Working and Claiming Behavior at Social Security's Early Eligibility Age Among Men by Lifetime Earnings Decile
by Hilary Waldron
ORES Working Paper No. 115 (released September 2020)
ORES Working Paper No. 115 (released September 2020)
Decile | Point estimate | Confidence interval | |
---|---|---|---|
Upper bound | Lower bound | ||
Panel A: Ceased work prior to claiming (not working at age 61 and not working at age 63) | |||
1 | 4.861 | 5.567 | 4.245 |
2 | 2.710 | 3.120 | 2.354 |
3 | 1.643 | 1.907 | 1.416 |
4 | 1.647 | 1.912 | 1.420 |
5 | 1.821 | 2.109 | 1.572 |
6 | 2.465 | 2.841 | 2.139 |
7 | 2.583 | 2.975 | 2.242 |
8 | 2.451 | 2.826 | 2.127 |
9 | 1.975 | 2.284 | 1.708 |
10 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Panel B: Ceased work and claimed around the same time (working at age 61 and not working at age 63) | |||
1 | 0.544 | 0.713 | 0.414 |
2 | 2.332 | 2.846 | 1.910 |
3 | 2.929 | 3.555 | 2.412 |
4 | 2.946 | 3.577 | 2.427 |
5 | 2.980 | 3.616 | 2.455 |
6 | 2.930 | 3.557 | 2.413 |
7 | 2.561 | 3.119 | 2.103 |
8 | 2.740 | 3.332 | 2.254 |
9 | 1.778 | 2.187 | 1.446 |
10 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Panel C: Worked after claiming (working at age 63) | |||
1 | 0.354 | 0.492 | 0.255 |
2 | 1.475 | 1.845 | 1.179 |
3 | 1.522 | 1.901 | 1.219 |
4 | 1.341 | 1.683 | 1.068 |
5 | 1.076 | 1.366 | 0.848 |
6 | 1.115 | 1.412 | 0.880 |
7 | 1.007 | 1.282 | 0.791 |
8 | 1.030 | 1.310 | 0.810 |
9 | 0.984 | 1.255 | 0.772 |
10 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | |||
NOTES: Sample is restricted to fully insured workers born in 1942–1944 who lived to age 64. Excludes disabled-worker beneficiaries. | |||
Odds ratios measure the predicted odds relative to decile 10 that a worker will exhibit a particular working and claiming behavior. Error bars indicate confidence intervals. |
Decile | Point estimate | Confidence interval | |
---|---|---|---|
Upper bound | Lower bound | ||
Panel A: Ceased work prior to claiming (not working at age 61 and not working at age 63) | |||
1 | 11.508 | 17.010 | 7.786 |
2 | 4.526 | 6.843 | 2.994 |
3 | 2.383 | 3.717 | 1.527 |
4 | 1.578 | 2.540 | 0.980 |
5 | 1.360 | 2.221 | 0.833 |
6 | 1.433 | 2.328 | 0.882 |
7 | 0.999 | 1.690 | 0.590 |
8 | 1.324 | 2.168 | 0.808 |
9 | 1.614 | 2.593 | 1.004 |
10 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Panel B: Ceased work and claimed around the same time (working at age 61 and not working at age 63) | |||
1 | 0.419 | 0.717 | 0.244 |
2 | 1.844 | 2.661 | 1.277 |
3 | 2.684 | 3.797 | 1.897 |
4 | 3.113 | 4.376 | 2.214 |
5 | 2.590 | 3.671 | 1.828 |
6 | 2.543 | 3.607 | 1.793 |
7 | 2.331 | 3.320 | 1.636 |
8 | 1.751 | 2.536 | 1.209 |
9 | 1.843 | 2.660 | 1.277 |
10 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Panel C: Worked after claiming (working at age 63) | |||
1 | 0.402 | 0.707 | 0.228 |
2 | 2.325 | 3.353 | 1.613 |
3 | 3.311 | 4.698 | 2.334 |
4 | 2.526 | 3.627 | 1.759 |
5 | 2.854 | 4.074 | 1.999 |
6 | 2.702 | 3.867 | 1.888 |
7 | 2.100 | 3.046 | 1.449 |
8 | 2.551 | 3.661 | 1.777 |
9 | 2.325 | 3.352 | 1.612 |
10 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | |||
