.74 0.36 0.27
1997 2.66 1.84 0.33 0.26
1998 2.73 1.96 0.33 0.28
1999 2.79 2.08 0.34 0.28
2000 2.85 2.18 0.34 0.28
2001 2.95 2.32 0.37 0.32
2002 3.07 2.47 0.41 0.34
2003 3.22 2.65 0.42 0.36
2004 3.37 2.82 0.43 0.37
2005 3.52 3.00 0.44 0.39
2006 3.64 3.16 0.43 0.38
2007 3.77 3.32 0.44 0.38
2008 3.92 3.50 0.47 0.42
2009 4.10 3.69 0.53 0.46
SOURCE: Zayatz (2011, Tables 3 and 6).
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Year-over-year percentage change in DI enrollment compared with unemployment rate for workers aged 16 or older, 1987–2009
Year DI enrollment (percentage change) Unemployment rate (percent)
1987 -1.08 6.2
1988 -1.18 5.5
1989 3.70 5.3
1990 9.62 5.6
1991 14.55 6.8
1992 18.73 7.5
1993 -0.73 6.9
1994 -0.87 6.1
1995 2.18 5.6
1996 -3.31 5.4
1997 -5.86 4.9
1998 3.52 4.5
1999 2.00 4.2
2000 0.12 4.0
2001 11.14 4.7
2002 8.62 5.8
2003 3.66 6.0
2004 2.36 5.5
2005 4.26 5.1
2006 -3.12 4.6
2007 1.82 4.6
2008 8.79 5.8
2009 10.57 9.3
SOURCES: Zayatz (2011, Table 3); Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Percentage distribution of DI enrollments by diagnosis type, 1986–2006
Year Musculoskeletal impairments Mental disorders Cardiovascular impairments Neoplasms Other diagnoses
1986 25.10 30.44 11.53 7.04 25.89
1987 20.47 22.40 12.37 11.74 33.02
1988 21.19 22.69 11.51 11.89 32.73
1989 21.54 22.64 11.83 11.37 32.62
1990 21.94 25.66 10.35 10.41 31.64
1991 20.69 25.46 10.96 9.77 33.12
1992 17.45 26.30 10.89 10.53 34.84
1993 18.46 24.46 11.23 11.05 34.80
1994 20.68 23.68 10.07 10.75 34.83
1995 23.10 23.34 8.79 10.37 34.39
1996 23.80 21.03 9.36 10.78 35.03
1997 20.75 22.07 9.15 12.23 35.80
1998 21.92 22.65 8.61 12.16 34.65
1999 22.90 22.72 9.40 11.70 33.27
2000 22.47 24.57 9.39 12.73 30.84
2001 21.40 27.10 10.05 11.46 30.00
2002 21.47 25.97 9.02 12.34 31.20
2003 22.72 25.64 8.70 12.28 30.67
2004 22.25 24.84 8.99 12.85 31.06
2005 24.31 23.54 8.28 12.82 31.04
2006 23.70 22.23 9.44 13.73 30.90
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on Social Security administrative records.: