2007 OASDI Trustees Report

Contents Previous Next List of Tables List of Figures Index

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING
ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

The future income and cost of the OASDI program will depend on many demographic, economic, and program-specific factors. Trust fund income will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the working population and the level and distribution of earnings. Similarly, program cost will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the beneficiary population and the general level of benefits.

Basic assumptions are developed for several of these factors based on analysis of historical trends and conditions, and on expected future conditions. These factors include fertility, mortality, immigration, marriage, divorce, productivity, inflation, average earnings, unemployment, retirement, and disability incidence and termination. Other factors are projected using methods that reflect historical and expected future relationships to the basic assumptions. These include total population, life expectancy, labor force, gross domestic product, interest rates, and many program-specific factors. It should be noted that all factors included in any consistent set of assumptions are interrelated directly or indirectly. It is also important to note that these interrelationships can and do change over time.

The assumptions and methods used in this report are reexamined each year in light of recent experience and new information about future conditions, and are revised if warranted.

Because projections of these factors and their interrelationships are inherently uncertain, a range of estimates is shown in this report on the basis of three sets of assumptions, designated as intermediate (alternative II), low cost (alternative I), and high cost (alternative III). The intermediate set represents the Board's best estimate of the future course of the population and the economy. In terms of the net effect on the status of the OASDI program, the low cost is the most optimistic, and the high cost is the most pessimistic. The low and high cost sets of assumptions reflect significant potential changes in the interrelationship among factors, as well as changes in the values for individual factors. The probability is very low that all the assumptions and interactions would differ in the same direction from those expected. Outcomes with overall cost as low as (or lower than) the low cost scenario or as high as (or higher than) the high cost scenario are also very low probability.

Although these three sets of demographic and economic assumptions have been developed to provide a broad range of possible outcomes, the resulting estimates should be interpreted with care. The estimates are not intended to be specific predictions of the future financial status of the OASDI program, but rather, they are intended to be indicators of the expected trend and a reasonable range of future income and cost, under a variety of plausible demographic and economic conditions.

The values for each of the demographic, economic, and program-specific factors are assumed to move from recently experienced levels or trends, toward long-range ultimate values generally over the next 2 to 25 years. Ultimate values or trends reached by the end of the 75-year long-range period are generally maintained at these levels or trends for extrapolations beyond 75 years. One exception is for real wage growth, as described in section IV.B.5.

The ultimate values assumed after the first 2 to 25 years (and through the end of the 75-year long-range period) for both the demographic and the economic factors are intended to represent average annual experience or growth rates. Actual future values will exhibit fluctuations or cyclical patterns, as in the past.

The following sections discuss in abbreviated form the various assumptions and methods required to make the estimates of trust fund financial status which are the heart of this report.1 There are, of course, many interrelationships among these factors that make a sequential presentation somewhat misleading. Nevertheless, the following sections roughly follow the order used in building the trust fund estimates presented in chapter IV.

A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

The principal demographic assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and net immigration for the three alternatives are shown in table V.A1. The rationales for selecting these assumptions are discussed in the following three sections.

1. Fertility Assumptions

Fertility (birth rate) assumptions are developed for women by single year of age, from 14 to 49. They are applied to the total number of women in the population at each age, for all marital statuses.

Historically, fertility rates in the United States have fluctuated widely. The total fertility rate2 decreased from 3.3 children per woman after World War I to 2.1 during the Great Depression, rose to 3.7 in 1957, and then fell to 1.7 in 1976. After 1976, the total fertility rate began to rise again, reaching a level of 2.07 for 1990. Since then, the total fertility rate has remained fairly stable, around 2.0 children per woman.

These variations in fertility rates have resulted from changes in many factors, including social attitudes, economic conditions, and the use of birth-control methods. Future fertility rates may be expected to remain close to recent levels. The recent historical and projected trends in certain population characteristics, such as the rising percentages of women who have never married, of women who are divorced, and of young women who are in the labor force, are consistent with a continued relatively low fertility rate. Based on consideration of these factors, ultimate total fertility rates of 2.3, 2.0 and 1.7 children per woman were selected for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively. For each alternative, the total fertility rate is assumed to gradually trend from the estimated level of 2.05 for 2004, reaching the selected ultimate level for 2031 and later.

Assumed total fertility rates are very similar to those in last year's report. Incorporating additional birth data and population data for 2004 yields a slightly higher starting level than the level assumed in last year's report. This higher starting level results in slightly higher total fertility rates between 2004 and the year the ultimate levels are reached (2031).

2. Mortality Assumptions

Mortality (death rate) assumptions are developed by single year of age, sex, and cause of death.

