Correlation Patterns between Primary and Secondary Diagnosis Codes in the Social Security Disability Programs

Javier Meseguer
ORES Working Paper No. 113 (released June 2018)
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Estimated incidence probabilites of allowance of initial claims for disability benefits, by age and selected diagnosis, 2009
Age Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed
  Panel A: 1890 - Kidney cancer (malignant)
18 76.92 64.71 88.89 50.00
19 74.68 63.00 87.14 0.00
20 72.50 61.05 84.89 100.00
21 70.74 59.76 82.44 0.00
22 68.97 57.74 80.65 57.14
23 67.39 56.40 78.71 83.33
24 65.24 53.71 75.74 75.00
25 63.70 53.58 75.00 85.71
26 62.26 52.40 72.22 33.33
27 61.05 51.64 70.78 40.00
28 60.00 50.85 68.80 28.57
29 58.73 49.21 67.94 42.86
30 57.70 49.15 66.97 50.00
31 57.24 48.18 65.72 50.00
32 56.52 48.18 65.23 66.67
33 55.91 47.49 63.99 50.00
34 55.36 47.79 63.67 50.00
35 55.32 47.33 63.51 41.18
36 55.37 47.64 63.02 61.90
37 55.56 48.00 62.93 50.00
38 55.66 48.17 62.74 57.14
39 56.16 49.24 63.03 61.29
40 56.71 49.79 63.51 65.38
41 57.35 50.39 64.29 45.16
42 58.13 51.49 64.51 58.70
43 59.27 53.12 65.73 71.43
44 60.51 54.25 66.56 62.26
45 61.77 55.73 67.50 60.81
46 62.96 57.20 68.79 71.79
47 64.38 58.49 70.44 58.43
48 66.25 60.33 71.57 64.77
49 68.12 62.58 73.29 66.98
50 69.79 64.31 74.89 72.32
51 71.81 66.50 76.51 72.48
52 73.69 68.55 78.18 77.71
53 75.71 70.69 80.27 75.32
54 77.78 73.20 81.95 82.28
55 79.74 75.47 83.88 86.71
56 81.85 77.64 85.66 78.92
57 83.88 79.95 87.29 89.70
58 85.75 82.26 88.92 86.43
59 87.61 84.29 90.52 90.05
60 89.40 86.37 91.96 88.89
61 91.00 88.20 93.21 88.39
62 92.43 89.99 94.53 87.72
63 93.77 91.65 95.59 89.19
64 94.97 93.21 96.54 87.93
65 96.00 94.36 97.33 94.64
  Panel B: 2940 - Organic mental disorders
18 45.11 43.46 46.64 32.51
19 43.03 41.34 44.53 28.67
20 41.08 39.57 42.56 28.27
21 39.32 37.86 40.73 29.52
22 37.72 36.30 39.07 34.16
23 36.28 34.93 37.57 33.89
24 34.96 33.62 36.27 30.88
25 33.82 32.49 34.97 30.69
26 32.77 31.48 33.95 28.15
27 31.86 30.66 33.11 26.12
28 31.13 29.91 32.32 29.17
29 30.49 29.30 31.74 28.96
30 30.00 28.81 31.21 29.94
31 29.62 28.42 30.87 30.28
32 29.41 28.15 30.61 28.01
33 29.29 28.08 30.47 27.94
34 29.23 28.05 30.50 33.43
35 29.39 28.13 30.65 28.38
36 29.61 28.32 30.98 34.24
37 29.98 28.70 31.26 35.16
38 30.48 29.14 31.79 31.86
39 31.05 29.77 32.40 32.57
40 31.81 30.37 33.21 37.27
41 32.68 31.33 34.17 35.87
42 33.72 32.37 35.14 39.10
43 34.87 33.42 36.36 37.82
44 36.14 34.66 37.68 37.53
45 37.60 36.12 39.16 40.69
46 39.22 37.71 40.78 41.82
47 41.03 39.50 42.60 40.36
48 42.92 41.34 44.51 41.40
49 44.96 43.37 46.55 45.93
50 47.23 45.64 48.83 47.71
51 49.58 48.03 51.12 50.98
52 52.10 50.46 53.71 52.78
53 54.74 53.15 56.37 52.45
54 57.51 55.98 59.13 59.52
55 60.39 58.71 61.88 65.67
56 63.26 61.82 64.91 68.53
57 66.31 64.74 67.87 71.70
58 69.29 67.87 70.75 72.20
59 72.30 70.81 73.64 72.97
60 75.25 73.92 76.67 74.34
61 78.16 76.85 79.41 76.62
62 80.93 79.71 82.23 79.15
63 83.61 82.39 84.75 79.65
64 86.07 85.01 87.12 84.30
65 88.31 87.30 89.34 82.11
  Panel C: 2960 - Affective and mood disorders
18 28.08 26.96 29.45 28.96
19 26.32 25.29 27.49 25.67
20 24.73 23.76 25.78 23.47
21 23.25 22.37 24.20 23.25
22 21.95 21.10 22.78 22.99
23 20.76 20.07 21.52 21.41
24 19.73 19.11 20.43 20.99
25 18.84 18.26 19.46 20.39
26 18.03 17.48 18.62 19.51
27 17.34 16.83 17.84 18.88
28 16.74 16.24 17.24 18.43
29 16.23 15.79 16.72 17.91
30 15.82 15.39 16.28 17.86
31 15.52 15.09 15.93 17.44
32 15.29 14.89 15.69 17.96
33 15.14 14.73 15.53 17.14
34 15.04 14.66 15.44 17.85
35 15.05 14.67 15.44 18.69
36 15.13 14.70 15.56 18.40
37 15.30 14.89 15.73 18.01
38 15.55 15.13 15.96 18.63
39 15.88 15.45 16.28 17.83
40 16.30 15.85 16.72 18.27
41 16.78 16.34 17.25 17.91
42 17.39 16.92 17.84 18.07
43 18.09 17.62 18.61 18.25
44 18.92 18.41 19.35 17.70
45 19.82 19.31 20.36 17.72
46 20.88 20.34 21.40 18.47
47 22.06 21.55 22.57 18.90
48 23.36 22.84 23.94 19.05
49 24.83 24.27 25.40 19.25
50 26.47 25.86 27.04 23.69
51 28.27 27.67 28.86 24.97
52 30.19 29.58 30.81 25.94
53 32.37 31.69 33.01 25.98
54 34.67 34.03 35.34 30.58
55 37.15 36.42 37.86 40.91
56 39.84 39.14 40.63 43.31
57 42.70 41.94 43.54 44.16
58 45.72 44.89 46.59 44.93
59 48.91 48.08 49.85 46.64
60 52.26 51.27 53.22 48.69
61 55.72 54.72 56.69 50.09
62 59.18 58.17 60.21 48.93
63 62.77 61.60 63.89 50.90
64 66.39 65.22 67.57 54.35
65 69.97 68.78 71.15 50.28
  Panel D: 4280 - Heart failure
18 55.00 50.05 60.39 66.67
19 52.67 47.71 57.70 40.00
20 50.39 45.72 55.30 55.56
21 48.24 43.98 53.00 55.56
22 46.33 42.13 50.90 48.57
23 44.36 40.58 48.69 47.73
24 42.79 38.59 46.99 38.46
25 41.55 37.56 45.59 41.67
26 40.00 36.26 43.96 36.76
27 38.94 35.28 42.60 53.16
28 37.82 34.29 41.32 28.74
29 36.82 33.33 40.50 42.11
30 36.22 32.76 39.49 36.36
31 35.55 32.22 38.79 35.90
32 35.09 31.76 38.47 36.29
33 34.64 31.65 37.95 41.09
34 34.47 31.73 37.54 45.86
35 34.38 31.52 37.43 37.28
36 34.59 31.59 37.34 33.85
37 34.74 32.01 37.54 39.20
38 35.04 32.27 37.76 40.28
39 35.41 32.70 38.22 46.73
40 36.05 33.26 38.85 40.14
41 36.77 34.16 39.52 36.56
42 37.68 35.00 40.33 38.48
43 38.78 36.18 41.28 43.94
44 39.88 37.27 42.21 44.11
45 41.26 38.72 43.61 38.73
46 42.82 40.32 45.18 36.84
47 44.37 41.83 46.96 39.01
48 46.18 43.61 48.63 39.14
49 48.08 45.67 50.36 44.02
50 50.10 47.63 52.49 52.48
51 52.33 50.03 54.80 59.68
52 54.81 52.53 57.06 59.05
53 57.29 55.18 59.43 58.41
54 59.94 57.63 61.98 64.08
55 62.58 60.35 64.63 72.62
56 65.32 63.29 67.43 72.33
57 68.16 66.10 69.93 74.08
58 71.02 69.13 72.75 77.39
59 73.84 72.13 75.52 77.36
60 76.66 74.84 78.15 77.13
61 79.34 77.73 80.98 77.51
62 82.01 80.53 83.43 74.30
63 84.48 83.13 85.73 79.08
64 86.82 85.57 87.95 82.86
65 88.94 87.79 90.02 83.52
  Panel E: 8060 - Fracture of vertebral column
18 68.12 63.65 72.48 70.59
19 66.16 61.64 70.69 89.66
20 64.34 59.71 69.04 69.39
21 62.58 57.61 67.33 76.47
22 60.96 56.05 65.73 71.28
23 59.48 54.34 64.43 76.92
24 58.16 53.26 62.77 70.97
25 56.83 51.99 61.72 65.82
26 55.76 50.78 60.63 65.00