NOTES: Sample is restricted to fully insured workers born in 1942–1944 who lived to age 64. Excludes disabled-worker beneficiaries. | |||
Odds ratios measure the predicted odds relative to decile 10 that a worker will exhibit a particular working and claiming behavior. Error bars indicate confidence intervals. |
Decile | Point estimate | Confidence interval | |
---|---|---|---|
Upper bound | Lower bound | ||
Panel A: Worked at age 63 | |||
1 | 0.033 | 0.039 | 0.028 |
2 | 0.191 | 0.213 | 0.172 |
3 | 0.356 | 0.395 | 0.321 |
4 | 0.428 | 0.474 | 0.386 |
5 | 0.444 | 0.492 | 0.401 |
6 | 0.391 | 0.433 | 0.352 |
7 | 0.400 | 0.443 | 0.361 |
8 | 0.416 | 0.461 | 0.375 |
9 | 0.554 | 0.615 | 0.500 |
10 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Panel B: Did not work at age 63 | |||
1 | 8.418 | 9.744 | 7.272 |
2 | 2.884 | 3.367 | 2.470 |
3 | 1.359 | 1.612 | 1.146 |
4 | 0.970 | 1.164 | 0.808 |
5 | 0.848 | 1.023 | 0.703 |
6 | 0.672 | 0.819 | 0.550 |
7 | 0.919 | 1.105 | 0.764 |
8 | 0.798 | 0.966 | 0.660 |
9 | 0.839 | 1.013 | 0.695 |
10 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | |||
NOTES: Sample is restricted to fully insured workers born in 1942–1944 who lived to age 64. Excludes disabled-worker beneficiaries. | |||
Odds ratios measure the predicted odds relative to decile 10 that a worker will exhibit a particular working and claiming behavior. Error bars indicate confidence intervals. |
Decile | 1937 | 1938 | 1939 | 1940 | 1941 | 1942 | 1943 | 1944 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: Ceased work prior to claiming (not working at age 61 and not working at age 63) | ||||||||
All | 22.453 | 22.337 | 21.750 | 21.488 | 21.765 | 20.896 | 20.833 | 19.858 |
1 | 38.072 | 35.915 | 37.661 | 39.418 | 39.016 | 35.143 | 36.910 | 35.833 |
2 | 25.958 | 27.380 | 25.731 | 26.652 | 27.462 | 23.928 | 25.162 | 22.395 |
3–5 | 17.395 | 17.260 | 16.186 | 15.913 | 17.280 | 17.212 | 16.559 | 15.552 |
6–8 | 23.280 | 24.119 | 22.543 | 23.488 | 21.400 | 22.840 | 22.109 | 22.298 |
9 | 23.115 | 21.362 | 23.041 | 19.149 | 20.897 | 18.476 | 19.796 | 17.429 |
10 | 15.347 | 14.571 | 14.871 | 11.435 | 14.223 | 11.249 | 10.453 | 9.357 |
Panel B: Ceased work and claimed around the same time (working at age 61 and not working at age 63) | ||||||||
All | 14.775 | 14.328 | 13.923 | 13.130 | 11.375 | 10.796 | 10.176 | 9.369 |
1 | 3.832 | 5.516 | 3.977 | 4.143 | 2.295 | 3.333 | 2.128 | 2.532 |
2 | 15.204 | 14.101 | 13.801 | 10.414 | 11.597 | 12.011 | 10.638 | 8.763 |
3–6, 8 | 17.384 | 16.960 | 16.472 | 16.248 | 14.461 | 13.208 | 12.710 | 12.271 |
7 | 19.778 | 16.549 | 18.267 | 16.013 | 12.459 | 11.905 | 12.766 | 9.445 |
9 | 13.968 | 13.146 | 12.398 | 12.542 | 9.409 | 9.429 | 8.048 | 7.108 |
10 | 8.045 | 9.166 | 8.431 | 6.951 | 5.689 | 5.243 | 4.625 | 4.483 |
Panel C: Worked after claiming (working at age 63) | ||||||||
All | 7.258 | 6.483 | 5.370 | 5.333 | 5.633 | 5.307 | 4.746 | 4.022 |
1 | 3.214 | 3.052 | 2.690 | 2.912 | 2.623 | 1.905 | 1.850 | a |
2–4 | 8.694 | 7.948 | 7.176 | 6.983 | 7.109 | 6.798 | 6.167 | a |
5–10 | 7.214 | 6.322 | 4.914 | 4.911 | 5.397 | 5.129 | 4.517 | 3.799 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | ||||||||
