CATEGORY: TAXATION CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Increase Social Security payroll tax from 12.4%: To 15.2% and then to 18.0% in 2056
Start date: 2026  End date: not applicable  Proposed by: Social Security Advisory Board

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2030: Payroll Tax Increase vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Male 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
White 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Black 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Other 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Foreign 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Age
60-69 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
70-79 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
80-89 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
90+ 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Divorced 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Widowed 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Never Married 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Associate 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
High School 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
In poverty 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
$0-$30,478 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Widow(er) 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Spouse 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Disabled worker 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2030: Payroll Tax Increase vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Male 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
White 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Black 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Other 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Foreign 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Age
60-69 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
70-79 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
80-89 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
90+ 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Divorced 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Widowed 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Never Married 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Associate 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
High School 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
In poverty 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
$0-$30,478 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Widow(er) 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Spouse 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Disabled worker 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2030: Payroll Tax Increase vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0
Sex
Female 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0
Male 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0
White 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0
Black 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0
Other 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0
Country of Birth
U.S. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0
Foreign 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0
Age
60-69 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0
70-79 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0
80-89 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0
90+ 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Married 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0
Divorced 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0
Widowed 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0
Never Married 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0
Education
Graduate 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0
Bachelor 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0
Associate 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0
High School 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0
Less than 12 Yrs 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
In poverty 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$97,521 - $175,526 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$57,224 - $97,521 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0
$30,478 - $57,224 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0
$0-$30,478 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 0
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0
Widow(er) 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0
Spouse 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0
Disabled worker 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2030: Payroll Tax Increase vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 73,810 100.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sex
Female 39,993 54.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Male 33,817 45.8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 10.7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
White 54,004 73.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Black 7,559 10.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other 4,382 5.9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 84.5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Foreign 11,438 15.5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Age
60-69 24,505 33.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
70-79 31,533 42.7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
80-89 14,979 20.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
90+ 2,793 3.8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 41,785 56.6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Divorced 13,632 18.5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Widowed 12,828 17.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Never Married 5,566 7.5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Education
Graduate 8,636 11.7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bachelor 13,936 18.9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Associate 16,752 22.7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
High School 28,256 38.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 8.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 95.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
In poverty 3,604 4.9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 20.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 20.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 20.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 20.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$0-$30,478 14,763 20.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 70.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Widow(er) 12,154 16.5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spouse 6,571 8.9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Disabled worker 3,215 4.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2030: Payroll Tax Increase vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 73,810 0 0 73,810
Sex
Female 39,993 0 0 39,993
Male 33,817 0 0 33,817
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 0 0 7,865
White 54,004 0 0 54,004
Black 7,559 0 0 7,559
Other 4,382 0 0 4,382
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 0 0 62,372
Foreign 11,438 0 0 11,438
Age
60-69 24,505 0 0 24,505
70-79 31,533 0 0 31,533
80-89 14,979 0 0 14,979
90+ 2,793 0 0 2,793
Marital Status
Married 41,785 0 0 41,785
Divorced 13,632 0 0 13,632
Widowed 12,828 0 0 12,828
Never Married 5,566 0 0 5,566
Education
Graduate 8,636 0 0 8,636
Bachelor 13,936 0 0 13,936
Associate 16,752 0 0 16,752
High School 28,256 0 0 28,256
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 0 0 6,230
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 0 0 70,205
In poverty 3,604 0 0 3,604
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 0 0 14,762
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 0 0 14,762
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 0 0 14,763
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 0 0 14,759
$0-$30,478 14,763 0 0 14,763
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 0 0 51,869
Widow(er) 12,154 0 0 12,154
Spouse 6,571 0 0 6,571
Disabled worker 3,215 0 0 3,215
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.