Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
1,948.3
|
$352.37
|
291.2
|
$440.75
|
304.5
|
0.9500
|
$382.64
|
1,934.9
|
$406.55
|
1.0006
|
$406.79
|
|
1981
|
11.2
|
1,934.9
|
406.55
|
264.7
|
475.27
|
320.1
|
.9359
|
423.10
|
1,879.5
|
453.91
|
1.0007
|
454.23
|
|
1982
|
7.4
|
1,879.5
|
453.91
|
233.6
|
492.88
|
353.2
|
.9571
|
466.61
|
1,759.9
|
485.56
|
1.0000
|
485.55
|
|
1983
|
3.5
|
1,759.9
|
485.56
|
296.5
|
497.07
|
311.1
|
.7418
|
372.77
|
1,745.3
|
502.05
|
1.0012
|
502.66
|
|
1984
|
3.5
|
1,745.3
|
502.05
|
280.3
|
511.51
|
262.7
|
.8691
|
451.62
|
1,762.8
|
518.28
|
1.0014
|
519.01
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
1,762.8
|
518.28
|
281.1
|
530.28
|
241.5
|
.9015
|
481.70
|
1,802.4
|
533.29
|
1.0014
|
534.06
|
|
1986
|
1.3
|
1,802.4
|
533.29
|
284.4
|
535.14
|
240.9
|
.9961
|
538.10
|
1,845.8
|
538.26
|
1.0017
|
539.16
|
|
1987
|
4.2
|
1,845.8
|
538.26
|
279.0
|
570.48
|
247.5
|
.9989
|
560.28
|
1,877.3
|
561.18
|
1.0023
|
562.49
|
|
1988
|
4.0
|
1,877.3
|
561.18
|
273.2
|
605.51
|
249.7
|
1.0029
|
585.33
|
1,900.9
|
585.33
|
1.0028
|
586.97
|
|
1989
|
4.7
|
1,900.9
|
585.33
|
278.8
|
637.09
|
244.2
|
.9971
|
611.09
|
1,935.5
|
615.38
|
1.0028
|
617.09
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
1,935.5
|
615.38
|
303.6
|
672.43
|
241.2
|
1.0061
|
652.56
|
1,997.9
|
650.89
|
1.0024
|
652.42
|
|
1991
|
3.7
|
1,997.9
|
650.89
|
343.4
|
691.46
|
242.0
|
1.0089
|
680.99
|
2,099.3
|
676.14
|
1.0021
|
677.54
|
|
1992
|
3.0
|
2,099.3
|
676.14
|
402.7
|
697.79
|
249.9
|
1.0034
|
698.82
|
2,252.1
|
695.36
|
1.0022
|
696.88
|
|
1993
|
2.6
|
2,252.1
|
695.36
|
394.4
|
718.81
|
255.2
|
1.0105
|
720.90
|
2,391.3
|
712.95
|
1.0026
|
714.80
|
|
1994
|
2.8
|
2,391.3
|
712.95
|
381.4
|
753.07
|
260.4
|
1.0085
|
739.11
|
2,512.3
|
735.34
|
1.0031
|
737.63
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
2,512.3
|
735.34
|
378.5
|
787.79
|
273.7
|
1.0019
|
755.87
|
2,617.1
|
758.87
|
1.0037
|
761.64
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
2,617.1
|
758.87
|
355.5
|
812.64
|
268.4
|
1.0078
|
786.97
|
2,704.2
|
784.20
|
1.0045
|
787.73
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
2,704.2
|
784.20
|
326.8
|
838.22
|
305.4
|
.9882
|
791.25
|
2,725.6
|
806.09
|
1.0040
|
809.31
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
2,725.6
|
806.09
|
333.0
|
853.33
|
257.1
|
1.0192
|
832.21
|
2,801.6
|
819.49
|
1.0040
|
822.76
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
2,801.6
|
819.49
|
337.5
|
892.97
|
271.6
|
1.0382
|
872.02
|
2,867.5
|
842.87
|
1.0043
|
846.48
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
2,867.5
|
842.87
|
338.8
|
950.37
|
282.6
|
1.0475
|
913.77
|
2,923.7
|
878.22
|
1.0051
|
882.66
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
2,923.7
|
878.22
|
374.4
|
986.43
|
276.9
|
1.0333
|
931.09
|
3,021.1
|
909.15
|
1.0050
|
913.72
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
3,021.1
|
909.15
|
406.3
|
1,019.94
|
286.5
|
1.0564
|
973.86
|
3,141.0
|
931.21
|
1.0047
|
935.60
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
3,141.0
|
931.21
|
421.6
|
1,062.37
|
268.7
|
1.0485
|
996.86
|
3,293.8
|
961.36
|
1.0047
|
965.91
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
3,293.8
|
961.36
|
428.7
|
1,097.03
|
274.3
|
1.0634
|
1,049.95
|
3,448.2
|
997.43
|
1.0048
|
1,002.24
|
|
2005-I
|
...
