CATEGORY: WORKER BENEFIT CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Reduce the 90%, 32%, and 15% PIA factors: To 90%, 21%, and 10% over a 31-year period
Start date: 2015  End date: not applicable  Proposed by: Social Security Advisory Board

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2030: PIA Factors to 90-21-10 vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total -1% 53% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 49% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Male -2% 58% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic -1% 59% 0% -4% 100% 0%
White -1% 52% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Black -1% 53% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Other -1% 52% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Country of Birth
U.S. -1% 52% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Foreign -1% 56% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Age
60-69 -5% 84% 0%
70-79 -1% 58% 0%
80-89 0% 1% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married -1% 58% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Divorced -1% 55% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Widowed 0% 34% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Never Married -1% 55% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Education
Graduate -1% 50% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Bachelor -2% 58% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Associate -1% 56% 0% -4% 100% 0%
High School -1% 51% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 46% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty -1% 55% 0% -4% 100% 0%
In poverty 0% 20% 0% -2% 100% 0%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ -2% 58% 0% -5% 100% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 -2% 60% 0% -4% 100% 0%
$57,224 - $97,521 -2% 58% 0% -4% 100% 0%
$30,478 - $57,224 -1% 52% 0% -3% 100% 0%
$0-$30,478 0% 38% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker -1% 58% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Widow(er) 0% 32% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Spouse 0% 49% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Disabled worker -2% 65% 0% -5% 100% 0%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v3
Note: — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2030: PIA Factors to 90-21-10 vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 35% 0% -1% 64% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 32% 0% -1% 63% 0%
Male 0% 40% 0% -1% 65% 0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 40% 0% -1% 66% 0%
White 0% 34% 0% -1% 64% 0%
Black 0% 39% 0% -1% 69% 0%
Other 0% 31% 0% -1% 59% 0%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 35% 0% -1% 65% 0%
Foreign 0% 35% 0% -1% 61% 0%
Age
60-69 -1% 64% 0%
70-79 0% 32% 0%
80-89 0% 1% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 38% 0% -1% 62% 0%
Divorced 0% 38% 0% -1% 70% 0%
Widowed 0% 22% 0% -1% 66% 0%
Never Married 0% 39% 0% -1% 70% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 27% 0% -1% 52% 0%
Bachelor 0% 37% 0% -1% 62% 0%
Associate 0% 39% 0% -1% 67% 0%
High School 0% 36% 0% -1% 68% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 31% 0% -1% 63% 0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 36% 0% -1% 64% 0%
In poverty 0% 17% 0% -1% 81% 0%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 17% 0% 0% 29% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 36% 0% -1% 59% 0%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 43% 0% -1% 72% 0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 44% 0% -2% 81% 0%
$0-$30,478 0% 36% 0% -2% 91% 0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 37% 0% -1% 62% 0%
Widow(er) 0% 24% 0% -1% 73% 0%
Spouse 0% 34% 0% -1% 69% 0%
Disabled worker 0% 49% 0% -1% 71% 0%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v3
Note: — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2030: PIA Factors to 90-21-10 vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 4.9% 5.1%
Sex
Female 5.3% 5.5%
Male 4.3% 4.5%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 8.8% 9.0%
White 3.5% 3.7%
Black 9.0% 9.3%
Other 7.7% 7.8%
Country of Birth
U.S. 4.2% 4.4%
Foreign 8.8% 9.0%
Age
60-69 5.7% 6.1%
70-79 4.9% 5.1%
80-89 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0
90+ 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Married 1.9% 1.9%
Divorced 8.3% 8.7%
Widowed 5.8% 6.0%
Never Married 17.0% 17.4%
Education
Graduate 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Bachelor 2.2% 2.2%
Associate 3.6% 3.8%
High School 6.1% 6.3%
Less than 12 Yrs 13.9% 14.1%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.2%
In poverty 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0.1% 0.2%
$97,521 - $175,526 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$57,224 - $97,521 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
$0-$30,478 23.0% 23.9%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 4.8%
Widow(er) 5.0% 5.1%
Spouse 5.5% 5.8%
Disabled worker 8.5% 8.5%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v3
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2030: PIA Factors to 90-21-10 vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 73,810 100.0 39,137 100.0 39,106 100.0 31 100.0
Sex
Female 39,993 54.2 19,453 49.7 19,433 49.7 20 65.5
Male 33,817 45.8 19,683 50.3 19,673 50.3 11 34.5
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 10.7 4,669 11.9 4,665 11.9 3 11.3
White 54,004 73.2 28,141 71.9 28,121 71.9 20 65.7
Black 7,559 10.2 4,047 10.3 4,043 10.3 4 12.5
Other 4,382 5.9 2,279 5.8 2,276 5.8 3 10.6
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 84.5 32,750 83.7 32,727 83.7 23 74.4
Foreign 11,438 15.5 6,387 16.3 6,379 16.3 8 25.6
Age
60-69 24,505 33.2 20,570 52.6 20,555 52.6 15 47.6
70-79 31,533 42.7 18,375 46.9 18,358 46.9 16 52.4
80-89 14,979 20.3 191 0.5 191 0.5 . . . . . .
