2007 OASDI Trustees Report

Contents Previous Next List of Tables List of Figures Index

VI. APPENDICES
F. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

3. Estimates in Dollars

This section presents long-range projections in dollars of the operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds and in some cases the HI Trust Fund. Meaningful comparison of current dollar values over long periods of time can be difficult because of the effect of inflation. Some means of removing inflation is thus generally desirable. Several economic series or indices are provided to allow current dollars to be adjusted for changes in prices, wages, and certain other aspects of economic growth during the projection period.

The selection of a particular index for adjustment of current dollars depends upon the analyst's decision as to which index provides the most useful standard for adjusting dollar amounts, over time, to create values that are appropriately comparable. Table VI.F6 presents five such indices for adjustment. Adjustment of any series of values is accomplished by dividing the value for each year by the corresponding index values for the year. This adjustment removes the inflation in the index from the series of values.

One of the most common forms of standardization is based on some measure of change in the prices of consumer goods. One such price index is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W, hereafter referred to as CPI), which is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. This is the index used to determine annual increases in OASDI monthly benefits payable after the year of initial eligibility. The CPI is assumed to increase ultimately at annual rates of 1.8, 2.8, and 3.8 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions, respectively. Constant-dollar values (those calculated by dividing by the adjusted CPI in table VI.F6) indicate the relative purchasing power of the values over time. Constant-dollar values are provided in table VI.F7.

Another type of standardization combines the effects of price inflation and real-wage growth. The wage index presented here is the national average wage index, as defined in section 215(i)(1)(G) of the Social Security Act. This index is used to make annual adjustments to many earnings-related quantities embodied in the Social Security Act, such as the contribution and benefit base. The average annual wage is assumed to increase ultimately by 3.4, 3.9, and 4.4 percent under the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively. Wage-indexed values indicate the level of a series relative to the standard-of-living of workers over time.

The taxable payroll index adjusts for the effects of changes in the number of workers and changes in the proportion of earnings that are taxable, as well as for the effects of price inflation and real-wage growth. The OASDI taxable payroll consists of all earnings subject to OASDI taxation, adjusted for the lower effective tax rate on multiple-employer excess wages. Values adjusted by dividing by the taxable payroll indicate the percentage of payroll that each value represents, and thus the extent to which the series of values increases or decreases as a percent of payroll over time.

The GDP index adjusts for the growth in the aggregate amount of goods and services produced in the United States. Values adjusted by GDP (see appendix VI.F2) indicate their relative share of the total output of the economy. No explicit assumptions are made about growth in taxable payroll or GDP. These series are computed reflecting the other more basic demographic and economic assumptions, as discussed in sections V.A and V.B, respectively.

Discounting at the rate of interest is another way of adjusting current dollars. The series of interest-rate factors included here is based on the average of the assumed annual interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds for each year. This series is slightly different from the interest rates used to create summarized values elsewhere in this report, where the actual yield on currently-held trust fund assets is used for each year. Ultimate nominal interest rates, which, in practice, are compounded semiannually, are assumed to be approximately 5.4, 5.7, and 5.9 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively.

Table VI.F6.-Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2006-85 

[GDP and taxable payroll in billions]

Calendar year
Adjusted
CPI 1
Average
wage index 2
Taxable
payroll 3
Gross
domestic
product
Compound
interest-rate
factor 4
Intermediate:
 
2006
98.14
$38,726.37
$5,038
$13,245
0.9556
 
2007
100.00
40,461.69
5,301
13,858
1.0000
 
2008
102.37
42,286.35
5,597
14,550
1.0525
 
2009
105.11
44,100.37
5,896
15,302
1.1121
 
2010
108.05
45,946.76
6,198
16,083
1.1766
 
2011
111.08
47,830.33
6,507
16,900
1.2453
 
2012
114.19
49,809.01
6,816
17,721
1.3179
 
2013
117.39
51,785.43
7,121
18,550
1.3948
 
2014
120.67
53,759.30
7,438
19,398
1.4761
 
2015
124.05
55,820.55
7,771
20,304
1.5616
 
2016
127.52
57,963.56
8,115
21,253
1.6520
 
 
2020
142.42
67,513.90
9,633
25,415
2.0685
 
2025
163.50
81,630.57
11,866
31,596
2.7396
 
2030
187.71
98,753.66
14,591
39,216
3.6285
 
2035
215.51
119,654.40
17,986
48,782
4.8059
 
2040
247.41
145,147.30
22,196
60,729
6.3653
 
2045
284.05
176,008.57
27,385
75,592
8.4306
 
2050
326.10
213,251.30
33,696
93,857
11.1661
 
2055
374.39
258,202.86
41,398
116,365
14.7891
 
2060
429.82
312,601.72
50,850
144,256
19.5878
 
2065
493.46
378,580.63
62,488
178,920
25.9435
 
2070
566.52
458,626.89
76,771
221,875
34.3614
 
2075
650.41
555,604.14
94,320
275,164
45.5106
 
2080
746.71
672,984.32
115,787
340,992
60.2775
 
2085
857.27
815,650.39
142,183
422,371
79.8358
Low Cost:
 
