CATEGORY: WORKER BENEFIT CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Increase the computation period from 35 years: To 40 years (does not apply to DI)
Start date: 2015  End date: 2023  Proposed by: Social Security Advisory Board

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2030: Computation Period to 40 vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 45% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 42% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Male 0% 48% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic -1% 55% 0% -4% 100% 0%
White 0% 42% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Black 0% 47% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Other 0% 48% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 43% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Foreign -1% 55% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Age
60-69 -3% 69% 0%
70-79 -1% 50% 0%
80-89 0% 1% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married -1% 50% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Divorced 0% 45% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Widowed 0% 20% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Never Married -1% 57% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 41% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Bachelor 0% 49% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Associate 0% 45% 0% -3% 100% 0%
High School 0% 43% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 46% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 44% 0% -3% 100% 0%
In poverty 0% 47% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 45% 0% -3% 100% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 48% 0% -3% 100% 0%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 47% 0% -3% 100% 0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 42% 0% -4% 100% 0%
$0-$30,478 0% 40% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker -1% 56% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Widow(er) 0% 11% 0% -3% 99% 1%
Spouse 0% 40% 0% -2% 99% 1%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Notes: . . . = not applicable; — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2030: Computation Period to 40 vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 24% 0% -1% 51% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 22% 0% -1% 51% 0%
Male 0% 27% 0% -1% 51% 0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 34% 0% -1% 59% 0%
White 0% 22% 0% 0% 47% 0%
Black 0% 31% 0% -1% 62% 0%
Other 0% 27% 0% -1% 53% 0%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 22% 0% 0% 49% 0%
Foreign 0% 34% 0% -1% 58% 0%
Age
60-69 0% 42% 0%
70-79 0% 23% 0%
80-89 0% 1% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 26% 0% 0% 47% 0%
Divorced 0% 27% 0% -1% 61% 0%
Widowed 0% 10% 0% -1% 51% 0%
Never Married 0% 34% 0% -1% 60% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 15% 0% 0% 35% 0%
Bachelor 0% 22% 0% 0% 43% 0%
Associate 0% 25% 0% -1% 51% 0%
High School 0% 26% 0% -1% 56% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 32% 0% -1% 65% 0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 24% 0% 0% 50% 0%
In poverty 0% 36% 1% -2% 75% 1%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 3% 0% 0% 7% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 15% 0% 0% 29% 0%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 28% 0% -1% 57% 0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 38% 0% -1% 81% 0%
$0-$30,478 0% 37% 0% -3% 89% 0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 30% 0% -1% 51% 0%
Widow(er) 0% 7% 0% -1% 59% 1%
Spouse 0% 21% 0% -1% 51% 0%
Disabled worker 0% 9% 0% . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Notes: . . . = not applicable; — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2030: Computation Period to 40 vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 4.9% 5.2%
Sex
Female 5.3% 5.6%
Male 4.3% 4.7%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 8.8% 9.3%
White 3.5% 3.8%
Black 9.0% 9.5%
Other 7.7% 8.1%
Country of Birth
U.S. 4.2% 4.4%
Foreign 8.8% 9.3%
Age
60-69 5.7% 6.3%
70-79 4.9% 5.2%
80-89 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0
90+ 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Married 1.9% 2.0%
Divorced 8.3% 9.0%
Widowed 5.8% 6.0%
Never Married 17.0% 17.9%
Education
Graduate 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0
Bachelor 2.2% 2.4%
Associate 3.6% 3.9%
High School 6.1% 6.5%
Less than 12 Yrs 13.9% 14.2%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.3%
In poverty 100.0% 99.9% -0.1% -2
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
$57,224 - $97,521 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0.8% 0.9%
$0-$30,478 23.0% 24.4%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 4.9%
Widow(er) 5.0% 5.0%
Spouse 5.5% 5.9%
Disabled worker 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2030: Computation Period to 40 vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 73,810 100.0 32,911 100.0 32,878 100.0 33 100.0
Sex
Female 39,993 54.2 16,715 50.8 16,682 50.7 33 100.0
Male 33,817 45.8 16,196 49.2 16,196 49.3 . . . . . .
