Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
2,882.6
|
$321.86
|
420.3
|
$398.85
|
434.6
|
0.9496
|
$349.36
|
2,868.3
|
$370.59
|
1.0004
|
$370.73
|
|
1981
|
11.2
|
2,868.3
|
370.59
|
381.0
|
429.12
|
460.2
|
.9404
|
387.54
|
2,789.1
|
412.96
|
1.0003
|
413.10
|
|
1982
|
7.4
|
2,789.1
|
412.96
|
336.1
|
443.74
|
502.1
|
.9597
|
425.64
|
2,623.1
|
440.77
|
.9995
|
440.55
|
|
1983
|
3.5
|
2,623.1
|
440.77
|
428.5
|
446.46
|
462.9
|
.7376
|
336.49
|
2,588.7
|
455.82
|
1.0007
|
456.13
|
|
1984
|
3.5
|
2,588.7
|
455.82
|
410.0
|
458.44
|
381.6
|
.8599
|
405.67
|
2,617.1
|
470.22
|
1.0009
|
470.62
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
2,617.1
|
470.22
|
416.1
|
473.65
|
352.9
|
.8902
|
431.57
|
2,680.3
|
483.40
|
1.0009
|
483.82
|
|
1986
|
1.3
|
2,680.3
|
483.40
|
424.9
|
478.30
|
351.4
|
.9898
|
484.70
|
2,753.8
|
487.31
|
1.0010
|
487.82
|
|
1987
|
4.2
|
2,753.8
|
487.31
|
420.3
|
508.04
|
360.9
|
.9911
|
503.23
|
2,813.2
|
507.32
|
1.0017
|
508.17
|
|
1988
|
4.0
|
2,813.2
|
507.32
|
415.3
|
538.08
|
365.1
|
.9948
|
524.87
|
2,863.4
|
528.38
|
1.0020
|
529.46
|
|
1989
|
4.7
|
2,863.4
|
528.38
|
430.7
|
565.49
|
357.6
|
.9856
|
545.27
|
2,936.4
|
554.89
|
1.0019
|
555.94
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
2,936.4
|
554.89
|
472.1
|
597.61
|
354.1
|
.9950
|
581.94
|
3,054.5
|
586.39
|
1.0013
|
587.18
|
|
1991
|
3.7
|
3,054.5
|
586.39
|
540.8
|
614.80
|
355.5
|
.9965
|
605.95
|
3,239.8
|
608.67
|
1.0010
|
609.29
|
|
1992
|
3.0
|
3,239.8
|
608.67
|
642.1
|
619.96
|
367.8
|
.9914
|
621.53
|
3,514.1
|
625.29
|
1.0012
|
626.02
|
|
1993
|
2.6
|
3,514.1
|
625.29
|
637.4
|
638.37
|
376.6
|
.9982
|
640.41
|
3,774.9
|
640.62
|
1.0015
|
641.61
|
|
1994
|
2.8
|
3,774.9
|
640.62
|
631.9
|
666.19
|
387.6
|
.9949
|
655.18
|
4,019.2
|
660.10
|
1.0018
|
661.32
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
4,019.2
|
660.10
|
645.6
|
693.79
|
411.4
|
.9876
|
668.88
|
4,253.5
|
680.40
|
1.0019
|
681.70
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
4,253.5
|
680.40
|
624.3
|
714.40
|
410.5
|
.9942
|
696.05
|
4,467.3
|
702.30
|
1.0022
|
703.87
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
4,467.3
|
702.30
|
587.7
|
734.09
|
463.7
|
.9856
|
706.74
|
4,591.3
|
720.19
|
1.0018
|
721.48
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
4,591.3
|
720.19
|
608.4
|
747.42
|
410.0
|
1.0001
|
729.59
|
4,789.6
|
731.79
|
1.0017
|
733.00
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
4,789.6
|
731.79
|
620.6
|
783.47
|
436.4
|
1.0202
|
765.20
|
4,973.8
|
752.62
|
1.0019
|
754.04
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
4,973.8
|
752.62
|
621.3
|
835.44
|
458.7
|
1.0281
|
800.84
|
5,136.4
|
784.32
|
1.0026
|
786.37
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
5,136.4
|
784.32
|
690.5
|
868.97
|
455.1
|
1.0127
|
814.90
|
5,371.7
|
812.29
|
1.0026
|
814.43
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
5,371.7
|
812.29
|
750.0
|
897.99
|
477.3
|
1.0336
|
851.33
|
5,644.4
|
832.36
|
1.0023
|
834.30
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
5,644.4
|
832.36
|
777.5
|
936.45
|
450.8
|
1.0261
|
872.04
|
5,971.1
|
859.49
|
1.0024
|
861.53
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
5,971.1
|
859.49
|
795.8
|
968.04
|
462.9
|
1.0407
|
918.59
|
6,303.9
|
891.97
|
1.0024
|
894.12
|
|
2005-I
|
...