27 54.74 49.71 59.86 65.52
28 54.01 48.86 59.15 63.64
29 53.32 48.13 58.35 57.69
30 52.74 47.42 57.85 47.76
31 52.51 47.22 57.63 49.23
32 52.31 46.90 57.40 48.33
33 52.07 46.68 57.26 65.96
34 52.23 46.78 57.36 45.90
35 52.20 46.71 57.52 60.98
36 52.58 47.16 58.08 58.06
37 53.19 47.53 58.38 56.94
38 53.64 48.12 59.25 60.00
39 54.53 48.78 60.00 65.98
40 55.34 50.00 61.04 60.71
41 56.33 50.76 61.98 54.29
42 57.52 51.63 63.07 57.69
43 58.99 52.92 64.41 58.51
44 60.40 54.60 65.88 60.00
45 61.75 55.92 67.45 60.92
46 63.71 57.79 69.25 57.50
47 65.60 59.62 71.16 69.07
48 67.17 61.49 72.85 55.14
49 69.17 63.76 74.55 65.52
50 71.28 65.69 76.49 71.56
51 73.47 67.83 78.49 68.93
52 75.57 70.08 80.49 75.28
53 77.60 72.52 82.71 74.42
54 79.90 74.64 84.35 72.16
55 81.85 76.96 86.34 76.24
56 83.99 79.95 87.95 81.25
57 85.91 81.68 89.79 77.01
58 87.88 83.88 91.60 82.26
59 89.53 85.89 92.91 87.50
60 91.21 87.65 94.13 84.81
61 92.66 89.48 95.34 89.01
62 94.01 91.20 96.36 80.00
63 95.13 92.54 97.27 85.45
64 96.20 93.94 98.01 76.92
65 97.04 95.11 98.63 88.46
  Panel F: 3450 - Epilepsy
18 23.25 21.56 24.99 17.39
19 21.53 19.99 23.23 11.41
20 19.93 18.40 21.51 12.91
21 18.58 17.10 20.05 11.61
22 17.33 15.91 18.73 12.78
23 16.25 14.98 17.63 12.04
24 15.30 14.06 16.58 11.19
25 14.43 13.25 15.67 12.23
26 13.70 12.50 14.88 9.46
27 13.05 11.93 14.18 8.79
28 12.48 11.39 13.58 9.68
29 12.04 10.95 13.10 10.03
30 11.66 10.60 12.74 11.35
31 11.35 10.30 12.46 10.31
32 11.12 10.04 12.14 9.63
33 10.96 9.93 12.06 9.87
34 10.86 9.82 11.96 12.55
35 10.81 9.73 11.99 9.17
36 10.92 9.83 11.96 12.60
37 10.96 9.90 12.10 10.52
38 11.15 10.05 12.31 10.98
39 11.39 10.29 12.60 12.13
40 11.69 10.54 12.93 11.99
41 12.10 10.92 13.42 12.36
42 12.60 11.39 13.86 13.70
43 13.20 11.86 14.57 15.36
44 13.85 12.44 15.18 13.29
45 14.58 13.14 16.04 10.04
46 15.45 13.92 17.01 11.92
47 16.44 14.86 18.15 10.91
48 17.58 15.95 19.27 12.04
49 18.92 17.13 20.70 12.32
50 20.24 18.30 22.27 16.73
51 21.84 19.87 23.94 18.75
52 23.65 21.60 25.83 18.33
53 25.59 23.45 27.79 17.80
54 27.78 25.50 30.15 25.30
55 30.19 27.78 32.92 29.32
56 32.75 30.21 35.33 36.96
57 35.54 32.86 38.25 34.20
58 38.61 35.64 41.43 34.46
59 41.77 38.91 44.74 38.07
60 45.22 42.00 48.36 38.90
61 48.86 45.52 52.15 43.05
62 52.69 49.11 55.95 42.32
63 56.40 52.99 59.78 45.13
64 60.50 56.97 64.04 54.31
65 64.41 60.57 67.95 55.56
SOURCE: Author's calculations using DRF 100% extract (for descriptive statistics) and MVP estimation model fitted to a DRF 10% random sample (for probability estimates).
NOTES: The upper and lower bounds are the 95th percentile and 5th percentile values, respectively, of the posterior predictive distribution.
Data are for applicants who cleared step 1 of the disability determination process.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Men as a percentage of initial disability-benefit claimants, by age, 2009
Age Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed
18 54.43 53.26 55.52 53.24
19 54.07 53.02 55.09 52.56
20 53.69 52.69 54.72 53.22
21 53.38 52.51 54.34 54.89
22 53.10 52.30 53.96 54.91
23 52.84 52.03 53.59 54.36
24 52.57 51.80 53.28 53.60
25 52.32 51.63 53.00 53.38
26 52.09 51.48 52.77 52.83
27 51.91 51.30 52.51 52.15
28 51.73 51.17 52.29 51.18
29 51.58 51.04 52.12 50.25
30 51.43 50.92 51.91 50.80
31 51.32 50.84 51.82 50.71
32 51.24 50.71 51.72 50.04
33 51.15 50.67 51.63 50.39
34 51.10 50.63 51.52 50.56
35 51.05 50.61 51.48 50.24
36 51.04 50.59 51.47 50.65
37 51.05 50.59 51.48 50.66
38 51.06 50.62 51.49 50.84
39 51.12 50.65 51.55 51.35
40 51.16 50.68 51.61 51.56
41 51.26 50.80 51.70 51.79
42 51.36 50.90 51.81 52.19
43 51.49 51.04 51.90 52.14
44 51.65 51.20 52.06 52.44
45 51.80 51.37 52.21 51.93
46 51.99 51.56 52.40 52.29
47 52.19 51.78 52.61 52.29
48 52.41 51.99 52.82 52.76
49 52.66 52.27 53.08 52.97
50 52.93 52.53 53.31 52.69
51 53.21 52.84 53.61 52.98
52 53.53 53.10 53.89 53.15
53 53.84 53.44 54.28 53.41
54 54.18 53.83 54.58 53.95
55 54.55 54.15 54.95 54.24
56 54.95 54.54 55.34 54.74
57 55.33 54.94 55.77 55.03
58 55.77 55.29 56.19 55.45
59 56.22 55.73 56.68 56.13
60 56.66 56.17 57.22 56.45
61 57.16 56.61 57.71 57.72
62 57.66 57.06 58.24 57.97
63 58.18 57.54 58.82 57.51
64 58.71 57.99 59.40 58.92
65 59.27 58.54 60.05 60.38
SOURCE: Author's calculations using DRF 100% extract (for descriptive statistics) and MVP estimation model fitted to a DRF 10% random sample (for probability estimates).
NOTES: The upper and lower bounds are the 95th percentile and 5th percentile values, respectively, of the posterior predictive distribution.
Data are for applicants who cleared step 1 of the disability determination process.
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Estimated incidence probabilities of selected diagnoses for initial disability-benefit claimants, by age and sex, 2009
Age Men Women
Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed
  Panel A: 2960 - Affective and mood disorders
18 31.83 29.85 34.02 28.07 43.76 41.36 46.09 40.03
19 32.70 30.80 34.73 27.54 44.64 42.50 46.85 44.23
20 33.51 31.65 35.37 30.98 45.59 43.55 47.47 44.27
21 34.19 32.55 35.97 33.53 46.33 44.47 48.12 45.42
22 34.86 33.35 36.46 32.02 47.02 45.44 48.64 46.57
23 35.44 34.11 36.91 32.32 47.65 46.18 49.16 47.84
24 35.97 34.74 37.40 33.49 48.19 46.84 49.60 48.84
25 36.41 35.22 37.61 34.49 48.70 47.43 50.00 50.18
26 36.77 35.66 37.98 36.05 49.06 47.93 50.32 51.05
27 37.11 36.06 38.19 36.13 49.38 48.29 50.56 52.36
28 37.32 36.32 38.29 37.17 49.63 48.59 50.71 52.63
29 37.49 36.54 38.45 37.42 49.79 48.81 50.85 52.40
30 37.57 36.68 38.52 37.92 49.84 48.96 50.90 52.35
31 37.56 36.67 38.50 36.93 49.89 49.00 50.89 51.96
32 37.52 36.63 38.45 36.77 49.83 48.87 50.79 51.41
33 37.40 36.45 38.32 36.48 49.69 48.73 50.65 50.20
34 37.18 36.31 38.12 37.51 49.47 48.49 50.48 50.45
35 36.89 35.97 37.81 35.70 49.15 48.19 50.19 50.18
36 36.53 35.65 37.43 35.68 48.81 47.83 49.76 49.29
37 36.11 35.15 37.02 35.49 48.32 47.35 49.35 49.17
38 35.61 34.68 36.53 34.09 47.77 46.82 48.73 48.02
39 35.01 34.18 35.93 34.30 47.18 46.19 48.24 46.95
