Short-Range Actuarial Projections
of the Old-Age, Survivors, and
Disability Insurance Program, 2005

Contents Previous Next List of Tables List of Figures
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos
and Richard B. Tucker

LIST OF TABLES

II. ASSUMPTIONS

II.1 Principal Economic Assumptions 9

II.2 Additional Economic Factors 10

II.3 Interest Rates  for Special Public-Debt Obligations Issuable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds 11

II.4 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage and Average Wage Index Increases,
OASDI Contribution and Benefit Base, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts
12

II.5 Selected OASDI Program Amounts Determined Under the Automatic-Adjustment Provisions 13

II.6 Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions 14

II.7 Covered Workers in the Social Security Area 15

II.8 Covered Workers as a Percent of the Social Security Area Population 16

II.9 Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions 17

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

III.A1 Workers Fully Insured for Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Benefits   25

III.A2 Social Security Area Population Under Normal Retirement Age 26

III.A3 Workers Under Normal Retirement Age Who Are Fully Insured 27

III.A4 Labor Force Participation Rates 28

Disability Insurance Program—Number of Beneficiaries

III.A5 Workers Insured in the Event of Disability as a Percent of Fully Insured 29

III.A6 Workers Insured in the Event of Disability 30

III.A7 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force 31

III.A8 DI Disabled Worker Incidence Rates 32

III.A9 DI Disabled Worker Awards 33

III.A10 DI Disabled Worker Total Termination Rates 34

III.A11 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to Death 35

III.A12 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to Recovery 36

III.A13 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to "Other" Reasons 37

III.A14 DI Disabled Worker Total Terminations 38

III.A15 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to Death 39

III.A16 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to Recovery 40

III.A17 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to "Other" Reasons 41

III.A18 DI Disabled Worker Withheld Rates 42

III.A19 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits Withheld 43

III.A20 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 44

III.A21 DI Awards to Young and Aged Spouses of Disabled Workers 45

III.A22 DI Awards to Minor, Disabled, and Student Children of Disabled Workers 46

III.A23 DI Male Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
47

III.A24 DI Female Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
48

III.A25 DI Total Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
49

III.A26 DI Young Wives of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
50

III.A27 DI Young Husbands  of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
51

III.A28 DI Aged Wives of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
52

III.A29 DI Aged Husbands of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
53

III.A30 DI Total Spouses of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
54

III.A31 DI Minor Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
55

III.A32 DI Disabled Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
56

III.A33 DI Student Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
57

Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Program—Number of Beneficiaries

III.B1 Population in the Social Security Area, Age 60 or Older 65

III.B2 OASI Workers Who Are Fully Insured, Age 60 or Older 66

III.B3 Percent of the Population That Is Fully Insured, Age 60 or Older 67

III.B4 Retired Workers With Benefits In Force 68

III.B5 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits In Force 69

III.B6 Insured Aged Spouses With Benefits In Force 70

III.B7 Total Insured Aged Beneficiaries In Force, Age 60 or Older 71

III.B8 Total Insured Aged Beneficiaries In Force, Age 60 or Older as a Percentage of Fully Insured Population 72

III.B9 Retirement Rates for Insured Aged OASI Beneficiaries 73

III.B10 Awards to Retired Workers 74

III.B11 Awards to Insured Aged Widows and Widowers 75

III.B12 Awards to Insured Aged Spouses 76

III.B13 Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld 77

III.B14 Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Retired Workers In Force 78

III.B15 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits Withheld 79

III.B16 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of
Insured Aged Widow(ers) In Force
80

III.B17 Insured Aged Spouses With Benefits Withheld 81

III.B18 Insured Aged Spouses With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Insured Aged Spouses In Force 82

III.B19 Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 83

III.B20 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 84

III.B21 Insured Aged Spouses With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 85

III.B22 Retired Workers With Benefits In Force 86

III.B23 Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 87

III.B24 Non-Orphan and Orphan Population, Under 18, in the Social Security Area 88

III.B25 Minor Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force 89

III.B26 Awards to Minor Children of Retired Workers, as a Percentage of the Non-Orphan Population 90

III.B27 Awards to Minor Children of Retired Workers 91

III.B28 Minor Children of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld 92

III.B29 Minor Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 93

III.B30 Minor Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force 94

III.B31 Awards to Minor Children of Deceased Workers as a Percentage of the Orphan Population 95

III.B32 Awards to Minor Children of Deceased Workers 96

III.B33 Minor Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld 97

III.B34 Minor Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 98

III.B35 Uninsured Population in the Social Security Area 99

III.B36 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force 100

III.B37 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force 101

III.B38 Awards to Disabled Children of Retired Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population 102

III.B39 Awards to Disabled Children of Retired Workers 103

III.B40 Awards to Disabled Children of Deceased Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population 104

III.B41 Awards to Disabled Children of Deceased Workers 105

III.B42 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld 106

III.B43 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of
Disabled Children In Force
107

III.B44 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 108

III.B45 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld 109

III.B46 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of
Disabled Children In Force
110

