CATEGORY: WORKER BENEFIT CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Eliminate the retirement earnings test: For retired worker beneficiaries aged 62 or older and for survivor beneficiaries aged 60 or older
Start date: 2016  End date: not applicable  Proposed by: Senator Marco Rubio

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2030: Eliminate RET vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 17% 3% -4% 83% 17%
Sex
Female 0% 15% 3% -4% 83% 17%
Male 0% 20% 4% -4% 83% 17%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 14% 5% -4% 76% 24%
White 0% 18% 3% -4% 85% 15%
Black 0% 14% 3% -3% 80% 20%
Other 0% 16% 4% -4% 79% 21%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 18% 3% -4% 84% 16%
Foreign 0% 15% 4% -3% 77% 23%
Age
60-69 0% 17% 10%
70-79 0% 26% 0%
80-89 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 19% 4% -4% 82% 18%
Divorced 0% 18% 3% -4% 85% 15%
Widowed 0% 11% 2% -3% 85% 15%
Never Married 0% 18% 4% -4% 83% 17%
Education
Graduate 0% 20% 4% -4% 84% 16%
Bachelor 0% 21% 5% -4% 82% 18%
Associate 0% 18% 4% -3% 82% 18%
High School 0% 15% 3% -4% 85% 15%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 11% 3% -4% 81% 19%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 18% 4% -4% 83% 17%
In poverty 0% 5% 0% -5% 97% 3%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 22% 5% -4% 80% 20%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 23% 6% -4% 81% 19%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 19% 4% -4% 84% 16%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 13% 3% -4% 84% 16%
$0-$30,478 0% 8% 0% -4% 97% 3%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 21% 4% -4% 84% 16%
Widow(er) 0% 8% 2% -2% 81% 19%
Spouse 0% 11% 4% -2% 75% 25%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: AB0331v1
Notes: . . . = not applicable; — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2030: Eliminate RET vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 12% 4% 0% 48% 17%
Sex
Female 0% 12% 4% 0% 49% 17%
Male 0% 13% 5% 0% 46% 18%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 12% 6% 0% 50% 24%
White 0% 13% 4% 0% 48% 16%
Black 0% 11% 4% 0% 50% 21%
Other 0% 12% 5% 0% 43% 21%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 13% 4% 0% 48% 16%
Foreign 0% 12% 5% 0% 45% 23%
Age
60-69 0% 14% 12%
70-79 0% 18% 1%
80-89 0% 1% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 14% 6% 0% 42% 19%
Divorced 0% 12% 3% -1% 59% 15%
Widowed 0% 7% 2% -1% 54% 15%
Never Married 0% 12% 4% -1% 55% 17%
Education
Graduate 0% 11% 4% 0% 39% 17%
Bachelor 0% 14% 6% 0% 45% 18%
Associate 0% 13% 5% 0% 47% 19%
High School 0% 12% 4% -1% 52% 16%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 11% 3% -1% 60% 19%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 13% 5% 0% 47% 18%
In poverty 0% 5% 0% -3% 88% 3%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 6% 6% 0% 18% 20%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 17% 7% 0% 45% 20%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 17% 5% -1% 58% 17%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 14% 3% -1% 68% 16%
$0-$30,478 0% 8% 0% -3% 92% 3%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 15% 5% 0% 48% 17%
Widow(er) 0% 5% 2% -1% 52% 18%
Spouse 0% 13% 4% 0% 43% 24%
Disabled worker 0% 2% 3% . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: AB0331v1
Notes: . . . = not applicable; — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2030: Eliminate RET vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 4.9% 4.9% 0.0%
Sex
Female 5.3% 5.4%
Male 4.3% 4.4% 0.0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 8.8% 8.9%
White 3.5% 3.5% 0.0%
Black 9.0% 9.1%
Other 7.7% 7.7% 0.0%
Country of Birth
U.S. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
Foreign 8.8% 8.9%
Age
60-69 5.7% 5.8%
70-79 4.9% 5.0%
80-89 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0
90+ 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Married 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Divorced 8.3% 8.3%
Widowed 5.8% 5.9% 0.0%
Never Married 17.0% 17.2%
Education
Graduate 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Bachelor 2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Associate 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0