40 34.40 33.50 35.37 33.03 46.48 45.50 47.53 46.18
41 33.67 32.79 34.55 32.97 45.73 44.72 46.74 45.60
42 32.93 32.05 33.78 33.45 44.89 43.92 45.91 44.62
43 32.07 31.25 32.96 31.43 43.99 43.09 44.87 42.90
44 31.21 30.41 32.05 30.11 43.01 42.06 43.94 42.99
45 30.24 29.46 31.11 30.01 41.98 41.10 42.82 41.43
46 29.27 28.52 30.04 29.17 40.83 39.96 41.66 40.78
47 28.21 27.52 28.94 28.96 39.62 38.79 40.48 40.06
48 27.10 26.44 27.74 28.22 38.37 37.61 39.19 39.20
49 25.94 25.34 26.57 26.80 37.04 36.35 37.79 37.78
50 24.79 24.19 25.39 24.58 35.68 34.97 36.40 35.76
51 23.58 23.02 24.21 23.44 34.23 33.57 34.96 34.41
52 22.33 21.81 22.93 22.61 32.75 32.10 33.44 33.46
53 21.10 20.58 21.65 21.54 31.23 30.54 31.92 31.93
54 19.84 19.28 20.39 20.13 29.68 28.95 30.41 30.41
55 18.56 18.05 19.17 17.56 28.09 27.40 28.85 29.08
56 17.29 16.74 17.90 16.50 26.47 25.75 27.28 26.78
57 16.04 15.42 16.67 15.36 24.87 24.02 25.70 25.58
58 14.80 14.16 15.50 14.35 23.27 22.37 24.15 23.87
59 13.57 12.89 14.32 14.00 21.60 20.70 22.52 21.93
60 12.40 11.65 13.14 13.26 19.99 19.00 21.03 19.88
61 11.24 10.49 12.01 12.01 18.42 17.32 19.52 17.85
62 10.13 9.36 10.95 9.91 16.88 15.76 18.05 14.51
63 9.09 8.26 9.91 7.98 15.37 14.18 16.57 12.99
64 8.10 7.25 8.94 6.89 13.89 12.76 15.09 11.16
65 7.16 6.33 8.00 5.83 12.48 11.25 13.76 10.25
  Panel B: 2950 - Schizophrenic and other psychotic disorders
18 8.14 7.22 9.30 3.61 5.05 4.38 5.88 2.59
19 7.95 7.08 9.00 7.39 4.93 4.33 5.66 2.55
20 7.74 7.02 8.70 8.22 4.81 4.25 5.44 3.59
21 7.59 6.90 8.34 8.88 4.66 4.16 5.25 3.03
22 7.36 6.76 8.04 8.68 4.53 4.10 5.04 3.30
23 7.15 6.58 7.77 8.88 4.39 3.98 4.85 3.55
24 6.94 6.45 7.51 8.69 4.23 3.87 4.66 3.28
25 6.73 6.29 7.23 8.46 4.10 3.76 4.46 3.06
26 6.51 6.11 7.00 7.78 3.94 3.65 4.27 3.25
27 6.30 5.91 6.73 7.91 3.81 3.51 4.11 3.05
28 6.08 5.70 6.46 7.61 3.66 3.41 3.96 3.32
29 5.86 5.49 6.23 7.12 3.51 3.25 3.77 2.80
30 5.64 5.27 5.99 6.08 3.36 3.12 3.63 2.98
31 5.42 5.06 5.78 6.11 3.22 2.99 3.48 2.67
32 5.19 4.86 5.54 5.70 3.08 2.83 3.32 2.67
33 4.97 4.64 5.32 5.47 2.93 2.69 3.19 2.67
34 4.76 4.42 5.09 4.99 2.78 2.57 3.02 2.22
35 4.53 4.23 4.87 4.66 2.64 2.43 2.86 2.38
36 4.32 4.01 4.63 4.19 2.51 2.31 2.73 2.15
37 4.11 3.83 4.41 4.07 2.37 2.19 2.60 2.22
38 3.91 3.63 4.21 3.59 2.25 2.06 2.46 2.30
39 3.71 3.44 4.00 3.27 2.12 1.93 2.32 2.01
40 3.51 3.24 3.78 3.35 1.99 1.81 2.18 1.96
41 3.33 3.07 3.57 2.99 1.88 1.71 2.05 1.85
42 3.12 2.90 3.36 2.77 1.75 1.60 1.94 2.00
43 2.94 2.72 3.17 2.79 1.64 1.49 1.81 1.77
44 2.76 2.57 2.97 2.42 1.54 1.40 1.68 1.64
45 2.59 2.40 2.80 2.34 1.43 1.30 1.57 1.45
46 2.42 2.24 2.60 2.16 1.33 1.21 1.46 1.68
47 2.26 2.10 2.43 1.91 1.23 1.11 1.35 1.49
48 2.11 1.95 2.25 1.85 1.14 1.03 1.25 1.31
49 1.96 1.82 2.09 1.79 1.06 0.95 1.16 1.30
50 1.82 1.68 1.95 1.61 0.97 0.86 1.08 1.22
51 1.68 1.54 1.81 1.49 0.88 0.80 0.99 1.25
52 1.55 1.43 1.69 1.39 0.81 0.72 0.91 1.02
53 1.43 1.30 1.55 1.34 0.74 0.66 0.84 1.07
54 1.31 1.18 1.43 1.13 0.67 0.59 0.77 1.03
55 1.20 1.06 1.34 1.03 0.62 0.53 0.72 0.90
56 1.10 0.96 1.24 0.92 0.56 0.47 0.65 0.85
57 1.00 0.87 1.14 0.74 0.50 0.43 0.60 0.78
58 0.91 0.77 1.05 0.70 0.45 0.37 0.55 0.67
59 0.82 0.69 0.97 0.54 0.41 0.33 0.50 0.59
60 0.75 0.61 0.90 0.50 0.37 0.29 0.46 0.57
61 0.67 0.54 0.83 0.43 0.33 0.25 0.42 0.49
62 0.60 0.47 0.76 0.35 0.29 0.22 0.38 0.36
63 0.54 0.41 0.70 0.24 0.26 0.18 0.36 0.39
64 0.48 0.36 0.64 0.27 0.23 0.16 0.32 0.39
65 0.43 0.31 0.58 0.26 0.20 0.13 0.29 0.28
  Panel C: 4250 - Cardiomyopathy
18 0.23 0.15 0.36 0.27 0.11 0.07 0.18 0.46
19 0.25 0.16 0.37 0.10 0.12 0.07 0.19 0.27
20 0.27 0.18 0.40 0.22 0.13 0.09 0.20 0.25
21 0.29 0.20 0.41 0.27 0.14 0.09 0.21 0.20
22 0.31 0.22 0.43 0.22 0.15 0.11 0.22 0.32
23 0.34 0.25 0.45 0.30 0.17 0.12 0.23 0.29
24 0.36 0.27 0.48 0.23 0.18 0.13 0.25 0.32
25 0.39 0.30 0.50 0.39 0.19 0.14 0.26 0.46
26 0.42 0.32 0.52 0.29 0.21 0.16 0.27 0.39
27 0.45 0.36 0.55 0.32 0.22 0.17 0.29 0.41
28 0.48 0.38 0.58 0.36 0.24 0.19 0.30 0.41
29 0.51 0.42 0.61 0.35 0.26 0.20 0.31 0.31
30 0.54 0.45 0.63 0.46 0.28 0.22 0.33 0.52
31 0.57 0.49 0.67 0.46 0.29 0.24 0.35 0.53
32 0.61 0.52 0.70 0.56 0.31 0.25 0.37 0.43
33 0.64 0.55 0.73 0.57 0.33 0.27 0.39 0.48
34 0.67 0.59 0.77 0.60 0.35 0.29 0.41 0.46
35 0.71 0.63 0.80 0.71 0.37 0.31 0.43 0.46
36 0.75 0.66 0.85 0.85 0.39 0.33 0.45 0.40
37 0.79 0.70 0.88 0.86 0.41 0.36 0.48 0.44
38 0.83 0.74 0.93 0.82 0.44 0.37 0.50 0.49
39 0.87 0.77 0.97 0.91 0.46 0.40 0.53 0.43
40 0.91 0.81 1.01 0.74 0.48 0.41 0.56 0.44
41 0.95 0.85 1.06 1.05 0.51 0.44 0.59 0.47
42 0.99 0.89 1.10 0.94 0.53 0.46 0.61 0.46
43 1.04 0.93 1.14 0.98 0.56 0.48 0.64 0.49
44 1.08 0.97 1.19 1.19 0.58 0.50 0.65 0.56
45 1.12 1.01 1.23 1.12 0.60 0.53 0.69 0.49
46 1.17 1.06 1.28 1.21 0.63 0.55 0.71 0.58
47 1.21 1.09 1.33 1.23 0.65 0.57 0.74 0.56
48 1.25 1.14 1.37 1.26 0.68 0.60 0.77 0.47
49 1.29 1.19 1.40 1.35 0.70 0.62 0.79 0.50
50 1.34 1.22 1.45 1.51 0.73 0.65 0.82 0.58
51 1.38 1.27 1.50 1.47 0.75 0.67 0.84 0.63
52 1.42 1.31 1.54 1.44 0.78 0.69 0.87 0.61
53 1.47 1.36 1.58 1.52 0.80 0.72 0.89 0.64
54 1.51 1.40 1.62 1.50 0.83 0.74 0.92 0.60
55 1.55 1.44 1.66 1.79 0.85 0.76 0.94 0.75
56 1.59 1.47 1.70 1.71 0.88 0.79 0.97 0.75
57 1.63 1.51 1.75 1.81 0.90 0.81 1.00 0.77
58 1.67 1.54 1.79 1.96 0.92 0.82 1.02 0.80
59 1.71 1.57 1.84 1.84 0.94 0.84 1.05 0.79
60 1.74 1.60 1.90 1.80 0.96 0.86 1.09 0.81
61 1.78 1.61 1.95 1.87 0.99 0.87 1.12 0.94
62 1.81 1.63 2.03 1.90 1.01 0.88 1.15 0.83
63 1.85 1.63 2.09 2.06 1.03 0.88 1.18 1.05
64 1.87 1.65 2.13 2.37 1.05 0.89 1.22 1.26
65 1.90 1.65 2.21 2.01 1.06 0.88 1.26 1.24
  Panel D: 7140 - Rheumatoid arthritis
18 0.26 0.17 0.37 0.40 0.70 0.50 0.96 0.76
19 0.27 0.18 0.37 0.20 0.73 0.52 0.97 0.65
20 0.28 0.20 0.39 0.27 0.76 0.56 1.00 0.90
21 0.29 0.21 0.39 0.20 0.79 0.59 1.01 1.16
22 0.31 0.23 0.41 0.41 0.82 0.64 1.04 0.81
23 0.32 0.24 0.41 0.18 0.85 0.67 1.06 1.10
24 0.33 0.26 0.42 0.27 0.89 0.71 1.07 1.03
25 0.35 0.27 0.43 0.22 0.92 0.75 1.10 0.92
26 0.36 0.28 0.45 0.23 0.95 0.79 1.13 0.87
27 0.37 0.31 0.46 0.32 0.98 0.84 1.16 1.07
28 0.39 0.32 0.47 0.27 1.02 0.87 1.18 1.22
29 0.41 0.33 0.48 0.27 1.06 0.91 1.21 1.10