III.B47 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 111

III.B48 Student Children of of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
112

III.B49 Student Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
113

III.B50 Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force and as a Percent of Male Retired Workers In Force 114

III.B51 Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status and as a Percent of
Male Retired Workers In Current-Payment Status
115

III.B52 Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force 116

III.B53 Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 117

III.B54 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force 118

III.B55 Awards to Young Spouses of Retired Workers, Per 1,000 Awards to Eligible Children of Retired Workers 119

III.B56 Awards to Young Spouses of Retired Workers 120

III.B57 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Young Spouses In Force 121

III.B58 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld 122

III.B59 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 123

III.B60 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force 124

III.B61 Awards to Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers, Per 1,000 Awards to Eligible Children of
Deceased Workers
125

III.B62 Awards to Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers 126

III.B63 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Young Widow(er)s
In Force
127

III.B64 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld 128

III.B65 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 129

III.B66 Young Wives of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status 130

III.B67 Young Husbands  of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status 131

III.B68 Mother Beneficiaries In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status 132

III.B69 Father Beneficiaries   In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status 133

III.B70 Disabled Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force 134

III.B71 Awards to Disabled Widow(er)s as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population, Less Those Already
In Force
135

III.B72 Awards to Disabled Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers 136

III.B73 Disabled Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Those In Force 137

III.B74 Disabled Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld 138

III.B75 Disabled Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 139

III.B76 Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force 140

III.B77 Awards to Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population,
Less Those Already In Force
141

III.B78 Awards to Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers 142

III.B79 Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Those In Force 143

III.B80 Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld 144

III.B81 Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 145

III.B82 Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force 146

III.B83 Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 147

III.B84 Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force 148

III.B85 Awards to Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured
Population, Less Those Already In Force
149

III.B86 Awards to Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers 150

III.B87 Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of
Those In Force
151

III.B88 Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld 152

III.B89 Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 153

III.B90 Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force 154

III.B91 Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status 155

III.B92 Parents of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status 156

III.B93 Special Age-72 Beneficiaries In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status 157

III.B94 Summary of OASDI Beneficiaries In Current-Payment Status 158

OASDI Average Award Amounts

III.C1 DI Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Disabled Workers 163

III.C2 DI Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Young and Aged Spouses of Disabled Workers 164

III.C3 DI Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Minor, Disabled, and Student Children of Disabled Workers 165

III.C4 Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Retired Workers 166

III.C5 Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Survivors of Deceased Workers 167

Disability Insurance Program—Benefit Payments

III.D1 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Male Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
170

III.D2 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Female Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
171

III.D3 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Total Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
172

III.D4 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Young Wives of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
173

III.D5 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Young Husbands  of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
174

III.D6 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Aged Wives of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
175

III.D7 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Aged Husbands of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
176

III.D8 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Total Spouses of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
177

III.D9 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Minor Children of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
178

III.D10 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Disabled Children of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
179

III.D11 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Student Children of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
180

III.D12 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Disabled Workers 181

III.D13 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Young Spouses of Disabled Workers 182

III.D14 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Aged Spouses of Disabled Workers 183

III.D15 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Total Spouses of Disabled Workers 184

III.D16 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Children of Disabled Workers 185

III.D17 DI Current-Payment Benefits to Total Children of Disabled Workers 186

III.D18 DI Non-Current-Payment Benefits 187

III.D19 DI Current-Payment, Non-Current-Payment, and Total Benefits for All Beneficiaries 188

III.D20 DI Current-Payment, Non-Current-Payment, and Total Benefits for Disabled Workers 189

III.D21 DI Current-Payment, Non-Current-Payment, and Total Benefits for Spouses of Disabled Workers 190

III.D22 DI Current-Payment, Non-Current-Payment, and Total Benefits for Children of Disabled Workers 191

Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Program—Benefit Payments

III.E1 Average Monthly Benefit of Retired Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
195

III.E2 Average Monthly Benefit to Young and Aged Spouses of Retired Workers In Current-Payment Status 196

III.E3 Average Monthly Benefit to Minor, Disabled, and Student Children of Retired Workers
In Current-Payment Status
197

III.E4 Average Monthly Benefit to Minor Child Survivors of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded,
Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status
198

III.E5 Average Monthly Benefit to Disabled Child Survivors of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded,
Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status
199

III.E6 Average Monthly Benefit to Student Child Survivors of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded,
Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status
200

III.E7 Average Monthly Benefit to Aged Widows and Widowers of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status 201

III.E8 Average Monthly Benefit to Mother and Father Beneficiaries In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
202

III.E9 Average Monthly Benefit to Parents of Deceased Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status
203

III.E10 Average Monthly Benefit to Disabled Widows and Widowers of Deceased Workers In Force,
Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status
204

III.E11 Average Monthly Benefit to Special Age-72 Beneficiaries In Current-Payment Status 205

