Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
 |
 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
494.2
|
$95.88
|
108.5
|
$113.48
|
123.1
|
1.0159
|
$111.33
|
479.6
|
$110.02
|
1.0041
|
$110.48
|
|
1981
|
11.2
|
479.6
|
110.02
|
95.6
|
113.59
|
127.9
|
.9960
|
121.86
|
447.3
|
120.77
|
1.0070
|
121.62
|
|
1982
|
7.4
|
447.3
|
120.77
|
77.8
|
120.09
|
136.8
|
.9936
|
128.87
|
388.3
|
128.21
|
1.0080
|
129.24
|
|
1983
|
3.5
|
388.3
|
128.21
|
80.1
|
123.71
|
139.2
|
1.0608
|
140.77
|
329.2
|
127.10
|
1.0163
|
129.17
|
|
1984
|
3.5
|
329.2
|
127.10
|
81.8
|
124.17
|
85.7
|
1.0356
|
136.23
|
325.4
|
128.46
|
1.0192
|
130.92
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
325.4
|
128.46
|
83.5
|
126.69
|
80.8
|
1.0428
|
138.10
|
328.1
|
129.59
|
1.0231
|
132.58
|
|
1986
|
1.3
|
328.1
|
129.59
|
82.4
|
127.01
|
86.1
|
1.0627
|
139.51
|
324.4
|
128.01
|
1.0254
|
131.26
|
|
1987
|
4.2
|
324.4
|
128.01
|
76.5
|
133.47
|
84.8
|
1.0805
|
144.12
|
316.0
|
130.84
|
1.0301
|
134.77
|
|
1988
|
4.0
|
316.0
|
130.84
|
73.4
|
136.79
|
82.6
|
1.0760
|
146.42
|
306.9
|
133.95
|
1.0335
|
138.45
|
|
1989
|
4.7
|
306.9
|
133.95
|
68.7
|
143.76
|
77.3
|
1.0757
|
150.87
|
298.3
|
138.90
|
1.0382
|
144.20
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
298.3
|
138.90
|
69.2
|
148.76
|
73.9
|
1.0982
|
160.77
|
293.6
|
144.16
|
1.0401
|
149.94
|
|
1991
|
3.7
|
293.6
|
144.16
|
72.4
|
151.75
|
71.9
|
1.1107
|
166.04
|
294.1
|
146.99
|
1.0425
|
153.23
|
|
1992
|
3.0
|
294.1
|
146.99
|
77.9
|
151.64
|
71.4
|
1.1155
|
168.89
|
300.6
|
148.18
|
1.0459
|
154.98
|
|
1993
|
2.6
|
300.6
|
148.18
|
74.5
|
156.53
|
71.7
|
1.1276
|
171.43
|
303.4
|
148.90
|
1.0481
|
156.07
|
|
1994
|
2.8
|
303.4
|
148.90
|
69.4
|
164.94
|
70.1
|
1.1169
|
170.96
|
302.7
|
151.71
|
1.0521
|
159.61
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
302.7
|
151.71
|
63.0
|
175.12
|
69.8
|
1.1276
|
175.52
|
295.9
|
155.17
|
1.0541
|
163.56
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
295.9
|
155.17
|
56.8
|
183.05
|
67.0
|
1.1095
|
177.15
|
285.8
|
160.56
|
1.0674
|
171.39
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
285.8
|
160.56
|
50.5
|
192.07
|
66.6
|
1.1107
|
182.08
|
269.7
|
164.88
|
1.0722
|
176.78
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
269.7
|
164.88
|
47.4
|
198.82
|
61.0
|
1.1262
|
188.10
|
256.0
|
167.99
|
1.0827
|
181.88
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
256.0
|
167.99
|
46.0
|
207.17
|
59.7
|
1.1403
|
196.34
|
242.3
|
172.99
|
1.0931
|
189.09
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
242.3
|
172.99
|
43.7
|
219.55
|
57.3
|
1.1416
|
204.40
|
228.7
|
180.62
|
1.0985
|
198.42
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
228.7
|
180.62
|
42.7
|
228.94
|
53.6
|
1.1445
|
212.09
|
217.8
|
187.89
|
1.1022
|
207.09
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
217.8
|
187.89
|
45.6
|
227.35
|
54.2
|
1.1645
|
221.86
|
209.2
|
192.80
|
1.1019
|
212.44
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
209.2
|
192.80
|
47.2
|
236.53
|
50.0
|
1.1521
|
226.78
|
206.4
|
200.87
|
1.1021
|
221.37
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
206.4
|
200.87
|
47.6
|
243.46
|
48.2
|
1.0699
|
220.72
|
205.7
|
214.44
|
1.0805
|
231.71
|
|
2005-I
|
...
