Cohort-Specific Measures of Lifetime Social Security Taxes and Benefits

by Dean R. Leimer
ORES Working Paper No. 111 (released December 2007)
Table equivalent for Chart 1. OASI benefit award adjustment factor under the balanced budget award policy, by year
Year Benefit regime factor
2000 1.00000
2001 1.00000
2002 1.00000
2003 1.00000
2004 1.00000
2005 1.00000
2006 1.00000
2007 1.00000
2008 1.00000
2009 1.00000
2010 1.00000
2011 1.00000
2012 1.00000
2013 1.00000
2014 1.00000
2015 0.99111
2016 0.98230
2017 0.97356
2018 0.96491
2019 0.95633
2020 0.94783
2021 0.93940
2022 0.93105
2023 0.92277
2024 0.91457
2025 0.90547
2026 0.89646
2027 0.88754
2028 0.87870
2029 0.86996
2030 0.86130
2031 0.85273
2032 0.84425
2033 0.83585
2034 0.82753
2035 0.81980
2036 0.81215
2037 0.80457
2038 0.79706
2039 0.78961
2040 0.78224
2041 0.77494
2042 0.76770
2043 0.76054
2044 0.75344
2045 0.74826
2046 0.74312
2047 0.73802
2048 0.73295
2049 0.72791
2050 0.72291
2051 0.71795
2052 0.71301
2053 0.70812
2054 0.70325
2055 0.69896
2056 0.69469
2057 0.69045
2058 0.68624
2059 0.68205
2060 0.67789
2061 0.67375
2062 0.66964
2063 0.66555
2064 0.66149
2065 0.65798
2066 0.65450
2067 0.65103
2068 0.64758
2069 0.64415
2070 0.64073
2071 0.63734
2072 0.63396
2073 0.63060
2074 0.62726
2075 0.62524
2076 0.62322
2077 0.62121
2078 0.61921
2079 0.61721
2080 0.61522
2081 0.61444
2082 0.61016
2083 0.60780
2084 0.60650
2085 0.60585
2086 0.60550
2087 0.60537
2088 0.60540
2089 0.60494
2090 0.60430
2091 0.60356
2092 0.60257
2093 0.60152
2094 0.59979
2095 0.59800
2096 0.59617
2097 0.59430
2098 0.59244
2099 0.59059
2100 0.58876
2101 0.58698
2102 0.58526
2103 0.58361
2104 0.58205
2105 0.58058
2106 0.57922
2107 0.57796
2108 0.57680
2109 0.57572
2110 0.57471
2111 0.57376
2112 0.57288
2113 0.57203
2114 0.57118
2115 0.57035
2116 0.56951
2117 0.56869
2118 0.56783
2119 0.56693
2120 0.56597
2121 0.56495
2122 0.56389
2123 0.56276
2124 0.56158
2125 0.56033
2126 0.55906
2127 0.55774
2128 0.55644
2129 0.55513
2130 0.55386
2131 0.55263
2132 0.55142
2133 0.55026
2134 0.54915
2135 0.54809
2136 0.54707
2137 0.54608
2138 0.54511
2139 0.54415
2140 0.54317
2141 0.54233
2142 0.54162
2143 0.54079
2144 0.53995
2145 0.53909
2146 0.53833
2147 0.53764
2148 0.53676
2149 0.53587
2150 0.53496
2151 0.53403
2152 0.53310
2153 0.53215
2154 0.53121
2155 0.53027
2156 0.52932
2157 0.52839
2158 0.52746
2159 0.52654
2160 0.52564
2161 0.52476
2162 0.52389
2163 0.52305
2164 0.52221
2165 0.52140
2166 0.52060
2167 0.51981
2168 0.51903
2169 0.51825
2170 0.51748
2171 0.51672
2172 0.51596
2173 0.51521
2174 0.51445
2175 0.51369
2176 0.51293
2177 0.51217
2178 0.51141
2179 0.51065
2180 0.50989
2181 0.50912
2182 0.50836
2183 0.50760
2184 0.50685
2185 0.50609
2186 0.50535
2187 0.50461
2188 0.50388
2189 0.50314
2190 0.50243
2191 0.50171
2192 0.50101
2193 0.50031
2194 0.49961
2195 0.49893
2196 0.49824
2197 0.49757
2198 0.49689
2199 0.49623
2200 0.49556
2201 0.49487
2202 0.49418
2203 0.49349
2204 0.49280
2205 0.49211
2206 0.49142
2207 0.49073
2208 0.49004
2209 0.48935
2210 0.48867
2211 0.48798
2212 0.48730
2213 0.48662
2214 0.48594
2215 0.48527
2216 0.48459
2217 0.48393
2218 0.48326
2219 0.48261
2220 0.48195
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. OASI combined payroll tax rate, by policy and year
Year Present law or balanced budget
award [0.106 all years]		 Balanced budget tax
2001 0.10600 0.10600
2002 0.10600 0.10600
2003 0.10600 0.10600
2004 0.10600 0.10600
2005 0.10600 0.10600
2006 0.10600 0.10600
2007 0.10600 0.10600
2008 0.10600 0.10600
2009 0.10600 0.10600
2010 0.10600 0.10658
2011 0.10600 0.10716
2012 0.10600 0.10774
2013 0.10600 0.10832
2014 0.10600 0.10890
2015 0.10600 0.10948
2016 0.10600 0.11006
2017 0.10600 0.11063
2018 0.10600 0.11121
2019 0.10600 0.11179
2020 0.10600 0.11237
2021 0.10600 0.11295
2022 0.10600 0.11353
2023 0.10600 0.11411
2024 0.10600 0.11469
2025 0.10600 0.11527
2026 0.10600 0.11585
2027 0.10600 0.11643
2028 0.10600 0.11701
2029 0.10600 0.11759
2030 0.10600 0.11817
2031 0.10600 0.11875
2032 0.10600 0.11933
2033 0.10600 0.11990
2034 0.10600 0.12048
2035 0.10600 0.12106
2036 0.10600 0.12164
2037 0.10600 0.12222
2038 0.10600 0.12280
2039 0.10600 0.12338
2040 0.10600 0.12396
2041 0.10600 0.12454
2042 0.10600 0.12512
2043 0.10600 0.12570
2044 0.10600 0.12628
2045 0.10600 0.12686
2046 0.10600 0.12744
2047 0.10600 0.12802
2048 0.10600 0.12860
2049 0.10600 0.12917
2050 0.10600 0.13026
2051 0.10600 0.13135
2052 0.10600 0.13244
2053 0.10600 0.13353
2054 0.10600 0.13462
2055 0.10600 0.13571
2056 0.10600 0.13680
2057 0.10600 0.13789
2058 0.10600 0.13898
2059 0.10600 0.14007
2060 0.10600 0.14116
2061 0.10600 0.14225
2062 0.10600 0.14334
2063 0.10600 0.14443
2064 0.10600 0.14552
2065 0.10600 0.14661
2066 0.10600 0.14769
2067 0.10600 0.14878
2068 0.10600 0.14987
2069 0.10600 0.15096
2070 0.10600 0.15205
2071 0.10600 0.15314
2072 0.10600 0.15423
2073 0.10600 0.15532
2074 0.10600 0.15641
2075 0.10600 0.15750
2076 0.10600 0.15859
2077 0.10600 0.15968
2078 0.10600 0.16077
2079 0.10600 0.16186
2080 0.10600 0.16295
2081 0.10600 0.16404
2082 0.10600 0.16483
2083 0.10600 0.16560
2084 0.10600 0.16632
2085 0.10600 0.16701
2086 0.10600 0.16767
2087 0.10600 0.16829
2088 0.10600 0.16887
2089 0.10600 0.16943
2090 0.10600 0.16997
2091 0.10600 0.17048
2092 0.10600 0.17098
2093 0.10600 0.17146
2094 0.10600 0.17194
2095 0.10600 0.17242
2096 0.10600 0.17289
2097 0.10600 0.17335
2098 0.10600 0.17381
2099 0.10600 0.17427
2100 0.10600 0.17473
2101 0.10600 0.17518
2102 0.10600 0.17563
2103 0.10600 0.17607
2104 0.10600 0.17652
2105 0.10600 0.17696
2106 0.10600 0.17739
2107 0.10600 0.17782
2108 0.10600 0.17824
2109 0.10600 0.17866
2110 0.10600 0.17907
2111 0.10600 0.17947
2112 0.10600 0.17987
2113 0.10600 0.18026
2114 0.10600 0.18065
2115 0.10600 0.18103
2116 0.10600 0.18141
2117 0.10600 0.18178
2118 0.10600 0.18215
2119 0.10600 0.18251
2120 0.10600 0.18288
2121 0.10600 0.18324
2122 0.10600 0.18360
2123 0.10600 0.18396
2124 0.10600 0.18432
2125 0.10600 0.18468
2126 0.10600 0.18505
2127 0.10600 0.18541
2128 0.10600 0.18578
2129 0.10600 0.18615
2130 0.10600 0.18652
2131 0.10600 0.18689
2132 0.10600 0.18726
2133 0.10600 0.18763
2134 0.10600 0.18801
2135 0.10600 0.18837
2136 0.10600 0.18874
2137 0.10600 0.18911
2138 0.10600 0.18947
2139 0.10600 0.18984
2140 0.10600 0.19020
2141 0.10600 0.19056
2142 0.10600 0.19092
2143 0.10600 0.19127
2144 0.10600 0.19162
2145 0.10600 0.19197
2146 0.10600 0.19232
2147 0.10600 0.19266
2148 0.10600 0.19301
2149 0.10600 0.19335
2150 0.10600 0.19369
2151 0.10600 0.19403
2152 0.10600 0.19437
2153 0.10600 0.19471
2154 0.10600 0.19505
2155 0.10600 0.19539
2156 0.10600 0.19573
2157 0.10600 0.19607
2158 0.10600 0.19641
2159 0.10600 0.19675
2160 0.10600 0.19708
2161 0.10600 0.19742
2162 0.10600 0.19775
2163 0.10600 0.19809
2164 0.10600 0.19842
2165 0.10600 0.19875
2166 0.10600 0.19908
2167 0.10600 0.19940
2168 0.10600 0.19973
2169 0.10600 0.20005
2170 0.10600 0.20038
2171 0.10600 0.20070
2172 0.10600 0.20102
2173 0.10600 0.20134
2174 0.10600 0.20165
2175 0.10600 0.20197
2176 0.10600 0.20229
2177 0.10600 0.20260
2178 0.10600 0.20292
2179 0.10600 0.20323
2180 0.10600 0.20355
2181 0.10600 0.20386
2182 0.10600 0.20417
2183 0.10600 0.20448
2184 0.10600 0.20480
2185 0.10600 0.20511
2186 0.10600 0.20542
2187 0.10600 0.20572
2188 0.10600 0.20603
2189 0.10600 0.20634
2190 0.10600 0.20665
2191 0.10600 0.20695
2192 0.10600 0.20726
2193 0.10600 0.20756
2194 0.10600 0.20786
2195 0.10600 0.20817
2196 0.10600 0.20847
2197 0.10600 0.20877
2198 0.10600 0.20907
2199 0.10600 0.20936
2200 0.10600 0.20966
2201 0.10600 0.20996
2202 0.10600 0.21026
2203 0.10600 0.21055
2204 0.10600 0.21085
2205 0.10600 0.21114
2206 0.10600 0.21144
2207 0.10600 0.21174
2208 0.10600 0.21203
2209 0.10600 0.21233
2210 0.10600 0.21262
2211 0.10600 0.21292
2212 0.10600 0.21322
2213 0.10600 0.21351
2214 0.10600 0.21381
2215 0.10600 0.21410
2216 0.10600 0.21440
2217 0.10600 0.21469
2218 0.10600 0.21499
2219 0.10600 0.21528
2220 0.10600 0.21558
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 3. OASI real internal rate of return, expressed as a percent, by policy and cohort
Cohort Present law Balanced budget award Balanced budget tax
1901 10.868 10.868 10.868
1902 10.481 10.481 10.481
1903 10.329 10.329 10.329
1904 9.881 9.881 9.881
1905 9.444 9.444 9.444
1906 9.061 9.061 9.061
1907 8.950 8.950 8.950
1908 8.583 8.583 8.583
1909 8.170 8.170 8.170
1910 7.918 7.918 7.918
1911 7.827 7.827 7.827
1912 7.447 7.447 7.447
1913 7.319 7.319 7.319
1914 6.948 6.948 6.948
1915 6.820 6.820 6.820
1916 6.650 6.650 6.650
1917 6.333 6.333 6.333
1918 5.912 5.912 5.912
1919 5.578 5.578 5.578
1920 5.378 5.378 5.378
1921 5.098 5.098 5.098
1922 4.949 4.949 4.949
1923 4.748 4.748 4.748
1924 4.554 4.554 4.554
1925 4.453 4.453 4.453
1926 4.249 4.249 4.249
1927 4.114 4.114 4.114
1928 3.910 3.910 3.910
1929 3.735 3.734 3.734
1930 3.627 3.627 3.627
1931 3.546 3.546 3.546
1932 3.476 3.476 3.476
1933 3.259 3.259 3.259
1934 3.228 3.228 3.228
1935 3.068 3.068 3.068
1936 2.995 2.995 2.994
1937 3.127 3.127 3.127
1938 2.966 2.966 2.965
1939 2.946 2.946 2.945
1940 2.882 2.881 2.881
1941 2.837 2.836 2.835
1942 2.645 2.644 2.643
1943 2.653 2.652 2.651
1944 2.745 2.744 2.743
1945 2.717 2.715 2.714
1946 2.668 2.665 2.665
1947 2.621 2.617 2.617
1948 2.681 2.675 2.676
1949 2.743 2.728 2.737
1950 2.759 2.731 2.752
1951 2.711 2.668 2.702
1952 2.709 2.649 2.699
1953 2.745 2.657 2.733
1954 2.727 2.612 2.712
1955 2.686 2.542 2.668
1956 2.666 2.494 2.645
1957 2.643 2.441 2.618
1958 2.627 2.396 2.598
1959 2.580 2.317 2.546
1960 2.499 2.205 2.460
1961 2.528 2.204 2.485
1962 2.525 2.170 2.476
1963 2.549 2.162 2.493
