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Provision
Scheduled vs. Payable Benefits
Released: May 2024Next expected update: 2028
DEFINITIONS:
- Scheduled benefits are benefits specified under current law without regard to the balances in the Social Security trust funds.
- Payable benefits are what can be paid to all beneficiaries after trust fund reserve depletion, currently projected to occur in 2034. After that, incoming revenues will be enough to pay about 70–80 percent of scheduled benefits.
SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.
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| Year | Scheduled benefits | Payable benefits |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 1,886 | 1,886 |
| 2050 | 2,211 | 1,704 |
| 2070 | 2,710 | 1,951 |
SOURCE: Assumptions from the 2023 Trustees Report.
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| Year | Difference (percent) |
|---|---|
| 2024–2033 (each year) | 0 |
| 2034 | -20 |
| 2035 | -20 |
| 2036 | -21 |
| 2037 | -21 |
| 2038 | -21 |
| 2039 | -21 |
| 2040 | -22 |
| 2041 | -22 |
| 2042 | -22 |
| 2043 | -22 |
| 2044 | -22 |
| 2045 | -22 |
| 2046 | -22 |
| 2047 | -22 |
| 2048 | -22 |
| 2049 | -22 |
| 2050 | -22 |
| 2051 | -22 |
| 2052 | -23 |
| 2053 | -23 |
| 2054 | -23 |
| 2055 | -23 |
| 2056 | -24 |
| 2057 | -24 |
| 2058 | -24 |
| 2059 | -25 |
| 2060 | -25 |
| 2061 | -25 |
| 2062 | -26 |
| 2063 | -26 |
| 2064 | -26 |
| 2065 | -26 |
| 2066 | -27 |
| 2067 | -27 |
| 2068 | -27 |
| 2069 | -27 |
| 2070 | -28 |
| 2071 | -28 |
| 2072 | -28 |
| 2073 | -28 |
| 2074 | -28 |
| 2075 | -28 |
| 2076 | -29 |
| 2077 | -28 |
| 2078 | -29 |
| 2079 | -29 |
| 2080 | -28 |
| 2081 | -28 |
| 2082 | -28 |
| 2083 | -28 |
| 2084 | -28 |
| 2085 | -27 |
| 2086 | -27 |
| 2087 | -27 |
| 2088 | -27 |
| 2089 | -26 |
| 2090 | -26 |
| 2091 | -26 |
| 2092 | -26 |
| 2093 | -26 |
| 2094 | -26 |
| 2095 | -26 |
SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.
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| Year | Under scheduled benefits | Under payable benefits |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 2025 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2026 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 2027 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| 2028 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2029 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2030 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| 2031 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| 2032 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2033 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| 2034 | 5.0 | 8.1 |
| 2035 | 5.0 | 8.4 |
| 2036 | 4.8 | 8.4 |
| 2037 | 4.7 | 8.4 |
| 2038 | 4.8 | 8.4 |
| 2039 | 4.9 | 8.6 |
| 2040 | 4.8 | 8.6 |
| 2041 | 4.7 | 8.6 |
| 2042 | 4.8 | 8.8 |
| 2043 | 4.8 | 8.9 |
| 2044 | 4.8 | 9.0 |
| 2045 | 4.7 | 8.9 |
| 2046 | 4.8 | 9.0 |
| 2047 | 4.8 | 8.9 |
| 2048 | 4.6 | 8.7 |
| 2049 | 4.6 | 8.8 |
| 2050 | 4.6 | 8.7 |
| 2051 | 4.5 | 8.5 |
| 2052 | 4.5 | 8.5 |
| 2053 | 4.4 | 8.4 |
| 2054 | 4.3 | 8.3 |
| 2055 | 4.3 | 8.3 |
| 2056 | 4.1 | 8.1 |
| 2057 | 4.1 | 8.1 |
| 2058 | 4.1 | 8.1 |
| 2059 | 4.0 | 8.1 |
| 2060 | 3.9 | 8.0 |
| 2061 | 3.7 | 7.9 |
| 2062 | 3.6 | 7.8 |
| 2063 | 3.6 | 7.7 |
| 2064 | 3.5 | 7.5 |
| 2065 | 3.3 | 7.4 |
| 2066 | 3.3 | 7.5 |
| 2067 | 3.3 | 7.4 |
| 2068 | 3.1 | 7.2 |
| 2069 | 3.1 | 7.3 |
| 2070 | 3.1 | 7.1 |
| 2071 | 3.0 | 7.0 |
| 2072 | 2.9 | 6.9 |
| 2073 | 2.8 | 6.8 |
| 2074 | 2.7 | 6.6 |
| 2075 | 2.7 | 6.5 |
| 2076 | 2.6 | 6.3 |
| 2077 | 2.6 | 6.2 |
| 2078 | 2.5 | 6.0 |
| 2079 | 2.4 | 6.0 |
| 2080 | 2.4 | 5.8 |
| 2081 | 2.4 | 5.5 |
| 2082 | 2.4 | 5.4 |
| 2083 | 2.3 | 5.3 |
| 2084 | 2.2 | 5.0 |
| 2085 | 2.2 | 4.8 |
| 2086 | 2.1 | 4.7 |
| 2087 | 2.1 | 4.5 |
| 2088 | 2.1 | 4.4 |
| 2089 | 2.0 | 4.2 |
| 2090 | 2.0 | 4.1 |
| 2091 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| 2092 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| 2093 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| 2094 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| 2095 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
a. All projections are for beneficiaries aged 60 or older.