Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA1
|
Total
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
2/
|
0.5
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
1.0
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
...
|
9.0
|
|
1985
|
.8
|
2.3
|
2.8
|
2.8
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
2.4
|
2.8
|
2.5
|
...
|
20.7
|
|
|
1990
|
.9
|
4.1
|
5.5
|
5.5
|
4.8
|
3.7
|
3.3
|
3.5
|
3.1
|
...
|
34.3
|
|
|
1995
|
1.3
|
4.6
|
7.9
|
9.7
|
9.2
|
7.3
|
5.4
|
4.7
|
3.7
|
...
|
53.8
|
|
|
1996
|
1.3
|
5.5
|
9.5
|
12.1
|
11.7
|
9.3
|
6.7
|
5.3
|
4.3
|
...
|
65.7
|
|
|
1997
|
1.2
|
5.5
|
8.9
|
11.7
|
11.6
|
9.4
|
7.3
|
5.7
|
4.0
|
...
|
65.3
|
|
|
1998
|
1.1
|
5.2
|
9.1
|
12.4
|
12.8
|
10.7
|
8.3
|
6.4
|
4.3
|
...
|
70.3
|
|
|
1999
|
1.2
|
5.0
|
8.7
|
12.9
|
13.4
|
11.4
|
8.9
|
7.0
|
4.8
|
...
|
73.3
|
|
|
2000
|
1.2
|
4.2
|
7.9
|
11.9
|
13.5
|
11.8
|
9.3
|
7.1
|
4.7
|
...
|
71.7
|
|
|
2001
|
1.3
|
3.9
|
7.6
|
11.5
|
13.9
|
12.5
|
10.1
|
7.6
|
5.0
|
...
|
73.4
|
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
3.8
|
7.0
|
10.9
|
13.7
|
13.0
|
10.5
|
8.2
|
5.4
|
...
|
73.8
|
|
|
2003
|
1.6
|
3.7
|
6.3
|
9.8
|
13.2
|
13.0
|
10.5
|
8.5
|
5.7
|
0.1
|
72.4
|
|
|
2004
|
1.6
|
4.1
|
6.1
|
9.3
|
13.0
|
13.4
|
11.2
|
9.4
|
6.1
|
.3
|
74.5
|
|
|
2005
|
1.6
|
4.4
|
6.4
|
9.8
|
13.6
|
14.7
|
11.6
|
9.9
|
6.3
|
.4
|
78.7
|
|
|
2006
|
1.5
|
4.6
|
6.4
|
9.7
|
13.2
|
14.9
|
12.0
|
10.2
|
6.6
|
.6
|
79.8
|
|
|
2007
|
1.5
|
4.8
|
6.5
|
9.6
|
12.8
|
14.8
|
12.3
|
10.4
|
7.1
|
.8
|
80.5
|
|
|
2008
|
1.4
|
4.8
|
6.8
|
9.5
|
12.4
|
14.8
|
12.6
|
10.6
|
7.5
|
1.0
|
81.3
|
|
|
2009
|
0.1
|
1.5
|
4.8
|
7.2
|
9.4
|
12.1
|
14.8
|
12.8
|
10.9
|
7.8
|
1.0
|
82.3
|
|
2010
|
.1
|
1.5
|
4.8
|
7.5
|
9.2
|
12.1
|
14.5
|
13.0
|
11.2
|
8.2
|
1.0
|
82.9
|
|
2011
|
1.5
|
4.7
|
7.7
|
9.0
|
12.0
|
14.1
|
13.1
|
11.6
|
8.4
|
1.1
|
83.2
|
|
|
2012
|
1.5
|
4.5
|
7.8
|
9.1
|
11.8
|
13.7
|
13.1
|
11.9
|
8.6
|
1.2
|
83.3
|
|
|
2013
|
1.5
|
4.5
|
7.8
|
9.3
|
11.6
|
13.3
|
13.1
|
12.2
|
8.8
|
1.2
|
83.4
|
|
|
2014
|
1.5
|
4.5
|
7.7
|
9.5
|
11.4
|
13.0
|
13.0
|
12.4
|
9.1
|
1.3
|
83.5
|
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
.1
|
.3
|
.3
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.4
|
...