Death rates in the United States since 1900 have declined substantially, but at varying rates. Historical rates (for years 1900-2003) used in preparing this report were calculated for ages below 65 (and for all ages prior to 1968) using data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).3 For ages 65 and over, Medicare final data were used for years 1968 through 2003. Also used are death rates by cause of death at all ages which are produced by the NCHS for years 1979-2003.

The total age-sex-adjusted death rate4 declined at an average rate5 of 1.06 percent per year between 1900 and 2003. Between 1979 and 2003, the period for which death rates are analyzed by cause, the total age-sex-adjusted death rate (for all causes combined) declined at an average rate of 0.74 percent per year.

Historical death rates have declined more slowly for older ages than for the rest of the population. The age-sex-adjusted death rate for ages 65 and over declined at an average rate of 0.73 percent per year between 1900 and 2003. Between 1979 and 2003 the age-sex-adjusted death rate for these ages declined at an average annual rate of 0.52 percent.

Reductions in death rates have resulted from many factors, including increased medical knowledge and availability of health-care services, and improvements in sanitation and nutrition. Based on consideration of the expected rate of future progress in these and other areas, three alternative sets of ultimate annual percentage reductions in central death rates by age, sex, and cause of death were selected for 2031 and later. The intermediate set, which is used for alternative II, is considered to be the most likely to occur. The average annual percentage reductions used for alternative I are generally smaller than those for alternative II, while those used for alternative III are generally greater. These three sets of ultimate annual percentage reductions are unchanged from those used in last year's report.

After 2003, the reductions in central death rates for alternative II are assumed to change rapidly from the average annual reductions by age, sex, and cause of death observed between 1983 and 2003, to the ultimate annual percentage reductions by age, sex, and cause of death assumed for 2031 and later. The reductions in death rates under alternatives I and III are also assumed to change rapidly to their ultimate levels, but start from levels which are, respectively, 50 or 150 percent of the average annual reductions observed between 1983 and 2003.

Projections of age-sex-adjusted death rates are presented in table V.A1 for the total (all ages), for under age 65, and for ages 65 and over. Under the intermediate assumptions, these projected age-sex-adjusted death rates are slightly lower than the death rates in last year's report. This is because incorporating new data for 2003 results in age-sex-adjusted death rates throughout the projection period that are slightly lower than those in last year's report.

After adjustment for changes in the age-sex distribution of the population, the resulting total death rates are projected to decline at ultimate average annual rates of about 0.33 percent, 0.70 percent, and 1.21 percent between 2031 and 2081 for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. In keeping with the patterns observed in the historical data, future rates of decline are assumed to be greater for younger ages than for older ages, but to a substantially lesser degree than in the past. Accordingly, age-sex-adjusted death rates for ages 65 and over are projected to decline at average annual rates of about 0.28 percent, 0.66 percent, and 1.15 percent between 2031 and 2081 for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively.

There is a wide range of opinion among experts on the likely rate of future decline in death rates. For example, the 2003 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods appointed by the Social Security Advisory Board believed that ultimate rates of decline in mortality will be higher than the rates of decline assumed for the intermediate projections in this report. Others believe that biological and social factors may slow future rates of decline in mortality. Evolving mortality trends and developments in health care and life style will be closely monitored to determine what further modifications to the assumed ultimate rates of decline in mortality may be warranted for future reports.

3. Immigration Assumptions

Legal immigration6 increased after World War II to around 300,000 persons per year and remained around that level until shortly after 1960. With the Immigration Act of 1965 and other related changes, annual legal immigration increased to about 400,000 and remained fairly stable until 1977. Between 1977 and 1990, legal immigration once again increased, averaging about 580,0007 per year. The Immigration Act of 1990, which took effect in fiscal year 1992, restructured the immigration categories and increased significantly the number of immigrants who may legally enter the United States. Legal immigration averaged about 860,000 2 persons per year during the period 1992 through 2005. The number of legal immigrants in 2005 is estimated to be about 1,122,000 persons.

For 2005, net legal immigration (after considering emigration) is estimated to be about 842,000 persons. Net other immigration is estimated to be 400,000 persons. For 2006, net legal immigration is estimated to be 675,000 for the intermediate, 720,000 for low cost and 630,000 for the high cost assumptions. Net other immigration for 2006 is estimated to be 400,000 persons for all three assumptions.

The ultimate annual net immigration assumptions are unchanged from those in last year's report. After 2006, the annual number of net legal immigrants is projected to reach the ultimate level in 2008. The ultimate level of annual net other immigrants is projected to be reached in 2027 under the intermediate and low cost assumptions and in 2017 under the high cost assumptions.

