Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
 |
 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
934.4
|
$258.25
|
129.1
|
$304.32
|
130.1
|
0.9196
|
$271.46
|
933.4
|
$296.04
|
1.0001
|
$296.08
|
|
1981
|
11.2
|
933.4
|
296.04
|
116.4
|
324.15
|
140.1
|
.9304
|
306.29
|
909.6
|
328.35
|
1.0000
|
328.35
|
|
1982
|
7.4
|
909.6
|
328.35
|
102.5
|
331.72
|
148.9
|
.9315
|
328.48
|
863.2
|
349.45
|
.9992
|
349.16
|
|
1983
|
3.5
|
863.2
|
349.45
|
132.0
|
332.75
|
151.8
|
.7247
|
262.12
|
843.4
|
360.17
|
1.0001
|
360.22
|
|
1984
|
3.5
|
843.4
|
360.17
|
129.7
|
343.74
|
118.9
|
.8158
|
304.12
|
854.3
|
371.05
|
1.0003
|
371.17
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
854.3
|
371.05
|
135.0
|
355.76
|
111.4
|
.8439
|
322.82
|
877.9
|
380.98
|
1.0003
|
381.10
|
|
1986
|
1.3
|
877.9
|
380.98
|
140.5
|
363.22
|
110.4
|
.9539
|
368.16
|
908.0
|
383.73
|
1.0005
|
383.91
|
|
1987
|
4.2
|
908.0
|
383.73
|
141.3
|
384.81
|
113.4
|
.9473
|
378.78
|
935.9
|
399.29
|
1.0010
|
399.67
|
|
1988
|
4.0
|
935.9
|
399.29
|
142.1
|
408.40
|
115.4
|
.9490
|
394.09
|
962.5
|
415.90
|
1.0011
|
416.36
|
|
1989
|
4.7
|
962.5
|
415.90
|
151.9
|
434.09
|
113.5
|
.9270
|
403.65
|
1,001.0
|
437.93
|
1.0006
|
438.20
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
1,001.0
|
437.93
|
168.5
|
462.79
|
112.9
|
.9340
|
431.11
|
1,056.5
|
464.41
|
.9999
|
464.36
|
|
1991
|
3.7
|
1,056.5
|
464.41
|
197.4
|
481.38
|
113.4
|
.9257
|
445.83
|
1,140.5
|
484.46
|
.9995
|
484.24
|
|
1992
|
3.0
|
1,140.5
|
484.46
|
239.4
|
489.04
|
117.9
|
.9173
|
457.72
|
1,261.9
|
500.25
|
.9998
|
500.13
|
|
1993
|
2.6
|
1,261.9
|
500.25
|
243.0
|
507.79
|
121.4
|
.9180
|
471.16
|
1,383.5
|
515.61
|
1.0002
|
515.70
|
|
1994
|
2.8
|
1,383.5
|
515.61
|
250.4
|
533.86
|
127.1
|
.9117
|
483.24
|
1,506.9
|
534.65
|
1.0003
|
534.79
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
1,506.9
|
534.65
|
267.1
|
560.60
|
137.6
|
.9039
|
495.86
|
1,636.3
|
554.89
|
1.0000
|
554.89
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
1,636.3
|
554.89
|
268.8
|
584.49
|
142.1
|
.9183
|
524.34
|
1,763.0
|
576.68
|
1.0000
|
576.68
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
1,763.0
|
576.68
|
260.9
|
603.63
|
158.2
|
.9232
|
543.58
|
1,865.7
|
594.69
|
.9997
|
594.52
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
1,865.7
|
594.69
|
275.4
|
619.33
|
153.0
|
.9249
|
557.15
|
1,988.0
|
608.19
|
.9995
|
607.91
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
1,988.0
|
608.19
|
283.0
|
652.89
|
164.8
|
.9450
|
589.10
|
2,106.3
|
629.76
|
.9998
|
629.63
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
2,106.3
|
629.76
|
282.5
|
697.62
|
176.1
|
.9507
|
619.65
|
2,212.7
|
660.25
|
1.0005
|
660.61
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
2,212.7
|
660.25
|
316.1
|
729.88
|
178.2
|
.9365
|
634.38
|
2,350.6
|
687.80
|
1.0007
|
688.28
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
2,350.6
|
687.80
|
343.7
|
753.80
|
190.8
|
.9569
|
667.37
|
2,503.5
|
708.33
|
1.0004
|
708.63
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
2,503.5
|
708.33
|
355.9
|
787.28
|
182.0
|
.9510
|
687.76
|
2,677.3
|
734.17
|
1.0005
|
734.52
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
2,677.3
|
734.17
|
367.1
|
817.41
|
188.7
|
.9650
|
727.63
|
2,855.7
|
764.63
|
1.0005
|
764.99
|
|
2005-I
|
...
