2001 OASDI Trustees Report
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V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING
ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

The future income and outgo of the OASDI program will depend on many economic, demographic, and program-specific factors. Trust fund income will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the working population and the level and distribution of earnings. Similarly, trust fund outgo will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the beneficiary population and the general level of benefits.

Basic assumptions are developed for several of these factors based on analysis of historical trends and conditions, and on expected future conditions. These include fertility, mortality, immigration, marriage, divorce, productivity, inflation, average earnings, unemployment, retirement, and disability incidence and termination. Other factors are projected using methods that reflect historical and expected future relationships to the basic assumptions. These include total population, life expectancy, labor force, gross domestic product, interest rates, and a myriad of program-specific factors. It should be noted that all factors included in any consistent set of assumptions are interrelated directly or indirectly. It is also important to note that these interrelationships can and do change over time.

The assumptions and methods used in this report are reexamined each year in light of recent experience and new information about future conditions, and are revised if warranted.

Because projections of these factors and their interrelationships are inherently uncertain, estimates are shown in this report on the basis of three plausible sets of assumptions, designated as intermediate (alternative II), low cost (alternative I), and high cost (alternative III). The intermediate set, alternative II, represents the Board's best estimate of the future course of the population and the economy. In terms of the net effect on the status of the OASDI program, the low cost alternative I is the most optimistic, and the high cost alternative III is the most pessimistic.

Although these three sets of economic and demographic assumptions have been developed using the best available information, the resulting estimates should be interpreted with care. The estimates are not intended to be specific predictions of the future financial status of the OASDI program, but rather, they are intended to be indicators of the expected trend and likely range of future income and outgo, under a variety of plausible economic and demographic conditions.

The values for each of the economic, demographic and program-specific factors are assumed to move from recently experienced levels or trends, toward long-range ultimate values over the next 5 to 30 years. The ultimate values assumed after the first 5 to 30 years for both the economic and the demographic factors are intended to represent average experience or growth rates. Actual future values will exhibit fluctuations or cyclical patterns, as in the past.

The following sections discuss in abbreviated form the various assumptions and methods required to make the estimates of trust fund financial status which are the heart of this report.1 There are, of course, many interrelationships among these factors that make a sequential presentation somewhat misleading. Nevertheless, the following sections roughly follow the order used in building the trust fund estimates presented in chapter IV.

A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

The principal demographic assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and net immigration for the three alternatives are shown in table V.A1. The rationales for selecting these assumptions are discussed in the following three sections.

1. Fertility Assumptions

Historically, fertility rates in the United States have fluctuated widely. The total fertility rate2 decreased from 3.3 children per woman after World War I to 2.1 during the Great Depression, rose to 3.7 in 1957, and then fell to 1.7 in 1976. After 1976, the total fertility rate began to rise again, reaching a level of 2.07 for 1991. Since then, the total fertility rate has remained fairly stable.

These variations in fertility rates have resulted from changes in many factors, including social attitudes, economic conditions, and the use of birth-control methods. Future fertility rates may be expected to remain close to recent levels. The recent historical and projected trends in certain population characteristics are consistent with a continued relatively low fertility rate. These trends include the rising percentages of women who have never married, of women who are divorced, and of young women who are in the labor force. Based on consideration of these factors, ultimate total fertility rates of 2.2, 1.95, and 1.7 children per woman were selected for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. For each alternative, the total fertility rate is assumed to gradually trend into its ultimate level in 2025 starting from the estimated level for 1999 of 2.07.

2. Mortality Assumptions

Over the last century, death rates in the United States have declined substantially, but at varying rates. Historical rates used in preparing this report were calculated using data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) that are final for 1900-983. For ages 65 and over, Medicare final data for years 1968 through 1998 were used.

The total age-sex-adjusted death rate4 declined at an average rate of 1.12 percent per year between 1900 and 1998. Between 1968 and 1998, the period for which death rates are available by cause, the total age-sex-adjusted death rate (for all causes combined) declined at an average rate of 1.28 percent per year. However, since 1982, total age-sex-adjusted death rates have declined more slowly, at an average rate of 0.65 percent between 1982 and 1998.