1964 2.534 2.117 2.472
1965 2.541 2.092 2.471
1966 2.547 2.067 2.470
1967 2.550 2.037 2.463
1968 2.559 2.015 2.463
1969 2.541 1.968 2.437
1970 2.514 1.912 2.400
1971 2.527 1.894 2.403
1972 2.545 1.880 2.409
1973 2.529 1.837 2.383
1974 2.521 1.802 2.364
1975 2.513 1.766 2.344
1976 2.502 1.728 2.321
1977 2.495 1.694 2.302
1978 2.501 1.674 2.295
1979 2.501 1.649 2.282
1980 2.480 1.603 2.247
1981 2.491 1.590 2.244
1982 2.501 1.576 2.240
1983 2.519 1.571 2.241
1984 2.536 1.566 2.243
1985 2.546 1.555 2.237
1986 2.557 1.546 2.233
1987 2.567 1.535 2.227
1988 2.578 1.526 2.222
1989 2.584 1.513 2.212
1990 2.593 1.502 2.205
1991 2.602 1.493 2.198
1992 2.617 1.488 2.196
1993 2.632 1.485 2.194
1994 2.645 1.479 2.190
1995 2.652 1.469 2.180
1996 2.666 1.464 2.176
1997 2.677 1.457 2.170
1998 2.686 1.448 2.160
1999 2.698 1.442 2.154
2000 2.701 1.428 2.139
2001 2.713 1.422 2.131
2002 2.726 1.418 2.125
2003 2.738 1.414 2.117
2004 2.750 1.409 2.110
2005 2.761 1.404 2.101
2006 2.769 1.396 2.089
2007 2.781 1.392 2.081
2008 2.792 1.388 2.071
2009 2.800 1.382 2.058
2010 2.810 1.378 2.047
2011 2.818 1.374 2.034
2012 2.828 1.372 2.023
2013 2.837 1.371 2.010
2014 2.846 1.371 1.998
2015 2.855 1.367 1.986
2016 2.864 1.366 1.973
2017 2.872 1.365 1.960
2018 2.881 1.366 1.947
2019 2.889 1.368 1.934
2020 2.896 1.366 1.919
2021 2.903 1.368 1.905
2022 2.910 1.371 1.890
2023 2.916 1.375 1.876
2024 2.922 1.380 1.862
2025 2.929 1.383 1.847
2026 2.935 1.387 1.833
2027 2.941 1.388 1.819
2028 2.946 1.388 1.805
2029 2.952 1.387 1.791
2030 2.957 1.385 1.777
2031 2.962 1.383 1.764
2032 2.967 1.379 1.751
2033 2.973 1.376 1.739
2034 2.978 1.372 1.727
2035 2.983 1.368 1.716
2036 2.988 1.365 1.705
2037 2.993 1.362 1.694
2038 2.998 1.359 1.684
2039 3.003 1.356 1.675
2040 3.009 1.354 1.666
2041 3.013 1.352 1.657
2042 3.019 1.351 1.649
2043 3.024 1.350 1.641
2044 3.029 1.350 1.634
2045 3.034 1.350 1.627
2046 3.039 1.351 1.620
2047 3.045 1.351 1.614
2048 3.049 1.352 1.608
2049 3.054 1.353 1.602
2050 3.059 1.354 1.597
2051 3.064 1.355 1.592
2052 3.069 1.356 1.588
2053 3.074 1.356 1.583
2054 3.079 1.357 1.579
2055 3.084 1.358 1.576
2056 3.089 1.358 1.572
2057 3.094 1.358 1.569
2058 3.099 1.357 1.566
2059 3.103 1.356 1.563
2060 3.107 1.355 1.560
2061 3.112 1.354 1.558
2062 3.116 1.352 1.555
2063 3.121 1.350 1.553
2064 3.125 1.349 1.551
2065 3.130 1.347 1.549
2066 3.134 1.346 1.547
2067 3.139 1.345 1.546
2068 3.144 1.344 1.544
2069 3.149 1.343 1.543
2070 3.154 1.342 1.541
2071 3.159 1.342 1.540
2072 3.164 1.341 1.539
2073 3.169 1.341 1.537
2074 3.174 1.341 1.536
2075 3.179 1.342 1.535
2076 3.183 1.342 1.534
2077 3.188 1.342 1.533
2078 3.193 1.343 1.531
2079 3.198 1.343 1.531
2080 3.203 1.344 1.530
2081 3.207 1.345 1.529
2082 3.212 1.345 1.528
2083 3.217 1.346 1.527
2084 3.221 1.346 1.526
2085 3.226 1.346 1.524
2086 3.230 1.346 1.523
2087 3.235 1.346 1.522
2088 3.239 1.345 1.521
2089 3.243 1.345 1.520
2090 3.248 1.345 1.519
2091 3.252 1.344 1.519
2092 3.256 1.344 1.518
2093 3.261 1.343 1.517
2094 3.265 1.343 1.516
2095 3.269 1.343 1.515
2096 3.273 1.342 1.514
2097 3.278 1.342 1.513
2098 3.282 1.342 1.512
2099 3.286 1.342 1.511
2100 3.290 1.342 1.510
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 4. OASI lifetime benefit/tax ratio under the award adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 8.065 3.718 7.688 2.186
1902 7.683 3.546 7.262 2.168
1903 7.518 3.517 7.037 2.244
1904 7.074 3.323 6.552 2.163
1905 6.733 3.150 6.170 2.064
1906 6.392 3.001 5.784 1.985
1907 6.296 2.997 5.610 2.030
1908 5.906 2.840 5.185 1.935
1909 5.641 2.695 4.857 1.807
1910 5.471 2.622 4.612 1.714
1911 5.396 2.626 4.436 1.718
1912 5.102 2.485 4.077 1.574
1913 5.039 2.474 3.906 1.508
1914 4.718 2.326 3.531 1.357
1915 4.660 2.309 3.365 1.288
1916 4.535 2.263 3.147 1.210
1917 4.237 2.127 2.831 1.082
1918 3.919 1.958 2.497 0.927
1919 3.608 1.827 2.196 0.835
1920 3.492 1.771 2.027 0.754
1921 3.295 1.677 1.834 0.673
1922 3.225 1.643 1.722 0.619
1923 3.114 1.589 1.602 0.565
1924 3.004 1.534 1.494 0.519
1925 2.964 1.517 1.427 0.490
1926 2.853 1.460 1.331 0.447
1927 2.776 1.426 1.259 0.419
1928 2.664 1.368 1.173 0.387
1929 2.565 1.321 1.097 0.360
1930 2.501 1.294 1.049 0.344
1931 2.474 1.279 1.011 0.330
1932 2.442 1.264 0.980 0.318
1933 2.332 1.204 0.914 0.296
1934 2.329 1.203 0.898 0.295
1935 2.246 1.162 0.851 0.285
1936 2.217 1.149 0.826 0.284
1937 2.313 1.204 0.850 0.295
1938 2.228 1.165 0.805 0.284
1939 2.232 1.172 0.797 0.283
1940 2.203 1.164 0.778 0.279
1941 2.189 1.163 0.765 0.273
1942 2.097 1.115 0.720 0.255
1943 2.109 1.131 0.720 0.254
1944 2.157 1.174 0.739 0.260
1945 2.142 1.177 0.732 0.256
1946 2.123 1.174 0.719 0.243
1947 2.102 1.171 0.709 0.235
1948 2.135 1.202 0.723 0.236
1949 2.164 1.230 0.736 0.239
1950 2.167 1.242 0.739 0.237
1951 2.136 1.230 0.728 0.233
1952 2.126 1.233 0.728 0.234
1953 2.128 1.245 0.735 0.241
1954 2.105 1.239 0.730 0.244
1955 2.065 1.224 0.723 0.248
1956 2.035 1.216 0.721 0.260
1957 2.002 1.206 0.720 0.277
1958 1.978 1.199 0.720 0.290
1959 1.936 1.181 0.715 0.301
1960 1.883 1.152 0.701 0.310
1961 1.880 1.159 0.713 0.332
1962 1.865 1.156 0.717 0.345
1963 1.858 1.161 0.727 0.364
1964 1.839 1.153 0.727 0.379
1965 1.826 1.152 0.732 0.399
1966 1.813 1.150 0.737 0.418
1967 1.795 1.146 0.739 0.434
1968 1.783 1.145 0.741 0.443
1969 1.763 1.135 0.735 0.443
1970 1.737 1.122 0.728 0.446
1971 1.729 1.121 0.727 0.444
1972 1.722 1.122 0.727 0.440
1973 1.703 1.113 0.719 0.428
1974 1.689 1.106 0.712 0.417
1975 1.673 1.099 0.705 0.405
1976 1.656 1.090 0.697 0.392
1977 1.642 1.083 0.690 0.382
1978 1.633 1.080 0.686 0.366
1979 1.623 1.075 0.679 0.348
1980 1.603 1.063 0.670 0.331
1981 1.597 1.061 0.666 0.316
1982 1.591 1.059 0.663 0.304
1983 1.589 1.059 0.662 0.298
1984 1.586 1.059 0.662 0.296
1985 1.581 1.057 0.659 0.294
1986 1.578 1.056 0.657 0.288
1987 1.574 1.054 0.654 0.284
1988 1.570 1.052 0.652 0.283
1989 1.564 1.049 0.649 0.279
1990 1.560 1.047 0.646 0.277
1991 1.557 1.045 0.644 0.273
1992 1.555 1.045 0.643 0.273
1993 1.554 1.045 0.641 0.271
1994 1.552 1.044 0.640 0.270
1995 1.548 1.042 0.638 0.269
1996 1.546 1.042 0.636 0.268
1997 1.543 1.041 0.635 0.268
1998 1.540 1.039 0.633 0.268
1999 1.537 1.039 0.632 0.268
2000 1.531 1.035 0.629 0.268
2001 1.529 1.035 0.628 0.268
2002 1.527 1.034 0.627 0.268
2003 1.525 1.034 0.626 0.268
2004 1.523 1.034 0.626 0.268
2005 1.521 1.033 0.625 0.268
2006 1.518 1.032 0.623 0.268
2007 1.516 1.031 0.622 0.269
2008 1.515 1.031 0.622 0.269
2009 1.512 1.030 0.620 0.269
2010 1.511 1.030 0.620 0.269
2011 1.510 1.029 0.619 0.269
2012 1.509 1.029 0.618 0.268
2013 1.509 1.030 0.618 0.268
2014 1.509 1.030 0.618 0.268
2015 1.508 1.030 0.617 0.268
2016 1.508 1.030 0.617 0.267
2017 1.508 1.030 0.616 0.267
2018 1.509 1.031 0.616 0.266
2019 1.510 1.032 0.616 0.266
2020 1.510 1.032 0.615 0.264
2021 1.511 1.032 0.615 0.263
2022 1.514 1.034 0.615 0.262
2023 1.516 1.035 0.616 0.261
2024 1.518 1.037 0.616 0.260
2025 1.521 1.038 0.616 0.259
2026 1.523 1.040 0.616 0.258
2027 1.524 1.040 0.616 0.257
2028 1.525 1.040 0.616 0.256
2029 1.525 1.040 0.615 0.255
2030 1.525 1.040 0.614 0.253
2031 1.524 1.039 0.614 0.252
2032 1.523 1.038 0.613 0.251
2033 1.522 1.037 0.612 0.249
2034 1.521 1.036 0.610 0.248
2035 1.520 1.035 0.609 0.246
2036 1.519 1.034 0.608 0.245
2037 1.518 1.033 0.607 0.244
2038 1.517 1.032 0.606 0.242
2039 1.516 1.031 0.605 0.241
2040 1.516 1.031 0.605 0.240
2041 1.516 1.030 0.604 0.239
2042 1.516 1.030 0.603 0.238
2043 1.516 1.030 0.603 0.237
2044 1.516 1.030 0.602 0.236
2045 1.517 1.030 0.602 0.235
2046 1.518 1.030 0.602 0.234
2047 1.518 1.030 0.602 0.233
2048 1.519 1.030 0.601 0.232
2049 1.520 1.031 0.601 0.231
2050 1.521 1.031 0.601 0.231
2051 1.522 1.031 0.601 0.230
2052 1.523 1.032 0.601 0.229
2053 1.524 1.032 0.601 0.228
2054 1.524 1.032 0.601 0.228
2055 1.525 1.032 0.600 0.227
2056 1.526 1.032 0.600 0.226
2057 1.526 1.032 0.600 0.226
2058 1.526 1.032 0.600 0.225
2059 1.526 1.032 0.599 0.224
2060 1.526 1.032 0.599 0.224
2061 1.526 1.031 0.598 0.223
2062 1.526 1.031 0.597 0.222
2063 1.525 1.030 0.597 0.221
2064 1.525 1.030 0.596 0.221
2065 1.524 1.029 0.596 0.220
2066 1.524 1.029 0.595 0.220
2067 1.524 1.028 0.595 0.219
2068 1.524 1.028 0.595 0.219
2069 1.524 1.028 0.594 0.219
2070 1.524 1.027 0.594 0.218
2071 1.524 1.027 0.594 0.218
2072 1.524 1.027 0.594 0.218
2073 1.524 1.027 0.593 0.218
2074 1.525 1.027 0.593 0.217
2075 1.525 1.027 0.593 0.217
2076 1.526 1.027 0.593 0.217
2077 1.526 1.028 0.593 0.217
2078 1.527 1.028 0.593 0.217
2079 1.527 1.028 0.593 0.217
2080 1.528 1.028 0.593 0.217
2081 1.529 1.028 0.593 0.217
2082 1.529 1.029 0.593 0.217
2083 1.530 1.029 0.593 0.217
2084 1.530 1.029 0.593 0.217
2085 1.531 1.029 0.593 0.216
2086 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216
2087 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216
2088 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216
2089 1.531 1.029 0.592 0.216
2090 1.531 1.028 0.592 0.216
2091 1.531 1.028 0.592 0.216
2092 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.216
2093 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.215
2094 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.215
2095 1.532 1.028 0.591 0.215
2096 1.532 1.028 0.590 0.215
2097 1.532 1.028 0.590 0.215
2098 1.533 1.028 0.590 0.215
2099 1.533 1.028 0.590 0.215
2100 1.533 1.028 0.590 0.214
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 5. OASI lifetime benefit/tax ratio under the tax adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 8.065 3.718 7.688 2.186
1902 7.683 3.546 7.262 2.168
1903 7.518 3.517 7.037 2.244
1904 7.074 3.323 6.552 2.163
1905 6.733 3.150 6.170 2.064
1906 6.392 3.001 5.784 1.985