NOTE: Sample is restricted to fully insured workers who lived to age 64. Excludes disabled-worker beneficiaries. | ||||||||
a. Suppressed because of small sample size. |
Decile | 1937 | 1938 | 1939 | 1940 | 1941 | 1942 | 1943 | 1944 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: Ceased work prior to claiming (not working at age 61 and not working at age 63) | ||||||||
All | 2.090 | 2.114 | 2.293 | 2.039 | 2.297 | 2.611 | 2.202 | 2.259 |
1 | 9.394 | 10.446 | 11.228 | 6.271 | 7.104 | 9.619 | 9.898 | 8.471 |
2 | 4.326 | 3.643 | 3.509 | 2.912 | 4.267 | 3.908 | 3.515 | 4.284 |
3 | 0.989 | 1.526 | 1.754 | 1.906 | 2.516 | 2.476 | 1.943 | 1.850 |
4–9 | 0.845 | 0.861 | 0.897 | 1.438 | 1.367 | 1.493 | 0.971 | 1.217 |
10 | 1.114 | 0.353 | 1.054 | 0.673 | 0.875 | 1.144 | 0.833 | 0.682 |
Panel B: Ceased work and claimed around the same time (working at age 61 and not working at age 63) | ||||||||
All | 3.091 | 3.206 | 3.744 | 3.294 | 2.964 | 3.049 | 2.664 | 2.737 |
1 | 1.731 | 1.174 | 1.053 | 1.008 | 0.328 | 0.762 | 0.648 | 0.389 |
2–9 | 3.369 | 3.597 | 4.256 | 3.809 | 3.500 | 3.502 | 3.122 | 3.177 |
10 | 2.225 | 2.113 | 2.339 | 1.457 | 1.313 | 1.714 | 1.018 | 1.558 |
Panel C: Worked after claiming (working at age 63) | ||||||||
All | 4.142 | 3.523 | 3.498 | 3.518 | 3.194 | 2.830 | 2.951 | 2.863 |
2–9 | 4.497 | 3.817 | 3.905 | 4.019 | 3.705 | 3.311 | 3.446 | 3.348 |
1, 10 | 2.721 | 2.349 | 1.872 | 1.513 | 1.148 | 0.905 | 0.971 | 0.925 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | ||||||||
NOTE: Sample is restricted to fully insured workers who lived to age 64. Excludes disabled-worker beneficiaries. |
Decile | 1937 | 1938 | 1939 | 1940 | 1941 | 1942 | 1943 | 1944 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: Worked at age 63 | ||||||||
All | 37.438 | 39.119 | 39.628 | 40.309 | 41.562 | 43.068 | 44.459 | 45.462 |
1 | 10.136 | 11.385 | 9.591 | 9.071 | 8.306 | 8.381 | 6.475 | 5.648 |
2 | 27.194 | 25.969 | 27.719 | 27.660 | 27.133 | 29.457 | 30.157 | 29.309 |
3 | 37.824 | 39.671 | 39.883 | 42.265 | 37.527 | 43.905 | 43.848 | 44.206 |
4–5 | 40.445 | 42.161 | 44.061 | 43.473 | 46.364 | 45.879 | 50.046 | 51.096 |
6–8 | 38.978 | 40.838 | 42.005 | 40.926 | 45.097 | 46.125 | 46.438 | 48.458 |
9 | 44.623 | 46.948 | 46.784 | 49.048 | 51.094 | 52.667 | 55.689 | 56.670 |
10 | 56.807 | 60.400 | 58.197 | 65.359 | 63.567 | 66.158 | 69.010 | 71.248 |
Panel B: Did not work at age 63 | ||||||||
All | 8.754 | 8.890 | 9.793 | 10.890 | 11.211 | 11.444 | 11.970 | 13.430 |
1 | 31.768 | 30.634 | 32.865 | 36.058 | 39.563 | 40.571 | 41.351 | 45.570 |
2 | 15.822 | 15.041 | 15.556 | 18.253 | 17.287 | 18.398 | 19.056 | 23.272 |
3 | 8.405 | 9.155 | 9.708 | 9.978 | 10.175 | 9.333 | 10.546 | 12.171 |
4, 5, 7–9 | 4.303 | 5.049 | 5.289 | 6.319 | 6.299 | 6.593 | 6.938 | 7.908 |
6 | 4.326 | 3.525 | 5.497 | 5.487 | 5.580 | 5.624 | 5.088 | 6.037 |
10 | 5.693 | 5.288 | 7.845 | 7.511 | 7.987 | 7.531 | 8.973 | 7.700 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | ||||||||
NOTE: Sample is restricted to fully insured workers who lived to age 64. Excludes disabled-worker beneficiaries. |