2006
98.31
38,753.43
5,044
13,260
.9549
 
2007
100.00
40,590.02
5,335
13,951
1.0000
 
2008
101.93
42,334.80
5,641
14,643
1.0501
 
2009
103.77
43,947.36
5,939
15,350
1.1030
 
2010
105.63
45,547.60
6,234
16,074
1.1605
 
2011
107.53
47,151.60
6,530
16,825
1.2222
 
2012
109.47
48,896.81
6,829
17,601
1.2888
 
2013
111.45
50,616.69
7,130
18,386
1.3597
 
2014
113.45
52,331.64
7,444
19,190
1.4352
 
2015
115.49
54,077.95
7,759
20,007
1.5134
 
2016
117.57
55,862.08
8,082
20,851
1.5959
 
 
2020
126.27
63,813.85
9,452
24,481
1.9744
 
2025
138.05
75,302.48
11,421
29,729
2.5761
 
2030
150.93
88,824.63
13,792
36,082
3.3612
 
2035
165.01
104,912.06
16,739
43,996
4.3857
 
2040
180.41
124,119.79
20,414
53,887
5.7224
 
2045
197.24
146,853.21
24,957
66,154
7.4664
 
2050
215.64
173,656.50
30,506
81,203
9.7421
 
2055
235.76
205,382.69
37,305
99,714
12.7113
 
2060
257.76
242,925.34
45,655
122,541
16.5854
 
2065
281.81
287,418.38
55,985
150,897
21.6403
 
2070
308.10
340,191.80
68,758
186,104
28.2359
 
2075
336.84
402,703.66
84,489
229,655
36.8417
 
2080
368.27
476,574.03
103,744
283,213
48.0703
 
2085
402.63
564,262.93
127,361
348,928
62.7212
High Cost:
 
2006
97.47
$38,702.80
$5,033
$13,232
0.9599
 
2007
100.00
39,852.18
5,197
13,548
1.0000
 
2008
102.81
41,860.51
5,475
14,238
1.0564
 
2009
105.79
43,722.09
5,756
15,015
1.1193
 
2010
110.44
45,294.95
6,010
15,646
1.1879
 
2011
116.74
48,246.05
6,384
16,747
1.2841
 
2012
123.23
51,759.46
6,855
18,215
1.3986
 
2013
129.00
54,564.68
7,273
19,369
1.5008
 
2014
134.08
56,969.23
7,663
20,375
1.5949
 
2015
139.17
59,388.31
8,047
21,429
1.6907
 
2016
144.46
61,920.82
8,432
22,540
1.7915
 
 
2020
167.70
73,537.32
10,179
27,505
2.2600
 
2025
202.08
91,138.23
12,820
35,109
3.0215
 
2030
243.50
113,106.23
16,110
44,722
4.0395
 
2035
293.42
140,587.61
20,225
56,911
5.4007
 
2040
353.57
174,866.42
25,327
72,223
7.2204
 
2045
426.06
217,292.63
31,600
91,338
9.6533
 
2050
513.40
269,678.53
39,186
114,856
12.9060
 
2055
618.65
334,238.19
48,452
144,039
17.2547
 
2060
745.47
414,085.65
59,744
180,174
23.0687
 
2065
898.29
513,052.61
73,576
225,107
30.8418
 
2070
1,082.44
635,788.72
90,377
280,547
41.2339
 
2075
1,304.33
787,898.07
110,939
349,413
55.1277
 
2080
1,571.72
976,353.82
135,919
434,368
73.7031
 
2085
1,893.92
1,211,072.06
166,726
540,196
98.5374

1The adjusted CPI is the CPI-W indexed to calendar year 2007.

2The average wage index is used to automatically adjust the contribution and benefit base and other wage-indexed program amounts. (See "Average wage index" in the glossary.)

3Taxable payroll consists of total earnings subject to OASDI contribution rates, adjusted to include deemed wages based on military service through calendar year 2001 and to reflect the lower effective contribution rates (compared to the combined employee-employer rate) which apply to multiple-employer "excess wages."

