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1997 OASDI Trustees Report


E. ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS
FROM THE FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS
INSURANCE TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO
DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

(Required by section 201(c) of the Social Security Act)

Effective January 1957, monthly benefits have been payable from the OASI Trust Fund to disabled children aged 18 and over of retired and deceased workers in those cases for which the disability began before age 18. The age before which disability is required to have begun was subsequently changed to age 22. Effective February 1968, reduced monthly benefits have been payable from this trust fund to disabled widows and widowers at ages 50 and above. Effective January 1991, the requirements for the disability of the widow or widower were made less restrictive.

On December 31, 1996, about 782,000 persons were receiving monthly benefits from the OASI Trust Fund because of their disabilities or the disabilities of children. This total includes 43,000 mothers and fathers (wives or husbands under age 65 of retired-worker beneficiaries and widows or widowers of deceased insured workers) who met all other qualifying requirements and were receiving unreduced benefits solely because they had disabled-child beneficiaries (or disabled children aged 16 or 17) in their care. Benefits paid from this trust fund to the persons described above totaled $4,410 million in calendar year 1996. Table III.E1 shows these and similar figures for selected calendar years during 1960-96, and estimated experience for 1997-2006 based on the intermediate set of assumptions.


Table III.E1.­ Benefit Disbursements From the OASI Trust Fund With Respect to
Disabled Beneficiaries, Selected Calendar Years 1960-96 and Estimated Future
Disbursements During 1997-2006 Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[Beneficiaries in thousands; benefit payments in millions]
Calendar
years		 Disabled beneficiaries, end of year
 Amount of benefit payments 1/
Total Children 2/ Widows-
widowers 3/		 Total Children 2/ Widows-
widowers 4/
Historical data:
       1960 117 117 - $59 $59 -
       1965 214 214 - 134 134 -
       1970 316 281 36 301 260 $41
       1975 435 376 58 664 560 104
       1980 519 460 59 1,223 1,097 126
       1985 594 547 47 2,072 1,885 187
 
       1986 614 565 49 2,219 2,022 197
       1987 629 580 49 2,331 2,128 203
       1988 633 584 49 2,518 2,307 211
       1989 651 602 49 2,680 2,459 221
       1990 662 613 49 2,882 2,649 233
 
       1991 687 627 61 3,179 2,875 304
       1992 715 643 72 3,459 3,079 380
       1993 740 659 81 3,752 3,296 456
       1994 758 671 86 3,973 3,481 492
       1995 772 681 91 4,202 3,672 531
       1996 782 687 94 4,410 3,846 565
 
Estimates:
       1997 803 701 101 4,684 4,061 623
       1998 816 715 100 4,935 4,283 651
       1999 828 729 99 5,214 4,546 668
       2000 841 743 98 5,501 4,819 682
       2001 852 756 96 5,796 5,103 693
 
       2002 862 769 93 6,105 5,406 700
       2003 871 782 90 6,422 5,718 704
       2004 880 794 87 6,758 6,048 710
       2005 889 805 84 7,101 6,384 717
       2006 896 816 80 7,449 6,738 711
1 Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

2 Also includes certain mothers and fathers (see text).

3 In 1984 and later years, only disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59 are included because disabled widows and widowers aged 60-64 would be eligible for the same benefit as a nondisabled aged widow or widower; therefore, they are not receiving benefits solely because of a disability.

4 In 1983 and prior years, reflects the offsetting effect of lower benefits payable to disabled widows and widowers who continue to receive benefits after attaining age 60 (62, for disabled widowers, prior to 1973) as compared to the higher nondisabled widow's and widower's benefits that would otherwise be payable. In 1984 and later years, only benefit payments to disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59 are included (see footnote 3).

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



Total benefit payments from the OASI Trust Fund with respect to disabled beneficiaries are estimated to increase from $4,684 million in calendar year 1997 to $7,449 million in calendar year 2006, based on the intermediate assumptions.

In calendar year 1996, benefit payments (including expenditures for vocational rehabilitation services) with respect to disabled persons from the OASI Trust Fund and from the DI Trust Fund (including payments from the latter fund to all children and spouses of disabled-worker beneficiaries) totaled $48,615 million. Of this amount, $4,410 million or 9.1 percent represented payments from the OASI Trust Fund. These and similar figures for selected calendar years during 1960-96 and estimates for calendar years 1997-2006 are presented in table III.E2.


Table III.E2.­ Benefit Disbursements Under the OASDI Program With Respect to
Disabled Beneficiaries, by Trust Fund, Selected Calendar Years 1960-96,
and Estimated Future Disbursements During 1997-2006
Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[Amounts in millions]
Calendar
years		 Total 1/ DI Trust
Fund 2/		 OASI Trust Fund
Amount 3/ Percentage
of total
Historical data:
       1960 $627 $568 $59 9.4
       1965 1,707 1,573 134 7.9
       1970 3,386 3,085 301 8.9
       1975 9,169 8,505 664 7.2
       1980 16,738 15,515 1,223 7.3
       1985 20,908 18,836 2,072 9.9
 
       1986 22,075 19,856 2,219 10.1
       1987 22,858 20,527 2,331 10.2
       1988 24,226 21,708 2,518 10.4
       1989 25,591 22,911 2,680 10.5
       1990 27,717 24,835 2,882 10.4
 
       1991 30,877 27,698 3,179 10.3
       1992 34,583 31,124 3,459 10.0
       1993 38,378 34,626 3,752 9.8
       1994 41,730 37,757 3,973 9.5
       1995 45,140 40,937 4,202 9.3
       1996 48,615 44,205 4,410 9.1
 
Estimates:
       1997 52,098 47,414 4,684 9.0
       1998 55,861 50,927 4,935 8.8
       1999 60,069 54,855 5,214 8.7
       2000 64,182 58,681 5,501 8.6
       2001 69,242 63,446 5,796 8.4
 
       2002 74,837 68,732 6,105 8.2
       2003 80,861 74,439 6,422 7.9
       2004 87,733 80,975 6,758 7.7
       2005 95,102 88,001 7,101 7.5
       2006 102,837 95,388 7,449 7.2
1 Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

2 Benefit payments to disabled workers and their children and spouses.

3 Benefit payments to disabled children aged 18 and over, to certain mothers and fathers (see text), and to disabled widows and widowers (see footnote 4, table III.E1).

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.


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