|
2,855.7
|
764.63
|
92.9
|
819.72
|
51.4
|
1.0300
|
787.57
|
2,897.1
|
765.99
|
.9995
|
765.57
|
|
2005-II
|
...
|
2,897.1
|
765.99
|
92.9
|
820.39
|
50.4
|
.9710
|
743.78
|
2,939.6
|
768.09
|
.9995
|
767.71
|
|
2005-III
|
...
|
2,939.6
|
768.09
|
92.9
|
821.05
|
50.4
|
.9570
|
735.06
|
2,982.0
|
770.30
|
.9998
|
770.12
|
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
2,982.0
|
770.30
|
87.0
|
838.14
|
49.4
|
.8310
|
652.93
|
3,019.6
|
789.40
|
.9981
|
787.88
|
|
2006-I
|
...
|
3,019.6
|
789.40
|
92.0
|
839.50
|
54.7
|
1.0300
|
813.08
|
3,057.0
|
790.48
|
.9981
|
788.97
|
|
2006-II
|
...
|
3,057.0
|
790.48
|
92.0
|
840.86
|
53.6
|
.9710
|
767.56
|
3,095.5
|
792.38
|
.9981
|
790.91
|
|
2006-III
|
...
|
3,095.5
|
792.38
|
92.0
|
842.22
|
53.6
|
.9570
|
758.31
|
3,133.9
|
794.43
|
.9984
|
793.15
|
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
3,133.9
|
794.43
|
86.3
|
862.14
|
52.5
|
.8310
|
674.70
|
3,167.6
|
815.56
|
.9978
|
813.78
|
|
2007-I
|
...
|
3,167.6
|
815.56
|
93.6
|
864.61
|
58.2
|
1.0300
|
840.03
|
3,203.0
|
816.55
|
.9978
|
814.77
|
|
2007-II
|
...
|
3,203.0
|
816.55
|
93.6
|
867.08
|
57.0
|
.9710
|
792.87
|
3,239.5
|
818.42
|
.9979
|
816.69
|
|
2007-III
|
...
|
3,239.5
|
818.42
|
93.6
|
869.55
|
57.0
|
.9570
|
783.23
|
3,276.1
|
820.50
|
.9981
|
818.97
|
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
3,276.1
|
820.50
|
87.7
|
895.56
|
55.9
|
.8310
|
700.26
|
3,307.8
|
846.47
|
.9973
|
844.15
|
|
2008-I
|
...
|
3,307.8
|
846.47
|
97.4
|
899.30
|
63.0
|
1.0300
|
871.87
|
3,342.2
|
847.54
|
.9973
|
845.20
|
|
2008-II
|
...
|
3,342.2
|
847.54
|
97.4
|
903.04
|
61.7
|
.9710
|
822.96
|
3,377.9
|
849.58
|
.9973
|
847.30
|
|
2008-III
|
...
|
3,377.9
|
849.58
|
97.4
|
906.79
|
61.7
|
.9570
|
813.05
|
3,413.5
|
851.88
|
.9976
|
849.81
|
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
3,413.5
|
851.88
|
91.2
|
936.02
|
60.5
|
.8310
|
727.74
|
3,444.3
|
879.94
|
.9964
|
876.76
|
|
2009-I
|
...
|
3,444.3
|
879.94
|
102.4
|
939.75
|
72.4
|
1.0300
|
906.34
|
3,474.3
|
881.15
|
.9964
|
877.96
|
|
2009-II
|
...
|
3,474.3
|
881.15
|
102.4
|
943.47
|
71.0
|
.9710
|
855.60
|
3,505.7
|
883.49
|
.9964
|
880.35
|
|
2009-III
|
...
|
3,505.7
|
883.49
|
102.4
|
947.20
|
71.0
|
.9570
|
845.50
|
3,537.1
|
886.10
|
.9967
|
883.17
|
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
3,537.1
|
886.10
|
95.9
|
977.55
|
69.6
|
.8310
|
756.98
|
3,563.5
|
915.72
|
.9945
|
910.70
|
|
2010-I
|
...