4The compound interest-rate factor is based on the average of the assumed annual interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds in the 12 months of the year, under each alternative.

Table VI.F7 shows estimated operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in constant 2007 dollars (i.e., adjusted by the CPI indexing series as discussed above). Items included in the table are: income excluding interest, interest income, total income, total cost, and assets at the end of the year. Income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions, income from taxation of benefits, and miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of benefit payments, administrative expenses, net transfers from the OASI and DI Trust Funds to the Railroad Retirement program under the financial-interchange provisions, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. These estimates are based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions.

Table VI.F7.-Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
in Constant 2007 Dollars,1 Calendar Years 2007-85 

[In billions]

Calendar year
Income
excluding
interest
Interest
income
Total
income
Cost
Assets at
end of year
Intermediate:
 
2007
$673.7
$109.2
$782.8
$594.3
$2,236.6
 
2008
693.1
115.2
808.3
603.0
2,390.0
 
2009
715.0
123.7
838.7
620.7
2,545.7
 
2010
732.3
133.0
865.3
642.5
2,699.3
 
2011
750.0
142.7
892.7
663.9
2,854.5
 
2012
766.1
152.0
918.1
689.8
3,005.0
 
2013
780.1
161.1
941.2
718.0
3,146.5
 
2014
793.6
169.6
963.2
747.7
3,276.3
 
2015
807.8
177.3
985.0
778.6
3,393.5
 
2016
822.2
184.2
1,006.5
810.7
3,496.9
 
2020
879.4
206.4
1,085.8
947.2
3,752.1
 
2025
949.9
204.4
1,154.3
1,120.8
3,634.2
 
2030
1,023.2
169.9
1,193.1
1,289.7
2,951.7
 
2035
1,102.2
105.3
1,207.5
1,433.1
1,734.9
 
20402
1,186.1
16.3
1,202.5
1,549.5
89.6
Low Cost:
 
2007
676.3
109.5
785.8
592.6
2,241.3
 
2008
703.3
116.3
819.6
601.3
2,417.1
 
2009
729.1
124.6
853.7
619.9
2,608.2
 
2010
752.8
133.8
886.6
640.8
2,807.8
 
2011
776.6
144.3
920.8
661.0
3,018.0
 
2012
799.5
155.5
955.0
685.5
3,234.2
 
2013
821.1
167.4
988.5
712.5
3,452.9
 
2014
842.7
179.9
1,022.6
741.4
3,673.1
 
2015
864.0
191.8
1,055.8
771.6
3,892.4
 
2016
885.4
203.6
1,089.0
803.3
4,109.1
 
2020
969.1
253.3
1,222.4
948.7
4,915.8
 
2025
1,076.9
299.1
1,376.0
1,140.1
5,716.4
 
2030
1,194.4
328.0
1,522.3
1,330.5
6,233.4
 
2035
1,328.3
345.8
1,674.1
1,501.1
6,556.2
 
2040
1,481.4
362.6
1,844.0
1,649.8
6,877.9
 
2045
1,655.1
387.1
2,042.2
1,802.9
7,357.3
 
2050
1,849.5
421.6
2,271.2
1,982.7
8,027.0
 
2055
2,068.5
465.6
2,534.1
2,200.0
8,870.1
 
2060
2,315.6
517.2
2,832.8
2,451.1
9,858.4
 
2065
2,596.6
579.1
3,175.7
2,725.1
11,050.5
 
2070
2,915.4
656.9
3,572.3
3,025.3
12,554.2
 
2075
3,275.2
755.9
4,031.1
3,365.5
14,465.0
 
2080
3,678.1
877.5
4,555.6
3,768.1
16,802.3
 
2085
4,131.1
1,019.3
5,150.4
4,243.7
19,517.2
High Cost:
 
2007
665.7
107.8
773.5
597.8
2,223.8
 
2008
670.8
112.5
783.3
610.6
2,335.5
 
2009
694.7
120.4
815.0
631.9
2,452.9
 
2010
696.1
126.5
822.6
648.3
2,523.9
 
2011
700.9
134.4
835.3
664.5
2,558.6
 
2012
715.4
148.9
864.3
693.2
2,595.1
 
2013
726.9
157.1
884.0
727.2
2,635.8
 
2014
737.9
160.7
898.6
762.0
2,672.5
 
2015
748.2
161.9
910.1
793.6
2,691.2
 
2016
757.2
161.9
919.1
826.1
2,685.8
 
2020
793.1
143.3
936.4
949.9
2,418.5
 
2025 2
835.5
93.3
928.7
1,099.9
1,502.3

1The adjustment from current to constant dollars is by the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F6.

