Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
Total
|
Male
|
Female
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total
|
Permanently
insured |
Not
permanently insured |
Total
|
Permanently
insured |
Not
permanently insured |
Total
|
Permanently
insured |
Not
permanently insured |
|
|
1980
|
140.5
|
85.4
|
55.0
|
76.6
|
51.6
|
25.1
|
63.8
|
33.9
|
30.0
|
|
1981
|
143.0
|
88.1
|
54.9
|
77.6
|
52.7
|
25.0
|
65.3
|
35.4
|
29.9
|
|
1982
|
144.8
|
90.8
|
54.0
|
78.3
|
53.8
|
24.5
|
66.5
|
37.0
|
29.5
|
|
1983
|
146.6
|
94.1
|
52.5
|
79.0
|
55.2
|
23.8
|
67.6
|
38.9
|
28.7
|
|
1984
|
148.3
|
96.9
|
51.4
|
79.6
|
56.3
|
23.3
|
68.7
|
40.6
|
28.1
|
|
1985
|
151.0
|
100.1
|
50.8
|
80.7
|
57.6
|
23.1
|
70.2
|
42.5
|
27.7
|
|
1986
|
153.3
|
103.4
|
49.9
|
81.7
|
59.0
|
22.7
|
71.6
|
44.4
|
27.2
|
|
1987
|
155.8
|
107.4
|
48.3
|
82.7
|
60.8
|
21.9
|
73.0
|
46.6
|
26.4
|
|
1988
|
158.3
|
110.7
|
47.7
|
83.8
|
62.1
|
21.7
|
74.5
|
48.5
|
26.0
|
|
1989
|
161.5
|
113.7
|
47.8
|
85.4
|
63.4
|
22.0
|
76.1
|
50.4
|
25.8
|
|
1990
|
164.0
|
116.4
|
47.6
|
86.5
|
64.3
|
22.1
|
77.5
|
52.0
|
25.5
|
|
1991
|
165.8
|
118.6
|
47.2
|
87.2
|
65.1
|
22.1
|
78.6
|
53.5
|
25.1
|
|
1992
|
167.4
|
121.1
|
46.4
|
87.9
|
66.0
|
21.9
|
79.6
|
55.1
|
24.5
|
|
1993
|
169.3
|
123.7
|
45.6
|
88.6
|
67.0
|
21.6
|
80.7
|
56.7
|
24.0
|
|
1994
|
170.9
|
126.0
|
44.9
|
89.2
|
67.8
|
21.4
|
81.7
|
58.2
|
23.5
|
|
1995
|
173.2
|
128.4
|
44.8
|
90.2
|
68.8
|
21.4
|
83.0
|
59.6
|
23.4
|
|
1996
|
175.4
|
131.0
|
44.4
|
91.1
|
69.8
|
21.3
|
84.3
|
61.1
|
23.1
|
|
1997
|
177.9
|
133.8
|
44.0
|
92.2
|
71.1
|
21.0
|
85.7
|
62.7
|
23.0
|
|
1998
|
180.4
|
136.4
|
44.0
|
93.2
|
72.3
|
21.0
|
87.1
|
64.1
|
23.0
|
|
1999
|
182.9
|
138.7
|
44.2
|
94.3
|
73.3
|
21.1
|
88.6
|
65.4
|
23.2
|
|
2000
|
185.5
|
140.6
|
44.8
|
95.6
|
74.2
|
21.4
|
89.8
|
66.5
|
23.4
|
|
2001
|
187.7
|
142.6
|
45.2
|
96.6
|
75.0
|
21.6
|
91.1
|
67.6
|
23.5
|
|
2002
|
189.6
|
144.5
|
45.1
|
97.4
|
75.8
|
21.6
|
92.2
|
68.7
|
23.5
|
|
2003
|
191.5
|
146.6
|
44.9
|
98.4
|
76.7
|
21.7
|
93.1
|
69.9
|
23.2
|
|
2004
|
193.7
|
148.5
|
45.2
|
99.4
|
77.6
|
21.8
|
94.3
|
70.9
|
23.4
|
|
2005
|
195.8
|
150.4
|
45.4
|
100.4
|
78.5
|
21.9
|
95.4
|
71.9
|
23.5
|
|
2006
|
198.0
|
152.4
|
45.6
|
101.4
|
79.4
|
21.9
|
96.6
|
72.9
|
23.7
|
|
2007
|
200.1
|
154.4
|
45.7
|
102.3
|
80.3
|
22.0
|
97.8
|
74.0
|
23.8
|
|
2008
|
202.3
|
156.4
|
45.9
|
103.3
|
81.3
|
22.0
|
99.0
|
75.1
|
23.9
|
|
2009
|
204.6
|
158.4
|
46.2
|
104.3
|
82.2
|
22.1
|
100.3
|
76.2
|
24.1
|
|
2010
|
206.8
|
160.4
|
46.4
|
105.3
|
83.1
|
22.2
|
101.5
|
77.3
|
24.2
|
|
2011
|
209.1
|
162.4
|
46.7
|
106.3
|
84.0
|
22.3
|
102.8
|
78.4
|
24.4
|
|
2012
|
211.4
|
164.4
|
47.0
|
107.3
|
85.0
|
22.3
|
104.0
|
79.4
|
24.6
|
|
2013
|
213.6
|
166.3
|
47.3
|
108.4
|
85.9
|
22.5
|
105.3
|
80.4
|
24.8
|
|
2014
|
216.0
|
168.2
|
47.8
|
109.4
|
86.8
|
22.6
|
106.6
|
81.4
|
25.1
|
| 1Figures exclude workers who are currently insured only; such workers are insured for certain survivor benefits only. There were 2.6 million such workers at the end of 2001. |
Source: Estimates prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary based on data from Continuous Work History Sample.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.