1907 6.296 2.997 5.610 2.030
1908 5.906 2.840 5.185 1.935
1909 5.641 2.695 4.857 1.807
1910 5.471 2.622 4.612 1.714
1911 5.396 2.626 4.436 1.718
1912 5.102 2.485 4.077 1.574
1913 5.039 2.474 3.906 1.508
1914 4.718 2.326 3.531 1.357
1915 4.660 2.309 3.365 1.288
1916 4.535 2.263 3.147 1.210
1917 4.237 2.127 2.831 1.082
1918 3.919 1.958 2.497 0.927
1919 3.608 1.827 2.196 0.835
1920 3.492 1.771 2.027 0.754
1921 3.295 1.677 1.834 0.673
1922 3.225 1.643 1.722 0.619
1923 3.114 1.589 1.602 0.565
1924 3.004 1.534 1.494 0.519
1925 2.964 1.517 1.427 0.490
1926 2.853 1.460 1.331 0.447
1927 2.775 1.426 1.259 0.419
1928 2.664 1.368 1.173 0.387
1929 2.565 1.321 1.097 0.360
1930 2.501 1.294 1.049 0.344
1931 2.474 1.279 1.011 0.330
1932 2.441 1.264 0.980 0.318
1933 2.332 1.204 0.914 0.296
1934 2.329 1.203 0.898 0.295
1935 2.245 1.162 0.851 0.285
1936 2.217 1.149 0.826 0.284
1937 2.313 1.204 0.850 0.295
1938 2.227 1.165 0.805 0.284
1939 2.231 1.171 0.797 0.283
1940 2.202 1.164 0.778 0.279
1941 2.188 1.163 0.765 0.273
1942 2.095 1.115 0.720 0.255
1943 2.107 1.131 0.720 0.254
1944 2.154 1.173 0.738 0.260
1945 2.140 1.177 0.731 0.256
1946 2.120 1.174 0.720 0.243
1947 2.100 1.170 0.709 0.235
1948 2.133 1.202 0.723 0.236
1949 2.166 1.233 0.738 0.239
1950 2.176 1.249 0.744 0.238
1951 2.153 1.241 0.736 0.235
1952 2.152 1.250 0.738 0.237
1953 2.169 1.272 0.751 0.245
1954 2.160 1.274 0.752 0.248
1955 2.133 1.268 0.749 0.254
1956 2.117 1.268 0.753 0.266
1957 2.096 1.267 0.757 0.285
1958 2.084 1.269 0.763 0.299
1959 2.056 1.260 0.762 0.312
1960 2.014 1.239 0.754 0.322
1961 2.024 1.255 0.772 0.346
1962 2.021 1.260 0.781 0.360
1963 2.027 1.274 0.797 0.381
1964 2.020 1.274 0.802 0.397
1965 2.018 1.282 0.814 0.419
1966 2.016 1.288 0.823 0.439
1967 2.008 1.291 0.831 0.457
1968 2.005 1.298 0.838 0.468
1969 1.995 1.294 0.837 0.469
1970 1.977 1.287 0.833 0.473
1971 1.979 1.294 0.837 0.472
1972 1.980 1.302 0.842 0.470
1973 1.969 1.298 0.838 0.459
1974 1.961 1.297 0.835 0.449
1975 1.952 1.295 0.831 0.438
1976 1.941 1.291 0.826 0.426
1977 1.933 1.289 0.822 0.417
1978 1.930 1.290 0.820 0.402
1979 1.925 1.289 0.816 0.385
1980 1.908 1.280 0.808 0.368
1981 1.907 1.281 0.807 0.354
1982 1.905 1.282 0.806 0.343
1983 1.905 1.285 0.806 0.337
1984 1.905 1.287 0.807 0.336
1985 1.902 1.287 0.805 0.333
1986 1.901 1.287 0.804 0.328
1987 1.899 1.287 0.802 0.324
1988 1.897 1.287 0.801 0.322
1989 1.893 1.285 0.798 0.319
1990 1.890 1.284 0.795 0.316
1991 1.888 1.283 0.793 0.313
1992 1.887 1.284 0.793 0.312
1993 1.887 1.285 0.792 0.310
1994 1.885 1.285 0.791 0.308
1995 1.881 1.283 0.788 0.307
1996 1.879 1.283 0.787 0.306
1997 1.876 1.282 0.785 0.306
1998 1.871 1.280 0.783 0.305
1999 1.868 1.279 0.781 0.305
2000 1.860 1.274 0.778 0.304
2001 1.856 1.273 0.776 0.303
2002 1.853 1.272 0.775 0.303
2003 1.849 1.270 0.773 0.302
2004 1.845 1.269 0.771 0.302
2005 1.840 1.267 0.769 0.302
2006 1.834 1.263 0.767 0.301
2007 1.830 1.261 0.765 0.301
2008 1.825 1.259 0.763 0.300
2009 1.818 1.255 0.760 0.300
2010 1.813 1.252 0.757 0.299
2011 1.807 1.248 0.755 0.298
2012 1.801 1.245 0.752 0.298
2013 1.795 1.241 0.749 0.297
2014 1.790 1.238 0.747 0.296
2015 1.784 1.234 0.744 0.294
2016 1.778 1.230 0.741 0.293
2017 1.772 1.226 0.738 0.292
2018 1.766 1.222 0.735 0.291
2019 1.760 1.218 0.732 0.289
2020 1.754 1.214 0.728 0.288
2021 1.748 1.209 0.725 0.286
2022 1.742 1.204 0.722 0.284
2023 1.735 1.200 0.718 0.282
2024 1.729 1.195 0.715 0.280
2025 1.723 1.191 0.712 0.278
2026 1.718 1.186 0.708 0.276
2027 1.712 1.182 0.705 0.274
2028 1.706 1.177 0.702 0.272
2029 1.700 1.173 0.698 0.270
2030 1.695 1.168 0.695 0.268
2031 1.690 1.164 0.692 0.266
2032 1.685 1.160 0.689 0.265
2033 1.680 1.156 0.686 0.263
2034 1.675 1.152 0.683 0.261
2035 1.671 1.149 0.680 0.259
2036 1.667 1.145 0.677 0.258
2037 1.663 1.142 0.675 0.256
2038 1.659 1.138 0.672 0.254
2039 1.656 1.135 0.670 0.253
2040 1.652 1.133 0.668 0.251
2041 1.649 1.130 0.666 0.250
2042 1.646 1.127 0.664 0.249
2043 1.644 1.125 0.662 0.247
2044 1.641 1.122 0.660 0.246
2045 1.639 1.120 0.658 0.245
2046 1.636 1.118 0.656 0.244
2047 1.634 1.116 0.655 0.243
2048 1.632 1.114 0.653 0.241
2049 1.631 1.112 0.651 0.240
2050 1.629 1.111 0.650 0.239
2051 1.627 1.109 0.649 0.238
2052 1.626 1.108 0.647 0.237
2053 1.625 1.106 0.646 0.236
2054 1.624 1.105 0.645 0.236
2055 1.623 1.104 0.644 0.235
2056 1.622 1.103 0.643 0.234
2057 1.621 1.102 0.642 0.233
2058 1.620 1.101 0.641 0.233
2059 1.619 1.100 0.641 0.232
2060 1.618 1.099 0.640 0.231
2061 1.618 1.098 0.639 0.231
2062 1.617 1.098 0.638 0.230
2063 1.617 1.097 0.638 0.229
2064 1.616 1.096 0.637 0.229
2065 1.616 1.096 0.636 0.228
2066 1.615 1.095 0.636 0.228
2067 1.615 1.095 0.635 0.228
2068 1.615 1.094 0.635 0.227
2069 1.614 1.094 0.634 0.227
2070 1.614 1.093 0.634 0.227
2071 1.614 1.093 0.633 0.227
2072 1.614 1.093 0.633 0.227
2073 1.614 1.092 0.633 0.226
2074 1.613 1.092 0.632 0.226
2075 1.613 1.091 0.632 0.226
2076 1.613 1.091 0.632 0.226
2077 1.613 1.091 0.631 0.226
2078 1.613 1.090 0.631 0.226
2079 1.613 1.090 0.631 0.226
2080 1.613 1.090 0.630 0.225
2081 1.613 1.089 0.630 0.225
2082 1.612 1.089 0.630 0.225
2083 1.612 1.089 0.629 0.225
2084 1.612 1.089 0.629 0.225
2085 1.612 1.088 0.629 0.225
2086 1.612 1.088 0.628 0.225
2087 1.612 1.088 0.628 0.224
2088 1.612 1.087 0.628 0.224
2089 1.612 1.087 0.627 0.224
2090 1.612 1.087 0.627 0.224
2091 1.611 1.086 0.627 0.224
2092 1.611 1.086 0.626 0.224
2093 1.611 1.086 0.626 0.224
2094 1.611 1.086 0.626 0.223
2095 1.611 1.085 0.625 0.223
2096 1.611 1.085 0.625 0.223
2097 1.611 1.085 0.625 0.223
2098 1.611 1.084 0.625 0.223
2099 1.611 1.084 0.624 0.223
2100 1.611 1.084 0.624 0.223
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 6. OASI real lifetime net transfer per initial cohort member under the award adjustment policy evaluated as of the initial cohort year, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in 2001 dollars)
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 63,959 8,809 70,672 2,473
1902 71,461 9,477 78,181 2,711
1903 71,974 9,286 77,732 2,757
1904 73,349 9,106 78,018 2,690
1905 76,601 9,167 80,121 2,644
1906 77,991 8,989 79,971 2,540
1907 84,950 9,594 85,292 2,750
1908 86,906 9,461 85,196 2,628
1909 85,464 8,919 81,453 2,313
1910 87,207 8,810 80,531 2,101
1911 90,647 8,974 80,737 2,077
1912 96,353 9,113 82,184 1,835
1913 99,764 9,222 81,382 1,630
1914 101,416 8,908 78,101 1,213
1915 100,249 8,595 73,098 945
1916 105,892 8,797 72,334 716
1917 96,988 7,647 61,573 267
1918 96,058 7,009 55,225 -256
1919 88,188 5,988 45,165 -554
1920 93,299 6,018 42,712 -881
1921 95,664 5,730 38,368 -1,245
1922 93,620 5,349 33,189 -1,404
1923 94,702 5,094 29,215 -1,626
1924 98,907 4,976 26,143 -1,899
1925 99,941 4,850 23,018 -1,982
1926 98,616 4,411 18,444 -2,153
1927 103,276 4,348 15,543 -2,342
1928 102,646 3,893 10,860 -2,499
1929 100,935 3,453 6,264 -2,570
1930 103,691 3,303 3,318 -2,670
1931 101,898 3,063 769 -2,593
1932 100,445 2,855 -1,314 -2,537
1933 94,504 2,200 -5,720 -2,553
1934 97,205 2,209 -6,862 -2,527
1935 95,619 1,804 -10,323 -2,568
1936 96,170 1,680 -12,209 -2,534
1937 103,462 2,239 -10,271 -2,373
1938 105,414 1,771 -14,973 -3,395
1939 108,072 2,079 -16,048 -3,323
1940 111,336 2,251 -18,399 -3,012
1941 110,043 2,529 -17,754 -2,343
1942 107,256 2,146 -20,590 -2,711
1943 111,030 2,793 -20,379 -3,240
1944 118,496 3,726 -18,826 -3,641
1945 123,101 3,729 -19,796 -4,912
1946 123,820 3,397 -17,848 -3,811
1947 124,513 3,474 -17,266 -3,658
1948 131,382 4,282 -16,335 -3,627
1949 138,416 4,848 -15,918 -4,235
1950 137,850 4,993 -14,576 -4,958
1951 138,025 6,242 -14,805 -5,723
1952 140,634 6,710 -14,970 -6,496
1953 142,209 7,314 -14,423 -5,975
1954 143,490 7,105 -15,062 -8,853
1955 140,383 7,778 -15,464 -10,910
1956 138,157 7,813 -15,112 -10,401
1957 135,530 7,627 -14,686 -8,177
1958 134,146 7,170 -14,379 -10,509
1959 132,034 7,238 -14,655 -10,739
1960 126,532 6,116 -15,206 -9,802
1961 127,277 6,359 -14,359 -10,865
1962 128,133 6,440 -14,146 -8,911
1963 128,235 6,623 -13,277 -9,443
1964 128,671 6,575 -13,356 -9,933
1965 129,487 6,798 -12,969 -9,785
1966 129,904 8,093 -12,505 -7,627
1967 131,264 8,172 -12,337 -8,314
1968 130,249 8,685 -11,746 -7,918
1969 128,355 8,114 -11,541 -6,346
1970 125,885 7,154 -11,575 -5,791
1971 126,518 7,047 -11,555 -5,961
1972 128,323 7,805 -11,583 -6,437
1973 128,366 7,774 -11,491 -4,884
1974 127,004 7,331 -10,885 -3,059
1975 125,695 6,637 -10,869 -3,754
1976 123,605 6,378 -11,101 -4,254
1977 121,805 6,026 -11,115 -3,538
1978 121,709 5,951 -10,858 -3,338
1979 120,458 5,665 -10,242 -3,373
1980 121,237 4,823 -10,260 -3,966
1981 120,420 4,627 -10,160 -3,317
1982 120,276 4,491 -10,697 -3,722
1983 120,731 4,595 -11,179 -4,161
1984 120,892 4,850 -11,743 -4,001
1985 120,390 4,791 -12,353 -4,793
1986 120,690 4,905 -13,410 -5,328
1987 120,372 4,768 -13,897 -5,073
1988 120,000 4,676 -14,311 -5,338
1989 119,015 4,449 -14,709 -6,319
1990 119,874 4,232 -15,027 -5,487
1991 120,325 4,033 -15,712 -6,599
1992 121,401 4,073 -16,348 -6,538
1993 122,712 4,119 -16,993 -6,643
1994 123,832 4,178 -17,646 -6,219
1995 124,459 4,060 -18,366 -7,906
1996 125,514 4,099 -18,848 -8,910
1997 126,086 4,187 -19,613 -11,036
1998 126,300 4,214 -20,373 -13,176
1999 126,866 4,268 -20,851 -14,654
2000 126,176 4,007 -21,194 -12,130
2001 126,966 4,047 -21,911 -9,951
2002 127,940 4,047 -22,643 -10,285
2003 128,842 4,114 -23,130 -10,497
2004 129,769 4,164 -23,573 -10,693
2005 130,587 4,168 -23,988 -10,870
2006 131,072 4,052 -24,418 -11,041
2007 132,008 4,092 -24,798 -11,210
2008 132,934 4,115 -25,181 -11,377
2009 133,651 4,045 -25,580 -11,539
2010 134,626 4,055 -25,948 -11,694
2011 135,618 4,046 -26,324 -11,850
