CATEGORY: TAXATION CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Tax health insurance premiums: Apply the Social Security payroll tax to employer-sponsored health insurance premiums
Start date: 2018  End date: not applicable  Proposed by: Bipartisan Policy Center

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2030: Tax Health Insurance Premiums vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 3% 12% 20% 80%
Sex
Female 0% 3% 11% 19% 81%
Male 0% 3% 12% 20% 80%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 4% 15% 20% 80%
White 0% 3% 11% 20% 80%
Black 0% 3% 11% 20% 80%
Other 0% 3% 15% 17% 83%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 3% 11% 21% 79%
Foreign 0% 3% 16% 17% 83%
Age
60-69 0% 9% 20%
70-79 0% 0% 11%
80-89 0% 0% 1%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 3% 16% 18% 82%
Divorced 0% 2% 7% 27% 73%
Widowed 0% 1% 5% 23% 77%
Never Married 0% 3% 7% 29% 71%
Education
Graduate 0% 3% 12% 21% 79%
Bachelor 0% 4% 14% 23% 77%
Associate 0% 3% 12% 20% 80%
High School 0% 2% 11% 18% 82%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 2% 10% 16% 84%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 3% 12% 20% 80%
In poverty 0% 0% 6% 1% 99%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 4% 12% 26% 74%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 4% 15% 23% 77%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 3% 13% 19% 81%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 2% 10% 17% 83%
$0-$30,478 0% 0% 6% 3% 97%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 3% 14% 20% 80%
Widow(er) 0% 1% 2% 35% 65%
Spouse 0% 3% 11% 21% 79%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 11% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 10/30/2015 Ref #: RD0617v1
Note: — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2030: Tax Health Insurance Premiums vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 5% 4% 0% 20% 18%
Sex
Female 0% 4% 3% 0% 19% 18%
Male 0% 6% 4% 0% 21% 18%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 7% 7% 0% 22% 28%
White 0% 4% 3% 0% 19% 15%
Black 0% 5% 4% 0% 22% 23%
Other 0% 5% 4% 0% 16% 20%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 5% 3% 0% 21% 16%
Foreign 0% 6% 7% 0% 17% 26%
Age
60-69 0% 12% 6%
70-79 0% 1% 3%
80-89 0% 0% 1%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 7% 5% 0% 18% 16%
Divorced 0% 2% 2% 0% 25% 22%
Widowed 0% 1% 2% 0% 21% 23%
Never Married 0% 3% 2% 0% 29% 25%
Education
Graduate 0% 4% 2% 0% 20% 11%
Bachelor 0% 5% 3% 0% 22% 11%
Associate 0% 5% 3% 0% 20% 17%
High School 0% 5% 4% 0% 18% 21%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 4% 6% 0% 16% 37%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 5% 3% 0% 20% 17%
In poverty 0% 0% 4% 2% 73%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 5% 0% 0% 21% 1%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 7% 1% 0% 24% 4%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 7% 4% 0% 21% 17%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 5% 7% 0% 18% 38%
$0-$30,478 0% 1% 5% 3% 71%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 5% 4% 0% 20% 17%
Widow(er) 0% 2% 1% 0% 31% 24%
Spouse 0% 4% 4% 0% 20% 23%
Disabled worker 0% 9% 5% 0% 4% 30%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 10/30/2015 Ref #: RD0617v1
Note: — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2030: Tax Health Insurance Premiums vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% -5
Sex
Female 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% -6
Male 4.3% 4.3% 0.0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0
White 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% -2
Black 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0
Other 7.7% 7.6% -0.1% -2
Country of Birth
U.S. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
Foreign 8.8% 8.7% -0.1% -7
Age
60-69 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0
70-79 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% -6
80-89 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0
90+ 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Married 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% -6
Divorced 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0
Widowed 5.8% 5.8% 0.0%
Never Married 17.0% 16.9% 0.0% -2
Education
Graduate 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% -2
Bachelor 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% -5
Associate 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% -2
High School 6.1% 6.1% 0.0%
Less than 12 Yrs 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% -1