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 10.7 4,321 13.1 4,317 13.1 4 11.8
White 54,004 73.2 22,948 69.7 22,921 69.7 27 81.9
Black 7,559 10.2 3,528 10.7 3,526 10.7 2 6.3
Other 4,382 5.9 2,114 6.4 2,114 6.4 . . . . . .
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 84.5 26,631 80.9 26,604 80.9 27 81.2
Foreign 11,438 15.5 6,280 19.1 6,274 19.1 6 18.8
Age
60-69 24,505 33.2 16,967 51.6 16,944 51.5 23 68.0
70-79 31,533 42.7 15,795 48.0 15,785 48.0 11 32.0
80-89 14,979 20.3 147 0.4 147 0.4 . . . . . .
90+ 2,793 3.8 3 0.0 3 0.0 . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 41,785 56.6 21,080 64.1 21,057 64.0 24 70.5
Divorced 13,632 18.5 6,141 18.7 6,140 18.7 1 3.1
Widowed 12,828 17.4 2,523 7.7 2,514 7.6 9 26.4
Never Married 5,566 7.5 3,167 9.6 3,167 9.6 . . . . . .
Education
Graduate 8,636 11.7 3,541 10.8 3,539 10.8 2 4.6
Bachelor 13,936 18.9 6,799 20.7 6,788 20.6 11 32.5
Associate 16,752 22.7 7,592 23.1 7,589 23.1 3 8.4
High School 28,256 38.3 12,099 36.8 12,083 36.8 16 47.5
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 8.4 2,881 8.8 2,879 8.8 2 7.0
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 95.1 31,213 94.8 31,180 94.8 32 96.9
In poverty 3,604 4.9 1,699 5.2 1,698 5.2 1 3.1
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 20.0 6,662 20.2 6,654 20.2 7 22.4
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 20.0 7,151 21.7 7,145 21.7 6 18.7
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 20.0 6,927 21.0 6,919 21.0 7 22.0
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 20.0 6,269 19.0 6,264 19.1 5 15.1
$0-$30,478 14,763 20.0 5,903 17.9 5,896 17.9 7 21.8
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 70.3 28,954 88.0 28,954 88.1 . . . . . .
Widow(er) 12,154 16.5 1,332 4.0 1,323 4.0 10 29.5
Spouse 6,571 8.9 2,625 8.0 2,602 7.9 24 70.5
Disabled worker 3,215 4.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2030: Computation Period to 40 vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 73,810 -49 -49 73,761
Sex
Female 39,993 -23 -22 39,970
Male 33,817 -26 -26 33,791
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 -9 -9 7,856
White 54,004 -33 -33 53,970
Black 7,559 0 0 7,559
Other 4,382 -6 -6 4,375
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 -34 -34 62,338
Foreign 11,438 -15 -14 11,423
Age
60-69 24,505 -49 -49 24,456
70-79 31,533 0 0 31,533
80-89 14,979 0 0 14,979
90+ 2,793 0 0 2,793
Marital Status
Married 41,785 -32 -31 41,753
Divorced 13,632 -14 -14 13,618
Widowed 12,828 -3 -3 12,825
Never Married 5,566 0 0 5,566
Education
Graduate 8,636 -11 -10 8,625
Bachelor 13,936 -10 -10 13,925
Associate 16,752 -13 -13 16,739
High School 28,256 -15 -14 28,241
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 0 0 6,230
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 -49 -49 70,156
In poverty 3,604 0 0 3,604
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 -15 -15 14,747
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 -16 -16 14,746
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 -14 -14 14,749
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 -4 -3 14,755
$0-$30,478 14,763 0 0 14,763
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 -46 -45 51,823
Widow(er) 12,154 0 0 12,154
Spouse 6,571 -3 -3 6,568
Disabled worker 3,215 0 0 3,215
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.