CATEGORY: WORKER BENEFIT CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Price index the PIA formula: Protect the bottom 30% of workers from price indexing
Start date: 2020  End date: not applicable  Proposed by: Social Security Advisory Board

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2030: Price Index PIA, Protect Bottom 30% vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 27% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 23% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Male 0% 31% 0% -6% 100% 0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 26% 0% -5% 100% 0%
White 0% 27% 0% -6% 100% 0%
Black 0% 25% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Other 0% 26% 0% -6% 100% 0%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 27% 0% -6% 100% 0%
Foreign 0% 25% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Age
60-69 -3% 61% 0% -7% 100% 0%
70-79 0% 14% 0% -3% 100% 0%
80-89 0% 0% 0% -6% 100% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 0% 30% 0% -6% 100% 0%
Divorced 0% 28% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Widowed 0% 15% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Never Married 0% 27% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 27% 0% -7% 100% 0%
Bachelor 0% 32% 0% -7% 100% 0%
Associate 0% 29% 0% -6% 100% 0%
High School 0% 24% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 17% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 28% 0% -6% 100% 0%
In poverty 0% 1% 0% -2% 100% 0%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 33% 0% -7% 100% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 33% 0% -6% 100% 0%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 30% 0% -5% 100% 0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 24% 0% -5% 100% 0%
$0-$30,478 0% 12% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 29% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Widow(er) 0% 14% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Spouse 0% 24% 0% -6% 100% 0%
Disabled worker 0% 36% 0% -6% 100% 0%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v2
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2030: Price Index PIA, Protect Bottom 30% vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 20% 0% -1% 71% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 17% 0% -1% 69% 0%
Male 0% 24% 0% -1% 72% 0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 20% 0% -1% 69% 0%
White 0% 21% 0% -1% 71% 0%
Black 0% 19% 0% -1% 72% 0%
Other 0% 18% 0% -1% 64% 0%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 21% 0% -1% 72% 0%
Foreign 0% 18% 0% -1% 65% 0%
Age
60-69 0% 49% 0% -1% 76% 0%
70-79 0% 9% 0% -1% 51% 0%
80-89 0% 1% 0% -2% 84% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0% . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 0% 23% 0% -1% 68% 0%
Divorced 0% 21% 0% -2% 76% 0%
Widowed 0% 11% 0% -1% 75% 0%
Never Married 0% 20% 0% -1% 76% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 18% 0% -1% 65% 0%
Bachelor 0% 25% 0% -1% 71% 0%
Associate 0% 23% 0% -1% 74% 0%
High School 0% 19% 0% -1% 71% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 12% 0% -1% 63% 0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 21% 0% -1% 71% 0%
In poverty 0% 1% 0% -1% 79% 0%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 15% 0% 0% 44% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 26% 0% -1% 73% 0%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 26% 0% -2% 78% 0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 22% 0% -2% 84% 0%
$0-$30,478 0% 11% 0% -2% 91% 0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 22% 0% -1% 68% 0%
Widow(er) 0% 12% 0% -2% 79% 0%
Spouse 0% 20% 0% -2% 82% 0%
Disabled worker 0% 31% 0% -2% 75% 0%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v2
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2030: Price Index PIA, Protect Bottom 30% vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 4.9% 4.9% 0.0%
Sex
Female 5.3% 5.4% 0.0%
Male 4.3% 4.4% 0.0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 8.8% 8.8% 0.0%
White 3.5% 3.6% 0.0%
Black 9.0% 9.0%
Other 7.7% 7.8%
Country of Birth
U.S. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
Foreign 8.8% 8.8% 0.0%
Age
60-69 5.7% 5.9%
70-79 4.9% 4.9% 0.0%
80-89 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0
90+ 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Married 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Divorced 8.3% 8.4%
Widowed 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0
Never Married 17.0% 17.0%
Education
Graduate 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0
Bachelor 2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Associate 3.6% 3.6%
High School 6.1% 6.2%
Less than 12 Yrs 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
In poverty 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$57,224 - $97,521 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0
$0-$30,478 23.0% 23.2%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 4.6% 0.0%
Widow(er) 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0
Spouse 5.5% 5.8%
Disabled worker 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v2
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2030: Price Index PIA, Protect Bottom 30% vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 73,810 100.0 19,588 100.0 19,586 100.0 3 100.0
Sex
Female 39,993 54.2 9,148 46.7 9,146 46.7 3 100.0
Male 33,817 45.8 10,440 53.3 10,440 53.3 . . . . . .
