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Social Security's Long-Term Financial Outlook

(released April 2020)

The projections and analysis in the 2020 Trustees Report do not reflect the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Social Security program. Given the uncertainty associated with these impacts, the Trustees believe that it is not possible to adjust their estimates accurately at this time.

Infographic. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (O A S I) and Disability Insurance (D I) Combined Trust Funds Reserves as the ratio of start-of-year funds reserves to that year's program cost. Reserves generally increase when fund income is greater than program cost and generally decline when program cost is greater than income. In 1970, reserves were about 100% of annual program cost. Reserves then declined until 1983 when Congress enacted amendments adjusting O A S D I for future needs. Reserves then increased until peaking in 2008 at 358% of annual program cost. After a few years at about 350% of cost, reserves started declining. The trust funds reserves are now projected (under current law) to be depleted in 2035. Image linked to data in table format. Learn more at ssa.gov/oact/tr/.
Infographic. Annual O A S D I Non-Interest Income and Cost as a percentage of O A S D I taxable payroll. Non-interest income (mainly taxes) as well as benefit payments and administrative expenses have fluctuated between 1970 and 2019, but benefits during that time were always 100% payable. In 2035, after reserves depletion, continuing non-interest income can finance 79% of scheduled benefits (these are called payable benefits). By 2094, 73% of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable. Image linked to data in table format. Learn more at ssa.gov/oact/tr/.