Historical death rates have declined much more slowly for older ages than for the rest of the population. The age-sex-adjusted death rate for ages 65 and over declined at an average rate of 0.74 percent per year between 1900 and 1998. Between 1968 and 1998 the age-sex-adjusted death rate for these ages declined at an average annual rate of 1.07 percent. Since 1982 the age-sex-adjusted death rate for the aged has declined more slowly, at an average annual rate of 0.40 percent between 1982 and 1998.

Such reductions in death rates have resulted from many factors, including increased medical knowledge and availability of health-care services, and improvements in sanitation and nutrition. Based on consideration of the expected rate of future progress in these and other areas, three alternative sets of ultimate annual percentage reductions in central death rates by age, sex, and cause of death were selected for 2025 and later. The intermediate set, which is used for alternative II, is considered to be the most likely to occur. Except for those causes of death which primarily affect children and people of working age, the average annual percentage reductions used for alternative I are smaller than those for alternative II, while those used for alternative III are greater.

Between 1998 and 2025, the reductions in central death rates for alternative II are assumed to change gradually from the average annual reductions by age, sex, and cause of death observed between 1968 and 1998, to the ultimate annual percentage reductions by age, sex, and cause of death assumed for 2025 and later. The reductions in death rates under alternatives I and III are also assumed to change gradually by 2025 to their ultimate levels, but starting from levels which are, respectively, 50 or 150 percent of the average annual reductions observed between 1968 and 1998.

After adjustment for changes in the age-sex distribution of the population, the resulting total death rates are projected to decline at ultimate average annual rates of about 0.31 percent, 0.68 percent, and 1.20 percent between 2025 and 2075 for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. In keeping with the patterns observed in the historical data, future assumed rates of decline are greater for younger ages than for older ages, but to a lesser degree than in the past. Accordingly, age-sex-adjusted death rates for ages 65 and over are projected to decline at average annual rates of about 0.28 percent, 0.65 percent, and 1.16 percent between 2025 and 2075 for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively.

Projections of age-sex-adjusted death rates are presented in table V.A1 for the total (all ages), for under age 65, and for ages 65 and over. Projected death rates for the total, as shown in table V.A1, are slightly higher than those death rates in last year's report. Inclusion of additional data for 1998 resulted in the estimation of higher mortality rates overall for starting levels and slightly lower rates of reduction during the first 25 years of the projection period. The ultimate rates of decline in mortality, that are assumed to apply after the first 25 years of the projection period, are the same as those used in last year's report.

There is currently a wide range of opinion among experts on the likely rate of future decline in death rates. For example, the 1999 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods appointed by the Social Security Advisory Board expected ultimate rates of decline in mortality that are considerably higher than the rates of decline assumed for this report. Others believe that biological and social factors may slow future rates of decline in mortality. Evolving mortality trends and developments in health care and life style will be monitored closely to determine what further modifications to the assumed ultimate rates of decline in mortality may be warranted for future reports

3. Immigration Assumptions

Annual legal immigration increased after World War II to around 300,000 persons per year and remained around that level until shortly after 1960. With the Immigration Act of 1965 and other related changes, annual legal immigration increased to about 400,000 and remained fairly stable until 1977. Between 1977 and 1990, legal immigration once again increased averaging about 580,0005 per year. The Immigration Act of 1990, which took effect in fiscal year 1992, restructured the immigration categories and increased significantly the number of immigrants who may legally enter the United States.

For calendar year 1999, legal immigration is estimated to be 660,000 persons. Net legal immigration (after considering emigration) is estimated to be 495,000 persons and net other-than-legal immigration is estimated to be 300,000 persons. For calendar year 2000, net legal immigration is estimated to be 540,000 persons and net other-than-legal is estimated to be 300,000 persons.

The total level of net immigration (legal and other-than-legal, combined) under the intermediate projection is assumed to be 840,000 persons in 2001 and 900,000 persons6 for each year after 2001. For the low cost assumptions, net immigration is assumed to rise from a level of 1,050,000 persons in 2001 to an ultimate level of 1,210,000 persons7 for each year 2003 and later. Under the high cost assumption, net immigration for 2001 and later is assumed to be 655,000 persons8 per year.