2012 136,784 4,087 -26,681 -12,003
2013 138,180 4,181 -27,022 -12,153
2014 139,853 4,357 -27,337 -12,301
2015 140,925 4,304 -27,713 -12,450
2016 142,480 4,404 -28,039 -12,590
2017 143,986 4,468 -28,378 -12,733
2018 145,858 4,641 -28,691 -12,877
2019 147,916 4,863 -28,997 -13,024
2020 149,434 4,866 -29,377 -13,184
2021 151,533 5,063 -29,709 -13,344
2022 153,891 5,335 -30,024 -13,506
2023 156,414 5,653 -30,335 -13,672
2024 158,994 5,980 -30,647 -13,840
2025 161,553 6,284 -30,975 -14,015
2026 164,093 6,577 -31,307 -14,189
2027 166,206 6,738 -31,659 -14,359
2028 168,221 6,860 -32,025 -14,529
2029 170,120 6,930 -32,414 -14,706
2030 171,881 6,939 -32,825 -14,888
2031 173,567 6,915 -33,249 -15,072
2032 175,080 6,824 -33,693 -15,258
2033 176,594 6,727 -34,140 -15,443
2034 178,099 6,614 -34,599 -15,633
2035 179,614 6,493 -35,067 -15,828
2036 181,176 6,381 -35,535 -16,023
2037 182,792 6,279 -36,003 -16,220
2038 184,481 6,194 -36,471 -16,417
2039 186,254 6,130 -36,937 -16,616
2040 188,121 6,088 -37,402 -16,817
2041 190,071 6,062 -37,871 -17,022
2042 192,121 6,066 -38,333 -17,227
2043 194,264 6,098 -38,789 -17,431
2044 196,497 6,152 -39,244 -17,638
2045 198,841 6,241 -39,692 -17,844
2046 201,260 6,344 -40,143 -18,053
2047 203,752 6,462 -40,597 -18,265
2048 206,303 6,590 -41,054 -18,481
2049 208,917 6,733 -41,511 -18,696
2050 211,549 6,882 -41,968 -18,913
2051 214,226 7,033 -42,431 -19,132
2052 216,932 7,187 -42,897 -19,351
2053 219,642 7,327 -43,378 -19,577
2054 222,366 7,467 -43,860 -19,802
2055 225,090 7,598 -44,349 -20,029
2056 227,787 7,709 -44,850 -20,258
2057 230,451 7,792 -45,367 -20,492
2058 233,090 7,846 -45,904 -20,732
2059 235,697 7,868 -46,462 -20,979
2060 238,268 7,864 -47,036 -21,230
2061 240,821 7,840 -47,623 -21,485
2062 243,372 7,807 -48,214 -21,741
2063 245,929 7,764 -48,815 -21,998
2064 248,511 7,719 -49,422 -22,257
2065 251,125 7,670 -50,038 -22,520
2066 253,796 7,639 -50,651 -22,782
2067 256,508 7,619 -51,262 -23,043
2068 259,274 7,617 -51,867 -23,303
2069 262,098 7,633 -52,470 -23,563
2070 264,997 7,664 -53,074 -23,825
2071 267,981 7,714 -53,681 -24,089
2072 271,032 7,775 -54,292 -24,356
2073 274,148 7,846 -54,909 -24,626
2074 277,380 7,943 -55,527 -24,899
2075 280,697 8,061 -56,145 -25,173
2076 284,045 8,177 -56,773 -25,450
2077 287,500 8,303 -57,413 -25,734
2078 291,043 8,431 -58,073 -26,026
2079 294,495 8,611 -58,665 -26,294
2080 298,269 8,819 -59,306 -26,585
2081 301,867 8,962 -59,963 -26,877
2082 305,498 9,104 -60,627 -27,172
2083 309,127 9,232 -61,303 -27,471
2084 312,820 9,371 -61,984 -27,773
2085 316,533 9,503 -62,674 -28,078
2086 320,166 9,592 -63,384 -28,387
2087 323,824 9,675 -64,103 -28,699
2088 327,494 9,748 -64,833 -29,015
2089 331,186 9,815 -65,574 -29,335
2090 334,914 9,880 -66,323 -29,659
2091 338,675 9,940 -67,083 -29,986
2092 342,475 10,001 -67,851 -30,317
2093 346,330 10,064 -68,628 -30,652
2094 350,238 10,131 -69,414 -30,991
2095 354,205 10,203 -70,208 -31,333
2096 358,236 10,281 -71,010 -31,680
2097 362,329 10,364 -71,820 -32,031
2098 366,505 10,461 -72,637 -32,386
2099 370,747 10,563 -73,463 -32,745
2100 375,060 10,674 -74,297 -33,108
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 7. OASI real lifetime net transfer per initial cohort member under the tax adjustment policy evaluated as of the initial cohort year, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in 2001 dollars)
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 63,959 8,809 70,672 2,473
1902 71,461 9,477 78,181 2,711
1903 71,974 9,286 77,732 2,757
1904 73,349 9,106 78,018 2,690
1905 76,601 9,167 80,121 2,644
1906 77,991 8,989 79,971 2,540
1907 84,950 9,594 85,292 2,750
1908 86,906 9,461 85,196 2,628
1909 85,464 8,919 81,453 2,313
1910 87,207 8,810 80,531 2,101
1911 90,647 8,974 80,737 2,077
1912 96,353 9,113 82,184 1,835
1913 99,764 9,222 81,382 1,630
1914 101,416 8,908 78,101 1,213
1915 100,249 8,595 73,098 945
1916 105,891 8,797 72,334 716
1917 96,988 7,647 61,573 267
1918 96,058 7,009 55,225 -256
1919 88,187 5,988 45,165 -554
1920 93,298 6,018 42,712 -881
1921 95,663 5,730 38,367 -1,245
1922 93,619 5,349 33,189 -1,404
1923 94,701 5,094 29,215 -1,626
1924 98,906 4,976 26,143 -1,899
1925 99,940 4,850 23,017 -1,982
1926 98,616 4,411 18,443 -2,153
1927 103,276 4,348 15,543 -2,342
1928 102,646 3,893 10,860 -2,499
1929 100,935 3,453 6,264 -2,570
1930 103,692 3,303 3,318 -2,670
1931 101,899 3,063 769 -2,593
1932 100,447 2,855 -1,314 -2,537
1933 94,506 2,200 -5,721 -2,553
1934 97,208 2,209 -6,863 -2,527
1935 95,621 1,804 -10,324 -2,568
1936 96,172 1,679 -12,210 -2,534
1937 103,463 2,239 -10,273 -2,373
1938 105,414 1,770 -14,976 -3,395
1939 108,069 2,078 -16,053 -3,323
1940 111,325 2,250 -18,406 -3,012
1941 110,026 2,527 -17,763 -2,343
1942 107,231 2,143 -20,601 -2,711
1943 110,995 2,788 -20,394 -3,241
1944 118,447 3,719 -18,845 -3,642
1945 123,076 3,725 -19,811 -4,912
1946 123,844 3,396 -17,855 -3,811
1947 124,602 3,478 -17,265 -3,658
1948 131,563 4,295 -16,324 -3,627
1949 139,227 4,918 -15,813 -4,234
1950 139,613 5,153 -14,341 -4,953
1951 140,904 6,582 -14,435 -5,714
1952 144,920 7,241 -14,419 -6,481
1953 148,698 8,153 -13,582 -5,952
1954 152,313 8,220 -13,912 -8,808
1955 151,386 9,391 -14,045 -10,841
1956 151,360 9,823 -13,468 -10,321
1957 150,919 10,006 -12,841 -8,103
1958 151,852 9,809 -12,311 -10,398
1959 152,397 10,532 -12,333 -10,609
1960 149,202 9,753 -12,684 -9,671
1961 152,494 10,365 -11,593 -10,696
1962 156,212 10,972 -11,123 -8,755
1963 159,014 11,575 -10,037 -9,254
1964 162,548 12,129 -9,849 -9,715
1965 166,481 13,006 -9,232 -9,547
1966 169,967 16,070 -8,598 -7,423
1967 174,896 16,924 -8,212 -8,074
1968 176,535 18,617 -7,564 -7,675
1969 177,245 18,528 -7,358 -6,148
1970 177,350 17,698 -7,366 -5,609
1971 181,294 18,016 -7,170 -5,772
1972 186,936 20,457 -6,993 -6,233
1973 190,494 21,835 -6,955 -4,737
1974 191,827 21,902 -6,583 -2,972
1975 193,317 21,209 -6,584 -3,656
1976 193,659 22,092 -6,768 -4,155
1977 194,313 22,603 -6,809 -3,466
1978 197,134 23,382 -6,642 -3,280
1979 198,186 23,826 -6,297 -3,326
1980 203,233 23,341 -6,430 -3,928
1981 204,589 23,423 -6,367 -3,298
1982 206,951 23,812 -6,716 -3,715
1983 209,774 24,603 -7,014 -4,171
1984 212,074 26,275 -7,370 -4,029
1985 213,435 26,950 -7,795 -4,850
1986 216,140 28,551 -8,509 -5,418
1987 217,771 28,896 -8,877 -5,184
1988 219,163 29,303 -9,200 -5,484
1989 219,599 29,593 -9,553 -6,526
1990 223,297 29,434 -9,840 -5,699
1991 226,211 29,299 -10,376 -6,892
1992 230,057 29,962 -10,853 -6,865
1993 234,223 30,563 -11,352 -7,015
1994 238,127 31,579 -11,878 -6,604
1995 241,340 32,186 -12,498 -8,445
1996 245,116 32,915 -12,922 -9,573
1997 248,079 34,533 -13,568 -11,927
1998 250,339 36,175 -14,253 -14,326
1999 253,136 37,362 -14,727 -16,029
2000 253,778 37,842 -15,188 -13,351
2001 256,991 39,113 -15,866 -11,021
2002 260,414 39,405 -16,557 -11,460
2003 263,591 40,538 -17,105 -11,770
2004 266,803 41,388 -17,627 -12,066
2005 269,818 42,138 -18,158 -12,344
2006 272,291 42,648 -18,741 -12,621
2007 275,443 43,347 -19,257 -12,897
2008 278,237 43,894 -19,827 -13,178
2009 280,661 44,198 -20,448 -13,456
2010 283,359 44,553 -21,050 -13,732
2011 285,988 44,814 -21,687 -14,012
2012 288,805 45,109 -22,318 -14,294
2013 291,582 45,311 -22,985 -14,579
2014 294,471 45,509 -23,656 -14,866
2015 297,308 45,623 -24,354 -15,154
2016 300,288 45,738 -25,054 -15,440
2017 303,103 45,756 -25,796 -15,735
2018 306,170 45,819 -26,541 -16,036
2019 309,129 45,810 -27,326 -16,348
2020 312,014 45,719 -28,156 -16,676
2021 314,900 45,588 -29,014 -17,014
2022 317,834 45,424 -29,898 -17,363
2023 320,797 45,235 -30,808 -17,723
2024 323,800 45,032 -31,740 -18,092
2025 326,827 44,802 -32,700 -18,474
2026 329,888 44,566 -33,674 -18,860
2027 332,717 44,268 -34,651 -19,243
2028 335,573 43,968 -35,641 -19,630
2029 338,460 43,662 -36,651 -20,028
2030 341,358 43,341 -37,679 -20,435
2031 344,306 43,026 -38,716 -20,846
2032 347,323 42,724 -39,757 -21,260
2033 350,428 42,442 -40,798 -21,676
2034 353,585 42,164 -41,854 -22,101
2035 356,818 41,892 -42,919 -22,532
2036 360,146 41,639 -43,984 -22,966
2037 363,570 41,404 -45,052 -23,404
2038 367,105 41,191 -46,121 -23,844
2039 370,746 40,999 -47,192 -24,289
2040 374,503 40,826 -48,266 -24,738
2041 378,340 40,655 -49,349 -25,194
2042 382,283 40,506 -50,428 -25,651
2043 386,315 40,376 -51,503 -26,108
2044 390,434 40,258 -52,582 -26,571
2045 394,669 40,169 -53,654 -27,032
2046 398,998 40,089 -54,734 -27,500
2047 403,432 40,029 -55,816 -27,971
2048 407,956 39,983 -56,903 -28,447
2049 412,596 39,967 -57,985 -28,923
2050 417,268 39,960 -59,064 -29,400
2051 422,078 39,981 -60,143 -29,879
2052 427,016 40,038 -61,216 -30,357
2053 432,055 40,111 -62,299 -30,844
2054 437,227 40,226 -63,370 -31,327
2055 442,509 40,369 -64,438 -31,810
2056 447,899 40,537 -65,507 -32,295
2057 453,390 40,719 -66,584 -32,783
2058 459,009 40,920 -67,673 -33,278
2059 464,737 41,128 -68,778 -33,782
2060 470,557 41,350 -69,892 -34,291
2061 476,473 41,585 -71,013 -34,804
2062 482,506 41,851 -72,130 -35,315
2063 488,645 42,131 -73,254 -35,830
2064 494,891 42,430 -74,382 -36,346
2065 501,248 42,739 -75,523 -36,868
2066 507,702 43,073 -76,659 -37,389
2067 514,227 43,422 -77,796 -37,911
2068 520,802 43,783 -78,931 -38,431
2069 527,445 44,156 -80,067 -38,952
2070 534,192 44,541 -81,212 -39,478
2071 541,049 44,938 -82,370 -40,009
2072 547,997 45,339 -83,541 -40,547
2073 555,046 45,746 -84,728 -41,091
2074 562,197 46,157 -85,932 -41,642
2075 569,422 46,571 -87,147 -42,198
2076 576,756 46,992 -88,378 -42,760
2077 584,283 47,430 -89,636 -43,336
2078 592,024 47,889 -90,926 -43,927
2079 599,360 48,341 -92,130 -44,479
2080 607,258 48,835 -93,422 -45,073
