Short-Range Actuarial Projections
of the Old-Age, Survivors, and
Disability Insurance Program, 2005

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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos
and Richard B. Tucker

Table II.9.—Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions
(Calendar years 1975-2014)
Calendar year
Coverage rate 1
(percent)
Insured status
   
Fully  2
(percent)
Disability 3
(percent)
Disability
incidence rate 4
(per thousand)
Disability
termination rate 5
(per thousand)
1975
59.09
70.83
58.44
7.19
137.61
1976
59.51
71.19
58.68
6.60
136.85
1977
60.37
71.83
59.31
6.73
140.78
1978
62.02
72.29
61.32
5.84
148.01
1979
62.38
73.15
63.27
5.12
151.32
1980
62.05
73.52
64.04
4.82
145.38
1981
60.88
73.96
64.81
4.21
155.61
1982
59.63
73.97
65.31
3.69
175.90
1983
59.59
74.89
65.20
4.67
169.13
1984
61.49
74.61
65.53
4.30
141.43
1985
61.93
75.21
66.33
4.30
129.34
1986
62.69
75.34
66.97
4.27
125.67
1987
63.54
75.49
67.53
4.18
125.73
1988
64.90
75.74
68.33
4.08
124.65
1989
65.47
76.41
69.20
4.17
119.79
1990
65.48
76.45
69.89
4.48
114.88
1991
64.53
76.51
70.16
5.03
109.85
1992
64.30
76.83
70.28
5.82
106.02
1993
64.69
77.43
70.45
5.67
100.65
1994
65.20
77.38
70.68
5.52
96.89
1995
65.56
77.87
71.02
5.54
96.87
1996
65.93
78.11
71.29
5.24
91.83
1997
66.50
78.67
71.54
4.80
99.47
1998
67.11
78.99
71.95
4.83
85.48
1999
67.67
79.25
72.42
4.78
87.38
2000
68.10
79.44
72.81
4.66
88.62
2001
67.45
79.80
72.85
5.02
84.71
2002
66.39
80.31
72.47
5.30
84.74
2003
65.72
81.27
72.35
5.37
76.26
2004
65.89
81.93
72.48
5.35
74.62
2005
66.09
82.48
72.52
5.17
73.95
2006
66.30
82.99
72.54
4.97
74.32
2007
66.27
83.49
72.60
4.91
75.32
2008
66.21
84.02
72.70
4.99
77.79
2009
66.16
84.57
72.81
5.14
85.88
2010
66.09
85.10
72.90
5.06
85.52
2011
66.00
85.60
72.99
4.92
83.18
2012
65.78
86.11
73.12
4.95
88.27
2013
65.59
86.60
73.23
4.97
91.84
2014
65.41
87.05
73.34
5.00
91.21

1The coverage rate is the number of persons with any covered employment during the year as a percentage of the total population aged 15 or older at the end of the year.

2The fully insured rate is the number of fully insured persons aged 62 or older expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 62 or older, as of December 31.

3The disability insured rate is the number of disability insured persons expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 15 to normal retirement age, as of December 31.

4The disability incidence rate is the number of awards to disabled worker beneficiaries per thousand insured persons (not receiving benefits) under normal retirement age and is age-sex-adjusted based on the insured population as of January 1, 2000.

5The disability termination rate is the number of disabled worker terminations (due to all reasons including death, recovery, and attainment of normal retirement age) per thousand disabled worker beneficiaries.

Sources:

Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A7 and V.B7 for low cost and high cost alternatives, respectively.


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