|
3,448.2
|
997.43
|
107.3
|
1,094.57
|
73.3
|
1.1330
|
1,130.09
|
3,482.3
|
997.63
|
1.0038
|
1,001.43
|
|
2005-II
|
...
|
3,482.3
|
997.63
|
107.3
|
1,093.47
|
71.8
|
1.0550
|
1,052.50
|
3,517.8
|
999.44
|
1.0039
|
1,003.30
|
|
2005-III
|
...
|
3,517.8
|
999.44
|
107.3
|
1,092.37
|
71.8
|
1.0530
|
1,052.41
|
3,553.3
|
1,001.17
|
1.0041
|
1,005.27
|
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
3,553.3
|
1,001.17
|
100.6
|
1,113.09
|
70.4
|
.9320
|
951.77
|
3,583.5
|
1,025.15
|
1.0024
|
1,027.66
|
|
2006-I
|
...
|
3,583.5
|
1,025.15
|
105.6
|
1,115.20
|
76.2
|
1.1330
|
1,161.50
|
3,612.9
|
1,024.91
|
1.0024
|
1,027.40
|
|
2006-II
|
...
|
3,612.9
|
1,024.91
|
105.6
|
1,117.30
|
74.8
|
1.0550
|
1,081.28
|
3,643.7
|
1,026.43
|
1.0025
|
1,028.98
|
|
2006-III
|
...
|
3,643.7
|
1,026.43
|
105.6
|
1,119.40
|
74.8
|
1.0530
|
1,080.83
|
3,674.5
|
1,027.99
|
1.0027
|
1,030.78
|
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
3,674.5
|
1,027.99
|
98.9
|
1,146.18
|
73.3
|
.9320
|
979.18
|
3,700.2
|
1,054.59
|
1.0022
|
1,056.90
|
|
2007-I
|
...
|
3,700.2
|
1,054.59
|
106.5
|
1,149.37
|
79.7
|
1.1330
|
1,194.85
|
3,727.0
|
1,054.30
|
1.0022
|
1,056.59
|
|
2007-II
|
...
|
3,727.0
|
1,054.30
|
106.5
|
1,152.56
|
78.1
|
1.0550
|
1,112.29
|
3,755.4
|
1,055.88
|
1.0022
|
1,058.23
|
|
2007-III
|
...
|
3,755.4
|
1,055.88
|
106.5
|
1,155.75
|
78.1
|
1.0530
|
1,111.84
|
3,783.7
|
1,057.53
|
1.0024
|
1,060.12
|
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
3,783.7
|
1,057.53
|
99.8
|
1,190.23
|
76.6
|
.9320
|
1,012.25
|
3,806.9
|
1,090.32
|
1.0016
|
1,092.08
|
|
2008-I
|
...
|
3,806.9
|
1,090.32
|
110.3
|
1,194.65
|
84.4
|
1.1330
|
1,235.33
|
3,832.8
|
1,090.13
|
1.0016
|
1,091.87
|
|
2008-II
|
...
|
3,832.8
|
1,090.13
|
110.3
|
1,199.06
|
82.7
|
1.0550
|
1,150.08
|
3,860.4
|
1,091.95
|
1.0016
|
1,093.76
|
|
2008-III
|
...
|
3,860.4
|
1,091.95
|
110.3
|
1,203.48
|
82.7
|
1.0530
|
1,149.83
|
3,887.9
|
1,093.89
|
1.0019
|
1,095.93
|
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
3,887.9
|
1,093.89
|
103.4
|
1,241.72
|
81.1
|
.9320
|
1,048.06
|
3,910.2
|
1,129.22
|
1.0007
|
1,130.05
|
|
2009-I
|
...
|
3,910.2
|
1,129.22
|
115.8
|
1,245.60
|
94.5
|
1.1330
|
1,279.40
|
3,931.5
|
1,129.04
|
1.0007
|
1,129.85
|
|
2009-II
|
...
|
3,931.5
|
1,129.04
|
115.8
|
1,249.49
|
92.6
|
1.0550
|
1,191.13
|
3,954.6
|
1,131.11
|
1.0008
|
1,131.99
|
|
2009-III
|
...
|
3,954.6
|
1,131.11
|
115.8
|
1,253.37
|
92.6
|
1.0530
|
1,191.06
|
3,977.8
|
1,133.27
|
1.0010
|
1,134.40
|
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
3,977.8
|
1,133.27
|
108.5
|
1,292.45
|
90.8
|
.9320
|
1,085.80
|
3,995.5
|
1,170.28
|
.9989
|
1,168.94
|
|
2010-I
|
...