2Estimates for later years are not shown because the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to become exhausted in 2041 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2030 under the high cost assumptions.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Figure VI.F1 provides a comparison of annual cost with total annual income (including interest) and annual income excluding interest, for the OASDI program under intermediate assumptions. All values are expressed in constant dollars, as shown in table VI.F7. The difference between the income values for each year is equal to the trust fund interest earnings. Thus the figure illustrates the fact that, under intermediate assumptions, combined OASDI cost will be payable from (1) current tax income alone through 2016, (2) current tax income plus amounts from the trust funds that are less than annual interest income for years 2017 through 2026, and (3) current tax income plus amounts from the trust funds that are greater than annual interest income for years 2027 through 2040, i.e., through the year preceding the year of trust fund exhaustion.

Figure VI.F1.-Estimated OASDI Income and Cost in Constant Dollars,
Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[In billions]

[D]

Table VI.F8 shows estimated operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in current dollars-that is in dollars unadjusted for price inflation. Items included in the table are: income excluding interest, interest income, total income, total cost, and assets at the end of the year. These estimates, based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of demographic and economic assumptions, are presented to facilitate independent analysis.

Table VI.F8.-Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2007-85 

[In billions]

Calendar year
Income
excluding
interest
Interest
income
Total
income
Cost
Assets at
end of year
Intermediate:
 
2007
$673.7
$109.2
$782.8
$594.3
$2,236.6
 
2008
709.5
117.9
827.5
617.3
2,446.8
 
2009
751.6
130.0
881.6
652.5
2,675.9
 
2010
791.2
143.7
935.0
694.2
2,916.6
 
2011
833.1
158.5
991.6
737.4
3,170.8
 
2012
874.8
173.6
1,048.4
787.6
3,431.5
 
2013
915.8
189.1
1,104.9
842.8
3,693.6
 
2014
957.6
204.7
1,162.3
902.3
3,953.6
 
2015
1,002.0
219.9
1,221.9
965.9
4,209.7
 
2016
1,048.5
235.0
1,283.5
1,033.8
4,459.3
 
2020
1,252.5
293.9
1,546.4
1,349.0
5,343.6
 
2025
1,553.1
334.3
1,887.4
1,832.6
5,942.1
 
2030
1,920.6
318.9
2,239.5
2,420.9
5,540.7
 
2035
2,375.3
226.8
2,602.1
3,088.5
3,738.9
 
20401
2,934.7
40.4
2,975.1
3,833.6
221.6
Low Cost:
 
2007
676.3
109.5
785.8
592.6
2,241.3
 
2008
716.9
118.5
835.4
613.0
2,463.8
 
2009
756.6
129.3
885.9
643.3
2,706.4
 
2010
795.2
141.3
936.5
676.9
2,966.0
 
2011
835.1
155.1
990.2
710.8
3,245.4
 
2012
875.2
170.2
1,045.4
750.4
3,540.5
 
2013
915.1
186.5
1,101.7
794.1
3,848.1
 
2014
956.1
204.1
1,160.2
841.1
4,167.2
 
2015
997.8
221.5
1,219.3
891.2
4,495.3
 
2016
1,041.0
239.4
1,280.4
944.5
4,831.2
 
2020
1,223.7
319.9
1,543.5
1,197.9
6,207.2
 
2025
1,486.6
412.9
1,899.5
1,574.0
7,891.5
 
2030
1,802.7
495.0
2,297.7
2,008.1
9,408.0
 
2035
2,191.8
570.6
2,762.4
2,476.9
10,818.5
 
2040
2,672.6
654.1
3,326.7
2,976.4
12,408.2
 
2045
3,264.6
763.5
4,028.1
3,556.0
14,511.5
 
2050
3,988.4
909.2
4,897.6
4,275.6
17,309.5
 
2055
4,876.8
1,097.6
5,974.4
5,186.8
20,912.1
 
2060
5,968.7
1,333.1
7,301.8
6,318.0
25,410.7
 
2065
7,317.3
1,632.0
8,949.3
7,679.5
31,140.8
 
2070
8,982.3
2,024.0
11,006.3
9,321.0
38,679.1
 
2075
11,032.3
2,546.2
13,578.4
11,336.3
48,724.2
 
2080
13,545.3
3,231.6
16,776.9
13,876.6
61,877.8
 
2085
16,632.9
4,104.1
20,737.0
17,086.4
78,581.6
High Cost:
 
