CATEGORY: WORKER BENEFIT CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Index PIA factors to longevity: Multiply factors by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 in 2018 to the life expectancy at age 67 in the 4th year prior to the year of initial benefit eligibility
Start date: 2023  End date: not applicable  Proposed by: Bipartisan Policy Center

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2030: Index PIA Factors to Longevity vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 12% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 11% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Male 0% 13% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 18% 0% -1% 100% 0%
White 0% 10% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Black 0% 13% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Other 0% 13% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 11% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Foreign 0% 16% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Age
60-69 0% 35% 0%
70-79 0% 0% 0%
80-89 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 13% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Divorced 0% 12% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Widowed 0% 6% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Never Married 0% 15% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 8% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Bachelor 0% 12% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Associate 0% 13% 0% -1% 100% 0%
High School 0% 11% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 13% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 12% 0% -1% 100% 0%
In poverty 0% 14% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 12% 0% -1% 100% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 13% 0% -1% 100% 0%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 12% 0% -1% 100% 0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 11% 0% -1% 100% 0%
$0-$30,478 0% 10% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 14% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Widow(er) 0% 5% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Spouse 0% 7% 0% -1% 100% 0%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: RD0714v1
Notes: . . . = not applicable; — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2030: Index PIA Factors to Longevity vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 2% 0% 0% 16% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 16% 0%
Male 0% 2% 0% 0% 15% 0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 20% 0%
White 0% 1% 0% 0% 13% 0%
Black 0% 3% 0% 0% 21% 0%
Other 0% 2% 0% 0% 15% 0%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 2% 0% 0% 15% 0%
Foreign 0% 3% 0% 0% 19% 0%
Age
60-69 0% 5% 0%
70-79 0% 0% 0%
80-89 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 1% 0% 0% 8% 0%
Divorced 0% 4% 0% 0% 30% 0%
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 27% 0%
Never Married 0% 4% 0% 0% 26% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 6% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 9% 0%
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 15% 0%
High School 0% 2% 0% 0% 19% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 3% 0% 0% 24% 0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 12% 0%
In poverty 0% 10% 0% -1% 68% 0%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 2% 0% 0% 16% 0%
$0-$30,478 0% 7% 0% -1% 63% 0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 2% 0% 0% 14% 0%
Widow(er) 0% 2% 0% 0% 32% 0%
Spouse 0% 2% 0% 0% 22% 0%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: RD0714v1
Notes: . . . = not applicable; — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2030: Index PIA Factors to Longevity vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 4.9% 4.9% 0.0%
Sex
Female 5.3% 5.4% 0.0%
Male 4.3% 4.4% 0.0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 8.8% 8.9%
White 3.5% 3.5% 0.0%
Black 9.0% 9.0% 0.0%
Other 7.7% 7.8%
Country of Birth
U.S. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
Foreign 8.8% 8.8% 0.0%
Age
60-69 5.7% 5.8%
70-79 4.9% 4.9% 0.0%
80-89 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0
90+ 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Married 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Divorced 8.3% 8.3%
Widowed 5.8% 5.8% 0.0%
Never Married 17.0% 17.0%
Education
Graduate 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0
Bachelor 2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Associate 3.6% 3.6%
High School 6.1% 6.1% 0.0%
Less than 12 Yrs 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
In poverty 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$97,521 - $175,526 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$57,224 - $97,521 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0
$0-$30,478 23.0% 23.2%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 4.6% 0.0%
Widow(er) 5.0% 5.0% 0.0%
Spouse 5.5% 5.6%
Disabled worker 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: RD0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2030: Index PIA Factors to Longevity vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 73,810 100.0 8,595 100.0 8,593 100.0 1 100.0
Sex
Female 39,993 54.2 4,331 50.4 4,331 50.4 . . . . . .
Male 33,817 45.8 4,264 49.6 4,263 49.6 1 100.0
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 10.7 1,429 16.6 1,429 16.6 . . . . . .
White 54,004 73.2 5,591 65.1 5,590 65.0 1 100.0
Black 7,559 10.2 1,020 11.9 1,020 11.9 . . . . . .
Other 4,382 5.9 555 6.5 555 6.5 . . . . . .
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 84.5 6,805 79.2 6,803 79.2 1 100.0
Foreign 11,438 15.5 1,790 20.8 1,790 20.8 . . . . . .
Age
60-69 24,505 33.2 8,464 98.5 8,462 98.5 1 100.0
70-79 31,533 42.7 122 1.4 122 1.4 . . . . . .
80-89 14,979 20.3 9 0.1 9 0.1 . . . . . .
90+ 2,793 3.8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 41,785 56.6 5,340 62.1 5,340 62.1 . . . . . .
Divorced 13,632 18.5 1,650 19.2 1,650 19.2 . . . . . .
Widowed 12,828 17.4 764 8.9 763 8.9 1 100.0
Never Married 5,566 7.5 841 9.8 841 9.8 . . . . . .
Education
Graduate 8,636 11.7 710 8.3 710 8.3 . . . . . .
Bachelor 13,936 18.9 1,620 18.8 1,620 18.8 . . . . . .
Associate 16,752 22.7 2,222 25.8 2,220 25.8 1 100.0
High School 28,256 38.3 3,222 37.5 3,222 37.5 . . . . . .
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 8.4 822 9.6 822 9.6 . . . . . .
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 95.1 8,081 94.0 8,081 94.0 . . . . . .
In poverty 3,604 4.9 514 6.0 513 6.0 1 100.0
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 20.0 1,787 20.8 1,787 20.8 . . . . . .
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 20.0 1,856 21.6 1,856 21.6 . . . . . .
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 20.0 1,816 21.1 1,816 21.1 . . . . . .
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 20.0 1,603 18.7 1,603 18.7 . . . . . .
$0-$30,478 14,763 20.0 1,532 17.8 1,530 17.8 1 100.0
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 70.3 7,484 87.1 7,484 87.1 . . . . . .
Widow(er) 12,154 16.5 647 7.5 645 7.5 1 100.0
Spouse 6,571 8.9 464 5.4 464 5.4 . . . . . .
Disabled worker 3,215 4.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: RD0714v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2030: Index PIA Factors to Longevity vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 73,810 -20 -20 73,789
Sex
Female 39,993 -4 -4 39,988
Male 33,817 -16 -15 33,801
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 -7 -6 7,858
White 54,004 -12 -11 53,992
Black 7,559 0 0 7,559
Other 4,382 -2 -1 4,380
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 -11 -10 62,361
Foreign 11,438 -10 -9 11,428
Age
60-69 24,505 -20 -20 24,485
70-79 31,533 0 0 31,533
80-89 14,979 0 0 14,979
90+ 2,793 0 0 2,793
Marital Status
Married 41,785 -6 -6 41,778
Divorced 13,632 -6 -5 13,626
Widowed 12,828 -8 -8 12,820
Never Married 5,566 0 0 5,566
Education
Graduate 8,636 -7 -6 8,629
Bachelor 13,936 -3 -3 13,933
Associate 16,752 -2 -1 16,750
High School 28,256 -9 -8 28,247
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 0 0 6,230
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 -20 -20 70,185
In poverty 3,604 0 0 3,604
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 -8 -8 14,754
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 -7 -6 14,756
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 -5 -4 14,758
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 0 0 14,758
$0-$30,478 14,763 0 0 14,763
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 -12 -12 51,856
Widow(er) 12,154 -8 -8 12,146
Spouse 6,571 0 0 6,571
Disabled worker 3,215 0 0 3,215
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: RD0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.