2081 615,081 49,296 -94,724 -45,669
2082 622,998 49,762 -96,043 -46,272
2083 631,009 50,233 -97,377 -46,881
2084 639,113 50,707 -98,728 -47,498
2085 647,307 51,183 -100,096 -48,122
2086 655,595 51,663 -101,481 -48,753
2087 663,988 52,150 -102,881 -49,392
2088 672,485 52,641 -104,300 -50,038
2089 681,089 53,138 -105,736 -50,692
2090 689,802 53,641 -107,190 -51,354
2091 698,632 54,151 -108,663 -52,025
2092 707,565 54,664 -110,155 -52,703
2093 716,626 55,186 -111,666 -53,391
2094 725,803 55,714 -113,198 -54,087
2095 735,101 56,247 -114,749 -54,793
2096 744,519 56,786 -116,322 -55,508
2097 754,064 57,332 -117,916 -56,232
2098 763,737 57,885 -119,530 -56,966
2099 773,534 58,441 -121,168 -57,711
2100 783,467 59,006 -122,827 -58,464
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 8. Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers under the award adjustment policy evaluated as of year-end 2001, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in billions of dollars)
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 130.104 207.357 323.140 608.789
1902 143.414 220.098 352.677 658.360
1903 150.715 225.014 365.871 698.657
1904 157.567 226.369 376.721 699.208
1905 167.332 231.728 393.407 698.935
1906 173.566 231.504 400.043 683.963
1907 185.763 242.778 419.234 727.784
1908 193.056 243.223 425.403 706.590
1909 196.610 237.439 421.196 643.861
1910 203.609 238.030 422.630 593.524
1911 211.908 242.761 424.247 587.565
1912 223.759 244.892 428.995 515.688
1913 233.270 249.526 427.725 461.109
1914 242.291 246.283 419.411 350.614
1915 246.675 244.736 404.298 281.400
1916 252.141 242.387 387.148 206.414
1917 243.594 222.256 347.606 81.261
1918 242.391 204.684 313.232 -78.107
1919 223.951 175.974 257.809 -170.316
1920 237.470 177.264 244.360 -271.293
1921 243.131 168.536 219.184 -382.817
1922 237.391 156.973 189.166 -430.817
1923 236.922 147.483 164.289 -492.441
1924 241.870 140.812 143.702 -562.014
1925 241.931 135.855 125.245 -580.545
1926 235.826 122.057 99.138 -622.992
1927 239.840 116.848 81.136 -658.250
1928 231.132 101.455 54.966 -680.974
1929 220.996 87.496 30.829 -680.948
1930 223.231 82.290 16.057 -695.577
1931 219.578 76.388 3.724 -676.328
1932 220.513 72.533 -6.483 -673.996
1933 208.656 56.212 -28.389 -682.238
1934 217.890 57.297 -34.574 -685.436
1935 220.653 48.187 -53.546 -717.157
1936 224.569 45.385 -64.081 -715.966
1937 251.183 62.916 -56.049 -697.328
1938 257.923 54.481 -78.193 -745.370
1939 266.580 57.161 -82.126 -735.059
1940 276.925 56.859 -93.620 -751.647
1941 291.359 58.778 -103.076 -772.634
1942 314.998 47.807 -141.712 -900.348
1943 336.935 56.246 -146.454 -911.225
1944 342.681 70.727 -129.090 -832.105
1945 346.362 72.085 -132.314 -818.393
1946 415.419 84.284 -164.785 -973.058
1947 469.417 93.084 -191.653 -1,082.406
1948 473.073 104.869 -172.972 -997.963
1949 495.299 119.120 -162.385 -957.252
1950 512.720 126.138 -160.271 -935.621
1951 528.705 124.572 -172.515 -949.513
1952 551.532 129.858 -176.215 -940.389
1953 571.512 138.171 -171.097 -900.774
1954 589.483 138.927 -177.668 -889.422
1955 585.898 131.435 -181.998 -849.594
1956 591.348 128.525 -183.213 -801.780
1957 589.478 123.612 -181.855 -739.648
1958 582.440 118.479 -176.425 -673.568
1959 570.165 107.858 -176.953 -620.582
1960 550.821 91.126 -183.079 -576.762
1961 552.694 93.948 -168.974 -505.934
1962 545.592 90.374 -160.692 -451.227
1963 537.134 90.259 -146.546 -389.367
1964 522.670 83.892 -140.345 -345.060
1965 498.396 78.974 -127.570 -291.937
1966 479.268 74.723 -117.779 -250.640
1967 470.438 71.535 -112.131 -220.580
1968 467.151 69.950 -107.679 -198.227
1969 471.911 66.367 -110.283 -188.852
1970 473.115 61.114 -113.645 -178.683
1971 458.898 58.459 -107.615 -160.498
1972 433.215 54.957 -98.620 -140.203
1973 416.566 49.330 -96.833 -130.372
1974 413.541 46.209 -97.276 -125.008
1975 410.515 43.016 -97.836 -120.011
1976 410.897 39.734 -99.881 -117.161
1977 416.759 37.274 -102.778 -115.385
1978 422.920 36.345 -103.741 -113.121
1979 435.224 34.983 -107.300 -113.699
1980 447.289 30.891 -113.691 -115.861
1981 450.445 29.864 -113.124 -112.558
1982 454.029 28.798 -112.631 -109.055
1983 452.199 28.493 -109.350 -102.492
1984 456.509 28.487 -107.683 -97.195
1985 463.672 27.816 -107.674 -93.234
1986 467.153 27.034 -106.701 -88.916
1987 472.156 26.165 -106.246 -85.121
1988 481.580 25.729 -106.466 -81.917
1989 494.807 24.749 -108.277 -79.952
1990 505.621 24.070 -108.929 -77.194
1991 507.327 22.999 -107.559 -73.261
1992 505.596 22.583 -104.612 -68.511
1993 503.040 22.194 -101.537 -64.011
1994 501.707 21.617 -99.027 -60.020
1995 498.948 20.338 -96.938 -56.331
1996 501.319 20.076 -95.097 -53.105
1997 505.269 19.575 -93.876 -50.324
1998 508.826 18.775 -92.854 -47.735
1999 511.665 18.381 -91.307 -45.084
2000 525.937 17.303 -92.787 -43.873
2001 527.721 16.822 -91.069 -41.361
2002 530.599 16.655 -89.322 -39.010
2003 533.676 16.387 -87.720 -36.825
2004 537.573 16.203 -86.223 -34.803
2005 541.750 15.874 -84.898 -32.927
2006 545.294 15.144 -83.808 -31.199
2007 551.344 15.043 -82.634 -29.583
2008 557.903 14.899 -81.566 -28.079
2009 563.914 14.460 -80.629 -26.666
2010 571.012 14.322 -79.614 -25.324
2011 577.975 14.118 -78.610 -24.048
2012 585.398 14.089 -77.531 -22.828
2013 593.450 14.236 -76.387 -21.658
2014 602.374 14.652 -75.158 -20.541
2015 608.404 14.295 -74.084 -19.479
2016 616.279 14.446 -72.878 -18.461
2017 623.702 14.469 -71.698 -17.495
2018 632.512 14.836 -70.449 -16.577
2019 641.915 15.336 -69.177 -15.705
2020 648.690 15.137 -68.064 -14.886
2021 657.656 15.527 -66.812 -14.099
2022 667.394 16.131 -65.507 -13.348
2023 677.509 16.839 -64.178 -12.632
2024 687.590 17.542 -62.851 -11.951
2025 697.489 18.155 -61.569 -11.309
2026 707.219 18.709 -60.310 -10.698
2027 717.812 18.946 -59.336 -10.155
2028 728.097 19.064 -58.401 -9.639
2029 738.024 19.029 -57.521 -9.154
2030 747.505 18.832 -56.694 -8.696
2031 756.805 18.548 -55.899 -8.262
2032 765.470 18.088 -55.144 -7.849
2033 774.226 17.622 -54.398 -7.457
2034 783.012 17.122 -53.674 -7.086
2035 791.892 16.610 -52.964 -6.734
2036 801.005 16.131 -52.252 -6.399
2037 810.343 15.686 -51.539 -6.080
2038 819.973 15.290 -50.820 -5.775
2039 829.905 14.950 -50.094 -5.485
2040 840.162 14.669 -49.362 -5.208
2041 850.669 14.430 -48.628 -4.945
2042 861.484 14.263 -47.879 -4.693
2043 872.578 14.165 -47.117 -4.453
2044 883.938 14.115 -46.352 -4.224
2045 895.684 14.143 -45.576 -4.005
2046 907.696 14.199 -44.807 -3.797
2047 919.982 14.287 -44.043 -3.600
2048 932.503 14.391 -43.289 -3.414
2049 945.300 14.525 -42.540 -3.236
2050 958.198 14.664 -41.799 -3.067
2051 971.327 14.806 -41.072 -2.907
2052 984.654 14.949 -40.357 -2.755
2053 998.077 15.059 -39.665 -2.612
2054 1,011.664 15.165 -38.984 -2.476
2055 1,025.378 15.252 -38.320 -2.347
2056 1,039.106 15.295 -37.676 -2.225
2057 1,052.838 15.283 -37.056 -2.110
2058 1,066.605 15.215 -36.461 -2.002
2059 1,080.379 15.087 -35.891 -1.899
2060 1,094.129 14.911 -35.340 -1.802
2061 1,107.918 14.702 -34.803 -1.710
2062 1,121.805 14.481 -34.275 -1.623
2063 1,135.799 14.245 -33.757 -1.540
2064 1,149.970 14.010 -33.246 -1.462
2065 1,164.326 13.771 -32.744 -1.387
2066 1,178.966 13.567 -32.241 -1.316
2067 1,193.800 13.386 -31.739 -1.248
2068 1,208.866 13.239 -31.235 -1.184
2069 1,224.182 13.123 -30.732 -1.122
2070 1,239.816 13.035 -30.231 -1.064
2071 1,255.816 12.978 -29.734 -1.009
2072 1,272.094 12.938 -29.243 -0.956
2073 1,288.647 12.913 -28.756 -0.906
2074 1,305.724 12.929 -28.274 -0.859
2075 1,323.197 12.979 -27.795 -0.814
2076 1,340.816 13.020 -27.325 -0.771
2077 1,358.958 13.076 -26.864 -0.731
2078 1,377.546 13.130 -26.417 -0.693
2079 1,395.753 13.263 -25.944 -0.656
2080 1,413.836 13.415 -25.467 -0.621
2081 1,432.843 13.483 -25.033 -0.589
2082 1,452.130 13.546 -24.608 -0.558
2083 1,471.536 13.586 -24.193 -0.529
2084 1,491.383 13.639 -23.785 -0.501
2085 1,511.464 13.682 -23.386 -0.475
2086 1,531.287 13.660 -23.000 -0.450
2087 1,551.346 13.631 -22.620 -0.427
2088 1,571.575 13.586 -22.249 -0.404
2089 1,592.011 13.533 -21.885 -0.383
2090 1,612.701 13.476 -21.528 -0.363
2091 1,633.625 13.414 -21.176 -0.345
2092 1,654.805 13.351 -20.831 -0.327
2093 1,676.294 13.292 -20.491 -0.310
2094 1,698.078 13.236 -20.156 -0.294
2095 1,720.170 13.187 -19.826 -0.278
2096 1,742.582 13.144 -19.500 -0.264
2097 1,765.290 13.107 -19.178 -0.250
2098 1,788.384 13.085 -18.861 -0.237
2099 1,811.795 13.069 -18.547 -0.225
2100 1,835.552 13.062 -18.238 -0.213
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 9. Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers under the tax adjustment policy evaluated as of year-end 2001, by interest rate assumption and cohort (in billions of dollars)
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 130.104 207.357 323.140 608.789
1902 143.414 220.098 352.677 658.360
1903 150.715 225.014 365.871 698.657
1904 157.567 226.369 376.721 699.208
1905 167.332 231.728 393.407 698.935
1906 173.566 231.504 400.043 683.963
1907 185.763 242.778 419.234 727.784
1908 193.056 243.223 425.403 706.590
1909 196.610 237.439 421.196 643.861
1910 203.609 238.030 422.630 593.524
1911 211.908 242.761 424.247 587.565
1912 223.758 244.892 428.995 515.688
1913 233.270 249.526 427.725 461.109
1914 242.291 246.283 419.411 350.614
1915 246.675 244.736 404.298 281.400
1916 252.140 242.386 387.148 206.414
1917 243.593 222.255 347.605 81.261
1918 242.390 204.683 313.231 -78.108
1919 223.950 175.973 257.808 -170.316
1920 237.468 177.263 244.359 -271.294
1921 243.129 168.535 219.183 -382.818
1922 237.389 156.971 189.164 -430.819
1923 236.920 147.481 164.287 -492.442
1924 241.867 140.810 143.700 -562.016
1925 241.929 135.853 125.243 -580.546