The levels of net immigration during 2000 to 2002 are slightly different from those used in last year's report. In addition, the age-sex distribution of annual legal emigration is revised from the distribution used in last year's report in order to reflect more recent data. This revision results in an increase of almost 2 years in the assumed average age of emigrants from the Social Security area. The ultimate levels of net immigration are the same as those assumed in last year's report.

Table V.A1.- Principal Demographic Assumptions, Calendar Years 1940-2075 
Calendar year
Total
fertility
rate1
Age-sex-adjusted death rate 2
per 100,000, by age:

Net immigration
Total
Under 65
65 and over
Legal3
Other-
than-legal4
Historical data:
1940
2.23
1,672.6
656.1
8,791.1



1945
2.42
1,488.6
584.4
7,820.1



1950
3.03
1,339.9
480.0
7,361.7

186,890

1955
3.50
1,243.0
424.7
6,973.6

178,343

1960
3.61
1,237.9
418.8
6,973.1

199,049

1965
2.88
1,210.8
411.7
6,806.6

222,523

1970
2.43
1,138.4
403.7
6,283.5

279,995

1975
1.77
1,020.9
352.5
5,701.7

289,646

1980
1.85
961.1
316.8
5,473.1

397,979

1985
1.84
912.3
289.9
5,270.4

427,507








1990
2.07
865.8
277.5
4,985.5

492,083

1991
2.07
854.8
275.2
4,913.5

528,004

1992
2.06
843.7
269.7
4,862.5

607,976

1993
2.04
863.5
273.3
4,996.0

660,011

1994
2.04
852.4
271.2
4,922.3

598,796

1995
2.02
850.1
268.3
4,923.8

537,146

1996
2.03
837.1
257.8
4,894.0

683,449

1997
2.04
822.5
246.1
4,858.9

596,873

1998
2.06
816.1
240.0
4,850.3

494,642

1999 5
2.07
809.8
237.8
4,815.3

495,000
300,000
2000 5
2.07
803.0
233.8
4,788.8

540,000
300,000
Intermediate:
2005
2.04
773.7
215.5
4,682.9

600,000
300,000
2010
2.02
751.1
199.9
4,611.1

600,000
300,000
2015
2.00
728.5
187.5
4,516.8

600,000
300,000
2020
1.97
701.7
178.3
4,366.8

600,000
300,000
2025
1.95
674.8
170.4
4,206.7

600,000
300,000
2030
1.95
649.4
163.2
4,054.1

600,000
300,000
2035
1.95
625.6
156.4
3,911.1

600,000
300,000
2040
1.95
603.3
150.1
3,776.9

600,000
300,000
2045
1.95
582.3
144.1
3,650.7

600,000
300,000
2050
1.95
562.6
138.6
3,532.1

600,000
300,000
2055
1.95
544.1
133.3
3,420.3

600,000
300,000
2060
1.95
526.6
128.4
3,314.8

600,000
300,000
2065
1.95
510.1
123.8
3,215.1

600,000
300,000
2070
1.95
494.5
119.4
3,120.9

600,000
300,000
2075
1.95
479.7
115.3
3,031.7

600,000
300,000
Low Cost:
2005
2.09
800.8
222.4
4,851.6

760,000
450,000
2010
2.12
804.0
214.4
4,933.2

760,000
450,000
2015
2.14
801.2
207.1
4,961.9

760,000
450,000
2020
2.17
789.3
200.9
4,909.5

760,000
450,000
2025
2.20
775.5
195.5
4,836.6

760,000
450,000
2030
2.20
762.0
190.5
4,763.6

760,000
450,000
2035
2.20
749.1
185.8
4,693.3

760,000
450,000
2040
2.20
736.7
181.3
4,625.5

760,000
450,000
2045
2.20
724.8
177.1
4,560.1

760,000
450,000
2050
2.20
713.4
173.1
4,497.1

760,000
450,000
2055
2.20
702.5
169.3
4,436.4

760,000
450,000
2060
2.20
692.0
165.6
4,377.7

760,000
450,000
2065
2.20
681.8
162.1
4,321.2

760,000
450,000
2070
2.20
672.1
158.8
4,266.6

760,000
450,000
2075
2.20
662.8
155.7
4,213.8

760,000
450,000
High Cost:
2005
1.99
747.5
208.6
4,521.2

455,000
200,000
2010
1.92
704.1
188.5
4,314.9

455,000
200,000
2015
1.85
663.7
172.1
4,106.0

455,000
200,000
2020
1.78
621.0