High School 6.1% 6.2%
Less than 12 Yrs 13.9% 13.9% 0.0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.1%
In poverty 100.0% 99.9% -0.1% -2
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$97,521 - $175,526 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$57,224 - $97,521 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0
$30,478 - $57,224 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0
$0-$30,478 23.0% 23.3%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 4.6%
Widow(er) 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0
Spouse 5.5% 5.6%
Disabled worker 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: AB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2030: Eliminate RET vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 73,810 100.0 15,192 100.0 12,612 100.0 2,580 100.0
Sex
Female 39,993 54.2 7,276 47.9 6,010 47.7 1,266 49.1
Male 33,817 45.8 7,916 52.1 6,602 52.3 1,314 50.9
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 10.7 1,497 9.9 1,136 9.0 361 14.0
White 54,004 73.2 11,477 75.5 9,710 77.0 1,767 68.5
Black 7,559 10.2 1,329 8.7 1,065 8.4 264 10.2
Other 4,382 5.9 889 5.8 700 5.6 188 7.3
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 84.5 13,009 85.6 10,922 86.6 2,087 80.9
Foreign 11,438 15.5 2,183 14.4 1,690 13.4 493 19.1
Age
60-69 24,505 33.2 6,790 44.7 4,232 33.6 2,558 99.2
70-79 31,533 42.7 8,368 55.1 8,350 66.2 18 0.7
80-89 14,979 20.3 33 0.2 29 0.2 4 0.1
90+ 2,793 3.8 1 0.0 1 0.0 . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 41,785 56.6 9,433 62.1 7,749 61.4 1,684 65.3
Divorced 13,632 18.5 2,879 18.9 2,450 19.4 429 16.6
Widowed 12,828 17.4 1,657 10.9 1,404 11.1 253 9.8
Never Married 5,566 7.5 1,223 8.0 1,009 8.0 214 8.3
Education
Graduate 8,636 11.7 2,056 13.5 1,732 13.7 324 12.5
Bachelor 13,936 18.9 3,552 23.4 2,898 23.0 654 25.3
Associate 16,752 22.7 3,650 24.0 2,982 23.6 668 25.9
High School 28,256 38.3 5,101 33.6 4,327 34.3 774 30.0
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 8.4 834 5.5 674 5.3 160 6.2
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 95.1 15,015 98.8 12,440 98.6 2,575 99.8
In poverty 3,604 4.9 177 1.2 172 1.4 5 0.2
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 20.0 4,057 26.7 3,263 25.9 794 30.8
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 20.0 4,202 27.7 3,389 26.9 813 31.5
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 20.0 3,435 22.6 2,875 22.8 560 21.7
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 20.0 2,326 15.3 1,950 15.5 376 14.6
$0-$30,478 14,763 20.0 1,172 7.7 1,135 9.0 38 1.5
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 70.3 13,104 86.3 10,975 87.0 2,129 82.5
Widow(er) 12,154 16.5 1,156 7.6 940 7.5 216 8.4
Spouse 6,571 8.9 932 6.1 697 5.5 235 9.1
Disabled worker 3,215 4.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: AB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2030: Eliminate RET vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 73,810 0 74,176
Sex
Female 39,993 0 40,188
Male 33,817 0 33,989
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 0 7,922
White 54,004 0 54,228
Black 7,559 0 7,608
Other 4,382 0 4,419
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 0 62,637
Foreign 11,438 0 11,539
Age
60-69 24,505 0 24,872
70-79 31,533 0 0 31,533
80-89 14,979 0 0 14,979
90+ 2,793 0 0 2,793
Marital Status
Married 41,785 0 42,030
Divorced 13,632 0 13,689
Widowed 12,828 0 12,856
Never Married 5,566 0 5,601
Education
Graduate 8,636 0 8,691
Bachelor 13,936 0 14,023
Associate 16,752 0 16,805
High School 28,256 0 28,367
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 0 6,290
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 0 70,569
In poverty 3,604 0 3,607
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 0 14,895
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 0 14,877
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 0 14,850
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 0 14,784
$0-$30,478 14,763 0 14,771
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 0 0 51,869
Widow(er) 12,154 0 0 12,154
Spouse 6,571 0 0 6,571
Disabled worker 3,215 0 0 3,215
None 0 0 367
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: AB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.