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 10.7 2,065 10.5 2,065 10.5 . . . . . .
White 54,004 73.2 14,514 74.1 14,511 74.1 3 100.0
Black 7,559 10.2 1,852 9.5 1,852 9.5 . . . . . .
Other 4,382 5.9 1,158 5.9 1,158 5.9 . . . . . .
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 84.5 16,742 85.5 16,740 85.5 3 100.0
Foreign 11,438 15.5 2,846 14.5 2,846 14.5 . . . . . .
Age
60-69 24,505 33.2 15,008 76.6 15,006 76.6 3 100.0
70-79 31,533 42.7 4,529 23.1 4,529 23.1 . . . . . .
80-89 14,979 20.3 51 0.3 51 0.3 . . . . . .
90+ 2,793 3.8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 41,785 56.6 12,365 63.1 12,365 63.1 . . . . . .
Divorced 13,632 18.5 3,780 19.3 3,780 19.3 . . . . . .
Widowed 12,828 17.4 1,953 10.0 1,950 10.0 3 100.0
Never Married 5,566 7.5 1,491 7.6 1,491 7.6 . . . . . .
Education
Graduate 8,636 11.7 2,342 12.0 2,342 12.0 . . . . . .
Bachelor 13,936 18.9 4,526 23.1 4,526 23.1 . . . . . .
Associate 16,752 22.7 4,919 25.1 4,917 25.1 1 51.6
High School 28,256 38.3 6,757 34.5 6,757 34.5 . . . . . .
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 8.4 1,045 5.3 1,043 5.3 1 48.4
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 95.1 19,536 99.7 19,533 99.7 3 100.0
In poverty 3,604 4.9 52 0.3 52 0.3 . . . . . .
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 20.0 4,941 25.2 4,941 25.2 . . . . . .
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 20.0 4,885 24.9 4,885 24.9 . . . . . .
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 20.0 4,455 22.7 4,455 22.7 . . . . . .
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 20.0 3,508 17.9 3,508 17.9 . . . . . .
$0-$30,478 14,763 20.0 1,800 9.2 1,798 9.2 3 100.0
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 70.3 15,073 76.9 15,073 77.0 . . . . . .
Widow(er) 12,154 16.5 1,750 8.9 1,747 8.9 3 100.0
Spouse 6,571 8.9 1,598 8.2 1,598 8.2 . . . . . .
Disabled worker 3,215 4.4 1,168 6.0 1,168 6.0 . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v2
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2030: Price Index PIA, Protect Bottom 30% vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 73,810 -91 -90 73,719
Sex
Female 39,993 -30 -29 39,963
Male 33,817 -61 -60 33,756
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 -10 -9 7,856
White 54,004 -74 -74 53,929
Black 7,559 0 0 7,559
Other 4,382 -7 -6 4,375
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 -72 -71 62,300
Foreign 11,438 -19 -18 11,419
Age
60-69 24,505 -91 -90 24,414
70-79 31,533 0 0 31,533
80-89 14,979 0 0 14,979
90+ 2,793 0 0 2,793
Marital Status
Married 41,785 -54 -53 41,731
Divorced 13,632 -22 -22 13,610
Widowed 12,828 -12 -12 12,815
Never Married 5,566 -3 -2 5,563
Education
Graduate 8,636 -26 -26 8,610
Bachelor 13,936 -29 -28 13,907
Associate 16,752 -17 -17 16,735
High School 28,256 -15 -14 28,241
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 -4 -3 6,227
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 -91 -90 70,114
In poverty 3,604 0 0 3,604
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 -39 -38 14,723
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 -42 -41 14,720
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 -7 -7 14,756
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 -3 -3 14,756
$0-$30,478 14,763 0 0 14,763
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 -82 -82 51,786
Widow(er) 12,154 -4 -3 12,151
Spouse 6,571 -5 -4 6,567
Disabled worker 3,215 0 0 3,215
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v2
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.