VIG.html—Act. Study No.119

The following is a detailed example of the projection of the number of disabled worker beneficiaries by single-year-of-age. Similar projections are made for the short-range period for each gender and age 15-NRA. The illustration is based on the 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.

Disabled Worker Single-Year-of-Age Projection—Male Age 36 in 2005 (1969 Birth Cohort)

Fully insured on January 1: 2,083,400

Disability insured as a percent of fully insured on January 1: 0.922700

Disability insured on January 1 (average age 35½): 0.922700 x 2,083,400 = 1,922,354

Projected fully insured on December 31: 2,085,300

Projected disability insured as a percent of fully insured on December 31: 0.921056

Projected disability insured on December 31 (average age 36½): 0.921056 x 2,085,300 = 1,920,678

In force on January 1: 33,661

Projected award exposure: ½(1,922,354) + ½(1,920,678) - 33,661 = 1,887,855

Baseline incidence rate (male age 36 in 2004): 0.002760

Projected incidence factor ¹: 1.015580

Projected incidence rate (male age 36 in 2005): 0.002760 x 1.015580 = 0.002803

Projected awards: 0.002803 x 1,887,855 = 5,292

Projected termination exposure: 33,661 + ½(5,292) = 36,307

Baseline death rate (male age 36 in 2004): 0.017237

Projected death termination factor ¹: 0.969948

Projected death rate (male age 36 in 2005): 0.017237 x 0.969948 = 0.016719

Projected death terminations: 0.016719 x 36,307 = 607

Baseline recovery rate (male age 36 in 2004): 0.027208

Projected recovery termination factor ¹: 1.005219

Projected recovery rate (male age 36 in 2005): 0.027208 x 1.005219 = 0.027350

Projected recovery terminations: 0.027350 x 36,307 = 993

Baseline "all other" rate (male age 36 in 2004): 0.001380

Projected "all other" termination factor ¹: 1.276812

Projected "all other" rate (male age 36 in 2005): 0.001380 x 1.276812 = 0.001762

Projected "all other" terminations: 0.001762 x 36,307 = 64

Projected total terminations: 607 + 993 + 64 = 1,664

Projected in force on December 31: 33,661 + 5,292 - 1,664 = 37,289

Baseline withheld rate (male age 36 in 2004): 0.050501

Projected withheld factor: 0.997648

Projected withheld rate (male age 36 in 2005): (1.050501 x 0.997648) - 1 = 0.04803

Projected suspensions: 0.04803 x 37,289 = 1,791

Projected current-payment status on December 31: 37,289 - 1,791 = 35,498

Section footnotes--

¹ Projected incidence and termination factors by single-year-of-age are based on discussion found in section III.A.

Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2005
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119 by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker

Short-Range Actuarial Projectionsof the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2005

Section footnotes--

Short-Range Actuarial Projections
of the Old-Age, Survivors, and
Disability Insurance Program, 2005