|
205.7
|
214.44
|
12.7
|
242.99
|
12.0
|
1.1431
|
245.13
|
206.4
|
214.41
|
1.0883
|
233.34
|
|
2005-II
|
...
|
206.4
|
214.41
|
12.7
|
242.99
|
12.1
|
1.0720
|
229.84
|
206.9
|
215.26
|
1.0885
|
234.31
|
|
2005-III
|
...
|
206.9
|
215.26
|
12.7
|
243.00
|
12.2
|
1.0769
|
231.82
|
207.4
|
215.98
|
1.0901
|
235.45
|
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
207.4
|
215.98
|
11.9
|
247.86
|
12.2
|
1.1129
|
245.18
|
207.1
|
220.43
|
1.0907
|
240.41
|
|
2006-I
|
...
|
207.1
|
220.43
|
13.0
|
250.74
|
12.3
|
1.1403
|
251.35
|
207.8
|
220.49
|
1.0870
|
239.68
|
|
2006-II
|
...
|
207.8
|
220.49
|
13.0
|
251.21
|
12.4
|
1.0733
|
236.66
|
208.4
|
221.44
|
1.0871
|
240.74
|
|
2006-III
|
...
|
208.4
|
221.44
|
13.0
|
251.68
|
12.5
|
1.0792
|
238.99
|
208.9
|
222.27
|
1.0887
|
241.98
|
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
208.9
|
222.27
|
12.2
|
257.67
|
12.5
|
1.1112
|
252.42
|
208.5
|
227.44
|
1.0892
|
247.73
|
|
2007-I
|
...
|
208.5
|
227.44
|
13.7
|
260.20
|
12.6
|
1.1379
|
258.81
|
209.6
|
227.69
|
1.0858
|
247.24
|
|
2007-II
|
...
|
209.6
|
227.69
|
13.7
|
260.92
|
12.7
|
1.0748
|
244.73
|
210.6
|
228.83
|
1.0858
|
248.47
|
|
2007-III
|
...
|
210.6
|
228.83
|
13.7
|
261.64
|
12.8
|
1.0817
|
247.53
|
211.5
|
229.81
|
1.0872
|
249.85
|
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
211.5
|
229.81
|
12.8
|
269.41
|
12.9
|
1.1097
|
261.90
|
211.4
|
236.49
|
1.0877
|
257.23
|
|
2008-I
|
...
|
211.4
|
236.49
|
14.6
|
272.90
|
13.0
|
1.1359
|
268.61
|
213.1
|
237.03
|
1.0846
|
257.08
|
|
2008-II
|
...
|
213.1
|
237.03
|
14.6
|
273.91
|
13.1
|
1.0763
|
255.11
|
214.6
|
238.44
|
1.0845
|
258.59
|
|
2008-III
|
...
|
214.6
|
238.44
|
14.6
|
274.93
|
13.3
|
1.0842
|
258.52
|
216.0
|
239.68
|
1.0856
|
260.21
|
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
216.0
|
239.68
|
13.7
|
283.68
|
13.4
|
1.1080
|
273.01
|
216.4
|
247.13
|
1.0861
|
268.41
|
|
2009-I
|
...
|
216.4
|
247.13
|
16.0
|
286.27
|
13.5
|
1.1338
|
280.21
|
218.9
|
247.96
|
1.0832
|
268.58
|
|
2009-II
|
...
|
218.9
|
247.96
|
16.0
|
287.17
|
13.7
|
1.0775
|
267.18
|
221.2
|
249.60
|
1.0829
|
270.30
|
|
2009-III
|
...