2007
665.7
107.8
773.5
597.8
2,223.8
 
2008
689.6
115.7
805.3
627.8
2,401.3
 
2009
734.9
127.3
862.2
668.5
2,595.0
 
2010
768.9
139.7
908.5
716.0
2,787.5
 
2011
818.2
156.9
975.1
775.7
2,986.9
 
2012
881.5
183.5
1,065.0
854.2
3,197.8
 
2013
937.7
202.7
1,140.4
938.1
3,400.1
 
2014
989.4
215.5
1,204.9
1,021.7
3,583.3
 
2015
1,041.3
225.3
1,266.6
1,104.4
3,745.4
 
2016
1,093.9
233.9
1,327.7
1,193.3
3,879.9
 
2020
1,330.1
240.3
1,570.4
1,593.0
4,055.9
 
2025 1
1,688.3
188.5
1,876.8
2,222.7
3,035.9

1Estimates for later years are not shown because the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to become exhausted in 2041 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2030 under the high cost assumptions.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Table VI.F9 shows, in current dollars, estimated income (excluding interest) and estimated total cost (excluding the cost of accumulating target trust fund balances) of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, of the HI Trust Fund, and of the combined OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds, based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions described earlier in this report. For OASDI, income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions, proceeds from taxation of OASDI benefits, and miscellaneous transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of benefit payments, administrative expenses, net transfers from the trust funds to the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. For HI, income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions (including contributions from railroad employment) and proceeds from the taxation of OASDI benefits. Total cost consists of outlays (scheduled benefits and administrative expenses) for insured beneficiaries. Income and cost estimates are shown on a cash basis for the OASDI program and on an incurred basis for the HI program.

Table VI.F9 also shows the difference between income excluding interest and cost, which is called the balance. The balance indicates the size of the difference between tax income and cost.

Table VI.F9.-OASDI and HI Annual Income Excluding Interest, Cost, and
Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2007-85 

[In billions]

Calendar
year
OASDI
 
HI
 
Combined
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Intermediate:
 
2007
$674
$594
$79
 
$204
$206
-$1
 
$878
$800
$78
 
2008
710
617
92
 
216
221
-5
 
926
838
88
 
2009
752
652
99
 
229
237
-8
 
981
890
91
 
2010
791
694
97
 
242
254
-12
 
1,033
948
85
 
2011
833
737
96
 
255
271
-16
 
1,088
1,009
79
 
2012
875
788
87
 
268
290
-22
 
1,143
1,077
66
 
2013
916
843
73
 
282
310
-28
 
1,198
1,153
45
 
2014
958
902
55
 
295
332
-36
 
1,253
1,234
19
 
2015
1,002
966
36
 
310
355
-45
 
1,312
1,321
-9
 
2016
1,049
1,034
15
 
325
380
-55
 
1,374
1,414
-40
 
2020
1,252
1,349
-97
 
392
508
-116
 
1,644
1,857
-213
 
2025
1,553
1,833
-279
 
490
741
-251
 
2,043
2,574
-531
 
2030
1,921
2,421
-500
 
609
1,080
-470
 
2,530
3,501
-971
 
2035
2,375
3,089
-713
 
757
1,537
-780
 
3,132
4,625
-1,493
 
2040
2,935
3,834
-899
 
936
2,113
-1,177
 
3,871
5,947
-2,076
 
2045
3,622
4,716
-1,094
 
1,155
2,826
-1,671
 
4,777
7,542
-2,765
 
2050
4,459
5,815
-1,356
 
1,423
3,705
-2,282
 
5,882
9,520
-3,637
 
2055
5,484
7,217
-1,733
 
1,752
4,810
-3,057
 
7,236
12,027
-4,790
 
2060
6,745
8,988
-2,243
 
2,159
6,248
-4,089
 
8,904
15,236
-6,332
 
2065
8,298
11,182
-2,883
 
2,660
8,107
-5,447
 
10,958
19,289
-8,331
 
2070
10,206
13,896
-3,690
 
3,275
10,459
-7,184
 
13,481
24,355
-10,874
 
2075
12,550
17,254
-4,704
 
4,032
13,398
-9,365
 
16,582
30,652
-14,070
 
2080
15,421
21,423
-6,002
 
4,961
17,040
-12,080
 
20,382
38,463
-18,082
 
2085
18,954
26,602
-7,648
 
 
Low Cost:
 
