Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of year |
Awards
during year |
Terminations
during year |
In force
end of year |
Current-payment status
end of year |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of year |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of year |
Average
benefit |
||
|
Widows
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
4,202.4
|
$269.72
|
424.7
|
$314.70
|
331.0
|
0.8996
|
$277.33
|
4,296.1
|
$311.31
|
1.0007
|
$311.51
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
4,678.7
|
414.38
|
467.1
|
444.08
|
371.4
|
.9173
|
391.89
|
4,774.4
|
431.62
|
1.0053
|
433.92
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
5,004.3
|
516.88
|
415.8
|
570.14
|
373.9
|
.9178
|
500.00
|
5,046.2
|
550.20
|
1.0131
|
557.39
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
5,136.2
|
644.05
|
397.1
|
679.54
|
407.6
|
.9088
|
600.51
|
5,125.6
|
667.04
|
1.0212
|
681.20
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
5,125.6
|
667.04
|
391.4
|
702.41
|
405.6
|
.9137
|
627.14
|
5,111.4
|
692.32
|
1.0230
|
708.26
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
5,111.4
|
692.32
|
393.5
|
714.69
|
552.2
|
.9423
|
666.07
|
4,952.7
|
712.02
|
1.0287
|
732.45
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
4,952.7
|
712.02
|
395.6
|
725.36
|
458.3
|
.9183
|
662.39
|
4,890.0
|
727.13
|
1.0318
|
750.25
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
4,890.0
|
727.13
|
419.8
|
729.15
|
459.9
|
.9099
|
678.18
|
4,849.8
|
750.27
|
1.0344
|
776.07
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
4,849.8
|
750.27
|
455.4
|
732.60
|
496.2
|
.8782
|
681.92
|
4,809.0
|
782.14
|
1.0379
|
811.78
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
4,809.0
|
782.14
|
443.5
|
752.08
|
504.4
|
.8681
|
696.60
|
4,748.1
|
809.01
|
1.0414
|
842.49
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
4,748.1
|
809.01
|
467.3
|
751.77
|
507.0
|
.8524
|
699.24
|
4,708.4
|
826.57
|
1.0438
|
862.81
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
4,708.4
|
826.57
|
453.4
|
780.23
|
520.1
|
.8705
|
734.65
|
4,641.7
|
849.95
|
1.0465
|
889.51
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
4,641.7
|
849.95
|
458.6
|
790.08
|
630.0
|
.8892
|
776.20
|
4,470.4
|
878.03
|
1.0500
|
921.93
|
|
2005
|
2.0
|
4,470.4
|
878.03
|
456.8
|
810.23
|
533.6
|
.8322
|
745.35
|
4,393.6
|
904.96
|
1.0500
|
950.21
|
|
2006
|
2.2
|
4,393.6
|
904.96
|
461.9
|
835.90
|
522.3
|
.8285
|
766.26
|
4,333.2
|
934.51
|
1.0500
|
981.23
|
|
2007
|
2.7
|
4,333.2
|
934.51
|
466.9
|
864.27
|
511.3
|
.8226
|
789.44
|
4,288.8
|
969.65
|
1.0500
|
1,018.13
|
|
2008
|
2.8
|
4,288.8
|
969.65
|
468.3
|
895.56
|
502.1
|
.8187
|
816.05
|
4,255.0
|
1,006.98
|
1.0500
|
1,057.33
|
|
2009
|
2.8
|
4,255.0
|
1,006.98
|
471.6
|
927.16
|
501.1
|
.8169
|
845.61
|
4,225.5
|
1,045.60
|
1.0500
|
1,097.88
|
|
2010
|
2.8
|
4,225.5
|
1,045.60
|
472.9
|
960.97
|
500.4
|
.8162
|
877.30
|
4,198.0
|
1,085.60
|
1.0500
|
1,139.88
|
|
2011
|
2.8
|
4,198.0
|
1,085.60
|
477.6
|
998.50
|
499.5
|
.8147
|
909.21
|
4,176.1
|
1,127.30
|
1.0500
|
1,183.66
|
|
2012
|
2.8
|
4,176.1
|
1,127.30
|
482.7
|
1,037.38
|
496.5
|
.8120
|
941.03
|
4,162.3
|
1,170.76
|
1.0500
|
1,229.29