The total level of net immigration (legal and other, combined) under the intermediate projection is assumed to decrease from a level of 1,075,000 persons in 2007 to an ultimate level of 900,000 persons8 for each year after 2026. For the low cost assumptions, net immigration is assumed to be 1,270,000 persons in 2007, increase to a level of 1,400,000 persons for each year 2008-16, and then decrease to an ultimate level in 2027 of 1,300,000 persons9. Under the high cost assumptions, net immigration is assumed to decrease from a level of 810,000 persons in 2007 to an ultimate level in 2017 of 672,500 persons10.

There is a very wide range of opinion about the future course of immigration for the United States. Some, like the 2003 Technical Panel mentioned in the previous section, believe that immigration will increase substantially in the future. Others believe that potential immigrants may be attracted to other countries or that the U.S. borders could be tightened in the future.

Table V.A1.-Principal Demographic Assumptions, Calendar Years 1940-2085 
Calendar year
Total
fertility
rate1
 
Age-sex-adjusted death rate 2
per 100,000, by age
 
Net immigration
 
Total
Under 65
65 and over
Legal 3
Other 4
Historical data:
 
1940
2.23
 
1,779.1
673.0
9,569.0
 
45,950
 
 
1945
2.42
 
1,586.6
601.8
8,522.4
 
55,057
 
 
1950
3.03
 
1,435.6
499.4
8,028.3
 
170,574
 
 
1955
3.50
 
1,334.2
442.8
7,612.2
 
209,766
 
 
1960
3.61
 
1,330.9
436.9
7,626.7
 
201,261
 
 
1965
2.88
 
1,304.6
430.0
7,464.0
 
232,394
 
 
1970
2.43
 
1,224.3
422.6
6,870.7
 
278,915
 
 
1975
1.77
 
1,099.0
369.5
6,236.4
 
294,292
 
 
1980
1.82
 
1,035.9
331.9
5,993.6
 
410,329
375,000
 
1985
1.84
 
984.2
303.6
5,777.6
 
433,443
375,000
 
1990
2.07
 
931.2
289.4
5,451.1
 
501,041
550,000
                   
 
1991
2.06
 
918.8
286.2
5,373.5
 
547,971
550,000
 
1992
2.04
 
906.2
280.2
5,315.3
 
620,965
550,000
 
1993
2.02
 
928.0
283.1
5,470.0
 
644,685
550,000
 
1994
2.00
 
916.2
280.5
5,392.7
 
583,364
550,000
 
1995
1.98
 
913.9
277.3
5,397.5
 
574,507
550,000
 
1996
1.98
 
900.4
266.1
5,367.2
 
664,579
550,000
 
1997
1.97
 
885.1
253.6
5,332.5
 
571,243
550,000
 
1998
2.00
 
878.3
246.9
5,325.2
 
488,303
550,000
 
1999
2.01
 
884.3
245.0
5,386.6
 
520,364
550,000
 
2000
2.06
 
875.7
243.4
5,328.3
 
671,580
550,000
 
2001
2.03
 
867.4
243.6
5,260.7
 
794,240
550,000
 
2002
2.02
 
863.6
242.7
5,236.6
 
727,781
550,000
 
2003
2.05
 
851.3
241.2
5,148.2
 
575,326
550,000
 
20045/
2.05
 
852.2
232.8
5,214.4
 
749,237
400,000
 
20055/
2.04
 
847.8
230.0
5,199.0
 
841,769
400,000
 
20065/
2.04
 
843.7
227.2
5,185.2
 
675,000
400,000
Intermediate:
 
2010
2.03
 
825.3
217.3
5,106.9
 
600,000
400,000
 
2015
2.03
 
795.7
206.6
4,944.5
 
600,000
400,000
 
2020
2.02
 
764.5
196.9
4,762.2
 
600,000
350,000
 
2025
2.01
 
734.2
187.8
4,581.7
 
600,000
350,000
 
2030
2.00
 
705.4
179.4
4,409.8
 
600,000
300,000
 
2035
2.00
 
678.3
171.5
4,247.3
 
600,000
300,000
 
2040
2.00
 
652.8
164.0
4,095.1
 
600,000
300,000
 
2045
2.00
 
629.0
157.1
3,952.5
 
600,000
300,000
 
2050
2.00
 
606.6
150.5
3,818.6
 
600,000
300,000
 
2055
2.00
 
585.5
144.3
3,692.6
 
600,000
300,000
 
2060
2.00
 
565.7
138.5
3,574.1
 
600,000
300,000
 
2065
2.00
 
547.0
133.0
3,462.4
 
600,000
300,000
 
2070
2.00
 
529.3
127.8
3,356.9
 
600,000
300,000
 
2075
2.00
 
512.6
122.9
3,257.3
 
600,000
300,000
 
2080
2.00
 
496.8
118.2
3,163.0
 
600,000
300,000
 
2085
2.00
 
481.8
113.8
3,073.6
 
600,000
300,000
Low Cost:
 