III.E12 Current-Payment Benefits to Retired Workers 206

III.E13 Current-Payment Benefits to Young Spouses of Retired Workers 207

III.E14 Current-Payment Benefits to Aged Spouses of Retired Workers 208

III.E15 Current-Payment Benefits to Total Spouses of Retired Workers 209

III.E16 Current-Payment Benefits to Children of Retired Workers 210

III.E17 Current-Payment Benefits to Children of Deceased Workers 211

III.E18 Current-Payment Benefits to OASI Children 212

III.E19 Current-Payment Benefits to Aged Widows and Widowers of Deceased Workers 213

III.E20 Current-Payment Benefits to Mother and Father Beneficiaries 214

III.E21 Current-Payment Benefits to Parents of Deceased Workers 215

III.E22 Current-Payment Benefits to Disabled Widows and Widowers of Deceased Workers 216

III.E23 Current-Payment Benefits to Special Age-72 Beneficiaries 217

III.E24 Non-Current-Payment Benefits to Retired Workers and Dependents, Other Than Benefits Due to AERO 218

III.E25 Non-Current-Payment Benefits to Retired Workers and Dependents 219

III.E26 Non-Current-Payment Benefits to Survivors of Deceased Workers, Other Than Benefits Due to AERO 220

III.E27 Non-Current-Payment Benefits to Survivors of Deceased Workers 221

III.E28 Lump-Sum Death Benefits 222

III.E29 Number of OASI Beneficiaries Receiving Both a Retired Worker and Secondary Benefit,
by Type of Secondary Benefit
223

III.E30 Average Reduced Secondary Benefits for OASI Beneficiaries Receiving Both a Retired Worker
and Secondary Benefit, by Type of Secondary Benefit
224

III.E31 Reduced Secondary Benefits of OASI Beneficiaries Receiving Both a Retired Worker and
Secondary Benefit, by Type of Secondary Benefit
225

III.E32 Adjusted Current-Payment Benefits, Non-Current-Payment Benefits, and Total Benefits to
OASI Beneficiaries
226

III.E33 Summary of OASDI Current-Payment Benefits 227

III.E34 Summary of OASDI Non-Current-Payment Benefits 228

III.E35 Summary of OASDI Benefit Payments 229

IV. TRUST FUND INCOME AND OUTGO

IV.1 Contribution Rates to the OASI and DI Trust Funds 239

IV.2 FICA, SECA, and State Deposit Revenue to the OASI Trust Fund 240

IV.3 FICA, SECA, and State Deposit Revenue to the DI Trust Fund 241

IV.4 Income from Taxation of OASI and DI Benefits 242

IV.5 Benefits Withheld from Nonresident Aliens and Credited to the OASI and DI Trust Funds 243

IV.6 Payments to the OASI and DI Trust Funds due to Military Service Credits 244

IV.7 Reimbursements for Payments to Uninsured Persons Who Attained Age 72 Before 1968 245

IV.8 Interest Paid to the OASI and DI Trust Funds 246

IV.9 Reimbursements to the OASI and DI Trust Funds due to Unnegotiated Checks 247

IV.10 Expenses for Vocational Rehabilitation Services Paid by the OASI and DI Trust Funds 248

IV.11 Transfers Between the OASI and DI Trust Funds and the Railroad Retirement Program 249

IV.12 Net Administrative Expenses from the OASI and DI Trust Funds 250

IV.13 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund 251

IV.14 Operations of the DI Trust Fund 252

IV.15 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 253

IV.16 Trust Fund Ratios  of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds 254

IV.17 Comparison of Income Rates and Cost Rates of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds 255

V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

Low Cost Assumptions

V.A1 Principal Economic Assumptions 259

V.A2 Additional Economic Factors 259

V.A3 Interest Rates  for Special Public-Debt Obligations Issuable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds 260

V.A4 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index Increases, OASDI Contribution and
Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts
260

V.A5 Selected OASDI Program Amounts Determined Under the Automatic-Adjustment Provisions 260

V.A6 Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions 261

V.A7 Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions 261

V.A8 Summary of OASDI Beneficiaries In Current-Payment Status 262

V.A9 Summary of OASDI Benefit Payments 263

V.A10 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund 264

V.A11 Operations of the DI Trust Fund 265

V.A12 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 266

V.A13 Trust Fund Ratios  of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds 267

V.A14 Comparison of Income Rates and Cost Rates of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds 267

High Cost Assumptions

V.B1 Principal Economic Assumptions 269

V.B2 Additional Economic Factors 269

V.B3 Interest Rates  for Special Public-Debt Obligations Issuable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds 270

V.B4 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index Increases, OASDI Contribution and
Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts
270

V.B5 Selected OASDI Program Amounts Determined Under the Automatic-Adjustment Provisions 270

V.B6 Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions 271

V.B7 Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions 271

V.B8 Summary of OASDI Beneficiaries In Current-Payment Status 272

V.B9 Summary of OASDI Benefit Payments 273

V.B10 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund 274

V.B11 Operations of the DI Trust Fund 275

V.B12 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds 276

V.B13 Trust Fund Ratios  of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds 277

V.B14 Comparison of Income Rates and Cost Rates of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds 277


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