2007
676
593
84
 
206
200
6
 
882
792
90
 
2008
717
613
104
 
218
211
7
 
935
824
111
 
2009
757
643
113
 
230
221
8
 
986
864
122
 
2010
795
677
118
 
241
232
10
 
1,037
909
128
 
2011
835
711
124
 
253
242
12
 
1,089
953
136
 
2012
875
750
125
 
266
253
13
 
1,141
1,003
138
 
2013
915
794
121
 
279
265
14
 
1,194
1,059
135
 
2014
956
841
115
 
292
278
14
 
1,248
1,119
129
 
2015
998
891
107
 
305
291
14
 
1,303
1,182
121
 
2016
1,041
944
97
 
319
305
14
 
1,360
1,249
111
 
2020
1,224
1,198
26
 
377
371
6
 
1,601
1,569
32
 
2025
1,487
1,574
-87
 
461
483
-22
 
1,948
2,057
-109
 
2030
1,803
2,008
-205
 
562
627
-65
 
2,365
2,636
-271
 
2035
2,192
2,477
-285
 
685
800
-115
 
2,877
3,276
-400
 
2040
2,673
2,976
-304
 
835
1,007
-173
 
3,507
3,984
-476
 
2045
3,265
3,556
-291
 
1,018
1,263
-244
 
4,283
4,819
-536
 
2050
3,988
4,276
-287
 
1,243
1,589
-346
 
5,232
5,865
-633
 
2055
4,877
5,187
-310
 
1,520
2,027
-507
 
6,397
7,213
-817
 
2060
5,969
6,318
-349
 
1,860
2,623
-762
 
7,829
8,940
-1,112
 
2065
7,317
7,679
-362
 
2,280
3,395
-1,115
 
9,597
11,074
-1,477
 
2070
8,982
9,321
-339
 
2,797
4,377
-1,580
 
11,779
13,698
-1,919
 
2075
11,032
11,336
-304
 
3,433
5,607
-2,174
 
14,465
16,943
-2,478
 
2080
13,545
13,877
-331
 
4,215
7,131
-2,917
 
17,760
21,008
-3,248
 
2085
16,633
17,086
-453
 
 
High Cost:
       
 
2007
$666
$598
$68
 
$200
$212
-$12
 
$865
$809
$56
 
2008
690
628
62
 
212
231
-19
 
901
859
43
 
2009
735
669
66
 
225
252
-28
 
960
921
39
 
2010
769
716
53
 
235
274
-39
 
1,004
990
13
 
2011
818
776
42
 
252
303
-51
 
1,070
1,079
-9
 
2012
882
854
27
 
275
339
-64
 
1,156
1,193
-37
 
2013
938
938
1/
 
293
376
-83
 
1,231
1,314
-83
 
2014
989
1,022
-32
 
309
413
-103
 
1,299
1,435
-136
 
2015
1,041
1,104
-63
 
326
452
-126
 
1,368
1,556
-189
 
2016
1,094
1,193
-99
 
344
495
-152
 
1,438
1,689
-251
 
2020
1,330
1,593
-263
 
422
727
-305
 
1,752
2,320
-567
 
2025
1,688
2,223
-534
 
541
1,193
-653
 
2,229
3,416
-1,187
 
2030
2,137
3,033
-897
 
690
1,954
-1,265
 
2,827
4,988
-2,161
 
2035
2,696
4,009
-1,313
 
875
3,111
-2,235
 
3,571
7,120
-3,548
 
2040
3,386
5,160
-1,773
 
1,103
4,677
-3,574
 
4,490
9,837
-5,348
 
2045
4,234
6,570
-2,336
 
1,383
6,682
-5,299
 
5,617
13,252
-7,635
 
2050
5,264
8,355
-3,091
 
1,724
9,134
-7,411
 
6,987
17,490
-10,502
 
2055
6,528
10,661
-4,133
 
2,145
12,094
-9,949
 
8,673
22,755
-14,082
 
2060
8,078
13,620
-5,542
 
2,664
15,775
-13,111
 
10,742
29,395
-18,653
 
2065
9,983
17,390
-7,406
 
3,306
20,519
-17,212
 
13,290
37,908
-24,619
 
2070
12,310
22,176
-9,867
 
4,094
26,474
-22,380
 
16,404
48,650
-32,247
 
2075
15,165
28,193
-13,028
 
5,065
33,893
-28,828
 
20,230
62,086
-41,856
 
2080
18,644
35,658
-17,014
 
6,250
43,037
-36,786
 
24,894
78,694
-53,800
 
2085
22,933
44,862
-21,929
 
 

1Between -$500 million and $500 million.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Table VI.F10 shows projected future benefit amounts payable upon retirement at either the normal retirement age (NRA) or age 65, for workers attaining age 65 in 2007 and subsequent years. Illustrative benefit levels are shown for workers with four separate pre-retirement earnings patterns. All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions in this report. The benefit amounts are shown in constant 2007 dollars (adjusted to 2007 levels by the CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F6). Benefit amounts are also shown as percentages of the career-average relative earnings level for each case, wage indexed to the year prior to retirement. These percentages thus represent the benefit "replacement rate" of the career-average level of earnings.