Category | 1937 | 1938 | 1939 | 1940 | 1941 | 1942 | 1943 | 1944 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Decile 1 | ||||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 0.475 | 0.464 | 0.489 | 0.457 | 0.461 | 0.448 | 0.468 | 0.443 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 0.056 | 0.067 | 0.050 | 0.052 | 0.026 | 0.041 | 0.028 | 0.029 |
Worked after claiming | 0.051 | 0.049 | 0.036 | 0.040 | 0.034 | 0.022 | 0.026 | 0.016 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Not working at age 63 | 0.318 | 0.306 | 0.329 | 0.361 | 0.396 | 0.406 | 0.414 | 0.456 |
Working at age 63 | 0.101 | 0.114 | 0.096 | 0.091 | 0.083 | 0.084 | 0.065 | 0.056 |
Decile 2 | ||||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 0.303 | 0.310 | 0.292 | 0.296 | 0.317 | 0.278 | 0.287 | 0.267 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 0.178 | 0.177 | 0.172 | 0.139 | 0.144 | 0.140 | 0.136 | 0.116 |
Worked after claiming | 0.089 | 0.102 | 0.103 | 0.106 | 0.094 | 0.103 | 0.085 | 0.092 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Not working at age 63 | 0.158 | 0.150 | 0.156 | 0.183 | 0.173 | 0.184 | 0.191 | 0.233 |
Working at age 63 | 0.272 | 0.260 | 0.277 | 0.277 | 0.271 | 0.295 | 0.302 | 0.293 |
Decile 3 | ||||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 0.171 | 0.182 | 0.180 | 0.182 | 0.219 | 0.191 | 0.171 | 0.179 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.204 | 0.182 | 0.178 | 0.171 | 0.171 | 0.154 |
Worked after claiming | 0.167 | 0.130 | 0.120 | 0.114 | 0.126 | 0.105 | 0.114 | 0.103 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Not working at age 63 | 0.084 | 0.092 | 0.097 | 0.100 | 0.102 | 0.093 | 0.105 | 0.122 |
Working at age 63 | 0.378 | 0.397 | 0.399 | 0.423 | 0.375 | 0.439 | 0.438 | 0.442 |
Decile 4 | ||||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 0.161 | 0.196 | 0.166 | 0.170 | 0.176 | 0.193 | 0.172 | 0.157 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 0.201 | 0.204 | 0.235 | 0.211 | 0.200 | 0.172 | 0.172 | 0.172 |
Worked after claiming | 0.143 | 0.128 | 0.112 | 0.110 | 0.109 | 0.101 | 0.095 | 0.074 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Not working at age 63 | 0.049 | 0.067 | 0.053 | 0.067 | 0.063 | 0.076 | 0.077 | 0.083 |
Working at age 63 | 0.445 | 0.404 | 0.433 | 0.442 | 0.451 | 0.459 | 0.484 | 0.514 |
Decile 5 | ||||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 0.220 | 0.173 | 0.177 | 0.172 | 0.171 | 0.190 | 0.194 | 0.173 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 0.235 | 0.234 | 0.230 | 0.229 | 0.204 | 0.198 | 0.141 | 0.161 |
Worked after claiming | 0.147 | 0.110 | 0.090 | 0.099 | 0.098 | 0.090 | 0.080 | 0.080 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Not working at age 63 | 0.033 | 0.045 | 0.055 | 0.074 | 0.051 | 0.063 | 0.068 | 0.078 |
Working at age 63 | 0.364 | 0.439 | 0.448 | 0.427 | 0.476 | 0.459 | 0.517 | 0.508 |
Decile 6 | ||||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 0.237 | 0.234 | 0.199 | 0.232 | 0.229 | 0.238 | 0.218 | 0.247 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 0.244 | 0.202 | 0.215 | 0.198 | 0.177 | 0.170 | 0.172 | 0.149 |