|
6,303.9
|
891.97
|
200.2
|
967.07
|
124.7
|
1.1086
|
988.80
|
6,379.4
|
892.44
|
1.0014
|
893.69
|
|
2005-II
|
...
|
6,379.4
|
892.44
|
200.2
|
966.79
|
122.3
|
1.0367
|
925.15
|
6,457.4
|
894.12
|
1.0015
|
895.43
|
|
2005-III
|
...
|
6,457.4
|
894.12
|
200.2
|
966.50
|
122.3
|
1.0306
|
921.49
|
6,535.4
|
895.83
|
1.0017
|
897.35
|
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
6,535.4
|
895.83
|
187.6
|
985.54
|
119.8
|
.9067
|
828.49
|
6,603.1
|
917.34
|
1.0000
|
917.38
|
|
2006-I
|
...
|
6,603.1
|
917.34
|
197.6
|
986.80
|
130.9
|
1.1075
|
1,015.99
|
6,669.9
|
917.46
|
1.0000
|
917.49
|
|
2006-II
|
...
|
6,669.9
|
917.46
|
197.6
|
988.55
|
128.4
|
1.0357
|
950.26
|
6,739.2
|
918.92
|
1.0001
|
919.01
|
|
2006-III
|
...
|
6,739.2
|
918.92
|
197.6
|
990.31
|
128.4
|
1.0296
|
946.13
|
6,808.4
|
920.48
|
1.0003
|
920.78
|
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
6,808.4
|
920.48
|
185.2
|
1,013.90
|
125.8
|
.9057
|
852.02
|
6,867.9
|
944.34
|
.9998
|
944.14
|
|
2007-I
|
...
|
6,867.9
|
944.34
|
200.0
|
1,016.18
|
137.9
|
1.1067
|
1,045.14
|
6,930.0
|
944.41
|
.9998
|
944.20
|
|
2007-II
|
...
|
6,930.0
|
944.41
|
200.0
|
1,019.03
|
135.2
|
1.0350
|
977.50
|
6,994.9
|
945.91
|
.9998
|
945.75
|
|
2007-III
|
...
|
6,994.9
|
945.91
|
200.0
|
1,021.88
|
135.2
|
1.0288
|
973.18
|
7,059.8
|
947.54
|
1.0001
|
947.60
|
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
7,059.8
|
947.54
|
187.4
|
1,052.40
|
132.5
|
.9049
|
880.60
|
7,114.7
|
976.95
|
.9992
|
976.18
|
|
2008-I
|
...
|
7,114.7
|
976.95
|
207.7
|
1,056.19
|
147.4
|
1.1055
|
1,080.06
|
7,175.0
|
977.12
|
.9992
|
976.35
|
|
2008-II
|
...
|
7,175.0
|
977.12
|
207.7
|
1,060.29
|
144.5
|
1.0340
|
1,010.33
|
7,238.2
|
978.85
|
.9993
|
978.12
|
|
2008-III
|
...
|
7,238.2
|
978.85
|
207.7
|
1,064.39
|
144.5
|
1.0277
|
1,005.95
|
7,301.4
|
980.74
|
.9995
|
980.25
|
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
7,301.4
|
980.74
|
194.6
|
1,098.41
|
141.6
|
.9038
|
911.22
|
7,354.5
|
1,012.48
|
.9983
|
1,010.80
|
|
2009-I
|
...
|
7,354.5
|
1,012.48
|
218.2
|
1,102.05
|
166.9
|
1.1038
|
1,117.55
|
7,405.7
|
1,012.75
|
.9983
|
1,011.06
|
|
2009-II
|
...
|
7,405.7
|
1,012.75
|
218.2
|
1,105.86
|
163.6
|
1.0324
|
1,045.57
|
7,460.3
|
1,014.75
|
.9984
|
1,013.12
|
|
2009-III
|
...
|
7,460.3
|
1,014.75
|
218.2
|
1,109.67
|
163.6
|
1.0260
|
1,041.15
|
7,514.9
|
1,016.93
|
.9986
|
1,015.54
|
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
7,514.9
|
1,016.93
|
204.4
|
1,144.64
|
160.3
|
.9022
|
943.14
|
7,559.0
|
1,050.27
|
.9965
|
1,046.56
|
|
2010-I
|
...