30 0.42 0.35 0.50 0.31 1.09 0.95 1.23 1.02
31 0.44 0.37 0.51 0.31 1.13 1.00 1.27 1.26
32 0.46 0.39 0.53 0.34 1.17 1.04 1.32 1.31
33 0.47 0.41 0.55 0.51 1.21 1.08 1.35 1.45
34 0.49 0.42 0.57 0.54 1.25 1.12 1.39 1.61
35 0.51 0.43 0.58 0.44 1.29 1.15 1.43 1.47
36 0.53 0.45 0.61 0.51 1.33 1.21 1.47 1.34
37 0.55 0.46 0.63 0.47 1.38 1.24 1.51 1.39
38 0.57 0.49 0.65 0.53 1.42 1.28 1.56 1.44
39 0.59 0.51 0.67 0.51 1.47 1.33 1.60 1.68
40 0.61 0.53 0.69 0.65 1.51 1.37 1.66 1.58
41 0.63 0.55 0.71 0.61 1.55 1.40 1.69 1.70
42 0.65 0.57 0.73 0.69 1.60 1.45 1.74 1.66
43 0.67 0.59 0.76 0.52 1.65 1.50 1.79 1.68
44 0.69 0.60 0.78 0.73 1.69 1.54 1.85 1.87
45 0.71 0.62 0.80 0.85 1.74 1.60 1.89 1.89
46 0.73 0.65 0.83 0.76 1.79 1.64 1.95 1.94
47 0.76 0.67 0.85 0.72 1.84 1.69 1.99 1.86
48 0.78 0.69 0.88 0.77 1.89 1.73 2.05 1.85
49 0.81 0.71 0.90 0.82 1.94 1.79 2.10 1.97
50 0.83 0.74 0.93 0.81 1.99 1.85 2.15 2.12
51 0.85 0.76 0.94 0.87 2.04 1.90 2.19 2.09
52 0.88 0.80 0.97 0.93 2.10 1.95 2.25 2.20
53 0.90 0.81 1.00 0.96 2.14 2.00 2.31 2.29
54 0.93 0.83 1.03 0.97 2.20 2.04 2.36 2.41
55 0.95 0.86 1.05 1.02 2.26 2.11 2.41 2.50
56 0.98 0.89 1.08 1.06 2.31 2.14 2.47 2.66
57 1.01 0.91 1.11 1.09 2.37 2.19 2.54 2.56
58 1.04 0.93 1.15 1.03 2.41 2.23 2.60 2.66
59 1.06 0.96 1.18 1.12 2.47 2.28 2.68 2.71
60 1.09 0.98 1.21 1.10 2.53 2.32 2.75 2.67
61 1.11 0.99 1.25 1.02 2.58 2.33 2.85 2.62
62 1.14 1.02 1.29 1.13 2.64 2.39 2.92 2.77
63 1.17 1.02 1.34 1.00 2.69 2.41 3.02 2.58
64 1.20 1.04 1.40 0.92 2.76 2.44 3.12 2.43
65 1.22 1.05 1.44 1.00 2.81 2.45 3.21 2.09
  Panel E: 0430 - Symptomatic HIV
18 0.58 0.40 0.81 0.40 0.22 0.14 0.32 0.61
19 0.66 0.47 0.88 0.73 0.25 0.17 0.35 0.22
20 0.73 0.54 0.95 0.72 0.28 0.19 0.38 0.25
21 0.80 0.62 1.02 0.73 0.31 0.22 0.42 0.28
22 0.88 0.69 1.09 0.82 0.35 0.26 0.45 0.36
23 0.95 0.76 1.16 0.92 0.38 0.28 0.48 0.45
24 1.03 0.84 1.24 0.90 0.41 0.32 0.52 0.35
25 1.10 0.93 1.30 1.09 0.45 0.36 0.54 0.38
26 1.18 1.00 1.37 1.33 0.48 0.39 0.57 0.43
27 1.24 1.07 1.42 1.44 0.51 0.43 0.61 0.40
28 1.31 1.15 1.49 1.27 0.54 0.46 0.63 0.52
29 1.37 1.21 1.55 1.14 0.57 0.48 0.66 0.66
30 1.43 1.26 1.59 1.53 0.59 0.51 0.69 0.57
31 1.48 1.32 1.64 1.42 0.62 0.53 0.71 0.66
32 1.51 1.36 1.66 1.39 0.64 0.54 0.73 0.70
33 1.55 1.38 1.71 1.28 0.65 0.57 0.75 0.84
34 1.58 1.41 1.73 1.25 0.66 0.57 0.76 0.65
35 1.59 1.42 1.75 1.26 0.67 0.58 0.77 0.58
36 1.60 1.43 1.75 1.64 0.67 0.58 0.77 0.55
37 1.60 1.43 1.76 1.30 0.67 0.58 0.77 0.72
38 1.59 1.42 1.75 1.71 0.67 0.58 0.77 0.66
39 1.57 1.40 1.72 1.86 0.66 0.57 0.75 0.77
40 1.54 1.38 1.69 1.71 0.65 0.56 0.74 0.69
41 1.51 1.35 1.65 1.62 0.63 0.55 0.72 0.50
42 1.46 1.32 1.60 1.69 0.61 0.53 0.70 0.61
43 1.41 1.27 1.54 1.68 0.59 0.50 0.67 0.50
44 1.35 1.22 1.49 1.70 0.56 0.48 0.64 0.44
45 1.30 1.17 1.42 1.64 0.53 0.46 0.60 0.48
46 1.22 1.12 1.34 1.46 0.50 0.43 0.58 0.49
47 1.15 1.05 1.27 1.36 0.47 0.40 0.54 0.37
48 1.08 0.98 1.18 1.39 0.43 0.37 0.50 0.38
49 1.00 0.92 1.10 1.01 0.40 0.35 0.46 0.34
50 0.93 0.84 1.02 1.01 0.36 0.31 0.42 0.32
51 0.85 0.77 0.93 0.94 0.33 0.28 0.38 0.33
52 0.77 0.70 0.86 0.74 0.30 0.25 0.35 0.27
53 0.70 0.63 0.79 0.74 0.27 0.22 0.32 0.23
54 0.63 0.55 0.71 0.76 0.24 0.20 0.28 0.19
55 0.56 0.49 0.65 0.56 0.21 0.17 0.25 0.17
56 0.49 0.43 0.58 0.55 0.18 0.14 0.22 0.18
57 0.43 0.37 0.52 0.43 0.15 0.12 0.20 0.13
58 0.37 0.31 0.46 0.42 0.13 0.10 0.17 0.11
59 0.32 0.26 0.41 0.43 0.11 0.08 0.15 0.11
60 0.27 0.22 0.35 0.26 0.09 0.07 0.13 0.10
61 0.23 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.07
62 0.19 0.14 0.27 0.17 0.06 0.04 0.10 0.06
63 0.16 0.12 0.23 0.20 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.04
64 0.13 0.09 0.20 0.23 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.05
65 0.11 0.07 0.17 0.11 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.02
SOURCE: Author's calculations using DRF 100% extract (for descriptive statistics) and MVP estimation model fitted to a DRF 10% random sample (for probability estimates).
NOTES: The upper and lower bounds are the 95th percentile and 5th percentile values, respectively, of the posterior predictive distribution.
Data are for applicants who cleared step 1 of the disability determination process.
Table equivalent for Chart 4. Concurrent-claim applicants as a percentage of initial disability-benefit claimants, by age, 2009
Age Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed
18 72.27 71.22 73.27 63.99
19 72.81 71.84 73.74 75.06
20 73.26 72.36 74.14 77.77
21 73.67 72.88 74.44 77.65
22 73.99 73.27 74.73 75.35
23 74.23 73.54 74.90 74.36
24 74.41 73.77 75.05 74.39
25 74.50 73.93 75.12 74.05
26 74.55 74.05 75.09 75.80
27 74.53 74.01 75.03 76.50
28 74.42 73.93 74.92 76.25
29 74.25 73.78 74.73 75.17
30 74.01 73.57 74.46 74.62
31 73.71 73.27 74.12 74.66
32 73.33 72.92 73.74 72.86
33 72.87 72.45 73.27 71.40
34 72.33 71.90 72.75 70.23
35 71.71 71.29 72.12 68.91
36 71.03 70.62 71.41 67.99
37 70.26 69.83 70.65 67.23
38 69.40 68.98 69.81 66.41
39 68.45 68.01 68.87 64.63
40 67.40 66.97 67.86 64.40
41 66.27 65.82 66.70 63.90
42 65.06 64.60 65.48 63.37
43 63.74 63.27 64.16 61.99
44 62.31 61.87 62.71 60.99
45 60.78 60.36 61.21 60.45
46 59.18 58.73 59.58 59.48
47 57.45 57.01 57.86 58.41
48 55.62 55.21 56.08 56.86
49 53.71 53.29 54.14 55.29
50 51.72 51.31 52.12 53.92
51 49.62 49.20 50.03 52.02
52 47.44 47.01 47.84 49.58
53 45.16 44.72 45.58 48.03
54 42.81 42.41 43.25 45.44
55 40.43 40.01 40.81 42.28
56 38.00 37.57 38.43 39.96
57 35.52 35.08 35.95 37.47
58 33.04 32.62 33.47 35.43
59 30.55 30.08 31.01 33.39
60 28.07 27.57 28.56 30.54
61 25.63 25.11 26.14 27.28
62 23.24 22.73 23.73 18.88
63 20.90 20.38 21.45 13.35
64 18.65 18.11 19.19 13.16
65 16.54 15.97 17.03 8.49
SOURCE: Author's calculations using DRF 100% extract (for descriptive statistics) and MVP estimation model fitted to a DRF 10% random sample (for probability estimates).
NOTES: The upper and lower bounds are the 95th percentile and 5th percentile values, respectively, of the posterior predictive distribution.
Data are for applicants who cleared step 1 of the disability determination process.
