Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
 |
 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
415.6
|
$93.55
|
74.9
|
$106.09
|
89.7
|
0.9756
|
$104.31
|
400.8
|
$107.36
|
1.0037
|
$107.76
|
|
1981
|
11.2
|
400.8
|
107.36
|
64.3
|
100.45
|
95.8
|
.9544
|
113.94
|
369.2
|
117.61
|
1.0067
|
118.40
|
|
1982
|
7.4
|
369.2
|
117.61
|
45.5
|
97.31
|
104.3
|
.9543
|
120.54
|
310.4
|
124.09
|
1.0075
|
125.02
|
|
1983
|
3.5
|
310.4
|
124.09
|
43.7
|
99.60
|
105.8
|
1.0503
|
134.90
|
248.3
|
120.60
|
1.0157
|
122.49
|
|
1984
|
3.5
|
248.3
|
120.60
|
46.4
|
99.50
|
52.2
|
.9641
|
120.34
|
242.5
|
120.94
|
1.0173
|
123.03
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
242.5
|
120.94
|
48.5
|
100.03
|
46.7
|
.9489
|
118.31
|
244.4
|
121.01
|
1.0207
|
123.51
|
|
1986
|
1.3
|
244.4
|
121.01
|
47.7
|
99.33
|
52.0
|
.9928
|
121.71
|
240.1
|
118.15
|
1.0223
|
120.79
|
|
1987
|
4.2
|
240.1
|
118.15
|
43.3
|
102.76
|
51.5
|
1.0072
|
124.00
|
231.9
|
119.37
|
1.0271
|
122.60
|
|
1988
|
4.0
|
231.9
|
119.37
|
42.6
|
104.89
|
49.9
|
.9668
|
120.02
|
224.6
|
120.97
|
1.0304
|
124.65
|
|
1989
|
4.7
|
224.6
|
120.97
|
40.2
|
109.75
|
45.3
|
.9331
|
118.18
|
219.6
|
124.79
|
1.0360
|
129.28
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
219.6
|
124.79
|
41.8
|
114.28
|
43.2
|
.9402
|
123.67
|
218.3
|
129.06
|
1.0376
|
133.91
|
|
1991
|
3.7
|
218.3
|
129.06
|
45.5
|
117.00
|
42.7
|
.9298
|
124.44
|
221.1
|
131.15
|
1.0401
|
136.41
|
|
1992
|
3.0
|
221.1
|
131.15
|
49.8
|
116.25
|
42.6
|
.9352
|
126.33
|
228.3
|
131.63
|
1.0430
|
137.29
|
|
1993
|
2.6
|
228.3
|
131.63
|
46.3
|
118.37
|
42.6
|
.9874
|
133.35
|
231.9
|
131.70
|
1.0452
|
137.65
|
|
1994
|
2.8
|
231.9
|
131.70
|
42.7
|
121.77
|
41.9
|
.9743
|
131.91
|
232.8
|
133.56
|
1.0501
|
140.25
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
232.8
|
133.56
|
37.9
|
128.21
|
42.2
|
.9803
|
134.33
|
228.4
|
136.12
|
1.0516
|
143.15
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
228.4
|
136.12
|
33.0
|
132.92
|
40.9
|
.9478
|
132.76
|
220.5
|
140.75
|
1.0420
|
146.66
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
220.5
|
140.75
|
25.5
|
136.96
|
40.6
|
.9591
|
137.83
|
205.4
|
144.21
|
1.0441
|
150.57
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
205.4
|
144.21
|
23.0
|
142.38
|
35.7
|
.9774
|
142.78
|
192.7
|
146.37
|
1.0517
|
153.94
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
192.7
|
146.37
|
21.8
|
148.11
|
34.4
|
1.0065
|
151.01
|
180.1
|
149.72
|
1.0633
|
159.20
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
180.1
|
149.72
|
19.7
|
160.09
|
31.9
|
1.0006
|
155.05
|
167.8
|
155.68
|
1.0701
|
166.60
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
167.8
|
155.68
|
18.9
|
167.96
|
29.3
|
1.0134
|
161.87
|
157.5
|
160.95
|
1.0746
|
172.96
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
157.5
|
160.95
|
20.5
|
170.05
|
29.1
|
1.0663
|
174.02
|
148.9
|
164.52
|
1.0762
|
177.06
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
148.9
|
164.52
|
20.4
|
175.97
|
26.9
|
1.0703
|
179.78
|
142.4
|
169.23
|
1.0778
|
182.40
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
142.4
|
169.23
|
18.8
|
181.50
|
26.9
|
.9156
|
159.14
|
134.2
|
180.13
|
1.0502
|
189.18
|
|
2005-I
|
...