Worked after claiming | 0.104 | 0.096 | 0.115 | 0.092 | 0.096 | 0.088 | 0.090 | 0.072 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Not working at age 63 | 0.043 | 0.035 | 0.055 | 0.055 | 0.056 | 0.056 | 0.051 | 0.060 |
Working at age 63 | 0.372 | 0.432 | 0.416 | 0.423 | 0.442 | 0.448 | 0.469 | 0.471 |
Decile 7 | ||||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 0.230 | 0.257 | 0.237 | 0.268 | 0.245 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.242 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 0.235 | 0.202 | 0.227 | 0.184 | 0.151 | 0.152 | 0.159 | 0.128 |
Worked after claiming | 0.119 | 0.103 | 0.102 | 0.095 | 0.099 | 0.083 | 0.077 | 0.054 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Not working at age 63 | 0.033 | 0.053 | 0.044 | 0.055 | 0.058 | 0.065 | 0.085 | 0.074 |
Working at age 63 | 0.383 | 0.385 | 0.390 | 0.399 | 0.447 | 0.450 | 0.454 | 0.502 |
Decile 8 | ||||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 0.255 | 0.255 | 0.267 | 0.252 | 0.217 | 0.235 | 0.243 | 0.219 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 0.171 | 0.190 | 0.167 | 0.195 | 0.163 | 0.144 | 0.145 | 0.148 |
Worked after claiming | 0.117 | 0.109 | 0.068 | 0.087 | 0.088 | 0.078 | 0.080 | 0.075 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Not working at age 63 | 0.043 | 0.038 | 0.044 | 0.059 | 0.069 | 0.058 | 0.061 | 0.078 |
Working at age 63 | 0.414 | 0.408 | 0.454 | 0.406 | 0.464 | 0.485 | 0.470 | 0.480 |
Decile 9 | ||||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 0.239 | 0.225 | 0.239 | 0.204 | 0.221 | 0.205 | 0.212 | 0.183 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 0.164 | 0.164 | 0.158 | 0.170 | 0.120 | 0.127 | 0.104 | 0.093 |
Worked after claiming | 0.095 | 0.090 | 0.068 | 0.075 | 0.074 | 0.074 | 0.071 | 0.074 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Not working at age 63 | 0.056 | 0.050 | 0.068 | 0.060 | 0.073 | 0.068 | 0.056 | 0.083 |
Working at age 63 | 0.446 | 0.469 | 0.468 | 0.490 | 0.511 | 0.527 | 0.557 | 0.567 |
Decile 10 | ||||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 0.165 | 0.149 | 0.159 | 0.121 | 0.151 | 0.124 | 0.113 | 0.100 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 0.103 | 0.113 | 0.108 | 0.084 | 0.070 | 0.070 | 0.056 | 0.060 |
Worked after claiming | 0.108 | 0.081 | 0.073 | 0.066 | 0.063 | 0.070 | 0.051 | 0.050 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||||
Not working at age 63 | 0.057 | 0.053 | 0.078 | 0.075 | 0.080 | 0.075 | 0.090 | 0.077 |
Working at age 63 | 0.568 | 0.604 | 0.582 | 0.654 | 0.636 | 0.662 | 0.690 | 0.712 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | ||||||||
NOTE: Sample is restricted to fully insured workers who lived to age 64. Excludes disabled-worker beneficiaries. |
Category | Before controlling for lifetime earnings decile | After controlling for lifetime earnings decile | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Point estimate | Confidence interval | Point estimate | Confidence interval | |||
Upper bound | Lower bound | Upper bound | Lower bound | |||
Panel A: Ages 64–66 | ||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 2.133 | 2.389 | 1.905 | 1.732 | 1.950 | 1.539 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 1.529 | 1.769 | 1.322 | 1.430 | 1.655 | 1.235 |