|
2.9
|
|
|
1985
|
.3
|
.7
|
.8
|
.8
|
.6
|
.7
|
.9
|
1.0
|
.8
|
...
|
6.5
|
|
|
1990
|
.3
|
1.4
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.3
|
...
|
13.5
|
|
|
1995
|
.4
|
1.6
|
2.5
|
3.0
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
2.6
|
2.3
|
1.5
|
...
|
20.4
|
|
|
1996
|
.4
|
1.8
|
2.8
|
3.6
|
3.9
|
3.6
|
3.1
|
2.4
|
1.7
|
...
|
23.2
|
|
|
1997
|
.4
|
1.8
|
2.9
|
3.8
|
4.2
|
4.1
|
3.5
|
2.7
|
1.8
|
...
|
25.3
|
|
|
1998
|
.4
|
1.9
|
3.2
|
4.3
|
4.8
|
4.7
|
4.0
|
3.1
|
1.9
|
...
|
28.4
|
|
|
1999
|
.4
|
2.0
|
3.1
|
4.5
|
5.1
|
5.0
|
4.4
|
3.6
|
2.2
|
...
|
30.2
|
|
|
2000
|
.5
|
1.7
|
2.7
|
4.1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
4.4
|
3.5
|
2.1
|
...
|
29.0
|
|
|
2001
|
.5
|
1.7
|
2.8
|
4.2
|
5.3
|
5.4
|
4.7
|
3.7
|
2.2
|
...
|
30.5
|
|
|
2002
|
.5
|
1.6
|
2.7
|
4.0
|
5.3
|
5.6
|
5.0
|
4.1
|
2.4
|
...
|
31.2
|
|
|
2003
|
.5
|
1.5
|
2.4
|
3.6
|
5.0
|
5.3
|
4.8
|
4.2
|
2.6
|
.1
|
30.0
|
|
|
2004
|
.5
|
1.6
|
2.3
|
3.5
|
5.1
|
5.5
|
5.1
|
4.5
|
2.9
|
.1
|
31.2
|
|
|
2005
|
.5
|
1.8
|
2.6
|
4.0
|
5.7
|
6.6
|
5.4
|
4.8
|
3.0
|
.2
|
34.6
|
|
|
2006
|
.5
|
1.9
|
2.7
|
4.1
|
5.7
|
6.8
|
5.6
|
5.1
|
3.2
|
.3
|
35.9
|
|
|
2007
|
.5
|
1.9
|
2.8
|
4.1
|
5.7
|
6.9
|
5.8
|
5.2
|
3.5
|
.4
|
36.8
|
|
|
2008
|
.5
|
2.0
|
2.9
|
4.2
|
5.6
|
7.1
|
6.0
|
5.4
|
3.7
|
.5
|
37.9
|
|
|
2009
|
.6
|
2.0
|
3.1
|
4.2
|
5.6
|
7.2
|
6.2
|
5.7
|
3.9
|
.5
|
38.9
|
|
|
2010
|
.6
|
2.0
|
3.2
|
4.2
|
5.7
|
7.2
|
6.4
|
5.9
|
4.2
|
.5
|
39.8
|
|
|
2011
|
.6
|
1.9
|
3.3
|
4.2
|
5.8
|
7.1
|
6.5
|
6.1
|
4.3
|
.6
|
40.4
|
|
|
2012
|
.6
|
1.9
|
3.3
|
4.3
|
5.8
|
7.0
|
6.6
|
6.4
|
4.5
|
.6
|
40.9
|
|
|
2013
|
.6
|
1.9
|
3.4
|
4.4
|
5.8
|
6.9
|
6.7
|
6.5
|
4.7
|
.7
|
41.4
|
|
|
2014
|
.6
|
1.9
|
3.3
|
4.5
|
5.8
|
6.8
|
6.7
|
6.7
|
4.9
|
.7
|
41.9
|
|
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
.6
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.3
|
1.6
|
1.9
|
1.6
|
...