Table equivalent for Chart 5. Estimated incidence probabilities of selected diagnoses for initial DI-only and concurrent-claim applicants, by age, 2009
Age Concurrent-claim DI-only
Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed
  Panel A: 1740 - Breast cancer (malignant)
18 0.03 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.16 0.00
19 0.04 0.01 0.10 0.07 0.08 0.02 0.18 0.00
20 0.05 0.01 0.12 0.00 0.10 0.03 0.22 0.06
21 0.06 0.02 0.13 0.03 0.12 0.04 0.25 0.00
22 0.07 0.03 0.15 0.04 0.14 0.06 0.29 0.03
23 0.09 0.04 0.17 0.05 0.17 0.07 0.33 0.07
24 0.11 0.05 0.20 0.10 0.20 0.09 0.37 0.02
25 0.13 0.06 0.22 0.05 0.24 0.12 0.41 0.08
26 0.16 0.08 0.25 0.09 0.28 0.16 0.46 0.15
27 0.18 0.10 0.28 0.14 0.33 0.19 0.50 0.31
28 0.21 0.13 0.32 0.14 0.38 0.24 0.57 0.26
29 0.25 0.16 0.35 0.24 0.44 0.29 0.62 0.52
30 0.28 0.19 0.39 0.25 0.50 0.34 0.70 0.47
31 0.33 0.22 0.43 0.35 0.57 0.41 0.75 0.54
32 0.36 0.27 0.47 0.38 0.64 0.48 0.83 0.77
33 0.41 0.31 0.52 0.42 0.72 0.54 0.90 0.72
34 0.46 0.36 0.57 0.40 0.79 0.62 0.98 0.97
35 0.51 0.41 0.62 0.46 0.87 0.71 1.07 1.06
36 0.57 0.46 0.67 0.62 0.96 0.80 1.14 1.18
37 0.62 0.52 0.73 0.53 1.04 0.89 1.22 1.49
38 0.68 0.58 0.78 0.62 1.13 0.97 1.31 1.27
39 0.73 0.63 0.84 0.68 1.21 1.05 1.40 1.41
40 0.78 0.68 0.90 0.79 1.30 1.13 1.49 1.56
41 0.84 0.73 0.96 0.76 1.38 1.22 1.59 1.63
42 0.90 0.78 1.01 0.84 1.47 1.29 1.65 1.81
43 0.95 0.84 1.07 0.88 1.55 1.37 1.74 1.64
44 1.00 0.88 1.13 0.93 1.62 1.43 1.82 1.85
45 1.05 0.92 1.19 0.99 1.69 1.51 1.90 1.98
46 1.09 0.96 1.23 1.08 1.77 1.56 1.97 1.84
47 1.13 1.00 1.28 1.10 1.82 1.62 2.03 2.04
48 1.16 1.03 1.31 1.12 1.87 1.67 2.07 1.99
49 1.19 1.06 1.34 1.03 1.91 1.72 2.13 1.89
50 1.22 1.09 1.38 1.10 1.95 1.76 2.15 2.00
51 1.23 1.10 1.38 1.06 1.97 1.81 2.17 1.80
52 1.25 1.12 1.40 1.11 1.99 1.83 2.19 1.80
53 1.25 1.13 1.40 1.11 2.00 1.85 2.19 1.88
54 1.26 1.12 1.39 1.10 2.01 1.86 2.18 1.89
55 1.25 1.10 1.38 1.14 2.00 1.85 2.17 1.87
56 1.24 1.09 1.38 1.17 1.99 1.84 2.16 1.67
57 1.22 1.07 1.35 1.19 1.97 1.81 2.14 1.82
58 1.19 1.04 1.34 1.11 1.94 1.77 2.12 1.80
59 1.15 0.99 1.32 1.31 1.90 1.71 2.11 1.72
60 1.12 0.94 1.31 1.40 1.86 1.63 2.09 1.87
61 1.08 0.89 1.28 1.31 1.80 1.57 2.07 1.76
62 1.03 0.83 1.28 1.46 1.74 1.48 2.06 1.83
63 0.97 0.77 1.23 1.69 1.67 1.39 2.04 1.90
64 0.93 0.72 1.20 1.75 1.61 1.29 2.01 1.87
65 0.88 0.64 1.18 1.83 1.54 1.19 1.99 2.28
  Panel B: 3040 - Substance addiction (drugs)
18 3.24 2.67 3.85 1.33 1.19 0.94 1.51 1.38
19 3.25 2.74 3.80 2.54 1.19 0.95 1.49 1.24
20 3.25 2.78 3.77 2.58 1.20 0.97 1.48 1.19
21 3.24 2.81 3.71 3.23 1.19 0.97 1.46 0.89
22 3.23 2.83 3.64 3.09 1.19 0.99 1.42 0.94
23 3.20 2.85 3.57 3.08 1.17 0.98 1.41 0.98
24 3.17 2.85 3.50 3.17 1.15 0.97 1.37 0.83
25 3.14 2.86 3.42 3.18 1.13 0.98 1.34 1.19
26 3.09 2.84 3.35 3.13 1.11 0.97 1.30 1.10
27 3.04 2.81 3.28 2.89 1.09 0.95 1.28 1.24
28 2.97 2.76 3.19 3.24 1.07 0.93 1.25 1.16
29 2.91 2.70 3.12 3.00 1.04 0.90 1.20 1.34
30 2.84 2.63 3.04 2.75 1.01 0.88 1.17 1.01
31 2.76 2.56 2.95 2.69 0.98 0.86 1.13 1.16
32 2.68 2.48 2.85 2.80 0.95 0.82 1.09 1.19
33 2.59 2.39 2.75 2.31 0.92 0.79 1.04 0.91
34 2.49 2.30 2.67 2.34 0.88 0.77 1.02 0.91
35 2.39 2.21 2.56 2.38 0.85 0.73 0.98 0.99
36 2.30 2.11 2.47 2.07 0.81 0.69 0.93 0.66
37 2.19 2.02 2.36 1.86 0.77 0.65 0.89 0.64
38 2.09 1.90 2.25 1.75 0.73 0.62 0.83 0.60
39 1.98 1.81 2.14 1.93 0.69 0.60 0.80 0.56
40 1.87 1.71 2.02 1.80 0.65 0.56 0.75 0.68
41 1.76 1.62 1.91 1.70 0.62 0.53 0.71 0.55
42 1.66 1.53 1.80 1.52 0.57 0.49 0.67 0.40
43 1.55 1.42 1.69 1.60 0.54 0.46 0.62 0.48
44 1.45 1.33 1.58 1.47 0.50 0.43 0.58 0.49
45 1.35 1.24 1.47 1.08 0.46 0.40 0.54 0.39
46 1.25 1.15 1.36 1.39 0.43 0.37 0.50 0.41
47 1.16 1.06 1.26 1.24 0.40 0.34 0.46 0.41
48 1.07 0.97 1.17 1.15 0.36 0.31 0.41 0.41
49 0.98 0.89 1.07 0.96 0.33 0.28 0.38 0.31
50 0.89 0.81 0.98 1.04 0.30 0.25 0.35 0.27
51 0.82 0.73 0.90 0.95 0.27 0.23 0.32 0.27
52 0.75 0.66 0.83 0.79 0.24 0.21 0.29 0.26
53 0.67 0.59 0.76 0.72 0.22 0.19 0.26 0.23
54 0.61 0.52 0.69 0.68 0.19 0.16 0.23 0.21
55 0.54 0.46 0.63 0.58 0.17 0.14 0.21 0.14
56 0.49 0.41 0.58 0.55 0.15 0.12 0.19 0.12
57 0.43 0.36 0.52 0.41 0.13 0.11 0.17 0.11
58 0.39 0.32 0.47 0.27 0.12 0.09 0.15 0.11
59 0.34 0.27 0.43 0.36 0.10 0.08 0.13 0.09
60 0.30 0.23 0.39 0.28 0.09 0.07 0.12 0.09
61 0.26 0.19 0.35 0.30 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.05
62 0.23 0.16 0.32 0.17 0.06 0.04 0.09 0.05
63 0.20 0.14 0.28 0.10 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.05
64 0.17 0.11 0.26 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.07 0.02
65 0.15 0.09 0.23 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.03
  Panel C: 2950 - Schizophrenic and other pychotic disorders
18 7.54 6.68 8.63 3.34 4.62 3.99 5.40 2.77
19 7.36 6.55 8.31 5.41 4.47 3.92 5.16 4.12
20 7.15 6.45 7.99 6.64 4.33 3.80 4.95 3.98
21 6.95 6.32 7.67 6.84 4.18 3.72 4.74 4.14
22 6.73 6.17 7.35 6.80 4.04 3.61 4.53 4.58
23 6.53 6.00 7.12 6.95 3.88 3.50 4.35 4.99
24 6.31 5.86 6.83 6.77 3.75 3.40 4.18 4.46
25 6.11 5.69 6.54 6.31 3.62 3.28 3.99 4.89
26 5.90 5.53 6.29 6.07 3.47 3.17 3.84 4.33
27 5.69 5.36 6.06 6.03 3.34 3.04 3.68 4.15
28 5.48 5.19 5.81 6.06 3.21 2.92 3.54 3.79
29 5.29 4.99 5.62 5.52 3.08 2.81 3.40 3.31
30 5.08 4.79 5.39 5.08 2.95 2.68 3.25 3.02
31 4.89 4.61 5.19 4.83 2.84 2.57 3.14 3.18
32 4.69 4.42 5.00 4.62 2.71 2.44 2.99 3.00
33 4.49 4.21 4.78 4.58 2.60 2.33 2.87 2.84
34 4.30 4.02 4.58 3.99 2.46 2.23 2.74 2.75
35 4.11 3.84 4.40 3.82 2.35 2.13 2.59 2.89
36 3.92 3.66 4.19 3.68 2.23 2.01 2.48 2.12
37 3.74 3.51 4.01 3.59 2.13 1.92 2.36 2.29
38 3.57 3.32 3.82 3.48 2.04 1.81 2.26 1.91
39 3.40 3.17 3.63 3.17 1.93 1.72 2.13 1.72
40 3.22 2.99 3.48 3.08 1.83 1.62 2.03 1.96
41 3.07 2.86 3.29 2.85 1.73 1.55 1.92 1.70
42 2.91 2.71 3.11 2.79 1.64 1.48 1.82 1.74
