Description of Proposed Provision:
F5: Tax Reform for Business: Establish a value added tax (VAT) of 3.0 percent for 2020 and 6.5 percent for 2021 and later. Assume about 75% of personal consumption expenditures is subject to the VAT.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201813.8112.64-1.17
288
0.000.000.00
201913.9512.87-1.08
272
0.000.000.00
202014.1212.45-1.67
256
-0.00-0.44-0.44
202114.2712.45-1.82
236
-0.00-0.47-0.47
202214.4312.47-1.96
217
-0.00-0.47-0.47
202314.6112.49-2.11
197
-0.01-0.47-0.46
202414.7812.52-2.26
177
-0.03-0.47-0.45
202514.9412.53-2.41
157
-0.04-0.47-0.43
202615.0912.66-2.44
138
-0.06-0.48-0.41
202715.2812.68-2.60
119
-0.09-0.48-0.39
202815.4712.69-2.77
100
-0.12-0.48-0.36
202915.6512.71-2.94
82
-0.15-0.48-0.33
203015.8112.72-3.08
63
-0.18-0.48-0.30
203115.9512.73-3.22
43
-0.21-0.48-0.27
203216.0812.74-3.34
24
-0.24-0.48-0.25
203316.1812.75-3.43
4
-0.27-0.49-0.22
203416.2712.76-3.51
----
-0.30-0.49-0.19
203516.3312.76-3.57
----
-0.32-0.49-0.17
203616.3812.77-3.61
----
-0.35-0.49-0.14
203716.4112.77-3.64
----
-0.37-0.49-0.12
203816.4312.78-3.65
----
-0.39-0.49-0.10
203916.4212.78-3.64
----
-0.42-0.49-0.08
204016.3912.78-3.62
----
-0.44-0.50-0.06
204116.3612.78-3.58
----
-0.45-0.50-0.04
204216.3012.77-3.53
----
-0.47-0.50-0.03
204316.2512.77-3.47
----
-0.49-0.50-0.01
204416.1912.77-3.42
----
-0.50-0.500.00
204516.1412.77-3.37
----
-0.52-0.500.02
204616.1012.77-3.33
----
-0.53-0.500.03
204716.0612.77-3.29
----
-0.55-0.500.04
204816.0212.76-3.25
----
-0.56-0.500.05
204915.9912.76-3.22
----
-0.57-0.500.07
205015.9612.76-3.20
----
-0.58-0.500.07
205115.9512.76-3.18
----
-0.59-0.510.08
205215.9412.76-3.17
----
-0.60-0.510.09
205315.9412.77-3.18
----
-0.60-0.510.10
205415.9512.77-3.19
----
-0.61-0.510.10
205515.9812.77-3.21
----
-0.61-0.510.11
205616.0012.77-3.23
----
-0.62-0.510.11
205716.0412.78-3.27
----
-0.62-0.510.12
205816.0812.78-3.31
----
-0.63-0.510.12
205916.1312.78-3.35
----
-0.63-0.510.12
206016.1712.79-3.39
----
-0.63-0.510.13
206116.2212.79-3.43
----
-0.64-0.510.13
206216.2712.79-3.47
----
-0.64-0.510.13
206316.3212.80-3.52
----
-0.64-0.510.13
206416.3712.80-3.57
----
-0.65-0.510.14
206516.4212.81-3.61
----
-0.65-0.510.14
206616.4712.81-3.66
----
-0.65-0.510.14
206716.5312.81-3.72
----
-0.65-0.510.14
206816.5912.82-3.77
----
-0.66-0.510.15
206916.6412.82-3.82
----
-0.66-0.510.15
207016.7012.83-3.88
----
-0.66-0.510.15
207116.7612.83-3.93
----
-0.66-0.510.15
207216.8012.83-3.97
----
-0.67-0.510.16
207316.8512.84-4.01
----
-0.67-0.510.16
207416.8812.84-4.04
----
-0.67-0.510.16
207516.9212.84-4.07
----
-0.67-0.510.16
207616.9412.84-4.09
----
-0.67-0.510.16
207716.9512.84-4.11
----
-0.67-0.510.16
207816.9512.85-4.11
----
-0.67-0.510.16
207916.9512.84-4.10
----
-0.67-0.510.16
208016.9312.84-4.09
----
-0.67-0.510.16
208116.9212.84-4.07
----
-0.67-0.510.16
208216.9012.84-4.06
----
-0.67-0.510.16
208316.8812.84-4.04
----
-0.67-0.510.16
208416.8712.84-4.03
----
-0.67-0.510.16
208516.8612.84-4.02
----
-0.67-0.510.16
208616.8612.84-4.02
----
-0.67-0.510.16
208716.8612.84-4.02
----
-0.67-0.510.16
208816.8812.84-4.03
----
-0.67-0.510.16
208916.9012.84-4.05
----
-0.67-0.510.16
209016.9312.84-4.08
----
-0.67-0.510.16
209116.9612.85-4.12
----
-0.67-0.510.16
209217.0012.85-4.15
----
-0.68-0.510.16
209317.0512.85-4.19
----
-0.68-0.510.17


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2018-2092 16.23% 13.36% -2.87%
2033
-0.46% -0.48% -0.03%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.