|
11.9
|
|
|
1985
|
1.0
|
2.9
|
3.6
|
3.5
|
2.9
|
2.8
|
3.3
|
3.8
|
3.3
|
...
|
27.2
|
|
|
1990
|
1.2
|
5.5
|
7.1
|
7.4
|
6.9
|
5.5
|
4.7
|
5.0
|
4.4
|
...
|
47.8
|
|
|
1995
|
1.7
|
6.2
|
10.4
|
12.7
|
12.4
|
10.5
|
8.0
|
7.0
|
5.3
|
...
|
74.2
|
|
|
1996
|
1.7
|
7.2
|
12.4
|
15.7
|
15.6
|
12.9
|
9.8
|
7.7
|
6.0
|
...
|
88.9
|
|
|
1997
|
1.6
|
7.3
|
11.8
|
15.5
|
15.9
|
13.5
|
10.8
|
8.4
|
5.8
|
...
|
90.6
|
|
|
1998
|
1.6
|
7.2
|
12.3
|
16.6
|
17.7
|
15.4
|
12.2
|
9.5
|
6.2
|
...
|
98.7
|
|
|
1999
|
1.6
|
7.0
|
11.8
|
17.4
|
18.6
|
16.5
|
13.3
|
10.5
|
6.9
|
...
|
103.6
|
|
|
2000
|
1.7
|
5.9
|
10.7
|
16.1
|
18.5
|
16.9
|
13.7
|
10.5
|
6.8
|
...
|
100.7
|
|
|
2001
|
1.8
|
5.6
|
10.4
|
15.7
|
19.2
|
17.9
|
14.9
|
11.4
|
7.2
|
...
|
103.9
|
|
|
2002
|
1.9
|
5.4
|
9.7
|
14.8
|
18.9
|
18.6
|
15.5
|
12.3
|
7.8
|
...
|
105.0
|
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
5.2
|
8.8
|
13.5
|
18.2
|
18.3
|
15.4
|
12.7
|
8.3
|
.1
|
102.5
|
|
|
2004
|
2.1
|
5.7
|
8.5
|
12.8
|
18.1
|
18.9
|
16.3
|
13.9
|
9.0
|
.4
|
105.7
|
|
|
2005
|
.1
|
2.1
|
6.2
|
9.0
|
13.7
|
19.3
|
21.3
|
17.0
|
14.8
|
9.3
|
.6
|
113.3
|
|
2006
|
.1
|
2.1
|
6.5
|
9.1
|
13.8
|
18.9
|
21.7
|
17.6
|
15.3
|
9.9
|
.8
|
115.6
|
|
2007
|
.1
|
2.0
|
6.7
|
9.3
|
13.7
|
18.4
|
21.8
|
18.2
|
15.6
|
10.6
|
1.2
|
117.3
|
|
2008
|
.1
|
2.0
|
6.8
|
9.7
|
13.6
|
18.0
|
21.9
|
18.6
|
16.0
|
11.2
|
1.5
|
119.2
|
|
2009
|
.1
|
2.1
|
6.8
|
10.2
|
13.6
|
17.8
|
22.0
|
19.0
|
16.5
|
11.8
|
1.5
|
121.2
|
|
2010
|
.1
|
2.1
|
6.8
|
10.7
|
13.4
|
17.8
|
21.7
|
19.3
|
17.1
|
12.3
|
1.5
|
122.7
|
|
2011
|
2.1
|
6.6
|
11.0
|
13.2
|
17.7
|
21.2
|
19.6
|
17.7
|
12.7
|
1.7
|
123.5
|
|
|
2012
|
2.1
|
6.4
|
11.1
|
13.3
|
17.6
|
20.6
|
19.7
|
18.3
|
13.0
|
1.9
|
124.2
|
|
|
2013
|
2.1
|
6.4
|
11.2
|
13.6
|
17.4
|
20.2
|
19.7
|
18.7
|
13.5
|
1.9
|
124.8
|
|
|
2014
|
2.1
|
6.4
|
11.1
|
14.0
|
17.1
|
19.8
|
19.7
|
19.2
|
14.0
|
2.0
|
125.4
|
|
| 1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age—NRA." 2Fewer than 50. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.