43 2.75 2.56 2.96 2.81 1.54 1.39 1.72 1.47
44 2.60 2.43 2.78 2.53 1.45 1.31 1.62 1.30
45 2.46 2.29 2.63 2.30 1.37 1.22 1.51 1.32
46 2.31 2.16 2.48 2.38 1.29 1.16 1.42 1.27
47 2.18 2.03 2.34 2.04 1.21 1.09 1.34 1.24
48 2.05 1.90 2.20 1.91 1.14 1.02 1.26 1.17
49 1.93 1.80 2.07 1.92 1.07 0.96 1.17 1.12
50 1.81 1.67 1.94 1.75 0.99 0.90 1.10 1.05
51 1.69 1.56 1.84 1.64 0.93 0.83 1.02 1.09
52 1.59 1.45 1.73 1.54 0.87 0.77 0.96 0.90
53 1.48 1.35 1.63 1.58 0.81 0.72 0.89 0.88
54 1.39 1.24 1.54 1.42 0.75 0.66 0.83 0.81
55 1.30 1.14 1.44 1.38 0.69 0.61 0.78 0.67
56 1.20 1.05 1.37 1.22 0.64 0.56 0.73 0.66
57 1.12 0.97 1.29 1.16 0.59 0.51 0.68 0.52
58 1.04 0.87 1.21 1.01 0.54 0.46 0.64 0.51
59 0.96 0.81 1.15 0.80 0.50 0.41 0.60 0.44
60 0.90 0.73 1.08 0.85 0.46 0.37 0.56 0.39
61 0.83 0.65 1.03 0.75 0.42 0.33 0.53 0.35
62 0.76 0.58 0.96 0.67 0.38 0.30 0.49 0.28
63 0.71 0.52 0.91 0.61 0.35 0.26 0.46 0.25
64 0.65 0.47 0.88 0.50 0.31 0.23 0.43 0.29
65 0.60 0.41 0.83 0.51 0.29 0.20 0.39 0.25
  Panel D: 4010 - Essential hypertension
18 0.89 0.61 1.22 0.89 0.44 0.28 0.63 0.99
19 1.00 0.71 1.34 1.16 0.50 0.33 0.71 1.13
20 1.13 0.81 1.46 0.95 0.57 0.39 0.79 0.65
21 1.27 0.93 1.61 1.17 0.64 0.45 0.85 0.45
22 1.41 1.07 1.75 1.25 0.72 0.52 0.94 0.47
23 1.57 1.22 1.92 1.46 0.81 0.60 1.03 0.44
24 1.72 1.39 2.10 1.56 0.90 0.69 1.14 0.75
25 1.92 1.56 2.27 1.68 1.01 0.79 1.25 1.09
26 2.10 1.76 2.47 1.80 1.11 0.90 1.35 1.04
27 2.30 1.97 2.66 2.26 1.23 1.03 1.47 1.15
28 2.53 2.19 2.86 2.25 1.36 1.12 1.59 1.70
29 2.74 2.41 3.09 2.58 1.49 1.26 1.74 1.99
30 2.98 2.65 3.32 3.18 1.64 1.40 1.88 2.12
31 3.22 2.93 3.56 3.11 1.78 1.56 2.02 2.11
32 3.49 3.18 3.77 3.38 1.96 1.71 2.19 2.15
33 3.75 3.46 4.06 3.83 2.12 1.88 2.36 2.89
34 4.03 3.76 4.31 4.01 2.29 2.06 2.56 2.97
35 4.32 4.04 4.60 4.29 2.48 2.25 2.74 3.29
36 4.61 4.35 4.88 4.77 2.68 2.44 2.93 3.00
37 4.91 4.63 5.18 5.32 2.89 2.63 3.13 3.28
38 5.22 4.95 5.49 5.05 3.08 2.84 3.34 3.83
39 5.53 5.25 5.82 5.63 3.31 3.06 3.57 3.72
40 5.85 5.56 6.14 6.10 3.53 3.27 3.80 3.85
41 6.18 5.92 6.49 6.33 3.75 3.50 4.02 4.03
42 6.51 6.22 6.84 6.52 4.00 3.72 4.26 4.51
43 6.85 6.56 7.19 6.95 4.23 3.95 4.52 4.69
44 7.18 6.87 7.55 7.31 4.48 4.19 4.76 4.90
45 7.53 7.20 7.90 7.30 4.71 4.42 5.00 5.12
46 7.87 7.54 8.23 7.90 4.95 4.67 5.26 5.01
47 8.21 7.88 8.59 8.30 5.21 4.93 5.49 5.49
48 8.56 8.22 8.93 8.38 5.47 5.17 5.76 5.86
49 8.90 8.57 9.28 8.75 5.72 5.42 6.01 5.76
50 9.25 8.90 9.62 9.24 5.97 5.68 6.28 6.07
51 9.58 9.23 9.99 9.88 6.23 5.92 6.53 6.49
52 9.93 9.55 10.32 10.09 6.47 6.17 6.75 6.80
53 10.27 9.92 10.65 10.70 6.71 6.44 7.00 6.76
54 10.61 10.22 11.01 10.71 6.95 6.68 7.23 7.03
55 10.93 10.53 11.36 11.22 7.19 6.91 7.47 6.96
56 11.25 10.83 11.68 11.49 7.41 7.15 7.71 7.19
57 11.56 11.12 12.03 12.33 7.63 7.35 7.92 7.65
58 11.88 11.40 12.37 12.64 7.84 7.56 8.14 7.71
59 12.17 11.65 12.76 12.54 8.04 7.73 8.36 8.15
60 12.48 11.90 13.11 12.86 8.24 7.87 8.60 7.88
61 12.79 12.12 13.47 13.42 8.41 8.02 8.81 8.55
62 13.07 12.31 13.83 14.82 8.58 8.11 9.06 8.99
63 13.33 12.46 14.26 15.59 8.73 8.19 9.24 8.90
64 13.60 12.64 14.63 15.89 8.85 8.23 9.50 8.90
65 13.85 12.78 15.00 14.94 8.97 8.32 9.70 8.89
  Panel E: 0440 - Asymptomatic HIV
18 0.54 0.36 0.79 0.44 0.20 0.12 0.33 0.79
19 0.58 0.40 0.81 0.45 0.22 0.14 0.34 0.21
20 0.62 0.45 0.84 0.56 0.24 0.16 0.35 0.24
21 0.66 0.49 0.87 0.73 0.25 0.17 0.37 0.26
22 0.69 0.53 0.89 0.63 0.27 0.19 0.38 0.22
23 0.73 0.58 0.92 0.84 0.28 0.21 0.38 0.19
24 0.76 0.63 0.94 0.84 0.30 0.22 0.40 0.21
25 0.80 0.67 0.97 0.81 0.31 0.24 0.41 0.32
26 0.83 0.71 0.99 0.87 0.32 0.25 0.42 0.19
27 0.86 0.74 1.01 0.77 0.34 0.26 0.44 0.52
28 0.88 0.78 1.03 0.71 0.35 0.27 0.44 0.46
29 0.90 0.80 1.04 0.86 0.36 0.29 0.45 0.37
30 0.92 0.82 1.05 0.88 0.37 0.30 0.46 0.45
31 0.94 0.84 1.06 0.90 0.38 0.30 0.46 0.38
32 0.95 0.86 1.08 0.86 0.38 0.31 0.46 0.44
33 0.96 0.87 1.07 0.91 0.39 0.31 0.47 0.34
34 0.96 0.86 1.08 0.79 0.39 0.32 0.48 0.23
35 0.96 0.87 1.08 0.90 0.39 0.32 0.47 0.32
36 0.96 0.86 1.08 0.93 0.39 0.32 0.48 0.41
37 0.95 0.85 1.07 0.73 0.39 0.32 0.47 0.37
38 0.94 0.84 1.05 0.85 0.39 0.32 0.47 0.26
39 0.92 0.82 1.04 0.90 0.38 0.31 0.46 0.30
40 0.91 0.81 1.01 0.92 0.37 0.31 0.45 0.35
41 0.88 0.78 0.99 0.90 0.37 0.30 0.44 0.37
42 0.86 0.76 0.96 0.94 0.35 0.29 0.43 0.31
43 0.83 0.73 0.93 0.91 0.34 0.28 0.41 0.45
44 0.80 0.71 0.89 0.90 0.33 0.28 0.40 0.39
45 0.77 0.68 0.86 1.02 0.32 0.26 0.38 0.42
46 0.73 0.65 0.82 0.88 0.30 0.25 0.36 0.34
47 0.70 0.62 0.78 0.89 0.29 0.24 0.35 0.26
48 0.66 0.59 0.74 0.69 0.27 0.23 0.32 0.27
49 0.62 0.55 0.70 0.67 0.26 0.22 0.31 0.21
50 0.58 0.52 0.66 0.62 0.24 0.20 0.28 0.26
51 0.55 0.48 0.62 0.55 0.22 0.19 0.27 0.21
52 0.51 0.44 0.58 0.49 0.21 0.17 0.25 0.17
53 0.47 0.40 0.54 0.55 0.19 0.16 0.23 0.21
54 0.43 0.37 0.50 0.44 0.18 0.14 0.21 0.13
55 0.40 0.33 0.47 0.30 0.16 0.13 0.20 0.09
56 0.36 0.30 0.44 0.32 0.15 0.12 0.18 0.12
57 0.33 0.26 0.41 0.36 0.13 0.10 0.17 0.13
58 0.30 0.23 0.38 0.24 0.12 0.09 0.15 0.10
59 0.27 0.20 0.35 0.26 0.10 0.07 0.14 0.08
60 0.24 0.17 0.32 0.16 0.09 0.07 0.13 0.04
61 0.21 0.15 0.30 0.19 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.06
62 0.19 0.12 0.27 0.08 0.07 0.04 0.10 0.05
63 0.17 0.10 0.25 0.13 0.06 0.04 0.09 0.06
64 0.15 0.09 0.23 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.06
65 0.13 0.07 0.21 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.05
SOURCE: Author's calculations using DRF 100% extract (for descriptive statistics) and MVP estimation model fitted to a DRF 10% random sample (for probability estimates).
NOTES: The upper and lower bounds are the 95th percentile and 5th percentile values, respectively, of the posterior predictive distribution.
Data are for applicants who cleared step 1 of the disability determination process.