|
|
2013
|
2.8
|
4,162.3
|
1,170.76
|
485.5
|
1,077.83
|
494.6
|
.8106
|
975.60
|
4,153.3
|
1,215.98
|
1.0500
|
1,276.78
|
|
2014
|
2.8
|
4,153.3
|
1,215.98
|
487.8
|
1,120.89
|
493.2
|
.8097
|
1,012.12
|
4,147.9
|
1,263.13
|
1.0500
|
1,326.28
|
|
Widowers
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
20.9
|
201.04
|
11.4
|
194.60
|
7.2
|
.8053
|
185.05
|
25.2
|
226.55
|
1.0565
|
239.36
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
40.0
|
277.86
|
17.3
|
260.82
|
14.6
|
.9140
|
261.84
|
42.6
|
284.55
|
1.1169
|
317.81
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
53.3
|
329.98
|
17.9
|
326.01
|
16.6
|
.9116
|
317.06
|
54.6
|
350.00
|
1.1669
|
408.40
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
56.7
|
404.86
|
17.4
|
388.29
|
15.3
|
.9011
|
374.31
|
58.7
|
418.07
|
1.1964
|
500.19
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
58.7
|
418.07
|
17.2
|
400.32
|
16.0
|
.9027
|
388.32
|
59.9
|
432.82
|
1.2029
|
520.66
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
59.9
|
432.82
|
17.3
|
410.67
|
19.5
|
.9316
|
411.69
|
57.7
|
442.79
|
1.2072
|
534.52
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
57.7
|
442.79
|
17.7
|
416.06
|
17.3
|
.8949
|
401.41
|
58.1
|
452.64
|
1.2131
|
549.10
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
58.1
|
452.64
|
19.6
|
427.57
|
20.5
|
.8929
|
414.26
|
57.2
|
469.34
|
1.2196
|
572.42
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
57.2
|
469.34
|
22.2
|
431.36
|
20.5
|
.8428
|
409.38
|
58.8
|
491.91
|
1.2337
|
606.86
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
58.8
|
491.91
|
22.6
|
447.32
|
21.1
|
.8465
|
427.21
|
60.3
|
510.29
|
1.2480
|
636.83
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
60.3
|
510.29
|
25.6
|
457.76
|
28.3
|
.8582
|
444.05
|
57.5
|
527.08
|
1.2574
|
662.75
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
57.5
|
527.08
|
26.3
|
491.10
|
26.1
|
.8642
|
465.05
|
57.7
|
549.79
|
1.2690
|
697.71
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
57.7
|
549.79
|
27.1
|
512.72
|
23.7
|
.8416
|
475.21
|
61.2
|
576.24
|
1.2774
|
736.06
|
|
2005
|
2.0
|
61.2
|
576.24
|
26.7
|
525.79
|
26.1
|
.8126
|
477.62
|
61.7
|
607.54
|
1.2774
|
776.04
|
|
2006
|
2.2
|
61.7
|
607.54
|
27.6
|
542.46
|
26.1
|
.8000
|
496.72
|
63.2
|
637.99
|
1.2774
|
814.93
|
|
2007
|
2.7
|
63.2
|
637.99
|
28.7
|
560.86
|
26.8
|
.7882
|
516.42
|
65.2
|
670.66
|
1.2774
|
856.66
|
|
2008
|
2.8
|
65.2
|
670.66
|
29.4
|
581.17
|
27.7
|
.7850
|
541.20
|
66.8
|
703.31
|
1.2774
|
898.37
|
|
2009
|
2.8
|
66.8
|
703.31
|
29.8
|
601.68
|
28.2
|
.7804
|
564.26
|
68.4
|
735.58
|
1.2774
|
939.60
|
|
2010
|
2.8
|
68.4
|
735.58
|
30.0
|
623.62
|
28.7
|
.7789
|
588.95
|
69.8
|
767.90
|
1.2774
|
980.88
|
|
2011
|
2.8
|
69.8
|
767.90
|
30.7
|
647.98
|
29.2
|
.7755
|
612.18
|
71.2
|
801.13
|
1.2774
|
1,023.33
|
|
2012
|
2.8
|
71.2
|
801.13
|
31.2
|
673.20
|
29.5
|
.7716
|
635.48
|
73.0
|
835.25
|
1.2774
|
1,066.91
|
|
2013
|
2.8
|
73.0
|
835.25
|
31.8
|
699.45
|
30.1
|
.7705
|
661.58
|
74.7
|
870.31
|
1.2774
|
1,111.69
|
|
2014
|
2.8
|
74.7
|
870.31
|
32.5
|
727.40
|
30.7
|
.7686
|
687.65
|
76.5
|
906.59
|
1.2774
|
1,158.03
|
| 1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.