|
221.2
|
249.60
|
16.0
|
288.07
|
13.9
|
1.0862
|
271.12
|
223.3
|
251.02
|
1.0839
|
272.09
|
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
223.3
|
251.02
|
15.0
|
297.07
|
14.0
|
1.1061
|
285.43
|
224.2
|
258.96
|
1.0843
|
280.80
|
|
2010-I
|
...
|
224.2
|
258.96
|
15.9
|
299.28
|
14.2
|
1.1309
|
292.87
|
226.0
|
259.67
|
1.0817
|
280.89
|
|
2010-II
|
...
|
226.0
|
259.67
|
15.9
|
300.76
|
14.3
|
1.0778
|
279.88
|
227.6
|
261.28
|
1.0815
|
282.56
|
|
2010-III
|
...
|
227.6
|
261.28
|
15.9
|
302.24
|
14.5
|
1.0873
|
284.09
|
229.1
|
262.69
|
1.0824
|
284.34
|
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
229.1
|
262.69
|
14.9
|
312.23
|
14.6
|
1.1044
|
298.24
|
229.4
|
271.01
|
1.0829
|
293.48
|
|
2011-I
|
...
|
229.4
|
271.01
|
15.8
|
313.63
|
14.6
|
1.1288
|
305.92
|
230.6
|
271.71
|
1.0805
|
293.60
|
|
2011-II
|
...
|
230.6
|
271.71
|
15.8
|
315.13
|
14.7
|
1.0779
|
292.88
|
231.6
|
273.32
|
1.0803
|
295.27
|
|
2011-III
|
...
|
231.6
|
273.32
|
15.8
|
316.63
|
14.8
|
1.0879
|
297.36
|
232.5
|
274.73
|
1.0813
|
297.06
|
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
232.5
|
274.73
|
14.8
|
327.07
|
14.9
|
1.1031
|
311.53
|
232.4
|
283.41
|
1.0818
|
306.59
|
|
2012-I
|
...
|
232.4
|
283.41
|
16.0
|
328.06
|
14.9
|
1.1275
|
319.55
|
233.5
|
284.16
|
1.0796
|
306.78
|
|
2012-II
|
...
|
233.5
|
284.16
|
16.0
|
329.18
|
15.0
|
1.0781
|
306.37
|
234.5
|
285.82
|
1.0793
|
308.50
|
|
2012-III
|
...
|
234.5
|
285.82
|
16.0
|
330.31
|
15.1
|
1.0884
|
311.09
|
235.5
|
287.22
|
1.0803
|
310.29
|
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
235.5
|
287.22
|
15.0
|
340.69
|
15.1
|
1.1022
|
325.45
|
235.3
|
296.24
|
1.0808
|
320.18
|
|
2013-I
|
...
|
235.3
|
296.24
|
16.2
|
342.11
|
15.2
|
1.1264
|
333.69
|
236.3
|
296.97
|
1.0787
|
320.34
|
|
2013-II
|
...
|
236.3
|
296.97
|
16.2
|
343.19
|
15.3
|
1.0782
|
320.20
|
237.2
|
298.63
|
1.0784
|
322.05
|
|
2013-III
|
...
|
237.2
|
298.63
|
16.2
|
344.27
|
15.3
|
1.0888
|
325.15
|
238.1
|
300.02
|
1.0794
|
323.83
|
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
238.1
|
300.02
|
15.2
|
355.02
|
15.4
|
1.1014
|
339.69
|
237.8
|
309.38
|
1.0799
|
334.10
|
|
2014-I
|
...
|
237.8
|
309.38
|
16.4
|
355.98
|
15.4
|
1.1255
|
348.20
|
238.8
|
310.08
|
1.0778
|
334.21
|
|
2014-II
|
...
|
238.8
|
310.08
|
16.4
|
357.05
|
15.5
|
1.0781
|
334.30
|
239.7
|
311.73
|
1.0776
|
335.91
|
|
2014-III
|
...
|
239.7
|
311.73
|
16.4
|
358.13
|
15.6
|
1.0890
|
339.46
|
240.6
|
313.10
|
1.0785
|
337.68
|
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
240.6
|
313.10
|
15.4
|
369.24
|
15.6
|
1.1007
|
354.28
|
240.4
|
322.81
|
1.0790
|
348.32
|
| 1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.