1926 235.825 122.056 99.136 -622.994
1927 239.839 116.846 81.134 -658.252
1928 231.133 101.454 54.964 -680.976
1929 220.997 87.495 30.828 -680.950
1930 223.233 82.290 16.055 -695.580
1931 219.582 76.388 3.722 -676.331
1932 220.518 72.534 -6.485 -673.999
1933 208.662 56.213 -28.392 -682.243
1934 217.896 57.297 -34.578 -685.442
1935 220.657 48.184 -53.553 -717.165
1936 224.573 45.381 -64.090 -715.976
1937 251.186 62.909 -56.061 -697.341
1938 257.922 54.469 -78.210 -745.387
1939 266.573 57.141 -82.150 -735.081
1940 276.898 56.823 -93.658 -751.679
1941 291.312 58.725 -103.131 -772.675
1942 314.923 47.728 -141.789 -900.405
1943 336.829 56.140 -146.556 -911.298
1944 342.539 70.591 -129.215 -832.191
1945 346.290 71.991 -132.414 -818.471
1946 415.501 84.271 -164.844 -973.135
1947 469.750 93.207 -191.642 -1,082.475
1948 473.723 105.172 -172.858 -998.009
1949 498.200 120.861 -161.316 -956.923
1950 519.277 130.183 -157.691 -934.719
1951 539.734 131.359 -168.194 -948.002
1952 568.341 140.127 -169.729 -938.157
1953 597.590 154.023 -161.128 -897.361
1954 625.728 160.733 -164.105 -884.893
1955 631.822 158.696 -165.294 -844.219
1956 647.859 161.588 -163.282 -795.625
1957 656.410 162.178 -159.009 -732.904
1958 659.318 162.088 -151.052 -666.422
1959 658.099 156.945 -148.912 -613.065
1960 649.508 145.311 -152.717 -569.042
1961 662.196 153.128 -136.415 -498.062
1962 665.151 153.964 -126.353 -443.349
1963 666.056 157.738 -110.787 -381.593
1964 660.279 154.765 -103.496 -337.484
1965 640.784 151.096 -90.816 -284.826
1966 627.075 148.374 -80.981 -243.943
1967 626.810 148.152 -74.640 -214.205
1968 633.160 149.943 -69.342 -192.146
1969 651.662 151.548 -70.314 -182.959
1970 666.536 151.198 -72.315 -173.077
1971 657.580 149.446 -66.782 -155.405
1972 631.091 144.047 -59.537 -135.756
1973 618.179 138.551 -58.607 -126.452
1974 624.611 138.053 -58.836 -121.476
1975 631.366 137.467 -59.268 -116.892
1976 643.778 137.629 -60.893 -114.432
1977 664.848 139.803 -62.959 -113.016
1978 685.012 142.813 -63.454 -111.156
1979 716.062 147.125 -65.974 -112.122
1980 749.803 149.494 -71.248 -114.757
1981 765.285 151.183 -70.898 -111.903
1982 781.221 152.704 -70.715 -108.848
1983 785.712 152.569 -68.609 -102.738
1984 800.829 154.343 -67.587 -97.870
1985 822.026 156.481 -67.945 -94.343
1986 836.610 157.359 -67.701 -90.414
1987 854.200 158.569 -67.865 -86.991
1988 879.541 161.235 -68.442 -84.158
1989 912.984 164.618 -70.320 -82.581
1990 941.851 167.403 -71.330 -80.174
1991 953.776 167.102 -71.034 -76.506
1992 958.118 166.116 -69.450 -71.945
1993 960.164 164.665 -67.828 -67.593
1994 964.774 163.402 -66.661 -63.738
1995 967.517 161.225 -65.968 -60.173
1996 979.021 161.194 -65.199 -57.054
1997 994.132 161.440 -64.944 -54.385
1998 1,008.545 161.167 -64.963 -51.902
1999 1,020.928 160.908 -64.491 -49.315
2000 1,057.816 163.391 -66.491 -48.291
2001 1,068.153 162.571 -65.945 -45.806
2002 1,079.998 162.158 -65.313 -43.467
2003 1,091.816 161.479 -64.871 -41.290
2004 1,105.241 161.055 -64.477 -39.270
2005 1,119.361 160.487 -64.265 -37.392
2006 1,132.803 159.400 -64.321 -35.663
2007 1,150.416 159.368 -64.169 -34.035
2008 1,167.717 158.925 -64.223 -32.522
2009 1,184.192 157.998 -64.452 -31.099
2010 1,201.856 157.343 -64.584 -29.737
2011 1,218.816 156.386 -64.763 -28.437
2012 1,236.003 155.503 -64.854 -27.184
2013 1,252.273 154.295 -64.974 -25.980
2014 1,268.342 153.047 -65.037 -24.823
2015 1,283.544 151.540 -65.105 -23.711
2016 1,298.855 150.037 -65.120 -22.641
2017 1,312.949 148.178 -65.175 -21.619
2018 1,327.705 146.455 -65.169 -20.644
2019 1,341.533 144.457 -65.191 -19.714
2020 1,354.450 142.208 -65.234 -18.829
2021 1,366.671 139.813 -65.250 -17.978
2022 1,378.385 137.329 -65.230 -17.160
2023 1,389.537 134.748 -65.179 -16.376
2024 1,400.316 132.113 -65.091 -15.623
2025 1,411.041 129.441 -64.999 -14.907
2026 1,421.771 126.783 -64.870 -14.221
2027 1,436.940 124.469 -64.944 -13.609
2028 1,452.433 122.179 -64.994 -13.023
2029 1,468.326 119.900 -65.040 -12.466
2030 1,484.554 117.623 -65.078 -11.935
2031 1,501.281 115.401 -65.091 -11.426
2032 1,518.536 113.251 -65.069 -10.937
2033 1,536.350 111.190 -65.007 -10.467
2034 1,554.534 109.155 -64.929 -10.017
2035 1,573.161 107.171 -64.823 -9.587
2036 1,592.255 105.268 -64.677 -9.172
2037 1,611.759 103.433 -64.493 -8.772
2038 1,631.692 101.676 -64.268 -8.388
2039 1,651.961 99.987 -64.003 -8.017
2040 1,672.556 98.366 -63.699 -7.661
2041 1,693.273 96.772 -63.366 -7.319
2042 1,714.188 95.248 -62.986 -6.988
2043 1,735.212 93.785 -62.561 -6.669
2044 1,756.356 92.363 -62.105 -6.363
2045 1,777.799 91.027 -61.608 -6.067
2046 1,799.508 89.733 -61.093 -5.785
2047 1,821.577 88.501 -60.554 -5.514
2048 1,843.988 87.317 -60.000 -5.254
2049 1,866.905 86.215 -59.422 -5.006
2050 1,889.987 85.152 -58.825 -4.768
2051 1,913.759 84.171 -58.216 -4.540
2052 1,938.226 83.282 -57.591 -4.323
2053 1,963.303 82.440 -56.966 -4.115
2054 1,989.184 81.700 -56.325 -3.917
2055 2,015.811 81.033 -55.678 -3.728
2056 2,043.201 80.429 -55.030 -3.548
2057 2,071.350 79.867 -54.386 -3.376
2058 2,100.399 79.352 -53.752 -3.213
2059 2,130.249 78.863 -53.130 -3.058
2060 2,160.806 78.407 -52.512 -2.911
2061 2,192.055 77.987 -51.897 -2.771
2062 2,224.074 77.627 -51.276 -2.637
2063 2,256.758 77.299 -50.657 -2.509
2064 2,290.076 77.007 -50.037 -2.387
2065 2,324.009 76.733 -49.420 -2.271
2066 2,358.448 76.503 -48.796 -2.160
2067 2,393.232 76.293 -48.168 -2.053
2068 2,428.243 76.098 -47.533 -1.952
2069 2,463.539 75.918 -46.895 -1.855
2070 2,499.271 75.752 -46.259 -1.763
2071 2,535.467 75.598 -45.625 -1.675
2072 2,572.033 75.443 -44.997 -1.592
2073 2,609.019 75.289 -44.373 -1.512
2074 2,646.463 75.134 -43.756 -1.436
2075 2,684.242 74.978 -43.143 -1.364
2076 2,722.539 74.827 -42.536 -1.296
2077 2,761.795 74.695 -41.942 -1.231
2078 2,802.133 74.583 -41.361 -1.169
2079 2,840.656 74.453 -40.743 -1.110
2080 2,878.489 74.290 -40.116 -1.053
2081 2,919.546 74.163 -39.545 -1.000
2082 2,961.308 74.040 -38.983 -0.950
2083 3,003.794 73.922 -38.429 -0.902
2084 3,047.001 73.806 -37.885 -0.857
2085 3,090.928 73.691 -37.350 -0.814
2086 3,135.571 73.578 -36.823 -0.773
2087 3,180.976 73.471 -36.304 -0.734
2088 3,227.119 73.367 -35.793 -0.697
2089 3,273.994 73.266 -35.290 -0.662
2090 3,321.584 73.168 -34.793 -0.629
2091 3,369.910 73.074 -34.302 -0.598
2092 3,418.880 72.977 -33.819 -0.568
2093 3,468.589 72.885 -33.341 -0.539
2094 3,518.947 72.791 -32.870 -0.512
2095 3,569.961 72.698 -32.403 -0.487
2096 3,621.590 72.601 -31.943 -0.462
2097 3,673.843 72.505 -31.487 -0.439
2098 3,726.705 72.408 -31.036 -0.417
2099 3,780.169 72.305 -30.591 -0.396
2100 3,834.306 72.204 -30.151 -0.376
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 10. Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers as a percent of aggregate OASI lifetime taxable earnings under the award adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 28.47 8.57 26.75 3.05
1902 27.81 8.28 25.84 3.07
1903 28.30 8.50 25.91 3.36
1904 27.19 8.04 24.52 3.19
1905 26.21 7.54 23.26 2.94
1906 25.36 7.15 22.08 2.76
1907 25.90 7.41 22.05 2.97
1908 24.78 7.01 20.62 2.75
1909 23.86 6.52 19.31 2.40
1910 23.58 6.35 18.50 2.15
1911 24.23 6.65 18.31 2.25
1912 23.14 6.19 16.74 1.83
1913 23.57 6.34 16.30 1.67
1914 22.30 5.86 14.55 1.20
1915 22.58 5.93 13.94 1.00
1916 22.48 5.92 12.99 0.75
1917 21.10 5.43 11.34 0.30
1918 19.35 4.70 9.41 -0.27
1919 17.88 4.27 7.75 -0.66
1920 17.52 4.11 6.80 -1.02
1921 16.53 3.73 5.64 -1.40
1922 16.43 3.64 4.97 -1.68
1923 15.94 3.44 4.22 -2.00
1924 15.43 3.20 3.52 -2.28
1925 15.47 3.18 3.10 -2.51
1926 14.89 2.90 2.44 -2.82
1927 14.63 2.78 1.95 -3.11
1928 13.99 2.47 1.33 -3.42
1929 13.51 2.25 0.76 -3.80
1930 13.25 2.14 0.39 -4.12
1931 13.29 2.10 0.09 -4.43
1932 13.24 2.04 -0.16 -4.68
1933 12.42 1.62 -0.72 -5.02
1934 12.59 1.64 -0.87 -5.16
1935 11.97 1.34 -1.29 -5.40
1936 11.87 1.27 -1.53 -5.57
1937 13.06 1.77 -1.34 -5.62
1938 12.38 1.46 -1.75 -5.85
1939 12.59 1.55 -1.85 -5.97
1940 12.46 1.51 -2.05 -6.13
1941 12.46 1.53 -2.20 -6.28
1942 11.57 1.09 -2.64 -6.54
1943 11.83 1.27 -2.67 -6.62
1944 12.52 1.71 -2.52 -6.65
1945 12.48 1.77 -2.62 -6.77
1946 12.36 1.75 -2.76 -6.95
1947 12.22 1.74 -2.88 -7.08
1948 12.71 2.08 -2.77 -7.13
1949 13.16 2.41 -2.66 -7.16
1950 13.29 2.55 -2.65 -7.23
1951 13.00 2.44 -2.78 -7.33
1952 12.95 2.49 -2.81 -7.38
1953 13.05 2.65 -2.76 -7.37
1954 12.82 2.60 -2.82 -7.41
1955 12.38 2.45 -2.92 -7.42
1956 12.07 2.37 -2.96 -7.37
1957 11.71 2.28 -2.99 -7.26
1958 11.44 2.21 -3.00 -7.20
1959 10.96 2.02 -3.07 -7.14
1960 10.34 1.70 -3.23 -7.12
1961 10.32 1.79 -3.12 -6.96
1962 10.16 1.75 -3.10 -6.89
1963 10.09 1.81 -3.00 -6.75
1964 9.87 1.73 -3.01 -6.64
1965 9.71 1.72 -2.95 -6.46
1966 9.56 1.70 -2.91 -6.28
1967 9.33 1.65 -2.88 -6.12
1968 9.19 1.63 -2.86 -6.02
1969 8.94 1.52 -2.92 -6.02
1970 8.63 1.37 -3.00 -5.99
1971 8.53 1.37 -3.01 -6.01
1972 8.44 1.37 -3.01 -6.04
1973 8.21 1.27 -3.10 -6.16
1974 8.04 1.19 -3.17 -6.28
1975 7.84 1.11 -3.24 -6.40
1976 7.64 1.02 -3.33 -6.54
1977 7.47 0.94 -3.41 -6.65
1978 7.37 0.90 -3.46 -6.82
1979 7.24 0.84 -3.53 -7.01
1980 7.01 0.71 -3.63 -7.20
1981 6.94 0.69 -3.67 -7.35
1982 6.87 0.66 -3.71 -7.49
1983 6.84 0.67 -3.72 -7.55
1984 6.81 0.67 -3.72 -7.57
1985 6.75 0.64 -3.75 -7.60
1986 6.71 0.63 -3.78 -7.65
1987 6.66 0.60 -3.81 -7.70
1988 6.62 0.59 -3.83 -7.72
1989 6.55 0.55 -3.86 -7.76
1990 6.50 0.53 -3.89 -7.78
1991 6.46 0.51 -3.92 -7.82
1992 6.44 0.51 -3.93 -7.82
1993 6.43 0.51 -3.94 -7.84
1994 6.40 0.50 -3.96 -7.86
1995 6.35 0.48 -3.99 -7.87
1996 6.33 0.47 -4.00 -7.87
1997 6.30 0.46 -4.02 -7.88
1998 6.26 0.44 -4.04 -7.88
1999 6.23 0.43 -4.05 -7.88
2000 6.16 0.40 -4.08 -7.88
2001 6.13 0.39 -4.09 -7.88