2010
2.08
 
845.5
223.1
5,229.0
 
850,000
550,000
 
2015
2.13
 
836.8
217.4
5,198.5
 
850,000
550,000
 
2020
2.19
 
823.5
211.7
5,132.2
 
850,000
500,000
 
2025
2.24
 
809.1
206.1
5,055.7
 
850,000
500,000
 
2030
2.29
 
794.7
200.7
4,977.9
 
850,000
450,000
 
2035
2.30
 
780.6
195.6
4,900.8
 
850,000
450,000
 
2040
2.30
 
767.0
190.6
4,826.4
 
850,000
450,000
 
2045
2.30
 
753.9
185.9
4,754.7
 
850,000
450,000
 
2050
2.30
 
741.4
181.3
4,685.5
 
850,000
450,000
 
2055
2.30
 
729.2
177.0
4,618.7
 
850,000
450,000
 
2060
2.30
 
717.5
172.8
4,554.2
 
850,000
450,000
 
2065
2.30
 
706.3
168.7
4,492.0
 
850,000
450,000
 
2070
2.30
 
695.4
164.9
4,431.9
 
850,000
450,000
 
2075
2.30
 
684.9
161.1
4,373.8
 
850,000
450,000
 
2080
2.30
 
674.8
157.6
4,317.7
 
850,000
450,000
 
2085
2.30
 
665.0
154.1
4,263.4
 
850,000
450,000
High Cost:
 
2010
1.99
 
804.6
211.1
4,984.3
 
472,500
250,000
 
2015
1.92
 
752.5
193.8
4,687.0
 
472,500
250,000
 
2020
1.85
 
701.7
178.4
4,386.9
 
472,500
200,000
 
2025
1.78
 
654.3
164.5
4,103.6
 
472,500
200,000
 
2030
1.71
 
610.7
151.8
3,841.8
 
472,500
200,000
 
2035
1.70
 
570.6
140.3
3,601.2
 
472,500
200,000
 
2040
1.70
 
534.1
129.8
3,380.9
 
472,500
200,000
 
2045
1.70
 
500.6
120.2
3,179.1
 
472,500
200,000
 
2050
1.70
 
469.8
111.4
2,993.9
 
472,500
200,000
 
2055
1.70
 
441.6
103.4
2,823.8
 
472,500
200,000
 
2060
1.70
 
415.7
96.0
2,667.1
 
472,500
200,000
 
2065
1.70
 
391.8
89.2
2,522.8
 
472,500
200,000
 
2070
1.70
 
369.8
83.0
2,389.6
 
472,500
200,000
 
2075
1.70
 
349.4
77.2
2,266.4
 
472,500
200,000
 
2080
1.70
 
330.6
71.9
2,152.4
 
472,500
200,000
 
2085
1.70
 
313.2
67.1
2,046.7
 
472,500
200,000

1The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2031.

2The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2000, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

3Historical estimates of net legal immigration assume a 25 percent reduction in legal immigration due to legal emigration. Estimates do not include persons legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

4Net other annual immigration is estimated to have averaged 375,000 persons over the period 1980-89 and 550,000 over the period 1990-99.

5Preliminary or estimated.

4. Total Population Estimates

Combining the above assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and net immigration with assumptions on marriage and divorce based on data from the NCHS, projections were made of the population in the Social Security area by age, sex, and marital status as of January 1 of each year 2006 through 2085. The starting Social Security area population for January 1, 2005, is based on the Census Bureau's estimate of the residents of the 50 States and D.C., and U.S. Armed Forces overseas. The base estimate is adjusted for net census undercount and increased for other U.S. citizens living abroad (including residents of U.S. territories) and for non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social Security benefits. This starting population was then projected using assumed rates of birth, death, marriage and divorce, and assumed levels of net immigration.

Table V.A2 shows the historical and projected population as of July 1 by broad age group, for the three alternatives. Also shown are aged and total dependency ratios (see table footnotes for definitions).