|
134.2
|
180.13
|
5.0
|
182.71
|
6.2
|
1.1120
|
200.30
|
133.1
|
179.29
|
1.0634
|
190.66
|
|
2005-II
|
...
|
133.1
|
179.29
|
5.0
|
182.06
|
6.1
|
.9630
|
172.66
|
131.9
|
179.70
|
1.0661
|
191.58
|
|
2005-III
|
...
|
131.9
|
179.70
|
5.0
|
181.41
|
6.0
|
.9460
|
170.00
|
130.8
|
180.22
|
1.0714
|
193.09
|
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
130.8
|
180.22
|
4.7
|
184.38
|
6.0
|
1.0710
|
196.89
|
129.5
|
183.25
|
1.0724
|
196.52
|
|
2006-I
|
...
|
129.5
|
183.25
|
4.8
|
184.73
|
5.9
|
1.1120
|
203.77
|
128.4
|
182.36
|
1.0634
|
193.92
|
|
2006-II
|
...
|
128.4
|
182.36
|
4.8
|
185.08
|
5.9
|
.9630
|
175.61
|
127.3
|
182.77
|
1.0661
|
194.85
|
|
2006-III
|
...
|
127.3
|
182.77
|
4.8
|
185.43
|
5.8
|
.9460
|
172.90
|
126.3
|
183.33
|
1.0714
|
196.42
|
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
126.3
|
183.33
|
4.5
|
189.86
|
5.8
|
1.0710
|
200.68
|
125.0
|
186.85
|
1.0724
|
200.38
|
|
2007-I
|
...
|
125.0
|
186.85
|
4.9
|
190.39
|
5.7
|
1.1120
|
207.78
|
124.2
|
186.02
|
1.0634
|
197.82
|
|
2007-II
|
...
|
124.2
|
186.02
|
4.9
|
190.92
|
5.7
|
.9630
|
179.14
|
123.3
|
186.53
|
1.0661
|
198.86
|
|
2007-III
|
...
|
123.3
|
186.53
|
4.9
|
191.45
|
5.7
|
.9460
|
176.46
|
122.6
|
187.20
|
1.0714
|
200.56
|
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
122.6
|
187.20
|
4.6
|
197.16
|
5.6
|
1.0710
|
205.92
|
121.5
|
191.82
|
1.0724
|
205.71
|
|
2008-I
|
...
|
121.5
|
191.82
|
4.9
|
197.89
|
5.6
|
1.1120
|
213.30
|
120.9
|
191.07
|
1.0634
|
203.19
|
|
2008-II
|
...
|
120.9
|
191.07
|
4.9
|
198.62
|
5.6
|
.9630
|
184.00
|
120.2
|
191.71
|
1.0661
|
204.38
|
|
2008-III
|
...
|
120.2
|
191.71
|
4.9
|
199.35
|
5.5
|
.9460
|
181.36
|
119.7
|
192.50
|
1.0714
|
206.24
|
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
119.7
|
192.50
|
4.6
|
205.69
|
5.5
|
1.0710
|
211.96
|
118.8
|
197.56
|
1.0724
|
211.86
|
|
2009-I
|
...
|
118.8
|
197.56
|
5.2
|
206.33
|
5.5
|
1.1120
|
219.69
|
118.5
|
196.92
|
1.0634
|
209.41
|
|
2009-II
|
...
|
118.5
|
196.92
|
5.2
|
206.97
|
5.4
|
.9630
|
189.64
|
118.2
|
197.70
|
1.0661
|
210.77
|
|
2009-III
|
...