2002 6.11 0.39 -4.10 -7.88
2003 6.09 0.38 -4.11 -7.88
2004 6.07 0.38 -4.12 -7.88
2005 6.04 0.37 -4.13 -7.88
2006 6.00 0.36 -4.14 -7.88
2007 5.98 0.35 -4.15 -7.88
2008 5.96 0.35 -4.16 -7.88
2009 5.94 0.34 -4.17 -7.88
2010 5.92 0.34 -4.18 -7.88
2011 5.90 0.33 -4.19 -7.88
2012 5.89 0.33 -4.20 -7.88
2013 5.89 0.33 -4.20 -7.88
2014 5.90 0.34 -4.20 -7.89
2015 5.88 0.33 -4.21 -7.89
2016 5.88 0.34 -4.22 -7.90
2017 5.88 0.34 -4.22 -7.90
2018 5.89 0.35 -4.22 -7.91
2019 5.91 0.36 -4.22 -7.91
2020 5.91 0.36 -4.23 -7.93
2021 5.92 0.36 -4.23 -7.94
2022 5.95 0.38 -4.23 -7.95
2023 5.98 0.40 -4.23 -7.96
2024 6.01 0.42 -4.22 -7.97
2025 6.04 0.43 -4.22 -7.98
2026 6.06 0.45 -4.22 -7.99
2027 6.07 0.45 -4.22 -8.00
2028 6.08 0.45 -4.22 -8.01
2029 6.08 0.45 -4.23 -8.03
2030 6.08 0.45 -4.24 -8.04
2031 6.07 0.44 -4.25 -8.06
2032 6.06 0.43 -4.26 -8.07
2033 6.05 0.42 -4.27 -8.08
2034 6.04 0.41 -4.28 -8.10
2035 6.02 0.39 -4.29 -8.11
2036 6.01 0.38 -4.31 -8.13
2037 6.00 0.37 -4.32 -8.14
2038 5.99 0.36 -4.33 -8.16
2039 5.98 0.35 -4.34 -8.17
2040 5.98 0.35 -4.34 -8.18
2041 5.98 0.34 -4.35 -8.19
2042 5.98 0.34 -4.36 -8.20
2043 5.98 0.33 -4.36 -8.21
2044 5.98 0.33 -4.37 -8.22
2045 5.99 0.33 -4.37 -8.23
2046 6.00 0.34 -4.37 -8.24
2047 6.01 0.34 -4.38 -8.25
2048 6.02 0.34 -4.38 -8.26
2049 6.03 0.34 -4.38 -8.27
2050 6.04 0.35 -4.38 -8.28
2051 6.05 0.35 -4.38 -8.28
2052 6.06 0.36 -4.38 -8.29
2053 6.07 0.36 -4.39 -8.30
2054 6.08 0.36 -4.39 -8.31
2055 6.09 0.36 -4.39 -8.31
2056 6.09 0.36 -4.39 -8.32
2057 6.10 0.36 -4.39 -8.33
2058 6.10 0.36 -4.40 -8.33
2059 6.10 0.36 -4.40 -8.34
2060 6.10 0.35 -4.41 -8.35
2061 6.10 0.35 -4.42 -8.36
2062 6.09 0.34 -4.42 -8.37
2063 6.09 0.34 -4.43 -8.37
2064 6.08 0.33 -4.43 -8.38
2065 6.08 0.33 -4.44 -8.38
2066 6.08 0.32 -4.44 -8.39
2067 6.07 0.32 -4.45 -8.39
2068 6.07 0.31 -4.45 -8.40
2069 6.07 0.31 -4.46 -8.40
2070 6.07 0.31 -4.46 -8.40
2071 6.07 0.31 -4.46 -8.41
2072 6.08 0.31 -4.46 -8.41
2073 6.08 0.31 -4.46 -8.41
2074 6.08 0.31 -4.47 -8.41
2075 6.09 0.31 -4.47 -8.41
2076 6.09 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2077 6.10 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2078 6.11 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2079 6.11 0.31 -4.47 -8.42
2080 6.12 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2081 6.13 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2082 6.14 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2083 6.14 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2084 6.15 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2085 6.15 0.33 -4.47 -8.42
2086 6.16 0.32 -4.47 -8.42
2087 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2088 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2089 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2090 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2091 6.16 0.32 -4.48 -8.43
2092 6.17 0.32 -4.49 -8.43
2093 6.17 0.32 -4.49 -8.43
2094 6.17 0.31 -4.49 -8.44
2095 6.17 0.31 -4.49 -8.44
2096 6.17 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2097 6.17 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2098 6.18 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2099 6.18 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
2100 6.18 0.31 -4.50 -8.44
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 11. Aggregate OASI lifetime net transfers as a percent of aggregate OASI lifetime taxable earnings under the tax adjustment policy, by interest rate assumption and cohort
Cohort Zero real Tax base growth rate Trust fund Large company stock
1901 28.47 8.57 26.75 3.05
1902 27.81 8.28 25.84 3.07
1903 28.30 8.50 25.91 3.36
1904 27.19 8.04 24.52 3.19
1905 26.21 7.54 23.26 2.94
1906 25.36 7.15 22.08 2.76
1907 25.90 7.41 22.05 2.97
1908 24.78 7.01 20.62 2.75
1909 23.86 6.52 19.31 2.40
1910 23.58 6.35 18.50 2.15
1911 24.23 6.65 18.31 2.25
1912 23.14 6.19 16.74 1.83
1913 23.57 6.34 16.30 1.67
1914 22.30 5.86 14.55 1.20
1915 22.58 5.93 13.94 1.00
1916 22.48 5.92 12.99 0.75
1917 21.10 5.43 11.34 0.30
1918 19.35 4.70 9.41 -0.27
1919 17.88 4.27 7.75 -0.66
1920 17.52 4.11 6.80 -1.02
1921 16.53 3.73 5.64 -1.40
1922 16.43 3.64 4.97 -1.68
1923 15.94 3.44 4.22 -2.00
1924 15.43 3.20 3.52 -2.28
1925 15.47 3.18 3.10 -2.51
1926 14.89 2.90 2.44 -2.82
1927 14.63 2.78 1.95 -3.11
1928 13.99 2.47 1.33 -3.42
1929 13.51 2.25 0.76 -3.80
1930 13.25 2.14 0.39 -4.12
1931 13.29 2.10 0.09 -4.43
1932 13.24 2.04 -0.16 -4.68
1933 12.42 1.62 -0.72 -5.02
1934 12.59 1.64 -0.87 -5.16
1935 11.97 1.34 -1.29 -5.40
1936 11.87 1.27 -1.53 -5.57
1937 13.06 1.77 -1.34 -5.62
1938 12.38 1.46 -1.75 -5.85
1939 12.59 1.55 -1.85 -5.97
1940 12.46 1.51 -2.06 -6.13
1941 12.45 1.53 -2.20 -6.28
1942 11.56 1.09 -2.64 -6.54
1943 11.83 1.26 -2.67 -6.62
1944 12.51 1.71 -2.52 -6.65
1945 12.47 1.77 -2.62 -6.77
1946 12.36 1.75 -2.76 -6.95
1947 12.23 1.74 -2.88 -7.08
1948 12.73 2.09 -2.77 -7.13
1949 13.24 2.44 -2.65 -7.16
1950 13.46 2.63 -2.61 -7.23
1951 13.27 2.58 -2.71 -7.32
1952 13.34 2.69 -2.71 -7.36
1953 13.64 2.96 -2.60 -7.35
1954 13.61 3.01 -2.61 -7.37
1955 13.35 2.96 -2.65 -7.37
1956 13.23 2.98 -2.64 -7.32
1957 13.04 2.99 -2.61 -7.19
1958 12.95 3.03 -2.57 -7.12
1959 12.65 2.94 -2.59 -7.06
1960 12.19 2.71 -2.70 -7.03
1961 12.37 2.92 -2.52 -6.85
1962 12.38 2.99 -2.44 -6.77
1963 12.51 3.17 -2.27 -6.61
1964 12.47 3.19 -2.22 -6.50
1965 12.49 3.28 -2.10 -6.30
1966 12.51 3.37 -2.00 -6.11
1967 12.44 3.42 -1.92 -5.94
1968 12.45 3.50 -1.84 -5.84
1969 12.35 3.47 -1.86 -5.83
1970 12.15 3.40 -1.91 -5.80
1971 12.22 3.49 -1.87 -5.82
1972 12.30 3.60 -1.82 -5.85
1973 12.19 3.57 -1.88 -5.98
1974 12.14 3.57 -1.92 -6.10
1975 12.06 3.56 -1.96 -6.23
1976 11.98 3.53 -2.03 -6.39
1977 11.92 3.51 -2.09 -6.51
1978 11.93 3.54 -2.12 -6.70
1979 11.92 3.54 -2.17 -6.91
1980 11.74 3.45 -2.28 -7.13
1981 11.79 3.48 -2.30 -7.31
1982 11.82 3.51 -2.33 -7.47
1983 11.89 3.56 -2.33 -7.57
1984 11.95 3.61 -2.34 -7.62
1985 11.97 3.62 -2.36 -7.69
1986 12.01 3.65 -2.40 -7.78
1987 12.05 3.66 -2.43 -7.87
1988 12.08 3.68 -2.46 -7.93
1989 12.09 3.67 -2.51 -8.01
1990 12.11 3.68 -2.55 -8.08
1991 12.14 3.69 -2.59 -8.16
1992 12.21 3.72 -2.61 -8.22
1993 12.27 3.75 -2.63 -8.28
1994 12.31 3.77 -2.67 -8.34
1995 12.32 3.77 -2.71 -8.41
1996 12.37 3.79 -2.74 -8.46
1997 12.40 3.80 -2.78 -8.51
1998 12.40 3.79 -2.82 -8.57
1999 12.43 3.80 -2.86 -8.62
2000 12.39 3.77 -2.92 -8.68
2001 12.41 3.77 -2.96 -8.73
2002 12.44 3.78 -3.00 -8.78
2003 12.45 3.78 -3.04 -8.84
2004 12.47 3.78 -3.08 -8.89
2005 12.48 3.77 -3.12 -8.95
2006 12.46 3.75 -3.18 -9.01
2007 12.48 3.75 -3.22 -9.06
2008 12.48 3.73 -3.28 -9.12
2009 12.46 3.70 -3.33 -9.19
2010 12.46 3.68 -3.39 -9.25
2011 12.45 3.66 -3.45 -9.32
2012 12.44 3.63 -3.51 -9.39
2013 12.43 3.60 -3.57 -9.46
2014 12.42 3.57 -3.64 -9.53
2015 12.41 3.54 -3.70 -9.61
2016 12.40 3.50 -3.77 -9.68
2017 12.38 3.46 -3.84 -9.76
2018 12.37 3.43 -3.91 -9.85
2019 12.36 3.38 -3.98 -9.93
2020 12.33 3.34 -4.05 -10.03
2021 12.31 3.29 -4.13 -10.12
2022 12.29 3.24 -4.21 -10.22
2023 12.26 3.18 -4.29 -10.32
2024 12.24 3.13 -4.37 -10.42
2025 12.21 3.08 -4.46 -10.52
2026 12.18 3.02 -4.54 -10.62
2027 12.16 2.97 -4.62 -10.73
2028 12.13 2.91 -4.70 -10.83
2029 12.10 2.86 -4.78 -10.93
2030 12.08 2.80 -4.86 -11.04
2031 12.05 2.75 -4.95 -11.14
2032 12.03 2.69 -5.03 -11.25
2033 12.00 2.64 -5.10 -11.35
2034 11.98 2.59 -5.18 -11.45
2035 11.96 2.54 -5.26 -11.55
2036 11.95 2.50 -5.33 -11.65
2037 11.93 2.45 -5.40 -11.75
2038 11.92 2.41 -5.47 -11.85
2039 11.91 2.36 -5.54 -11.94
2040 11.90 2.33 -5.61 -12.03
2041 11.90 2.29 -5.67 -12.13
2042 11.89 2.25 -5.73 -12.22
2043 11.89 2.22 -5.79 -12.30
2044 11.89 2.18 -5.85 -12.39
2045 11.89 2.15 -5.91 -12.47
2046 11.89 2.12 -5.96 -12.56
2047 11.89 2.10 -6.02 -12.64
2048 11.90 2.07 -6.07 -12.72
2049 11.90 2.04 -6.12 -12.79
2050 11.91 2.02 -6.17 -12.87
2051 11.92 2.00 -6.21 -12.94
2052 11.93 1.98 -6.26 -13.01
2053 11.94 1.96 -6.30 -13.08
2054 11.95 1.94 -6.34 -13.14
2055 11.97 1.93 -6.38 -13.20
2056 11.98 1.91 -6.41 -13.26
2057 12.00 1.90 -6.45 -13.32
2058 12.01 1.89 -6.48 -13.38
2059 12.03 1.88 -6.52 -13.43
2060 12.04 1.87 -6.55 -13.49
2061 12.06 1.85 -6.58 -13.54
2062 12.08 1.85 -6.61 -13.59
2063 12.10 1.84 -6.64 -13.64
2064 12.12 1.83 -6.67 -13.68
2065 12.13 1.82 -6.70 -13.73
2066 12.15 1.81 -6.72 -13.77
2067 12.18 1.81 -6.75 -13.81
2068 12.20 1.80 -6.77 -13.85
2069 12.22 1.80 -6.80 -13.89
2070 12.24 1.80 -6.82 -13.93
2071 12.26 1.79 -6.84 -13.96
2072 12.29 1.79 -6.87 -14.00
2073 12.31 1.78 -6.89 -14.03
2074 12.33 1.78 -6.91 -14.07
2075 12.35 1.78 -6.93 -14.10
2076 12.38 1.77 -6.96 -14.14
2077 12.40 1.77 -6.98 -14.17
2078 12.42 1.77 -7.00 -14.21
2079 12.45 1.77 -7.02 -14.24
2080 12.47 1.77 -7.04 -14.27
2081 12.49 1.76 -7.06 -14.31
2082 12.51 1.76 -7.08 -14.34
2083 12.54 1.76 -7.10 -14.37
2084 12.56 1.75 -7.12 -14.40
2085 12.58 1.75 -7.14 -14.44
2086 12.60 1.75 -7.16 -14.47
2087 12.63 1.75 -7.18 -14.50
2088 12.65 1.74 -7.20 -14.53
2089 12.67 1.74 -7.22 -14.56
2090 12.69 1.74 -7.24 -14.60
2091 12.72 1.74 -7.26 -14.63
2092 12.74 1.73 -7.28 -14.66
2093 12.76 1.73 -7.30 -14.69
2094 12.78 1.73 -7.32 -14.72
2095 12.80 1.73 -7.34 -14.75
2096 12.83 1.72 -7.36 -14.78
2097 12.85 1.72 -7.38 -14.82
2098 12.87 1.72 -7.40 -14.85
2099 12.89 1.72 -7.42 -14.88
2100 12.92 1.71 -7.44 -14.91
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 12. OASI real internal rates of return projected under present law as estimated in the present analysis; Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar [AYT] (2001); and Goss (2001), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Cohort Present Analysis [After
OASI portion of tax]		 AYT (2001) [Median,
after tax]		 Goss (2001) [Pre tax] Goss (2001) [After tax]
1941 2.837 2.7708 . . . . . .