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
In poverty 100.0% 99.7% -0.3% -12
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$97,521 - $175,526 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$57,224 - $97,521 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0
$30,478 - $57,224 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% -2
$0-$30,478 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% -3
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0
Widow(er) 5.0% 4.9% 0.0% -3
Spouse 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% -2
Disabled worker 8.5% 8.4% 0.0% 0
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 10/30/2015 Ref #: RD0617v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2030: Tax Health Insurance Premiums vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 73,810 100.0 10,638 100.0 2,110 100.0 8,529 100.0
Sex
Female 39,993 54.2 5,381 50.6 1,047 49.6 4,334 50.8
Male 33,817 45.8 5,258 49.4 1,063 50.4 4,195 49.2
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 10.7 1,462 13.7 299 14.2 1,163 13.6
White 54,004 73.2 7,350 69.1 1,471 69.8 5,878 68.9
Black 7,559 10.2 1,032 9.7 206 9.8 826 9.7
Other 4,382 5.9 794 7.5 133 6.3 661 7.7
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 84.5 8,433 79.3 1,745 82.7 6,688 78.4
Foreign 11,438 15.5 2,205 20.7 365 17.3 1,840 21.6
Age
60-69 24,505 33.2 7,033 66.1 2,092 99.2 4,941 57.9
70-79 31,533 42.7 3,456 32.5 15 0.7 3,441 40.3
80-89 14,979 20.3 147 1.4 3 0.1 145 1.7
90+ 2,793 3.8 2 0.0 . . . . . . 2 0.0
Marital Status
Married 41,785 56.6 8,041 75.6 1,430 67.8 6,612 77.5
Divorced 13,632 18.5 1,242 11.7 331 15.7 911 10.7
Widowed 12,828 17.4 806 7.6 188 8.9 619 7.3
Never Married 5,566 7.5 548 5.2 161 7.6 388 4.5
Education
Graduate 8,636 11.7 1,256 11.8 258 12.2 998 11.7
Bachelor 13,936 18.9 2,470 23.2 572 27.1 1,898 22.3
Associate 16,752 22.7 2,446 23.0 501 23.7 1,946 22.8
High School 28,256 38.3 3,720 35.0 660 31.3 3,061 35.9
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 8.4 745 7.0 119 5.7 626 7.3
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 95.1 10,429 98.0 2,107 99.9 8,322 97.6
In poverty 3,604 4.9 209 2.0 2 0.1 207 2.4
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 20.0 2,492 23.4 653 31.0 1,839 21.6
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 20.0 2,941 27.6 663 31.4 2,277 26.7
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 20.0 2,418 22.7 462 21.9 1,956 22.9
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 20.0 1,830 17.2 305 14.5 1,524 17.9
$0-$30,478 14,763 20.0 958 9.0 26 1.2 932 10.9
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 70.3 8,934 84.0 1,770 83.9 7,164 84.0
Widow(er) 12,154 16.5 413 3.9 144 6.8 269 3.1
Spouse 6,571 8.9 946 8.9 196 9.3 750 8.8
Disabled worker 3,215 4.4 346 3.3 . . . . . . 346 4.1
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 10/30/2015 Ref #: RD0617v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2030: Tax Health Insurance Premiums vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 73,810 -207 -192 73,617
Sex
Female 39,993 -108 -94 39,898
Male 33,817 -99 -97 33,719
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 -30 -22 7,842
White 54,004 -141 -138 53,865
Black 7,559 -19 -14 7,545
Other 4,382 -17 -16 4,365
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 -161 -150 62,221
Foreign 11,438 -47 -41 11,396
Age
60-69 24,505 -207 -198 24,306
70-79 31,533 0 31,539
80-89 14,979 0 0 14,979
90+ 2,793 0 0 2,793
Marital Status
Married 41,785 -155 -142 41,642
Divorced 13,632 -28 -26 13,605
Widowed 12,828 -15 -14 12,813
Never Married 5,566 -8 -8 5,557
Education
Graduate 8,636 -39 -34 8,601
Bachelor 13,936 -41 -35 13,901
Associate 16,752 -44 -44 16,708
High School 28,256 -69 -63 28,192
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 -15 -14 6,216
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 -207 -194 70,011
In poverty 3,604 0 3,606
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 -74 -73 14,688
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 -90 -85 14,676
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 -32 -29 14,733
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 -10 -10 14,749
$0-$30,478 14,763 -1 14,770
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 -181 -181 51,688
Widow(er) 12,154 -8 -7 12,146
Spouse 6,571 -18 -18 6,553
Disabled worker 3,215 0 0 3,215
None 0 0 15
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 10/30/2015 Ref #: RD0617v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.