Table V.A2.-Social Security Area Population as of July 1 and Dependency Ratios,
Calendar Years 1950-2085 
Calendar year
Population (in thousands)
 
Dependency ratio
Under 20
20-64
65 and
over
Total
Aged 1
Total 2
Historical data:
 
1950
54,466
92,841
12,811
160,118
 
0.138
0.725
 
1960
73,076
99,818
17,278
190,172
 
.173
.905
 
1965
80,132
104,795
19,091
204,018
 
.182
.947
 
1970
80,684
113,158
20,923
214,765
 
.185
.898
 
1975
78,437
122,857
23,305
224,599
 
.190
.828
 
1980
74,568
134,428
26,237
235,233
 
.195
.750
 
1985
73,211
144,957
29,167
247,335
 
.201
.706
 
1990
75,060
153,368
32,029
260,458
 
.209
.698
 
1995
79,621
160,844
34,322
274,788
 
.213
.708
 
2000
82,619
170,240
35,425
288,284
 
.208
.693
 
2005
84,394
181,063
37,147
302,604
 
.205
.671
 
20063
84,642
183,066
37,516
305,225
 
.205
.667
Intermediate:
 
2010
85,211
190,004
40,031
315,246
 
.211
.659
 
2015
85,877
195,886
46,070
327,833
 
.235
.674
 
2020
87,512
198,883
53,773
340,167
 
.270
.710
 
2025
89,218
199,997
62,577
351,792
 
.313
.759
 
2030
90,785
200,966
70,252
362,003
 
.350
.801
 
2035
91,782
204,011
74,874
370,667
 
.367
.817
 
2040
92,555
208,126
77,415
378,096
 
.372
.817
 
2045
93,428
212,145
79,140
384,712
 
.373
.813
 
2050
94,596
215,056
81,317
390,968
 
.378
.818
 
2055
95,937
217,392
83,905
397,234
 
.386
.827
 
2060
97,185
219,357
87,153
403,696
 
.397
.840
 
2065
98,260
222,171
89,904
410,335
 
.405
.847
 
2070
99,245
225,166
92,568
416,979
 
.411
.852
 
2075
100,279
228,289
94,932
423,499
 
.416
.855
 
2080
101,418
231,000
97,438
429,857
 
.422
.861
 
2085
102,612
233,426
100,094
436,131
 
.429
.868
Low Cost:
 
2010
85,798
190,821
39,988
316,607
 
0.210
0.659
 
2015
87,956
198,095
45,816
331,867
 
.231
.675
 
2020
91,863
202,536
53,152
347,551
 
.262
.716
 
2025
96,611
205,160
61,425
363,196
 
.299
.770
 
2030
101,823
207,876
68,407
378,106
 
.329
.819
 
2035
106,471
213,392
72,250
392,112
 
.339
.838
 
2040
110,622
220,712
74,049
405,383
 
.335
.837
 
2045
114,835
228,599
75,221
418,655
 
.329
.831
 
2050
119,431
236,028
77,109
432,569
 
.327
.833
 
2055
124,371
243,483
79,624
447,478
 
.327
.838
 
2060
129,555
251,029
82,819
463,402
 
.330
.846
 
2065
134,653
260,110
85,415
480,178
 
.328
.846
 
2070
139,623
270,203
87,784
497,610
 
.325
.842
 
2075
144,649
281,086
89,931
515,667
 
.320
.835
 
2080
149,917
291,697
92,811
534,425
 
.318
.832
 
2085
155,428
302,087
96,462
553,977
 
.319
.834
High Cost:
 
2010
84,687
189,356
40,086
314,129
 
.212
.659
 
2015
84,051
194,321
46,391
324,764
 
.239
.671
 
2020
83,666
196,387
54,561
334,614
 
.278
.704
 
2025
82,659
196,518
64,059
343,235
 
.326
.747
 
2030
81,069
196,374
72,663
350,105
 
.370
.783
 
2035
79,020
197,682
78,370
355,072
 
.396
.796
 
2040
77,131
199,375
82,033
358,539
 
.411
.798
 
2045
75,548
200,350
84,763
360,660
 
.423
.800
 
2050
74,381
199,616
87,720
361,717
 
.439
.812
 
2055
73,402
197,827
90,859
362,088
 
.459
.830
 
2060
72,150
195,351
94,599
362,099
 
.484
.854
 
2065
70,747
193,249
97,899
361,894
 
.507
.873
 
2070
69,397
190,733
101,245
361,375
 
.531
.895
 
2075
68,225
187,936
104,227
360,389
 
.555
.918
 
2080
67,200
184,852
106,766
358,818
 
.578
.941
 
2085
66,225
181,696
108,795
356,715
 
.599
.963

1Population aged 65 and over, divided by population aged 20-64.

2Sum of population aged 65 and over, and population under age 20, divided by population aged 20-64.

3Preliminary or estimated.

Notes:
1. Historical data are subject to revision.

2. Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

5. Life Expectancy Estimates

Life expectancy, or average remaining number of years expected prior to death, is a useful analytical concept. Life expectancy is calculated in two different forms, for two separate purposes.

Period life expectancy is calculated for a given year using the actual or expected death rates at each age for that year. It is a useful summary statistic for illustrating the overall level of the death rates experienced in a single year. It is thus closely related to the age-sex-adjusted death rate that is discussed in section V.A.2. Period life expectancy for a particular year may be viewed as the expected remaining life at a selected age only if it is assumed that there is no change in death rates after that year.