1949 2.743 2.3415 . . . . . .
1959 2.580 2.3954 . . . . . .
1969 2.541 2.6145 . . . . . .
1979 2.501 2.5395 . . . . . .
1984 2.536 . . . 2.65 2.49
1989 2.584 2.5919 . . . . . .
1999 2.698 2.6154 . . . . . .
SOURCE: Anderson, Yamagata, and Tuljapurkar (2001), Goss (2001), and author's calculations. The legend notation is clarified in the text.
NOTE: . . . = not applicable.
Table equivalent for Chart 13. OASI real internal rates of return projected under present law in the present analysis and Leimer (1994), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Cohort Present analysis Leimer (1994)
1901 10.87 11.10
1902 10.48 10.71
1903 10.33 10.63
1904 9.88 10.21
1905 9.44 9.80
1906 9.06 9.45
1907 8.95 9.35
1908 8.58 9.02
1909 8.17 8.62
1910 7.92 8.38
1911 7.83 8.31
1912 7.45 7.90
1913 7.32 7.80
1914 6.95 7.40
1915 6.82 7.30
1916 6.65 7.11
1917 6.33 6.87
1918 5.91 6.35
1919 5.58 6.15
1920 5.38 5.68
1921 5.10 5.35
1922 4.95 5.42
1923 4.75 5.11
1924 4.55 4.81
1925 4.45 4.82
1926 4.25 4.59
1927 4.11 4.31
1928 3.91 4.31
1929 3.73 4.22
1930 3.63 3.95
1931 3.55 3.96
1932 3.48 3.74
1933 3.26 3.63
1934 3.23 3.51
1935 3.07 3.33
1936 3.00 3.24
1937 3.13 3.20
1938 2.97 2.96
1939 2.95 2.83
1940 2.88 2.68
1941 2.84 2.62
1942 2.65 2.39
1943 2.65 2.33
1944 2.75 2.33
1945 2.72 2.29
1946 2.67 2.24
1947 2.62 2.21
1948 2.68 2.13
1949 2.74 2.17
1950 2.76 2.18
1951 2.71 2.16
1952 2.71 2.12
1953 2.74 2.12
1954 2.73 2.09
1955 2.69 2.04
1956 2.67 2.02
1957 2.64 1.98
1958 2.63 1.92
1959 2.58 1.87
1960 2.50 1.84
1961 2.53 1.84
1962 2.52 1.81
1963 2.55 1.83
1964 2.53 1.80
1965 2.54 1.78
1966 2.55 1.81
1967 2.55 1.85
1968 2.56 1.90
1969 2.54 1.94
1970 2.51 1.94
1971 2.53 1.83
1972 2.54 1.73
1973 2.53 1.80
1974 2.52 1.87
1975 2.51 1.87
1976 2.50 1.89
1977 2.49 1.90
1978 2.50 1.88
1979 2.50 1.90
1980 2.48 1.87
1981 2.49 1.83
1982 2.50 1.82
1983 2.52 1.78
1984 2.54 1.80
1985 2.55 1.82
1986 2.56 1.79
1987 2.57 1.79
1988 2.58 1.81
1989 2.58 1.82
1990 2.59 1.80
1991 2.60 1.73
1992 2.62 1.73
1993 2.63 1.73
1994 2.64 1.73
1995 2.65 1.73
1996 2.67 1.73
1997 2.68 1.73
1998 2.69 1.73
1999 2.70 1.74
2000 2.70 1.74
2001 2.71 1.74
2002 2.73 1.74
2003 2.74 1.75
2004 2.75 1.75
2005 2.76 1.75
2006 2.77 1.75
2007 2.78 1.75
2008 2.79 1.75
2009 2.80 1.75
2010 2.81 1.75
2011 2.82 1.75
2012 2.83 1.75
2013 2.84 1.75
2014 2.85 1.75
2015 2.85 1.75
2016 2.86 1.75
2017 2.87 1.75
2018 2.88 1.75
2019 2.89 1.75
2020 2.90 1.74
2021 2.90 1.74
2022 2.91 1.74
2023 2.92 1.74
2024 2.92 1.74
2025 2.93 1.74
2026 2.93 1.74
2027 2.94 1.74
2028 2.95 1.73
2029 2.95 1.73
2030 2.96 1.73
2031 2.96 1.73
2032 2.97 1.73
2033 2.97 1.73
2034 2.98 1.73
2035 2.98 1.73
2036 2.99 1.73
2037 2.99 1.72
2038 3.00 1.72
2039 3.00 1.72
2040 3.01 1.72
2041 3.01 1.72
2042 3.02 1.72
2043 3.02 1.72
2044 3.03 1.72
2045 3.03 1.72
2046 3.04 1.71
2047 3.04 1.71
2048 3.05 1.71
2049 3.05 1.71
2050 3.06 1.71
SOURCE: Leimer (1994) and author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 14. OASI real internal rates of return projected under the balanced budget award policy in the present analysis and Leimer (1994), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Cohort Present analysis Leimer (1994)
1901 10.87 11.10
1902 10.48 10.71
1903 10.33 10.63
1904 9.88 10.21
1905 9.44 9.80
1906 9.06 9.45
1907 8.95 9.35
1908 8.58 9.02
1909 8.17 8.62
1910 7.92 8.38
1911 7.83 8.31
1912 7.45 7.90
1913 7.32 7.80
1914 6.95 7.40
1915 6.82 7.30
1916 6.65 7.11
1917 6.33 6.87
1918 5.91 6.35
1919 5.58 6.15
1920 5.38 5.68
1921 5.10 5.35
1922 4.95 5.42
1923 4.75 5.11
1924 4.55 4.81
1925 4.45 4.82
1926 4.25 4.59
1927 4.11 4.31
1928 3.91 4.31
1929 3.73 4.21
1930 3.63 3.95
1931 3.55 3.95
1932 3.48 3.74
1933 3.26 3.64
1934 3.23 3.51
1935 3.07 3.33
1936 2.99 3.24
1937 3.13 3.20
1938 2.97 2.96
1939 2.95 2.83
1940 2.88 2.68
1941 2.84 2.62
1942 2.64 2.39
1943 2.65 2.33
1944 2.74 2.33
1945 2.71 2.29
1946 2.67 2.24
1947 2.62 2.21
1948 2.67 2.13
1949 2.73 2.17
1950 2.73 2.18
1951 2.67 2.15
1952 2.65 2.12
1953 2.66 2.12
1954 2.61 2.08
1955 2.54 2.03
1956 2.49 2.00
1957 2.44 1.95
1958 2.40 1.88
1959 2.32 1.82
1960 2.20 1.78
1961 2.20 1.77
1962 2.17 1.72
1963 2.16 1.72
1964 2.12 1.69
1965 2.09 1.65
1966 2.07 1.67
1967 2.04 1.70
1968 2.01 1.73
1969 1.97 1.76
1970 1.91 1.75
1971 1.89 1.62
1972 1.88 1.51
1973 1.84 1.56
1974 1.80 1.62
1975 1.77 1.61
1976 1.73 1.61
1977 1.69 1.61
1978 1.67 1.57
1979 1.65 1.57
1980 1.60 1.53
1981 1.59 1.48
1982 1.58 1.45
1983 1.57 1.40
1984 1.57 1.41
1985 1.56 1.42
1986 1.55 1.37
1987 1.54 1.36
1988 1.53 1.36
1989 1.51 1.36
1990 1.50 1.32
1991 1.49 1.23
1992 1.49 1.22
1993 1.48 1.20
1994 1.48 1.18
1995 1.47 1.17
1996 1.46 1.16
1997 1.46 1.15
1998 1.45 1.13
1999 1.44 1.12
2000 1.43 1.11
2001 1.42 1.10
2002 1.42 1.08
2003 1.41 1.07
2004 1.41 1.06
2005 1.40 1.04
2006 1.40 1.03
2007 1.39 1.01
2008 1.39 1.00
2009 1.38 0.98
2010 1.38 0.97
2011 1.37 0.95
2012 1.37 0.93
2013 1.37 0.92
2014 1.37 0.90
2015 1.37 0.89
2016 1.37 0.87
2017 1.37 0.86
2018 1.37 0.85
2019 1.37 0.84
2020 1.37 0.84
2021 1.37 0.83
2022 1.37 0.83
2023 1.38 0.83
2024 1.38 0.83
2025 1.38 0.83
2026 1.39 0.83
2027 1.39 0.82
2028 1.39 0.81
2029 1.39 0.81
2030 1.39 0.81
2031 1.38 0.81
2032 1.38 0.81
2033 1.38 0.81
2034 1.37 0.81
2035 1.37 0.81
2036 1.36 0.81
2037 1.36 0.81
2038 1.36 0.81
2039 1.36 0.81
2040 1.35 0.81
2041 1.35 0.81
2042 1.35 0.80
2043 1.35 0.80
2044 1.35 0.80
2045 1.35 0.80
2046 1.35 0.80
2047 1.35 0.80
2048 1.35 0.80
2049 1.35 0.80
2050 1.35 0.80
SOURCE: Leimer (1994) and author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 15. OASI real internal rates of return projected under the balanced budget tax policy in the present analysis and Leimer (1994), expressed as percents, by birth cohort
Cohort Present analysis Leimer (1994)
1901 10.87 11.10
1902 10.48 10.71
1903 10.33 10.63
1904 9.88 10.21
1905 9.44 9.80
1906 9.06 9.45
1907 8.95 9.35
1908 8.58 9.02
1909 8.17 8.62
1910 7.92 8.38
1911 7.83 8.31
1912 7.45 7.90
1913 7.32 7.80
1914 6.95 7.40
1915 6.82 7.30
1916 6.65 7.11
1917 6.33 6.87
1918 5.91 6.35
1919 5.58 6.15
1920 5.38 5.68
1921 5.10 5.35
1922 4.95 5.42
1923 4.75 5.11
1924 4.55 4.81
1925 4.45 4.81
1926 4.25 4.59
1927 4.11 4.31
1928 3.91 4.31
1929 3.73 4.22
1930 3.63 3.95
1931 3.55 3.96
1932 3.48 3.74
1933 3.26 3.63
1934 3.23 3.51
1935 3.07 3.33
1936 2.99 3.24
1937 3.13 3.20
1938 2.97 2.96
1939 2.95 2.83
1940 2.88 2.68
1941 2.84 2.62
1942 2.64 2.39
1943 2.65 2.33
1944 2.74 2.33
1945 2.71 2.29
1946 2.66 2.24
1947 2.62 2.21
1948 2.68 2.14
1949 2.74 2.17
1950 2.75 2.18
1951 2.70 2.16
1952 2.70 2.12
1953 2.73 2.12
1954 2.71 2.09
1955 2.67 2.04
1956 2.65 2.02
1957 2.62 1.98
1958 2.60 1.91
1959 2.55 1.86
1960 2.46 1.84
1961 2.48 1.84
1962 2.48 1.81
1963 2.49 1.83
1964 2.47 1.80
1965 2.47 1.77
1966 2.47 1.80
1967 2.46 1.84
1968 2.46 1.89
1969 2.44 1.93
1970 2.40 1.92
1971 2.40 1.79
1972 2.41 1.71
1973 2.38 1.76
1974 2.36 1.84
1975 2.34 1.83
1976 2.32 1.84
1977 2.30 1.85
1978 2.30 1.82
1979 2.28 1.83
1980 2.25 1.80
1981 2.24 1.76
1982 2.24 1.73
1983 2.24 1.69
1984 2.24 1.70
1985 2.24 1.72
1986 2.23 1.67
1987 2.23 1.67
1988 2.22 1.67
1989 2.21 1.67
1990 2.20 1.65
1991 2.20 1.56
1992 2.20 1.55
1993 2.19 1.54
1994 2.19 1.53
1995 2.18 1.53
1996 2.18 1.51
1997 2.17 1.51
1998 2.16 1.50
1999 2.15 1.50
2000 2.14 1.48
2001 2.13 1.47
2002 2.13 1.47
2003 2.12 1.45
2004 2.11 1.45
2005 2.10 1.43
2006 2.09 1.42
2007 2.08 1.41
2008 2.07 1.40
2009 2.06 1.39
2010 2.05 1.38
2011 2.03 1.36
2012 2.02 1.35
2013 2.01 1.34
2014 2.00 1.33
2015 1.99 1.32
2016 1.97 1.30
2017 1.96 1.29
2018 1.95 1.28
2019 1.93 1.27
2020 1.92 1.26
2021 1.90 1.24
2022 1.89 1.23
2023 1.88 1.22
2024 1.86 1.21
2025 1.85 1.19
2026 1.83 1.18
2027 1.82 1.17
2028 1.80 1.16
2029 1.79 1.15
2030 1.78 1.13
2031 1.76 1.12
2032 1.75 1.11
2033 1.74 1.10
2034 1.73 1.09
2035 1.72 1.08
2036 1.70 1.07
2037 1.69 1.05
2038 1.68 1.04
2039 1.67 1.03
2040 1.67 1.02
2041 1.66 1.02
2042 1.65 1.00
2043 1.64 1.00
2044 1.63 0.99
2045 1.63 0.99
2046 1.62 0.97
2047 1.61 0.97
2048 1.61 0.95
2049 1.60 0.95
2050 1.60 0.94
SOURCE: Leimer (1994) and author's calculations.