Worked after claiming | 1.306 | 1.611 | 1.059 | 1.189 | 1.468 | 0.964 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||
Not working at age 63 | 1.832 | 2.119 | 1.584 | 1.222 | 1.430 | 1.044 |
Working at age 63 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Panel B: Ages 67–71 | ||||||
Claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||
Ceased work before claiming | 1.746 | 1.966 | 1.551 | 1.527 | 1.726 | 1.351 |
Ceased work and claimed around the same time | 1.443 | 1.664 | 1.252 | 1.335 | 1.541 | 1.157 |
Worked after claiming | 1.359 | 1.654 | 1.118 | 1.242 | 1.512 | 1.021 |
Not claiming at age 62 and— | ||||||
Not working at age 63 | 1.564 | 1.835 | 1.333 | 1.188 | 1.409 | 1.002 |
Working at age 63 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | ||||||
NOTES: Sample is restricted to fully insured workers who lived to age 64. Excludes disabled-worker beneficiaries. | ||||||
Odds ratios are measured relative to men not claiming at age 62 and still working at age 63. Error bars indicate confidence intervals. |
Decile | 1937 | 1938 | 1939 | 1940 | 1941 | 1942 | 1943 | 1944 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All | 66.481 | 66.753 | 67.263 | 66.177 | 65.044 | 64.450 | 65.227 | 65.329 |
1 | 19.283 | 21.948 | 17.895 | 18.477 | 13.989 | 15.238 | 11.656 | 10.321 |
2 | 53.399 | 53.819 | 58.012 | 51.736 | 50.219 | 51.859 | 51.526 | 50.049 |
3 | 73.795 | 73.592 | 73.801 | 70.067 | 68.271 | 70.952 | 72.155 | 71.762 |
4–5 | 76.376 | 75.925 | 78.584 | 76.751 | 76.654 | 73.749 | 74.977 | 76.279 |
6–8 | 71.858 | 71.222 | 71.607 | 70.463 | 71.491 | 69.250 | 71.230 | 69.685 |
9 | 70.952 | 73.005 | 72.398 | 74.804 | 72.210 | 71.810 | 72.988 | 75.365 |
10 | 79.084 | 79.671 | 78.571 | 81.839 | 78.009 | 79.409 | 80.296 | 84.211 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | ||||||||
NOTE: Sample is restricted to fully insured workers who lived to age 64. Excludes disabled-worker beneficiaries. |
Decile | 1937 | 1938 | 1939 | 1940 | 1941 | 1942 | 1943 | 1944 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: All fully insured men in the decile | ||||||||
All | 14.775 | 14.328 | 13.923 | 13.130 | 11.375 | 10.796 | 10.176 | 9.369 |
1 | 3.832 | 5.516 | 3.977 | 4.143 | 2.295 | 3.333 | 2.128 | 2.532 |
2 | 15.204 | 14.101 | 13.801 | 10.414 | 11.597 | 12.011 | 10.638 | 8.763 |
3–6, 8 | 17.384 | 16.960 | 16.472 | 16.248 | 14.461 | 13.208 | 12.710 | 12.271 |
7 | 19.778 | 16.549 | 18.267 | 16.013 | 12.459 | 11.905 | 12.766 | 9.445 |
9 | 13.968 | 13.146 | 12.398 | 12.542 | 9.409 | 9.429 | 8.048 | 7.108 |
10 | 8.045 | 9.166 | 8.431 | 6.951 | 5.689 | 5.243 | 4.625 | 4.483 |
Panel B: All fully insured men working at age 61 in the decile | ||||||||
All | 22.224 | 21.464 | 20.699 | 19.841 | 17.488 | 16.750 | 15.601 | 14.341 |
1–2 | 26.190 | 25.891 | 23.421 | 20.734 | 21.635 | 22.869 | 20.205 | 18.710 |
3–8 | 24.133 | 23.081 | 22.572 | 22.360 | 19.438 | 18.288 | 17.512 | 16.337 |
9 | 19.686 | 18.006 | 17.124 | 16.766 | 13.030 | 13.130 | 11.027 | 9.432 |