Cohort life expectancy truly answers the question "What is the expected average remaining lifetime for an individual at a selected age in a given year?" Cohort life expectancy is calculated using death rates not from a single year, but from the series of years in which the individual will actually reach each succeeding age if he or she survives. Cohort life expectancy is shown in table V.A4 for those born on January 1 of each calendar year, and for those attaining age 65 on January 1 of each calendar year.

Tables V.A3 and V.A4 present historical and projected life expectancy calculated on both period and cohort bases. Cohort life expectancy is somewhat greater than period life expectancy for the same year. This is because death rates for any given age tend to decline as time passes and the cohort grows older.

Table V.A3.-Period Life Expectancy 1
Calendar
year
Low Cost
 
Intermediate
 
High Cost
At birth
 
At age 65
At birth
 
At age 65
At birth
 
At age 65
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Historical data:
 
1940
           
61.4
65.7
 
11.9
13.4
           
 
1945
           
62.9
68.4
 
12.6
14.4
           
 
1950
           
65.6
71.1
 
12.8
15.1
           
 
1955
         
66.7
72.8
 
13.1
15.6
           
 
1960
           
66.7
73.2
 
12.9
15.9
           
 
1965
           
66.8
73.8
 
12.9
16.3
           
 
1970
           
67.2
74.9
 
13.1
17.1
           
 
1975
           
68.7
76.6
 
13.7
18.0
           
 
1980
           
69.9
77.5
 
14.0
18.4
           
 
1985
           
71.1
78.2
 
14.4
18.6
           
 
1990
           
71.8
78.9
 
15.1
19.1
           
 
 
1991
           
72.0
79.0
 
15.2
19.2
           
 
1992
           
72.3
79.2
 
15.3
19.3
           
 
1993
           
72.1
79.0
 
15.2
19.0
           
 
1994
           
72.3
79.1
 
15.3
19.1
           
 
1995
           
72.5
79.1
 
15.4
19.1
           
 
1996
           
73.0
79.2
 
15.5
19.1
           
 
1997
           
73.4
79.4
 
15.6
19.1
           
 
1998
           
73.7
79.4
 
15.7
19.1
           
 
1999
           
73.8
79.3
 
15.7
19.0
           
 
2000
           
74.0
79.4
 
15.9
19.0
           
 
2001
           
74.1
79.5
 
16.1
19.1
           
 
2002 
           
74.2
79.5
 
16.2
19.1
           
 
2003 
           
74.4
79.6
 
16.3
19.2
           
 
2004 2
           
74.7
79.6
 
16.3
19.1
           
 
2005 2
           
74.8
79.6
 
16.4
19.1
           
 
2006 2
           
75.0
79.7
 
16.5
19.1
           
Projected:
 