159.0
3,856.2

455,000
200,000
2025
1.70
579.9
147.3
3,609.4

455,000
200,000
2030
1.70
542.2
136.8
3,381.5

455,000
200,000
2035
1.70
507.8
127.2
3,173.1

455,000
200,000
2040
1.70
476.3
118.4
2,982.3

455,000
200,000
2045
1.70
447.4
110.4
2,807.4

455,000
200,000
2050
1.70
421.0
103.1
2,646.9

455,000
200,000
2055
1.70
396.7
96.4
2,499.4

455,000
200,000
2060
1.70
374.3
90.2
2,363.7

455,000
200,000
2065
1.70
353.7
84.5
2,238.6

455,000
200,000
2070
1.70
334.7
79.3
2,123.2

455,000
200,000
2075
1.70
317.2
74.5
2,016.6

455,000
200,000

1 The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2025.

2 The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 1990, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

3 Historical estimates of net legal immigration assume a 25 percent reduction in legal immigration due to legal emigration. Estimates do not include persons legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

4 Other-than-legal net immigration is estimated to average between 225,000 and 300,000 persons per year over the period 1980-98.

5 Preliminary or estimated.

4. Total Population Estimates

Combining the above assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and net immigration with data on marriage and divorce rates based on data from NCHS, projections were made of the population in the Social Security area by age, sex, and marital status as of January 1 of each year 2000 through 2080. The starting Social Security area population for January 1, 1999, uses as a basis the Census Bureau's estimate of the residents of the 50 states and D.C., and Armed Forces overseas. This base estimate is adjusted for net census undercount and increased for other U.S. citizens living abroad (including residents of U.S. territories) and for non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social Security benefits. This starting population was then projected using assumed rates of birth, death, marriage and divorce, and assumed levels of migration.

Table V.A2 shows the projected population as of July 1 by broad age group, for the three alternatives. Also shown are tabulated aged and total dependency ratios (see table footnotes for definitions).

Table V.A2.- Social Security Area Population as of July 1 and Dependency Ratios,
Calendar Years 1950-2075  
Calendar year
Population (in thousands)

Dependency ratio
Under 20
20-64
65 and
over
Total
Aged1
Total2
Historical data:
1950
53,895
92,739
12,752
159,386

0.138
0.719
1960
72,989
99,842
17,250
190,081

.173
.904
1965
80,134
104,833
19,092
204,059

.182
.947
1970
80,685
113,194
20,921
214,800

.185
.898
1975
78,438
122,862
23,266
224,566

.189
.828
1980
74,570
134,431
26,149
235,150

.195
.749
1985
73,248
144,897
29,065
247,210

.201
.706
1990
75,171
152,968
32,026
260,166

.209
.701
1995
79,234
159,817
34,470
273,522

.216
.711
2000
81,909
168,215
35,449
285,573

.211
.698
Intermediate:
2005
83,050
177,702
36,624
297,376

.206
.673
2010
83,529
186,005
39,508
309,042

.212
.661
2015
83,903
191,422
45,341
320,666

.237
.675
2020
85,157
193,966
52,761
331,884

.272
.711
2025
86,423
194,350
61,384
342,158

.316
.761
2030
87,351
195,130
68,672
351,153
.352
.800
2035
87,863
198,438
72,587
358,888

