2026 OASDI Trustees Report

E. CONCLUSION

The data and projections presented in this report include the Trustees’ best estimates of the future course of the population, the economy, and all aspects of the OASDI program under current law.

Based on the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, Social Security’s cost exceeds total income in 2026, as it has since 2021, and remains higher than income throughout the remainder of the 75‑year projection period.

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to have sufficient reserves to pay full benefits on time until 2032. The DI Trust Fund is projected to have sufficient reserves to pay full benefits throughout the 75-year projection period ending in 2100. Legislative action will be needed to prevent OASI reserve depletion. In the absence of such legislation, continuing income to the OASI Trust Fund at the time of reserve depletion would be sufficient to pay 78 percent of OASI benefits.

Social Security’s combined trust funds are projected to cover full payment of scheduled benefits on a timely basis until the trust fund reserves become depleted in 2034. Full payment of benefits until the combined reserves are depleted in 2034 implicitly assumes that the law will have been changed to permit the transfer of funds between OASI and DI as needed. At the time of reserve depletion, projected continuing income to the combined trust funds equals about 83 percent of the program cost. By 2100, continuing income equals about 65 percent of the program cost.

The actuarial deficit for the combined trust funds under the intermediate assumptions is 4.42 percent of taxable payroll for the 75-year period 2026‑2100, which is larger than the deficit of 3.82 percent for 2025-99 in last year’s report.

Lawmakers have a wide continuum of policy options that would close or reduce Social Security's long-term financing shortfall. Estimates for many options are available at www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions/. Broadly speaking, the approaches that lawmakers can take include:

•	increasing revenue from workers and employers by raising the tax rate or the maximum level of taxable earnings, or by dedicating revenue from other sources;

•	lowering benefits for some or all beneficiaries by changing certain program parameters; or

•	a combination of these approaches.

There are many variations on these options, including those that vary the timing, magnitude, and other specifics of the changes under consideration.

The Trustees recommend that lawmakers address the projected trust fund shortfalls in a timely way in order to phase in necessary changes gradually and give workers and beneficiaries time to adjust. Implementing changes sooner rather than later would allow more generations to share in the needed revenue increases or reductions in scheduled benefits.

For more information related to this report, see the following websites:

•	www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2026/

•	www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions/

•	www.cms.gov/OACT/TR/2026

•	home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/economic-policy/social-security-and-medicare-trustee-reports