10 | 10.172 | 11.504 | 10.730 | 8.493 | 7.293 | 6.603 | 5.760 | 5.324 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | ||||||||
NOTES: Panel A replicates Chart 4, Panel B. | ||||||||
Sample is restricted to fully insured workers who lived to age 64. Excludes disabled-worker beneficiaries. |
Decile | Point estimate | Confidence interval | |
---|---|---|---|
Upper bound | Lower bound | ||
Panel A: Unrestricted sample | |||
1 | 7.87 | 9.96 | 6.27 |
2 | 3.20 | 4.10 | 2.49 |
3 | 1.69 | 2.20 | 1.29 |
4 | 1.09 | 1.46 | 0.81 |
5 | 0.71 | 0.98 | 0.51 |
6 | 0.71 | 0.98 | 0.51 |
7 | 0.77 | 1.10 | 0.56 |
8 | 0.74 | 1.02 | 0.54 |
9 | 0.97 | 1.31 | 0.72 |
10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Panel B: Among workers who died or claimed by age 70 | |||
1 | 5.35 | 6.86 | 4.12 |
2 | 2.70 | 3.55 | 2.11 |
3 | 1.48 | 1.97 | 1.12 |
4 | 1.01 | 1.37 | 0.75 |
5 | 0.61 | 0.86 | 0.43 |
6 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.44 |
7 | 0.63 | 0.89 | 0.45 |
8 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.50 |
9 | 0.96 | 1.30 | 0.70 |
10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | |||
NOTE: Odds ratios are measured relative to decile 10. Error bars indicate confidence intervals. |
Decile | Point estimate | Confidence interval | |
---|---|---|---|
Upper bound | Lower bound | ||
Panel A: Unrestricted sample | |||
1 | 8.06 | 9.70 | 6.68 |
2 | 2.61 | 3.19 | 2.13 |
3 | 1.30 | 1.62 | 1.04 |
4 | 0.89 | 1.13 | 0.70 |
5 | 0.74 | 0.95 | 0.58 |
6 | 0.71 | 0.92 | 0.55 |
7 | 0.76 | 0.98 | 0.60 |
8 | 0.80 | 1.03 | 0.63 |
9 | 0.90 | 1.15 | 0.71 |
10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Panel B: Among workers who died or claimed by age 66 | |||
1 | 5.15 | 6.35 | 4.18 |
2 | 2.06 | 2.57 | 1.65 |
3 | 1.15 | 1.46 | 0.90 |
4 | 0.84 | 1.09 | 0.65 |
5 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 0.46 |
6 | 0.66 | 0.87 | 0.50 |
7 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.48 |
8 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.60 |
9 | 0.87 | 1.12 | 0.67 |
10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | |||
NOTE: Odds ratios are measured relative to decile 10. Error bars indicate confidence intervals. |
Decile | Point estimate | Confidence interval | |
---|---|---|---|
Upper bound | Lower bound | ||
Panel A: Unrestricted sample | |||
1 | 8.55 | 10.20 | 7.16 |
2 | 2.96 | 3.56 | 2.45 |
3 | 1.43 | 1.75 | 1.17 |
4 | 0.97 | 1.21 | 0.78 |
5 | 0.84 | 1.05 | 0.67 |
6 | 0.65 | 0.83 | 0.51 |
7 | 0.92 | 1.14 | 0.73 |
8 | 0.85 | 1.06 | 0.68 |
9 | 0.81 | 1.02 | 0.65 |
10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Panel B: Among workers who died or claimed by age 66 | |||
1 | 2.45 | 3.69 | 1.63 |
2 | 1.36 | 2.08 | 0.88 |
3 | 0.87 | 1.39 | 0.55 |
4 | 0.58 | 0.96 | 0.35 |
5 | 0.83 | 1.32 | 0.52 |
6 | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.32 |
7 | 0.89 | 1.41 | 0.56 |
8 | 0.70 | 1.13 | 0.43 |
9 | 0.58 | 0.98 | 0.35 |
10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
SOURCE: Author's calculations using Social Security administrative data (see Waldron 2020). | |||
NOTE: Odds ratios are measured relative to decile 10. Error bars indicate confidence intervals. |