Table equivalent for Chart 6. Reapplicants as a percentage of all applicants filing initial claims for disability benefits, by age, 2009
Age Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed
18 15.40 14.69 16.15 4.84
19 16.81 16.14 17.55 10.77
20 18.24 17.57 18.95 16.59
21 19.68 18.99 20.34 20.07
22 21.08 20.43 21.73 24.01
23 22.48 21.82 23.08 25.31
24 23.84 23.23 24.42 26.30
25 25.17 24.59 25.73 26.45
26 26.45 25.92 27.00 26.82
27 27.68 27.14 28.20 27.98
28 28.86 28.37 29.35 28.58
29 29.96 29.48 30.42 29.68
30 30.98 30.53 31.45 30.54
31 31.96 31.49 32.38 31.21
32 32.81 32.36 33.27 31.45
33 33.61 33.17 34.07 32.11
34 34.31 33.84 34.72 33.13
35 34.92 34.48 35.37 33.00
36 35.45 34.98 35.90 33.71
37 35.86 35.43 36.30 34.86
38 36.19 35.80 36.64 34.85
39 36.45 36.02 36.87 34.60
40 36.57 36.15 37.04 35.20
41 36.64 36.18 37.10 34.83
42 36.59 36.17 37.05 35.82
43 36.44 36.00 36.91 35.68
44 36.20 35.79 36.62 36.27
45 35.88 35.45 36.30 36.20
46 35.44 35.04 35.85 36.07
47 34.90 34.49 35.33 36.41
48 34.30 33.92 34.70 35.68
49 33.59 33.20 33.99 36.06
50 32.80 32.43 33.16 34.90
51 31.93 31.55 32.29 33.24
52 31.00 30.62 31.32 31.80
53 29.94 29.61 30.32 31.09
54 28.84 28.48 29.17 30.14
55 27.67 27.33 28.02 28.19
56 26.45 26.07 26.80 26.23
57 25.16 24.81 25.54 24.25
58 23.83 23.46 24.21 22.77
59 22.47 22.07 22.84 22.07
60 21.08 20.68 21.48 20.36
61 19.66 19.23 20.07 19.29
62 18.25 17.81 18.68 18.35
63 16.82 16.38 17.25 17.30
64 15.41 14.95 15.87 17.51
65 14.04 13.53 14.49 16.59
SOURCE: Author's calculations using DRF 100% extract (for descriptive statistics) and MVP estimation model fitted to a DRF 10% random sample (for probability estimates).
NOTES: The upper and lower bounds are the 95th percentile and 5th percentile values, respectively, of the posterior predictive distribution.
Data are for applicants who cleared step 1 of the disability determination process.
Table equivalent for Chart 7. Estimated incidence probabilities of selected diagnoses for new and reapplying initial disability benefit claimants, by age, 2009
Age Reapplicant New Applicant
Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed
  Panel A: 1620 - Lung cancer (malignant)
18 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00
19 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.03
20 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.05
21 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.03
22 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.03
23 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.06
24 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.07 0.03
25 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.08 0.04
26 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.10 0.04
27 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.11 0.05
28 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.12 0.05
29 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.14 0.05
30 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.10 0.05 0.16 0.05
31 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.11 0.07 0.18 0.07
32 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.14 0.09 0.20 0.10
33 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.03 0.16 0.11 0.23 0.13
34 0.06 0.04 0.09 0.01 0.19 0.13 0.26 0.11
35 0.07 0.05 0.11 0.04 0.22 0.16 0.29 0.15
36 0.09 0.06 0.12 0.02 0.25 0.19 0.33 0.21
37 0.10 0.07 0.14 0.10 0.30 0.23 0.37 0.21
38 0.12 0.09 0.16 0.05 0.34 0.27 0.42 0.27
39 0.14 0.10 0.18 0.09 0.39 0.32 0.47 0.28
40 0.16 0.12 0.20 0.06 0.45 0.37 0.53 0.44
41 0.19 0.14 0.23 0.11 0.51 0.43 0.59 0.46
42 0.21 0.17 0.26 0.07 0.58 0.50 0.66 0.53
43 0.24 0.20 0.29 0.18 0.65 0.57 0.74 0.63
44 0.28 0.23 0.33 0.22 0.73 0.64 0.82 0.76
45 0.32 0.26 0.37 0.27 0.82 0.72 0.92 0.93
46 0.36 0.30 0.42 0.32 0.91 0.82 1.02 1.04
47 0.40 0.33 0.47 0.39 1.01 0.92 1.13 1.32
48 0.45 0.38 0.53 0.38 1.13 1.02 1.25 1.42
49 0.50 0.43 0.58 0.44 1.25 1.13 1.37 1.70
50 0.56 0.47 0.65 0.47 1.38 1.25 1.51 1.66
51 0.62 0.53 0.72 0.52 1.51 1.39 1.64 2.00
52 0.68 0.58 0.78 0.62 1.66 1.52 1.79 2.01
53 0.75 0.64 0.86 0.65 1.81 1.67 1.95 2.18
54 0.82 0.71 0.94 0.79 1.97 1.83 2.11 2.36
55 0.90 0.78 1.02 0.78 2.14 2.00 2.28 2.33
56 0.98 0.85 1.11 1.05 2.32 2.17 2.46 2.45
57 1.06 0.92 1.20 1.07 2.50 2.36 2.65 2.43
58 1.14 1.00 1.29 1.10 2.70 2.54 2.85 2.66
59 1.23 1.07 1.39 0.95 2.90 2.72 3.08 2.67
60 1.32 1.15 1.50 1.03 3.11 2.90 3.32 2.86
61 1.41 1.22 1.62 1.38 3.34 3.09 3.58 2.97
62 1.51 1.29 1.73 1.23 3.57 3.26 3.86 3.00
63 1.61 1.36 1.88 1.78 3.80 3.44 4.17 4.04
64 1.71 1.42 2.01 2.46 4.04 3.60 4.50 4.89
65 1.81 1.47 2.12 2.70 4.31 3.76 4.86 4.85
  Panel B: 2960 - Affective and mood disorders
18 43.42 41.00 45.91 39.71 36.14 34.01 38.40 33.36
19 44.15 41.83 46.55 33.89 36.99 35.03 39.09 35.65
20 44.86 42.85 46.94 36.70 37.78 35.95 39.62 37.29
21 45.56 43.64 47.49 38.34 38.45 36.83 40.26 39.03
22 46.08 44.43 47.90 38.38 39.08 37.62 40.65 38.65
23 46.62 45.08 48.25 40.55 39.61 38.25 41.13 39.01
24 47.08 45.62 48.56 41.46 40.10 38.85 41.51 40.31
25 47.45 46.10 48.75 42.65 40.54 39.32 41.80 41.50
26 47.72 46.46 48.99 46.58 40.82 39.73 42.02 41.86
27 47.94 46.78 49.15 46.78 41.10 40.10 42.19 42.78
28 48.07 47.02 49.22 46.99 41.30 40.30 42.27 43.81
29 48.18 47.14 49.30 47.47 41.40 40.48 42.46 43.78
30 48.21 47.20 49.23 48.53 41.44 40.55 42.43 43.48
31 48.13 47.18 49.12 48.11 41.41 40.57 42.36 42.63
32 48.03 47.01 49.01 47.04 41.31 40.47 42.21 42.73
33 47.83 46.85 48.85 47.48 41.15 40.27 42.09 41.31
34 47.55 46.59 48.55 46.65 40.89 40.02 41.79 42.55
35 47.20 46.23 48.18 46.67 40.57 39.69 41.49 41.05
36 46.82 45.83 47.80 45.95 40.18 39.30 41.10 40.59
37 46.28 45.31 47.38 45.29 39.73 38.81 40.66 40.60
38 45.76 44.76 46.82 45.14 39.20 38.30 40.06 38.69
39 45.10 44.15 46.17 44.44 38.58 37.65 39.47 38.35
40 44.43 43.43 45.50 42.89 37.93 36.99 38.88 37.50
41 43.66 42.68 44.72 43.10 37.16 36.28 38.08 36.90
42 42.82 41.86 43.85 43.01 36.41 35.51 37.24 36.43
43 41.94 41.06 42.93 41.19 35.53 34.66 36.36 34.55
44 40.98 40.05 41.95 40.90 34.59 33.81 35.45 33.59
45 39.94 39.05 40.89 40.12 33.64 32.83 34.41 32.88
46 38.90 37.94 39.77 39.67 32.60 31.86 33.38 31.91
47 37.70 36.84 38.57 39.36 31.50 30.77 32.24 31.33
48 36.50 35.67 37.33 38.03 30.36 29.72 31.03 30.84
49 35.20 34.47 36.03 37.05 29.17 28.59 29.80 29.10
50 33.91 33.18 34.62 34.24 27.94 27.36 28.56 27.53
51 32.54 31.85 33.33 33.56 26.68 26.13 27.33 26.13
52 31.13 30.42 31.90 33.00 25.39 24.89 25.99 25.22
53 29.73 29.03 30.43 31.45 24.08 23.56 24.65 24.09
54 28.28 27.53 28.98 29.43 22.75 22.20 23.36 22.89
55 26.77 25.97 27.51 27.89 21.40 20.83 22.02 20.85
56 25.26 24.51 26.07 26.04 20.05 19.49 20.71 19.42
57 23.77 22.90 24.69 24.76 18.71 18.05 19.39 18.42
58 22.25 21.27 23.17 23.81 17.37 16.70 18.13 17.05
59 20.71 19.82 21.71 22.43 16.04 15.33 16.83 16.08
60 19.24 18.21 20.28 20.60 14.73 13.96 15.57 15.00
61 17.76 16.62 18.85 18.23 13.48 12.63 14.31 13.58
62 16.32 15.23 17.54 15.60 12.22 11.36 13.15 11.00
63 14.93 13.71 16.15 13.06 11.06 10.14 11.99 9.49
64 13.57 12.39 14.81 11.51 9.93 9.02 10.88 8.04
65 12.26 11.00 13.51 10.65 8.85 7.90 9.82 6.97
  Panel C: 0440 - Asymptomatic HIV
18 0.80 0.53 1.17 0.00 0.38 0.25 0.57 0.60
19 0.85 0.58 1.20 0.00 0.41 0.28 0.58 0.43
20 0.89 0.64 1.22 0.80 0.44 0.31 0.60 0.43
21 0.92 0.69 1.25 0.83 0.46 0.34 0.61 0.57
22 0.96 0.74 1.26 0.57 0.48 0.36 0.63 0.52
23 1.00 0.79 1.27 0.69 0.50 0.39 0.64 0.66
24 1.03 0.83 1.29 0.73 0.53 0.42 0.65 0.66
25 1.06 0.88 1.32 1.00 0.54 0.44 0.67 0.57
26 1.09 0.92 1.33 0.92 0.56 0.47 0.67 0.63
27 1.12 0.95 1.34 0.99 0.58 0.49 0.68 0.61
28 1.14 0.97 1.34 0.95 0.59 0.51 0.69 0.53
29 1.15 1.00 1.35 1.37 0.60 0.52 0.69 0.47
30 1.16 1.01 1.35 1.20 0.61 0.53 0.70 0.58
31 1.18 1.02 1.35 1.01 0.61 0.54 0.71 0.65
32 1.18 1.03 1.38 1.01 0.61 0.54 0.70 0.62
33 1.18 1.04 1.36 1.15 0.61 0.54 0.70 0.56
34 1.17 1.03 1.35 0.96 0.61 0.54 0.69 0.45
35 1.16 1.02 1.34 1.23 0.61 0.54 0.69 0.47
36 1.15 1.02 1.31 1.25 0.60 0.53 0.68 0.51
37 1.13 1.00 1.30 0.92 0.59 0.51 0.67 0.44
38 1.11 0.97 1.26 1.03 0.58 0.51 0.66 0.44
39 1.09 0.94 1.25 1.07 0.56 0.49 0.64 0.49
40 1.05 0.92 1.20 1.05 0.54 0.48 0.62 0.53
41 1.02 0.89 1.17 1.05 0.53 0.46 0.61 0.53
42 0.98 0.85 1.14 1.16 0.51 0.44 0.58 0.46
43 0.95 0.82 1.09 1.15 0.48 0.42 0.55 0.50
44 0.91 0.79 1.04 1.06 0.46 0.40 0.53 0.49
45 0.86 0.75 1.00 1.10 0.44 0.38 0.50 0.61
46 0.82 0.71 0.94 1.01 0.41 0.36 0.48 0.46
47 0.77 0.68 0.88 1.02 0.39 0.34 0.45 0.41
48 0.72 0.64 0.83 0.82 0.36 0.32 0.42 0.34
49 0.68 0.59 0.78 0.72 0.34 0.29 0.39 0.32
50 0.63 0.56 0.72 0.70 0.31 0.27 0.36 0.32
51 0.59 0.51 0.68 0.61 0.29 0.25 0.33 0.27
52 0.54 0.46 0.63 0.53 0.26 0.23 0.31 0.24
53 0.50 0.43 0.59 0.75 0.24 0.20 0.28 0.20
54 0.46 0.39 0.54 0.56 0.22 0.18 0.26 0.14
55 0.41 0.34 0.50 0.34 0.20 0.16 0.24 0.12
56 0.37 0.30 0.46 0.36 0.18 0.14 0.22 0.14
57 0.34 0.27 0.42 0.35 0.16 0.12 0.20 0.17
58 0.30 0.23 0.38 0.31 0.14 0.11 0.18 0.10
59 0.27 0.20 0.35 0.29 0.12 0.09 0.16 0.10
60 0.24 0.17 0.32 0.22 0.11 0.08 0.14 0.04
61 0.21 0.14 0.30 0.22 0.09 0.06 0.13 0.06
62 0.18 0.12 0.26 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.12 0.04
63 0.16 0.10 0.24 0.16 0.07 0.04 0.10 0.05
64 0.14 0.08 0.21 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.09 0.07
65 0.12 0.06 0.19 0.16 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.03
SOURCE: Author's calculations using DRF 100% extract (for descriptive statistics) and MVP estimation model fitted to a DRF 10% random sample (for probability estimates).