2010
75.2
79.7
 
16.6
19.0
 
75.5
79.9
 
16.7
19.2
 
75.9
80.2
 
16.9
19.3
 
2015
75.5
79.8
 
16.7
19.0
 
76.1
80.3
 
17.1
19.4
 
76.8
80.9
 
17.5
19.8
 
2020
75.8
80.0
 
16.8
19.1
 
76.7
80.7
 
17.4
19.7
 
77.7
81.6
 
18.0
20.3
 
2025
76.1
80.2
 
16.9
19.2
 
77.2
81.1
 
17.7
19.9
 
78.6
82.3
 
18.6
20.8
 
2030
76.3
80.4
 
17.0
19.3
 
77.7
81.6
 
18.0
20.2
 
79.4
83.0
 
19.1
21.3
 
2035
76.6
80.6
 
17.2
19.4
 
78.2
82.0
 
18.3
20.5
 
80.2
83.7
 
19.6
21.8
 
2040
76.8
80.8
 
17.3
19.6
 
78.6
82.4
 
18.5
20.8
 
81.0
84.4
 
20.1
22.3
 
2045
77.1
81.0
 
17.4
19.7
 
79.1
82.7
 
18.8
21.1
 
81.7
85.0
 
20.6
22.8
 
2050
77.3
81.2
 
17.5
19.8
 
79.5
83.1
 
19.1
21.3
 
82.4
85.7
 
21.1
23.2
 
2055
77.5
81.4
 
17.6
19.9
 
79.9
83.5
 
19.4
21.6
 
83.1
86.2
 
21.5
23.7
 
2060
77.7
81.5
 
17.7
20.0
 
80.3
83.8
 
19.6
21.8
 
83.7
86.8
 
22.0
24.1
 
2065
78.0
81.7
 
17.8
20.1
 
80.7
84.2
 
19.9
22.1
 
84.4
87.4
 
22.4
24.5
 
2070
78.2
81.9
 
17.9
20.2
 
81.1
84.5
 
20.1
22.3
 
85.0
87.9
 
22.9
25.0
 
2075
78.4
82.0
 
18.0
20.3
 
81.5
84.8
 
20.4
22.5
 
85.6
88.5
 
23.3
25.4
 
2080
78.6
82.2
 
18.1
20.4
 
81.9
85.1
 
20.6
22.8
 
86.2
89.0
 
23.7
25.8
 
2085
78.8
82.3
 
18.2
20.5
 
82.2
85.4
 
20.8
23.0
 
86.7
89.5
 
24.1
26.2

1The period life expectancy at a given age for a given year represents the average number of years of life remaining if a group of persons at that age were to experience the mortality rates for that year over the course of their remaining lives.

2Preliminary or estimated.

Table V.A4.-Cohort Life Expectancy 1
Calendar
year
Low Cost
 
Intermediate
 
High Cost
At birth2
 
At age 65  3
At birth2
 
At age 65 3
At birth2
 
At age 65  3
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
1940
69.4
75.3
 