90+ 2,793 3.8 1 0.0 1 0.0 . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 41,785 56.6 24,280 62.0 24,262 62.0 19 61.0
Divorced 13,632 18.5 7,439 19.0 7,439 19.0 . . . . . .
Widowed 12,828 17.4 4,330 11.1 4,318 11.0 12 39.0
Never Married 5,566 7.5 3,087 7.9 3,087 7.9 . . . . . .
Education
Graduate 8,636 11.7 4,322 11.0 4,322 11.1 . . . . . .
Bachelor 13,936 18.9 8,016 20.5 8,016 20.5 . . . . . .
Associate 16,752 22.7 9,391 24.0 9,384 24.0 7 21.7
High School 28,256 38.3 14,507 37.1 14,492 37.1 15 47.6
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 8.4 2,900 7.4 2,891 7.4 9 30.8
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 95.1 38,404 98.1 38,373 98.1 31 100.0
In poverty 3,604 4.9 733 1.9 733 1.9 . . . . . .
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 20.0 8,498 21.7 8,492 21.7 6 18.2
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 20.0 8,817 22.5 8,817 22.5 0 0.4
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 20.0 8,520 21.8 8,517 21.8 3 10.8
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 20.0 7,677 19.6 7,661 19.6 16 52.1
$0-$30,478 14,763 20.0 5,625 14.4 5,620 14.4 6 18.5
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 70.3 29,935 76.5 29,935 76.5 . . . . . .
Widow(er) 12,154 16.5 3,873 9.9 3,855 9.9 18 59.3
Spouse 6,571 8.9 3,233 8.3 3,221 8.2 13 40.7
Disabled worker 3,215 4.4 2,095 5.4 2,095 5.4 . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v3
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2030: PIA Factors to 90-21-10 vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 73,810 -84 -84 73,725
Sex
Female 39,993 -33 -32 39,960
Male 33,817 -51 -51 33,765
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 -12 -12 7,853
White 54,004 -65 -65 53,938
Black 7,559 0 0 7,559
Other 4,382 -7 -6 4,375
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 -63 -62 62,309
Foreign 11,438 -21 -21 11,417
Age
60-69 24,505 -84 -84 24,421
70-79 31,533 0 0 31,533
80-89 14,979 0 0 14,979
90+ 2,793 0 0 2,793
Marital Status
Married 41,785 -51 -51 41,733
Divorced 13,632 -22 -21 13,610
Widowed 12,828 -9 -8 12,819
Never Married 5,566 -3 -2 5,563
Education
Graduate 8,636 -21 -20 8,615
Bachelor 13,936 -24 -24 13,911
Associate 16,752 -17 -17 16,735
High School 28,256 -18 -18 28,238
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 -4 -3 6,227
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 -84 -84 70,121
In poverty 3,604 0 0 3,604
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 -32 -31 14,730
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 -34 -33 14,729
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 -16 -15 14,747
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 -3 -3 14,756
$0-$30,478 14,763 0 0 14,763
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 -79 -79 51,789
Widow(er) 12,154 0 0 12,154
Spouse 6,571 -5 -4 6,567
Disabled worker 3,215 0 0 3,215
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v3
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.