|
3,995.5
|
1,170.28
|
116.2
|
1,298.89
|
96.3
|
1.1330
|
1,325.92
|
4,015.4
|
1,170.27
|
.9988
|
1,168.91
|
|
2010-II
|
...
|
4,015.4
|
1,170.27
|
116.2
|
1,305.33
|
94.4
|
1.0550
|
1,234.63
|
4,037.2
|
1,172.65
|
.9989
|
1,171.36
|
|
2010-III
|
...
|
4,037.2
|
1,172.65
|
116.2
|
1,311.77
|
94.4
|
1.0530
|
1,234.80
|
4,059.0
|
1,175.18
|
.9991
|
1,174.15
|
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
4,059.0
|
1,175.18
|
108.8
|
1,355.12
|
92.5
|
.9320
|
1,125.96
|
4,075.4
|
1,213.90
|
.9997
|
1,213.47
|
|
2011-I
|
...
|
4,075.4
|
1,213.90
|
114.8
|
1,361.64
|
95.9
|
1.1330
|
1,375.35
|
4,094.3
|
1,214.26
|
.9996
|
1,213.81
|
|
2011-II
|
...
|
4,094.3
|
1,214.26
|
114.8
|
1,368.16
|
94.0
|
1.0550
|
1,281.05
|
4,115.2
|
1,217.03
|
.9997
|
1,216.65
|
|
2011-III
|
...
|
4,115.2
|
1,217.03
|
114.8
|
1,374.68
|
94.0
|
1.0530
|
1,281.53
|
4,136.0
|
1,219.94
|
.9999
|
1,219.82
|
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
4,136.0
|
1,219.94
|
107.6
|
1,419.88
|
92.1
|
.9320
|
1,168.84
|
4,151.5
|
1,260.30
|
1.0002
|
1,260.57
|
|
2012-I
|
...
|
4,151.5
|
1,260.30
|
116.5
|
1,424.71
|
103.0
|
1.1330
|
1,427.92
|
4,165.0
|
1,260.76
|
1.0002
|
1,261.00
|
|
2012-II
|
...
|
4,165.0
|
1,260.76
|
116.5
|
1,429.53
|
101.0
|
1.0550
|
1,330.10
|
4,180.6
|
1,263.79
|
1.0002
|
1,264.11
|
|
2012-III
|
...
|
4,180.6
|
1,263.79
|
116.5
|
1,434.36
|
101.0
|
1.0530
|
1,330.77
|
4,196.2
|
1,266.92
|
1.0005
|
1,267.51
|
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
4,196.2
|
1,266.92
|
109.2
|
1,479.48
|
98.9
|
.9320
|
1,213.84
|
4,206.5
|
1,309.09
|
1.0005
|
1,309.73
|
|
2013-I
|
...
|
4,206.5
|
1,309.09
|
118.1
|
1,484.12
|
107.9
|
1.1330
|
1,483.19
|
4,216.6
|
1,309.53
|
1.0005
|
1,310.14
|
|
2013-II
|
...
|
4,216.6
|
1,309.53
|
118.1
|
1,488.75
|
105.8
|
1.0550
|
1,381.55
|
4,228.8
|
1,312.73
|
1.0005
|
1,313.43
|
|
2013-III
|
...
|
4,228.8
|
1,312.73
|
118.1
|
1,493.39
|
105.8
|
1.0530
|
1,382.30
|
4,241.0
|
1,316.02
|
1.0007
|
1,317.01
|
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
4,241.0
|
1,316.02
|
110.6
|
1,539.96
|
103.7
|
.9320
|
1,260.89
|
4,247.9
|
1,360.01
|
1.0008
|
1,361.07
|
|
2014-I
|
...
|
4,247.9
|
1,360.01
|
119.6
|
1,544.56
|
108.3
|
1.1330
|
1,540.89
|
4,259.3
|
1,360.59
|
1.0008
|
1,361.62
|
|
2014-II
|
...
|
4,259.3
|
1,360.59
|
119.6
|
1,549.15
|
106.1
|
1.0550
|
1,435.42
|
4,272.8
|
1,364.01
|
1.0008
|
1,365.13
|
|
2014-III
|
...
|
4,272.8
|
1,364.01
|
119.6
|
1,553.75
|
106.1
|
1.0530
|
1,436.30
|
4,286.2
|
1,367.51
|
1.0010
|
1,368.94
|
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
4,286.2
|
1,367.51
|
112.1
|
1,601.98
|
104.0
|
.9320
|
1,310.23
|
4,294.3
|
1,413.26
|
1.0011
|
1,414.75
|
| 1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.