.366
.809
2040
88,344
203,050
74,131
365,526

.365
.800
2045
89,103
207,049
75,223
371,374

.363
.794
2050
90,070
209,618
77,108
376,796

.368
.798
2055
90,975
211,419
79,784
382,179

.377
.808
2060
91,729
212,867
83,159
387,755

.391
.822
2065
92,397
215,068
86,041
393,506

.400
.830
2070
93,101
217,430
88,653
399,184

.408
.836
2075
93,884
219,593
91,098
404,575

.415
.842
Low Cost:
2005
83,750
178,485
36,511
298,746

.205
.674
2010
85,513
187,806
39,077
312,396

.208
.663
2015
87,742
194,272
44,459
326,473

.229
.680
2020
91,461
197,946
51,324
340,731

.259
.721
2025
95,631
199,811
59,233
354,674

.296
.775
2030
99,500
202,641
65,636
367,777

.324
.815
2035
102,801
208,564
68,603
379,968

.329
.822
2040
106,032
216,331
69,307
391,670

.320
.811
2045
109,517
224,040
69,832
403,389

.312
.801
2050
113,340
230,775
71,414
415,529

.309
.801
2055
117,307
237,145
73,910
428,362

.312
.806
2060
121,154
243,736
77,065
441,955

.316
.813
2065
124,877
251,693
79,600
456,170

.316
.812
2070
128,643
260,201
81,931
470,775

.315
.809
2075
132,575
268,632
84,432
485,638

.314
.808
High Cost:
2005
82,408
177,040
36,735
296,182

0.207
0.673
2010
81,718
184,540
39,928
306,186

.216
.659
2015
80,366
189,120
46,206
315,692

.244
.669
2020
79,337
190,780
54,217
324,335

.284
.700
2025
77,983
189,956
63,646
331,584

.335
.746
2030
76,348
188,993
71,973
337,314

.381
.785
2035
74,555
190,026
77,052
341,633

.405
.798
2040
72,881
191,872
79,723
344,476

.416
.795
2045
71,630
192,598
81,736
345,964

.424
.796
2050
70,580
191,511
84,309
346,401

.440
.809
2055
69,379
189,356
87,519
346,254

.462
.829
2060
68,081
186,416
91,408
345,906

.490
.856
2065
66,815
183,790
94,877
345,482

.516
.880
2070
65,671
181,151
97,961
344,783

.541
.903
2075
64,638
178,398
100,520
343,557

.563
.926

1 Population aged 65 and over, divided by population aged 20-64.

2 Sum of population aged 65 and over, and population under age 20, divided by population aged 20-64.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

5. Life Expectancy Estimates

Life expectancy, or average remaining number of years expected prior to death, is a useful analytical concept. Life expectancy is calculated in two different forms, for two separate purposes.

Period life expectancy is calculated for a given year using the actual or expected death rates at each age for that year. It is a useful summary statistic for illustrating the overall level of the death rates experienced in a single year. It is thus closely related to the age-sex-adjusted death rate that is discussed in section V.A.2. Period life expectancy for a particular year may be viewed as the expected remaining life at a selected age only if it is assumed that there is no change in death rates after that year.

Cohort life expectancy truly answers the question "What is the expected average remaining lifetime for an individual at a selected age in a given year?" Cohort life expectancies are calculated using death rates not from a single year, but from the series of years in which the individual will actually reach each succeeding age if he or she survives.

Tables V.A3 and V.A4 present historical and projected life expectancies calculated on both period and cohort bases. Cohort life expectancies are somewhat greater than period life expectancies for the same year. This is because death rates for any given age tend to decline as time passes and the cohort grows older.

Table V.A3.- Period Life Expectancies1
Calendar
year
Low Cost

Intermediate

High Cost
At birth

At age 65
At birth

At age 65
At birth

At age 65
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Historical data:
1940