|
3,563.5
|
915.72
|
103.2
|
982.23
|
74.5
|
1.0300
|
943.19
|
3,592.1
|
917.06
|
.9945
|
912.03
|
|
2010-II
|
...
|
3,592.1
|
917.06
|
103.2
|
986.90
|
73.1
|
.9710
|
890.47
|
3,622.2
|
919.59
|
.9946
|
914.59
|
|
2010-III
|
...
|
3,622.2
|
919.59
|
103.2
|
991.58
|
73.1
|
.9570
|
880.05
|
3,652.3
|
922.41
|
.9948
|
917.64
|
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
3,652.3
|
922.41
|
96.7
|
1,024.15
|
71.6
|
.8310
|
788.00
|
3,677.3
|
953.37
|
.9953
|
948.88
|
|
2011-I
|
...
|
3,677.3
|
953.37
|
102.6
|
1,029.25
|
74.6
|
1.0300
|
981.97
|
3,705.2
|
954.90
|
.9953
|
950.40
|
|
2011-II
|
...
|
3,705.2
|
954.90
|
102.6
|
1,034.35
|
73.2
|
.9710
|
927.21
|
3,734.6
|
957.62
|
.9954
|
953.17
|
|
2011-III
|
...
|
3,734.6
|
957.62
|
102.6
|
1,039.44
|
73.2
|
.9570
|
916.44
|
3,764.0
|
960.65
|
.9956
|
956.43
|
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
3,764.0
|
960.65
|
96.1
|
1,073.79
|
71.7
|
.8310
|
820.67
|
3,788.4
|
992.91
|
.9959
|
988.79
|
|
2012-I
|
...
|
3,788.4
|
992.91
|
104.8
|
1,078.19
|
81.7
|
1.0300
|
1,022.70
|
3,811.6
|
994.62
|
.9959
|
990.49
|
|
2012-II
|
...
|
3,811.6
|
994.62
|
104.8
|
1,082.59
|
80.1
|
.9710
|
965.77
|
3,836.3
|
997.62
|
.9959
|
993.54
|
|
2012-III
|
...
|
3,836.3
|
997.62
|
104.8
|
1,086.99
|
80.1
|
.9570
|
954.73
|
3,861.0
|
1,000.94
|
.9962
|
997.10
|
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
3,861.0
|
1,000.94
|
98.2
|
1,121.95
|
78.5
|
.8310
|
855.08
|
3,880.8
|
1,034.85
|
.9961
|
1,030.84
|
|
2013-I
|
...
|
3,880.8
|
1,034.85
|
106.9
|
1,126.38
|
86.9
|
1.0300
|
1,065.89
|
3,900.7
|
1,036.66
|
.9961
|
1,032.65
|
|
2013-II
|
...
|
3,900.7
|
1,036.66
|
106.9
|
1,130.81
|
85.2
|
.9710
|
1,006.60
|
3,922.3
|
1,039.88
|
.9962
|
1,035.92
|
|
2013-III
|
...
|
3,922.3
|
1,039.88
|
106.9
|
1,135.24
|
85.2
|
.9570
|
995.17
|
3,944.0
|
1,043.43
|
.9965
|
1,039.73
|
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
3,944.0
|
1,043.43
|
100.1
|
1,171.58
|
83.5
|
.8310
|
891.38
|
3,960.6
|
1,078.99
|
.9964
|
1,075.13
|
|
2014-I
|
...
|
3,960.6
|
1,078.99
|
108.9
|
1,175.96
|
88.3
|
1.0300
|
1,111.36
|
3,981.2
|
1,080.92
|
.9964
|
1,077.05
|
|
2014-II
|
...
|
3,981.2
|
1,080.92
|
108.9
|
1,180.33
|
86.5
|
.9710
|
1,049.58
|
4,003.5
|
1,084.30
|
.9965
|
1,080.49
|
|
2014-III
|
...
|
4,003.5
|
1,084.30
|
108.9
|
1,184.70
|
86.5
|
.9570
|
1,037.68
|
4,025.8
|
1,088.02
|
.9967
|
1,084.47
|
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
4,025.8
|
1,088.02
|
102.0
|
1,222.37
|
84.8
|
.8310
|
929.47
|
4,043.0
|
1,125.09
|
.9967
|
1,121.37
|
| 1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.