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Detailed Single Year Tables

Description of Proposed Provision:
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2020, create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers and gradually reduce all PIA formula factors except for the 90 percent factor. By 2053: a) the 32 percent PIA formula factor below the new bend point reduces to 30 percent; b) the 32 percent PIA factor above the new bend point reduces to 10 percent; and c) the 15 percent factor reduces to 5 percent.

 

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

 
  Proposal
  Change from Present Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
present-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
present-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201313.9512.69-1.26
330
0.000.000.00
201414.0412.83-1.20
315
0.000.000.00
201513.9712.86-1.10
301
0.000.000.00
201613.9112.88-1.03
286
0.000.000.00
201713.8812.90-0.98
271
0.000.000.00
201813.9112.93-0.98
257
0.000.000.00
201914.0612.95-1.11
244
0.000.000.00
202014.2612.97-1.29
231
0.000.000.00
202114.4412.99-1.45
218
0.000.000.00
202214.7013.03-1.67
204
-0.010.000.01
202314.9613.04-1.92
189
-0.010.000.01
202415.2113.06-2.15
174
-0.020.000.02
202515.4513.07-2.38
158
-0.030.000.03
202615.6613.08-2.58
142
-0.040.000.04
202715.8713.09-2.77
126
-0.060.000.06
202816.0513.11-2.95
109
-0.080.000.08
202916.2213.12-3.10
92
-0.110.000.10
203016.3613.13-3.24
74
-0.13-0.010.13
203116.4713.13-3.34
55
-0.16-0.010.15
203216.5613.14-3.42
36
-0.19-0.010.18
203316.6313.15-3.48
16
-0.23-0.010.22
203416.6713.15-3.52
----
-0.26-0.010.25
203516.6813.15-3.53
----
-0.30-0.010.29
203616.6713.15-3.52
----
-0.34-0.020.33
203716.6413.15-3.49
----
-0.38-0.020.36
203816.5913.15-3.44
----
-0.43-0.020.41
203916.5213.15-3.37
----
-0.47-0.020.45
204016.4513.15-3.30
----
-0.52-0.020.49
204116.3613.14-3.22
----
-0.57-0.030.54
204216.2813.14-3.14
----
-0.62-0.030.59
204316.1913.14-3.06
----
-0.67-0.030.64
204416.1213.13-2.98
----
-0.73-0.030.69
204516.0413.13-2.91
----
-0.78-0.040.75
204615.9713.13-2.84
----
-0.84-0.040.80
204715.9013.13-2.77
----
-0.91-0.040.86
204815.8213.12-2.70
----
-0.97-0.050.92
204915.7513.12-2.63
----
-1.03-0.050.98
205015.6813.12-2.57
----
-1.10-0.051.05
205115.6313.12-2.51
----
-1.17-0.061.11
205215.5813.11-2.46
----
-1.23-0.061.17
205315.5313.11-2.42
----
-1.30-0.061.24
205415.4913.11-2.38
----
-1.37-0.071.31
205515.4613.11-2.35
----
-1.45-0.071.38
205615.4413.11-2.33
----
-1.52-0.071.44
205715.4213.11-2.31
----
-1.59-0.081.51
205815.4013.11-2.29
----
-1.65-0.081.57
205915.3813.11-2.27
----
-1.72-0.081.63
206015.3613.11-2.25
----
-1.78-0.091.69
206115.3513.11-2.24
----
-1.84-0.091.75
206215.3313.11-2.23
----
-1.89-0.091.80
206315.3313.11-2.22
----
-1.94-0.101.85
206415.3213.11-2.21
----
-1.99-0.101.89
206515.3213.11-2.21
----
-2.04-0.101.94
206615.3213.11-2.21
----
-2.08-0.101.98
206715.3213.11-2.22
----
-2.13-0.112.02
206815.3313.11-2.22
----
-2.16-0.112.06
206915.3413.11-2.23
----
-2.20-0.112.09
207015.3513.11-2.24
----
-2.24-0.112.12
207115.3613.11-2.25
----
-2.27-0.112.15
207215.3613.11-2.25
----
-2.30-0.112.18
207315.3613.11-2.25
----
-2.32-0.122.20
207415.3613.11-2.25
----
-2.34-0.122.23
207515.3613.11-2.25
----
-2.36-0.122.24
207615.3513.11-2.24
----
-2.38-0.122.26
207715.3413.11-2.23
----
-2.39-0.122.27
207815.3313.11-2.22
----
-2.41-0.122.29
207915.3313.11-2.22
----
-2.42-0.122.30
208015.3313.11-2.22
----
-2.43-0.122.31
208115.3413.11-2.23
----
-2.44-0.122.32
208215.3513.11-2.24
----
-2.45-0.122.32
208315.3813.11-2.26
----
-2.46-0.122.33
208415.4013.12-2.29
----
-2.47-0.122.34
208515.4413.12-2.32
----
-2.48-0.122.35
208615.4813.12-2.36
----
-2.49-0.122.36
208715.5213.12-2.40
----
-2.50-0.122.37
208815.5613.12-2.43
----
-2.51-0.132.38



 

Summarized Estimates

 
  Proposal
  Change from Present Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
 
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2013 Trustees Report.
2013-2087 15.63% 13.83% -1.80%
2033
-0.97% -0.05% 0.92%
 
1 Under present law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2033.

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Last reviewed or modified September 11, 2013