61.4
65.7

11.9
13.4






1945






62.9
68.4

12.6
14.4






1950






65.6
71.1

12.8
15.1






1955





66.7
72.8

13.1
15.6






1960






66.7
73.2

12.9
15.9






1965






66.8
73.8

12.9
16.3






1970






67.2
74.9

13.1
17.1






1975






68.7
76.6

13.7
18.0






1980






69.9
77.5

14.0
18.4






1985






71.1
78.2

14.4
18.6























1990






71.8
78.9

15.0
19.0






1991






71.9
79.0

15.1
19.1






1992






72.2
79.2

15.2
19.2






1993






72.0
78.9

15.1
19.0






1994






72.2
79.0

15.3
19.0






1995






72.4
79.0

15.3
19.0






1996






72.8
79.1

15.4
19.0






1997






73.3
79.3

15.5
19.1






1998






73.5
79.3

15.6
19.0






1999 2






73.6
79.4

15.7
19.1






2000 2






73.8
79.5

15.7
19.1






Projected:
2005
74.2
79.6

15.8
19.0

74.6
80.0

16.0
19.3

75.0
80.4

16.3
19.6
2010
74.5
79.5

15.8
18.8

75.3
80.3

16.3
19.3

76.0
81.1

16.7
19.9
2015
74.8
79.6

15.8
18.7

75.9
80.7

16.5
19.5

76.9
81.7

17.1
20.3
2020
75.0
79.8

15.9
18.8

76.4
81.1

16.8
19.7

77.7
82.4

17.7
20.8
2025
75.3
80.0

16.1
18.9

76.9
81.5

17.0
20.0

78.5
83.1

18.2
21.3
2030
75.5
80.2

16.2
19.0

77.3
81.9

17.3
20.3

79.3
83.8

18.7
21.8
2035
75.8
80.4

16.3
19.1

77.8
82.3

17.6
20.6

80.1
84.4

19.3
22.3
2040
76.0
80.6

16.4
19.2

78.2
82.6

17.9
20.8

80.8
85.1

19.8
22.8
2045
76.2
80.7

16.5
19.3

78.6
83.0

18.2
21.1

81.5
85.7

20.3
23.3
2050
76.4
80.9

16.6
19.4

79.0
83.3

18.4
21.4

82.2
86.3

20.7
23.7
2055
76.7
81.1

16.7
19.5

79.4
83.7

18.7
21.6

82.8
86.9

21.2
24.2
2060
76.9
81.2

16.8
19.6

79.8
84.0

18.9
21.9

83.5
87.4

21.7
24.6
2065
77.0
81.4

16.9
19.7

80.2
84.3

19.2
22.1

84.1
88.0

22.1
25.0
2070
77.2
81.6

17.0
19.8

80.5
84.7

19.4
22.4

84.7
88.5

22.6
25.5
2075
77.4
81.7

17.1
19.9

80.9
85.0

19.7
22.6

85.2
89.0

23.0
25.9

1 The period life expectancy at a given age for a given year represents the average number of years of life remaining if a group of persons at that age were to experience the mortality rates for that year over the course of their remaining life.