12.7
14.7
 
69.7
75.7
 
12.7
14.7
 
70.1
76.2
 
12.7
14.7
1945
70.9
76.6
 
13.0
15.4
 
71.4
77.2
 
13.0
15.4
 
72.0
77.9
 
13.0
15.4
1950
71.9
77.6
 
13.1
16.2
 
72.6
78.4
 
13.1
16.2
 
73.4
79.4
 
13.1
16.2
1955
72.4
78.0
 
13.1
16.7
 
73.3
79.0
 
13.1
16.7
 
74.4
80.2
 
13.1
16.7
1960
72.9
78.3
 
13.2
17.4
 
74.0
79.5
 
13.2
17.4
 
75.4
81.0
 
13.2
17.4
1965
73.5
78.6
 
13.5
18.0
 
74.9
80.0
 
13.5
18.0
 
76.6
81.8
 
13.5
18.0
1970
74.4
79.2
 
13.8
18.5
 
75.9
80.8
 
13.8
18.5
 
78.0
82.9
 
13.8
18.5
1975
75.0
79.7
 
14.2
18.7
 
76.8
81.5
 
14.2
18.7
 
79.2
83.9
 
14.2
18.7
1980
75.7
80.2
 
14.7
18.7
 
77.7
82.1
 
14.7
18.7
 
80.5
84.8
 
14.7
18.7
1985
76.2
80.5
 
15.2
18.8
 
78.4
82.7
 
15.2
18.8
 
81.5
85.7
 
15.3
18.9
1990
76.6
80.8
 
15.7
18.9
 
79.1
83.2
 
15.7
19.0
 
82.5
86.4
 
15.8
19.1
 
1991
76.6
80.9
 
15.8
18.9
 
79.2
83.3
 
15.8
19.0
 
82.6
86.6
 
15.9
19.1
1992
76.7
80.9
 
15.8
18.9
 
79.3
83.4
 
15.9
19.0
 
82.8
86.7
 
16.0
19.2
1993
76.8
81.0
 
15.9
18.9
 
79.4
83.5
 
16.0
19.0
 
83.0
86.9
 
16.1
19.2
1994
76.9
81.0
 
16.0
18.9
 
79.6
83.5
 
16.1
19.1
 
83.2
87.0
 
16.2
19.3
1995
77.0
81.1
 
16.1
18.9
 
79.7
83.7
 
16.2
19.1
 
83.4
87.2
 
16.4
19.3
1996
77.0
81.1
 
16.2
18.9
 
79.8
83.7
 
16.3
19.2
 
83.6
87.3
 
16.5
19.4
1997
77.1
81.2
 
16.3
18.9
 
79.9
83.8
 
16.4
19.2
 
83.7
87.5
 
16.6
19.5
1998
77.1
81.2
 
16.3
19.0
 
80.0
83.9
 
16.6
19.3
 
83.9
87.6
 
16.8
19.6
1999
77.2
81.3
 
16.4
19.0
 
80.1
84.0
 
16.6
19.3
 
84.0
87.7
 
16.9
19.7
2000 
77.2
81.3
 
16.5
19.0
 
80.2
84.1
 
16.7
19.4
 
84.2
87.8
 
17.0
19.7
2001 
77.3
81.4
 
16.5
19.0
 
80.3
84.1
 
16.8
19.4
 
84.3
88.0
 
17.2
19.8
2002 
77.3
81.4
 
16.6
19.0
 
80.3
84.2
 
16.9
19.5
 
84.5
88.1
 
17.3
19.9
2003
77.4
81.4
 
16.6
19.1
 
80.4
84.3
 
17.0
19.5
 
84.6
88.2
 
17.4
20.0
2004
77.4
81.5
 
16.7
19.1
 
80.5
84.4
 
17.1
19.6
 
84.8
88.4
 
17.5
20.1
2005
77.5
81.5
 
16.7
19.1
 
80.6
84.4
 
17.1
19.6
 
85.0
88.5
 
17.6
20.2
2006
77.6
81.6
 
16.7
19.1
 
80.7
84.5
 
17.2
19.7
 
85.1
88.6
 
17.8
20.3
 
2010
77.8
81.7
 
16.8
19.2
 
81.1
84.8
 
17.5
19.9
 
85.7
89.1
 
18.3
20.7
2015
78.0
81.9
 
17.0
19.3
 
81.5
85.2
 
17.8
20.2
 
86.4
89.7
 
18.8
21.3
2020
78.2
82.1
 
17.1
19.4
 
81.9
85.5
 
18.1
20.5
 
87.1
90.3
 
19.4
21.8
2025
78.4
82.3
 
17.2
19.5
 
82.3
85.8
 
18.4
20.8
 
87.7
90.8
 
20.0
22.3
2030
78.7
82.4
 
17.3
19.7
 
82.7
86.1
 
18.7
21.1
 
88.3
91.4
 
20.5
22.8
2035
78.9
82.6
 
17.4
19.8
 
83.1
86.4
 
19.0
21.3
 
88.9
91.9
 
21.0
23.3
2040
79.1
82.7
 
17.5
19.9
 
83.4
86.7
 
19.3
21.6
 
89.5
92.4
 
21.5
23.8
2045
79.3
82.9
 
17.6
20.0
 
83.8
87.0
 
19.6
21.9
 
90.0
92.8
 
22.0
24.3
2050
79.5
83.0
 
17.8
20.1
 
84.1
87.3
 
19.8
22.1
 
90.6
93.3
 
22.5
24.8
2055
79.6
83.2
 
17.9
20.2
 
84.4
87.6
 
20.1
22.4
 
91.1
93.8
 
23.0
25.2
2060
79.8
83.3
 
18.0
20.3
 
84.8
87.8
 
20.3
22.6
 
91.6
94.2
 
23.5
25.7
2065
80.0
83.5
 
18.1
20.4
 
85.1
88.1
 
20.6
22.8
 
92.1
94.7
 
23.9
26.1
2070
80.2
83.6
 
18.2
20.5
 
85.4
88.3
 
20.8
23.1
 
92.6
95.1
 
24.4
26.5
2075
80.3
83.7
 
18.3
20.6
 
85.7
88.6
 
21.1
23.3
 
93.0
95.5
 
24.8
27.0
2080
80.5
83.8
 
18.4
20.7
 
86.0
88.8
 
21.3
23.5
 
93.5
95.9
 
25.2
27.4
2085
80.6
84.0
 
18.5
20.8
 
86.2
89.1
 
21.5
23.7
 
93.9
96.3
 
25.6
27.8

1The cohort life expectancy at a given age for a given year represents the average number of years of life remaining if a group of persons at that age were to experience the mortality rates for the series of years in which they reach each succeeding age.

2Cohort life expectancy at birth for those born on January 1 of the calendar year is based on a combination of actual and estimated death rates for birth years prior to 2004. For birth years after 2003, these values are based solely on estimated death rates.

3Age 65 cohort life expectancy for those attaining age 65 on January 1 of the calendar years before 1975 is based on actual data. For 1975 through 2003, these values are based on a combination of actual and estimated death rates. After 2003, these values are based solely on estimated death rates.


1Further details about the assumptions, methods, and actuarial estimates are contained in Actuarial Studies published by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration. A complete list of available studies may be found on the Social Security website at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/actstud.html. To obtain copies of such Studies, or of this report, submit a request via our Internet request form; or write to: Office of the Chief Actuary, 700 Altmeyer Building, 6401 Security Boulevard, Baltimore, MD 21235; or call (410) 965-3006. This entire report, along with supplemental year-by-year tables, may also be found at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/TR07/index.html.

2Defined to be the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. A rate of 2.1 would ultimately result in a nearly constant population if net immigration were zero and if death rates were constant.

3These rates reflect NCHS data on deaths and Census estimates of population.

4Calculated here as the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2000, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex for the selected year.

5Average rate of decline is calculated as the annual geometric rate of reduction between the first and last years of the period.

6Consistent with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, legal immigrants are individuals admitted to the U.S. for legal permanent residence.

7Excludes those persons admitted under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

8600,000 net legal immigrants plus 300,000 net other immigrants.

9850,000 net legal immigrants plus 450,000 net other immigrants.

10472,500 net legal immigrants plus 200,000 net other immigrants.


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