|
118.2
|
197.70
|
5.2
|
207.62
|
5.4
|
.9460
|
187.02
|
118.0
|
198.63
|
1.0714
|
212.81
|
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
118.0
|
198.63
|
4.9
|
214.09
|
5.4
|
1.0710
|
218.70
|
117.4
|
203.95
|
1.0724
|
218.71
|
|
2010-I
|
...
|
117.4
|
203.95
|
5.1
|
215.16
|
5.4
|
1.1120
|
226.79
|
117.1
|
203.38
|
1.0634
|
216.27
|
|
2010-II
|
...
|
117.1
|
203.38
|
5.1
|
216.23
|
5.4
|
.9630
|
195.85
|
116.8
|
204.29
|
1.0661
|
217.79
|
|
2010-III
|
...
|
116.8
|
204.29
|
5.1
|
217.29
|
5.4
|
.9460
|
193.25
|
116.5
|
205.36
|
1.0714
|
220.02
|
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
116.5
|
205.36
|
4.8
|
224.47
|
5.3
|
1.0710
|
226.12
|
115.9
|
210.98
|
1.0724
|
226.26
|
|
2011-I
|
...
|
115.9
|
210.98
|
5.0
|
225.55
|
5.3
|
1.1120
|
234.61
|
115.6
|
210.53
|
1.0634
|
223.87
|
|
2011-II
|
...
|
115.6
|
210.53
|
5.0
|
226.63
|
5.3
|
.9630
|
202.74
|
115.3
|
211.59
|
1.0661
|
225.57
|
|
2011-III
|
...
|
115.3
|
211.59
|
5.0
|
227.71
|
5.3
|
.9460
|
200.16
|
115.0
|
212.82
|
1.0714
|
228.02
|
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
115.0
|
212.82
|
4.7
|
235.20
|
5.3
|
1.0710
|
234.33
|
114.4
|
218.76
|
1.0724
|
234.59
|
|
2012-I
|
...
|
114.4
|
218.76
|
5.1
|
236.00
|
5.3
|
1.1120
|
243.26
|
114.3
|
218.40
|
1.0634
|
232.25
|
|
2012-II
|
...
|
114.3
|
218.40
|
5.1
|
236.80
|
5.3
|
.9630
|
210.32
|
114.2
|
219.60
|
1.0661
|
234.11
|
|
2012-III
|
...
|
114.2
|
219.60
|
5.1
|
237.60
|
5.3
|
.9460
|
207.74
|
114.0
|
220.95
|
1.0714
|
236.73
|
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
114.0
|
220.95
|
4.8
|
245.07
|
5.2
|
1.0710
|
243.28
|
113.6
|
227.17
|
1.0724
|
243.61
|
|
2013-I
|
...
|
113.6
|
227.17
|
5.1
|
245.84
|
5.2
|
1.1120
|
252.61
|
113.5
|
226.84
|
1.0634
|
241.22
|
|
2013-II
|
...
|
113.5
|
226.84
|
5.1
|
246.61
|
5.2
|
.9630
|
218.45
|
113.4
|
228.12
|
1.0661
|
243.20
|
|
2013-III
|
...
|
113.4
|
228.12
|
5.1
|
247.38
|
5.2
|
.9460
|
215.80
|
113.3
|
229.56
|
1.0714
|
245.95
|
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
113.3
|
229.56
|
4.8
|
255.09
|
5.2
|
1.0710
|
252.76
|
112.9
|
236.05
|
1.0724
|
253.13
|
|
2014-I
|
...
|
112.9
|
236.05
|
5.2
|
255.85
|
5.2
|
1.1120
|
262.48
|
112.9
|
235.74
|
1.0634
|
250.69
|
|
2014-II
|
...
|
112.9
|
235.74
|
5.2
|
256.61
|
5.2
|
.9630
|
227.02
|
112.9
|
237.11
|
1.0661
|
252.78
|
|
2014-III
|
...
|
112.9
|
237.11
|
5.2
|
257.38
|
5.2
|
.9460
|
224.30
|
112.9
|
238.63
|
1.0714
|
255.67
|
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
112.9
|
238.63
|
4.9
|
265.36
|
5.2
|
1.0710
|
262.75
|
112.6
|
245.40
|
1.0724
|
263.16
|
| 1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.