NOTES: The upper and lower bounds are the 95th percentile and 5th percentile values, respectively, of the posterior predictive distribution.
Data are for applicants who cleared step 1 of the disability determination process.
Table equivalent for Chart 8. Estimated incidence probabilities of affective or mood disorders, disorders of the back, or both, by age: 2009 initial claims
Age Median Lower bound Upper bound Observed
  Affective or mood disorders
18 37.40 35.28 39.47 33.67
19 38.31 36.31 40.31 35.46
20 39.18 37.32 40.98 37.19
21 39.94 38.25 41.57 38.89
22 40.65 39.13 42.16 38.58
23 41.27 39.89 42.67 39.40
24 41.81 40.64 43.08 40.61
25 42.30 41.17 43.48 41.81
26 42.70 41.64 43.84 43.12
27 43.04 42.06 44.02 43.90
28 43.29 42.37 44.26 44.72
29 43.46 42.61 44.37 44.87
30 43.56 42.73 44.44 45.02
31 43.58 42.80 44.44 44.34
32 43.52 42.68 44.32 44.08
33 43.39 42.57 44.21 43.29
34 43.17 42.33 43.99 43.91
35 42.88 42.01 43.74 42.91
36 42.51 41.62 43.37 42.40
37 42.07 41.17 42.92 42.24
38 41.55 40.66 42.40 40.94
39 40.95 40.09 41.74 40.46
40 40.29 39.42 41.11 39.40
41 39.55 38.71 40.39 39.06
42 38.72 37.92 39.52 38.79
43 37.83 37.06 38.66 36.92
44 36.89 36.12 37.69 36.24
45 35.86 35.12 36.61 35.50
46 34.77 34.06 35.48 34.71
47 33.64 33.00 34.34 34.25
48 32.43 31.82 33.08 33.41
49 31.19 30.65 31.78 31.96
50 29.87 29.36 30.46 29.87
51 28.54 28.06 29.10 28.60
52 27.17 26.69 27.69 27.69
53 25.76 25.26 26.31 26.38
54 24.35 23.84 24.88 24.86
55 22.89 22.35 23.47 22.83
56 21.42 20.87 22.08 21.15
57 19.97 19.35 20.64 19.95
58 18.54 17.84 19.27 18.59
59 17.11 16.39 17.89 17.48
60 15.71 14.88 16.51 16.14
61 14.34 13.47 15.24 14.48
62 13.02 12.12 13.93 11.84
63 11.73 10.79 12.66 10.11
64 10.51 9.57 11.45 8.64
65 9.36 8.41 10.32 7.58
  Disorders of the back
18 5.00 3.50 6.84 2.63
19 5.73 4.17 7.57 4.06
20 6.55 4.94 8.45 5.44
21 7.41 5.72 9.31 6.03
22 8.33 6.57 10.23 6.82
23 9.27 7.53 11.07 8.08
24 10.27 8.53 12.04 8.75
25 11.29 9.56 12.98 10.70
26 12.35 10.70 14.05 12.33
27 13.42 11.79 15.02 13.48
28 14.48 12.92 15.98 14.86
29 15.58 14.07 17.00 16.54
30 16.64 15.23 18.01 18.10
31 17.72 16.36 18.98 18.98
32 18.76 17.49 19.98 20.48
33 19.80 18.57 20.95 21.84
34 20.79 19.60 21.92 22.28
35 21.76 20.57 22.84 22.74
36 22.69 21.53 23.77 23.82
37 23.55 22.41 24.56 24.75
38 24.38 23.23 25.40 25.63
39 25.13 24.02 26.16 25.60
40 25.85 24.71 26.86 26.47
41 26.48 25.37 27.50 26.91
42 27.06 25.91 28.10 27.38
43 27.55 26.43 28.62 27.56
44 27.99 26.87 29.04 28.02
45 28.37 27.24 29.40 27.58
46 28.66 27.54 29.68 28.24
47 28.86 27.78 29.87 27.95
48 28.97 27.89 30.04 27.83
49 29.03 28.01 30.03 28.66
50 29.02 28.00 30.01 28.87
51 28.94 27.96 29.85 28.64
52 28.77 27.82 29.69 28.16
53 28.52 27.62 29.38 27.72
54 28.21 27.32 29.09 27.27
55 27.82 26.95 28.69 27.78
56 27.34 26.46 28.25 26.64
57 26.82 25.81 27.79 25.92
58 26.20 25.17 27.26 26.15
59 25.53 24.37 26.69 25.37
60 24.82 23.50 26.10 25.09
61 24.03 22.64 25.43 24.20
62 23.16 21.59 24.81 23.55
63 22.30 20.55 24.08 21.61
64 21.34 19.50 23.36 19.55
65 20.37 18.35 22.62 19.98
  Both diagnoses
18 1.63 1.07 2.39 0.64
19 1.92 1.33 2.71 0.77
20 2.26 1.60 3.07 1.07
21 2.63 1.93 3.45 1.44
22 3.02 2.28 3.85 1.93
23 3.42 2.68 4.28 2.29
24 3.86 3.10 4.70 2.77
25 4.32 3.54 5.15 3.25
26 4.77 4.01 5.61 3.60
27 5.25 4.49 6.07 4.37
28 5.72 4.99 6.47 4.88
29 6.19 5.45 6.92 5.37
30 6.65 5.94 7.36 6.25
31 7.08 6.40 7.77 6.16
32 7.51 6.84 8.19 6.79
33 7.91 7.26 8.58 7.08
34 8.29 7.62 8.92 7.71
35 8.62 7.95 9.24 7.64
36 8.91 8.27 9.54 8.05
37 9.16 8.50 9.77 8.59
38 9.37 8.72 9.99 8.54
39 9.53 8.87 10.15 8.56
40 9.63 8.99 10.26 8.71
41 9.69 9.06 10.33 8.91
42 9.70 9.06 10.33 8.96
43 9.64 9.02 10.27 8.51
44 9.54 8.94 10.17 9.07
45 9.38 8.78 9.99 8.59
46 9.18 8.60 9.76 8.67
47 8.93 8.38 9.50 8.23
48 8.64 8.12 9.18 8.38
49 8.30 7.82 8.82 8.34
50 7.94 7.50 8.41 7.71
51 7.53 7.12 7.98 7.40
52 7.12 6.73 7.55 7.00
53 6.67 6.29 7.06 6.56
54 6.21 5.85 6.61 6.12
55 5.75 5.38 6.12 5.61
56 5.27 4.90 5.64 4.90
57 4.80 4.43 5.18 4.43
58 4.32 3.96 4.73 4.11
59 3.87 3.50 4.27 3.70
60 3.44 3.06 3.82 3.38
61 3.01 2.65 3.43 2.82
62 2.62 2.27 3.03 2.30
63 2.26 1.91 2.67 1.88
64 1.92 1.59 2.29 1.40
65 1.62 1.29 2.00 1.23
SOURCE: Author's calculations using DRF 100% extract (for descriptive statistics) and MVP estimation model fitted to a DRF 10% random sample (for probability estimates).
NOTES: The upper and lower bounds are the 95th percentile and 5th percentile values, respectively, of the posterior predictive distribution.
Data are for applicants who cleared step 1 of the disability determination process.