The normal retirement age is 65 for individuals who reached age 62 before 2000, was increased to age 66 during the period 2000-05 (at a rate of 2 months per year as workers attained age 62) and is scheduled to increase to age 67 during the period 2017-22 (also by 2 months per year as workers attain age 62). Thus, for the illustrative cases shown in table VI.F10, benefit levels shown for retirement at 65 are lower than the levels shown for retirement at NRA, primarily because of the actuarial reduction for "early" (pre-NRA) retirement.

Four different pre-retirement earnings patterns are represented in table VI.F10. Three of these cases are for workers with scaled-earnings patterns,1 reflecting low, medium, and high career-average levels of pre-retirement earnings starting at age 21. The fourth case is the steady maximum earner. The three scaled-earnings cases have earnings patterns that reflect differences by age in the probability of work and in average earnings levels experienced by insured workers during the period 1991-2003. The general, career-average level of earnings for the scaled cases is set relative to the national average wage index (AWI) so that benefit levels are consistent with levels for "steady-earnings" cases that were shown in the 2000 and earlier Trustees Reports. For the scaled medium earner, the general, career-average earnings level is about equal to the AWI. For the scaled low and high earners, the general, career-average earnings level is set at about 45 percent and 160 percent of the AWI, respectively. The steady maximum earner is assumed to have earnings at (or above) the OASDI contribution and benefit base for each year prior to retirement starting at age 22.

As noted above, the scaled-earnings cases were constructed so that their career-average earnings levels are consistent with those of the corresponding steady low, average, and high earners that were illustrated in the 2000 and earlier Trustees Reports. As a result, values in this table for benefits under the present-law Social Security benefit formula are essentially comparable to those in earlier reports. Scaled-earnings cases are now being used instead of steady-earnings cases because they more accurately illustrate the differences in benefit levels under the wide variety of reform proposals considered in recent years.

Table VI.F10.-Estimated Annual Scheduled Benefit Amounts1 for Retired Workers
With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns Based on
Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 2007-85 
Year attain age 65 2
 
Retirement at normal retirement age
 
Retirement at age 65
 
Age at retirement
Constant
2007
dollars3
Percent of earnings
 
Age at retirement
Constant
2007
dollars3
Percent of earnings
Scaled low earnings:4
 