|
7,559.0
|
1,050.27
|
219.3
|
1,149.95
|
170.8
|
1.1034
|
1,158.90
|
7,607.5
|
1,050.71
|
.9965
|
1,046.99
|
|
2010-II
|
...
|
7,607.5
|
1,050.71
|
219.3
|
1,155.56
|
167.4
|
1.0321
|
1,084.42
|
7,659.4
|
1,052.97
|
.9965
|
1,049.31
|
|
2010-III
|
...
|
7,659.4
|
1,052.97
|
219.3
|
1,161.17
|
167.4
|
1.0256
|
1,079.98
|
7,711.3
|
1,055.46
|
.9968
|
1,052.04
|
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
7,711.3
|
1,055.46
|
205.5
|
1,199.45
|
164.1
|
.9018
|
978.46
|
7,752.7
|
1,090.32
|
.9973
|
1,087.33
|
|
2011-I
|
...
|
7,752.7
|
1,090.32
|
217.4
|
1,204.83
|
170.5
|
1.1035
|
1,203.15
|
7,799.6
|
1,091.05
|
.9972
|
1,088.04
|
|
2011-II
|
...
|
7,799.6
|
1,091.05
|
217.4
|
1,210.68
|
167.1
|
1.0322
|
1,126.16
|
7,849.8
|
1,093.61
|
.9973
|
1,090.67
|
|
2011-III
|
...
|
7,849.8
|
1,093.61
|
217.4
|
1,216.53
|
167.1
|
1.0257
|
1,121.72
|
7,900.0
|
1,096.40
|
.9975
|
1,093.70
|
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
7,900.0
|
1,096.40
|
203.7
|
1,256.60
|
163.8
|
.9018
|
1,016.44
|
7,939.9
|
1,132.72
|
.9978
|
1,130.25
|
|
2012-I
|
...
|
7,939.9
|
1,132.72
|
221.3
|
1,260.64
|
184.6
|
1.1024
|
1,248.70
|
7,976.6
|
1,133.59
|
.9978
|
1,131.10
|
|
2012-II
|
...
|
7,976.6
|
1,133.59
|
221.3
|
1,265.26
|
181.0
|
1.0312
|
1,168.98
|
8,016.9
|
1,136.42
|
.9979
|
1,134.00
|
|
2012-III
|
...
|
8,016.9
|
1,136.42
|
221.3
|
1,269.89
|
181.0
|
1.0247
|
1,164.46
|
8,057.2
|
1,139.46
|
.9981
|
1,137.30
|
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
8,057.2
|
1,139.46
|
207.4
|
1,310.20
|
177.4
|
.9008
|
1,055.18
|
8,087.2
|
1,177.49
|
.9981
|
1,175.25
|
|
2013-I
|
...
|
8,087.2
|
1,177.49
|
224.9
|
1,314.15
|
194.9
|
1.1015
|
1,297.04
|
8,117.3
|
1,178.41
|
.9981
|
1,176.15
|
|
2013-II
|
...
|
8,117.3
|
1,178.41
|
224.9
|
1,318.69
|
191.0
|
1.0304
|
1,214.29
|
8,151.1
|
1,181.43
|
.9981
|
1,179.24
|
|
2013-III
|
...
|
8,151.1
|
1,181.43
|
224.9
|
1,323.23
|
191.0
|
1.0238
|
1,209.60
|
8,185.0
|
1,184.67
|
.9984
|
1,182.75
|
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
8,185.0
|
1,184.67
|
210.7
|
1,364.95
|
187.2
|
.9000
|
1,096.06
|
8,208.5
|
1,224.42
|
.9984
|
1,222.44
|
|
2014-I
|
...
|
8,208.5
|
1,224.42
|
228.5
|
1,368.91
|
196.5
|
1.1009
|
1,347.98
|
8,240.5
|
1,225.48
|
.9984
|
1,223.48
|
|
2014-II
|
...
|
8,240.5
|
1,225.48
|
228.5
|
1,373.40
|
192.7
|
1.0299
|
1,262.12
|
8,276.3
|
1,228.71
|
.9984
|
1,226.78
|
|
2014-III
|
...
|
8,276.3
|
1,228.71
|
228.5
|
1,377.89
|
192.7
|
1.0232
|
1,257.26
|
8,312.0
|
1,232.14
|
.9987
|
1,230.50
|
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
8,312.0
|
1,232.14
|
214.1
|
1,421.09
|
188.8
|
.8994
|
1,139.21
|
8,337.3
|
1,273.51
|
.9987
|
1,271.81
|
| 1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.