2 Preliminary or estimated.

Table V.A4.- Cohort Life Expectancies1
Calendar
year
Low Cost

Intermediate

High Cost
At birth

At age 65 2
At birth

At age 65 2
At birth

At age 65 2
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
1940
68.7
75.0

12.7
14.7

69.2
75.8

12.7
14.7

69.8
76.6

12.7
14.7
1945
70.1
76.3

13.0
15.4

70.8
77.2

13.0
15.4

71.7
78.3

13.0
15.4
1950
71.1
77.2

13.1
16.2

72.1
78.4

13.1
16.2

73.2
79.7

13.1
16.2
1955
71.7
77.7

13.1
16.7

72.9
79.1

13.1
16.7

74.3
80.7

13.1
16.7
1960
72.2
78.0

13.2
17.4

73.6
79.6

13.2
17.4

75.3
81.5

13.2
17.4
1965
72.8
78.4

13.5
18.0

74.5
80.2

13.5
18.0

76.5
82.4

13.5
18.0
1970
73.6
79.0

13.8
18.5

75.5
81.0

13.8
18.6

77.9
83.5

13.8
18.6
1975
74.3
79.5

14.2
18.8

76.4
81.7

14.3
18.8

79.1
84.6

14.3
18.8
1980
74.9
79.9

14.7
18.8

77.3
82.4

14.7
18.9

80.3
85.5

14.8
19.0
1985
75.3
80.3

15.1
18.9

77.9
82.9

15.2
19.1

81.3
86.3

15.3
19.2

















1990
75.7
80.6

15.4
18.9

78.5
83.4

15.6
19.2

82.2
87.1

15.8
19.6
1991
75.8
80.6

15.4
18.9

78.7
83.5

15.6
19.3

82.4
87.2

15.9
19.6
1992
75.9
80.7

15.5
18.9

78.8
83.6

15.7
19.3

82.6
87.4

15.9
19.7
1993
75.9
80.7

15.5
18.9

78.9
83.7

15.8
19.3

82.8
87.5

16.0
19.8
1994
76.0
80.8

15.6
18.9

79.0
83.8

15.8
19.4

82.9
87.7

16.1
19.8
1995
76.1
80.8

15.6
18.9

79.1
83.9

15.9
19.4

83.1
87.8

16.2
19.9
1996
76.2
80.9

15.6
18.9

79.3
84.0

16.0
19.4

83.3
88.0

16.3
20.0
1997
76.2
80.9

15.7
18.9

79.3
84.1

16.0
19.5

83.5
88.1

16.5
20.1
1998
76.3
81.0

15.7
18.9

79.4
84.1

16.1
19.5

83.6
88.2

16.6
20.2
1999
76.3
81.0

15.7
18.9

79.5
84.2

16.2
19.5

83.8
88.4

16.7
20.2
2000
76.4
81.1

15.7
18.8

79.6
84.3

16.2
19.6

83.9
88.5

16.8
20.3

















2005
76.6
81.3

15.8
18.8

80.1
84.7

16.5
19.8

84.8
89.2

17.3
20.8
2010
76.9
81.4

16.0
18.9

80.6
85.1

16.9
20.0

85.5
89.8

17.9
21.2
2015
77.1
81.6

16.1
19.0

81.0
85.4

17.2
20.3

86.2
90.4

18.4
21.8
2020
77.3
81.8

16.2
19.1

81.4
85.7

17.5
20.6

86.8
90.9

19.0
22.3
2025
77.5
82.0

16.3
19.2

81.7
86.1

17.8
20.8

87.4
91.4

19.6
22.8
2030
77.7
82.1

16.4
19.3

82.1
86.4

18.0
21.1

88.0
91.9

20.1
23.4
2035
77.9
82.3

16.5
19.4

82.4
86.6

18.3
21.4

88.5
92.4

20.6
23.9
2040
78.1
82.4

16.6
19.5

82.8
86.9

18.6
21.7

89.0
92.9

21.2
24.3
2045
78.3
82.5

16.7
19.6

83.1
87.2

18.9
21.9

89.6
93.3

21.7
24.8
2050
78.4
82.7

16.8
19.7

83.4
87.5

19.1
22.2

90.1
93.7

22.2
25.3
2055
78.6
82.8

16.9
19.8

83.7
87.7

19.4
22.4

90.6
94.2

22.6
25.7
2060
78.7
82.9

17.0
19.9

84.0
88.0

19.6
22.7

91.0
94.6

23.1
26.2
2065
78.9
83.0

17.1
20.0

84.3
88.2

19.9
22.9

91.5
95.0

23.6
26.6
2070
79.0
83.2

17.2
20.1

84.6
88.5

20.1
23.1

91.9
95.4

24.0
27.0
2075
79.2
83.3

17.3
20.2

84.9
88.7

20.3
23.4

92.4
95.8

24.5
27.4

1 The cohort life expectancy at a given age for a given year represents the average number of years of life remaining if a group of persons at that age were to experience the mortality rates for the series of years in which they reach each succeeding age.

2 Age 65 cohort life expectancies are based on actual data prior to 1970.


1 Further details about the assumptions, methods, and actuarial estimates are contained in Actuarial Studies published by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration. A complete list of available studies may be found on the Internet at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/actstud.html. To obtain copies of such Studies, or of this report, submit a request via our Internet request form; or write to: Office of the Chief Actuary, 700 Altmeyer Building, 6401 Security Boulevard, Baltimore, MD 21235; or call (410) 965-3015. This entire report, along with supplemental year-by-year tables, may also be found at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR01/index.html.

2 Defined to be the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. A rate of 2.1 would ultimately result in a nearly constant population if net immigration were zero and if death rates were constant.

3 Including rates by cause of death starting in 1968.

4 Calculated here as the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 1990, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex for the selected year.

5 Excludes those persons admitted under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

6 600,000 net legal immigrants plus 300,000 net other-than-legal immigrants.

7 760,000 net legal immigrants plus 450,000 net other-than-legal immigrants.

8 455,000 net legal immigrants plus 200,000 net other-than-legal immigrants.


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