2007
 
65:10
$9,921
56.0
 
65:0
$9,443
54.2
 
2010
 
66:0
9,941
53.4
 
65:0
9,284
50.5
 
2015
 
66:0
10,979
55.7
 
65:0
10,249
52.6
 
2020
 
66:2
11,618
55.9
 
65:0
10,709
52.1
 
2025
 
67:0
12,244
55.5
 
65:0
10,608
49.0
 
2030
 
67:0
12,891
55.4
 
65:0
11,175
49.0
 
2035
 
67:0
13,589
55.3
 
65:0
11,776
49.0
 
2040
 
67:0
14,339
55.2
 
65:0
12,426
48.9
 
2045
 
67:0
15,154
55.3
 
65:0
13,135
48.9
 
2050
 
67:0
16,009
55.3
 
65:0
13,872
49.0
 
2055
 
67:0
16,894
55.4
 
65:0
14,640
49.0
 
2060
 
67:0
17,816
55.4
 
65:0
15,439
49.0
 
2065
 
67:0
18,789
55.3
 
65:0
16,285
49.0
 
2070
 
67:0
19,819
55.3
 
65:0
17,178
49.0
 
2075
 
67:0
20,914
55.3
 
65:0
18,125
49.0
 
2080
 
67:0
22,070
55.3
 
65:0
19,127
49.0
 
2085
 
67:0
23,286
55.3
 
65:0
20,180
49.0
Scaled medium earnings:5
 
2007
 
65:10
16,361
41.5
 
65:0
15,570
40.2
 
2010
 
66:0
16,394
39.6
 
65:0
15,295
37.5
 
2015
 
66:0
18,099
41.3
 
65:0
16,891
39.0
 
2020
 
66:2
19,143
41.4
 
65:0
17,652
38.7
 
2025
 
67:0
20,173
41.1
 
65:0
17,479
36.4
 
2030
 
67:0
21,240
41.1
 
65:0
18,409
36.3
 
2035
 
67:0
22,388
41.0
 
65:0
19,406
36.3
 
2040
 
67:0
23,627
41.0
 
65:0
20,477
36.3
 
2045
 
67:0
24,968
41.0
 
65:0
21,638
36.3
 
2050
 
67:0
26,372
41.0
 
65:0
22,857
36.3
 
2055
 
67:0
27,832
41.1
 
65:0
24,121
36.3
 
2060
 
67:0
29,353
41.1
 
65:0
25,437
36.3
 
2065
 
67:0
30,955
41.0
 
65:0
26,827
36.3
 
2070
 
67:0
32,655
41.0
 
65:0
28,299
36.3
 
2075
 
67:0
34,456
41.0
 
65:0
29,863
36.3
 
2080
 
67:0
36,360
41.0
 
65:0
31,511
36.3
 
2085
 
67:0
38,363
41.0
 
65:0
33,247
36.3
Scaled high earnings:6
 
2007
 
65:10
21,640
34.6
 
65:0
20,604
33.5
 
2010
 
66:0
21,732
32.8
 
65:0
20,282
31.1
 
2015
 
66:0
23,995
34.3
 
65:0
22,388
32.3
 
2020
 
66:2
25,386
34.3
 
65:0
23,411
32.0
 
2025
 
67:0
26,745
34.1
 
65:0
23,180
30.1
 
2030
 
67:0
28,164
34.0
 
65:0
24,407
30.1
 
2035
 
67:0
29,682
34.0
 
65:0
25,724
30.1
 
2040
 
67:0
31,327
33.9
 
65:0
27,151
30.1
 
2045
 
67:0
33,102
34.0
 
65:0
28,689
30.1
 
2050
 
67:0
34,965
34.0
 
65:0
30,304
30.1
 
2055
 
67:0
36,897
34.0
 
65:0
31,979
30.1
 
2060
 
67:0
38,913
34.0
 
65:0
33,726
30.1
 
2065
 
67:0
41,037
34.0
 
65:0
35,565
30.1
 
2070
 
67:0
43,291
34.0
 
65:0
37,518
30.1
 
2075
 
67:0
45,680
34.0
 
65:0
39,588
30.1
 
2080
 
67:0
48,202
34.0
 
65:0
41,775
30.1
 
2085
 
67:0
50,857
34.0
 
65:0
44,076
30.1
Steady maximum earnings: 7
 
2007
 
65:10
$25,213
28.5
 
65:0
$24,004
27.9
 
2010
 
66:0
25,944
27.0
 
65:0
24,011
25.6
 
2015
 
66:0
29,163
27.6
 
65:0
27,071
26.0
 
2020
 
66:2
30,999
27.5
 
65:0
28,487
25.6
 
2025
 
67:0
32,870
27.3
 
65:0
28,278
24.0
 
2030
 
67:0
34,652
27.3
 
65:0
29,821
24.0
 
2035
 
67:0
36,537
27.2
 
65:0
31,445
23.9
 
2040
 
67:0
38,527
27.2
 
65:0
33,160
23.9
 
2045
 
67:0
40,719
27.2
 
65:0
35,049
23.9
 
2050
 
67:0
42,950
27.3
 
65:0
36,969
24.0
 
2055
 
67:0
45,327
27.3
 
65:0
39,018
24.0
 
2060
 
67:0
47,799
27.3
 
65:0
41,147
24.0
 
2065
 
67:0
50,406
27.3
 
65:0
43,392
24.0
 
2070
 
67:0
53,171
27.3
 
65:0
45,770
24.0
 
2075
 
67:0
56,105
27.3
 
65:0
48,296
24.0
 
2080
 
67:0
59,203
27.3
 
65:0
50,963
24.0
 
2085
 
67:0
62,464
27.3
 
65:0
53,770
24.0

1Annual scheduled benefit amounts are the total for the 12-month period starting with the month of retirement.

2Assumed to attain age 65 in January of the year.

3The adjustment for constant dollars is made using the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F6.

4Career-average earnings at about 45 percent of the national average wage index (AWI).

5Career-average earnings at about 100 percent of the AWI.

6Career-average earnings at about 160 percent of the AWI.

7Earnings for each year equal to the OASDI contribution and benefit base.


1More details are provided on scaled-earnings patterns in the Social Security Administration Actuarial Note Number 2006.3, located at the following internet address: www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran3/an2006-3.html.


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