This chapter presents the estimates and measures of trust fund financial adequacy for the short-range period (2020 through 2029) first, followed by estimates and measures of
actuarial status for the long-range period (2020 through 2094). Summary measures are also provided for trust fund status over the infinite horizon. As described in chapter
II of this report, these estimates depend upon a broad set of
demographic, economic, and programmatic factors. This chapter presents estimates under three sets of assumptions to show a wide range of possible outcomes, because assumptions related to these factors are subject to uncertainty. The intermediate set of assumptions, designated as
alternative II, reflects the Trustees’ best estimate of future experience; the low-cost
alternative I is significantly more optimistic and the high-cost
alternative III is significantly more pessimistic for the trust funds’ future financial outlook. The tables of this report show the intermediate estimates first, followed by the low-cost and high-cost estimates. Chapter
V describes these three sets of assumptions, along with the actuarial methods used to produce the estimates. Appendix
D and appendix
E present two additional methods to illustrate the uncertainty of the projections. Appendix
D presents sensitivity analyses of the effects of variation in individual factors and appendix
E presents probability distributions generated by a stochastic model.
The Trustees consider the trust funds to be solvent at any point in time if the funds can pay scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis. A standard measure for assessing solvency is the “
trust fund ratio,” which is the reserves in a fund at the beginning of a year (not including advance tax transfers) expressed as a percentage of the cost during the year. A positive trust fund ratio indicates that the trust fund was solvent at the end of the prior year. The trust fund ratio represents the proportion of a year’s cost which the
reserves available at the beginning of that year can cover. The Trustees assume that a trust fund ratio of 100 percent of annual program cost provides a reasonable “contingency reserve.” Maintaining a reasonable contingency reserve is important because the trust funds do not have borrowing authority. After reserves are depleted, the trust funds would be unable to pay scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis if annual revenue were less than annual cost. Unexpected events, such as severe economic recessions, can quickly diminish reserves. In such cases, a reasonable contingency reserve can maintain the ability to pay scheduled benefits while giving lawmakers time to address possible changes to the program.
The test of short-range financial adequacy applies to the OASI and DI Trust Funds individually and combined on a hypothetical basis.
1 If the estimated trust fund ratio is at least 100 percent at the beginning of the projection period, the test requires that it remain at or above 100 percent throughout the 10-year period. If the ratio is initially less than 100 percent, then it must reach at least 100 percent within 5 years (without reserve depletion at any time during this period) and then remain at or above 100 percent throughout the remainder of the 10-year period. This test is applied using the estimates based on the intermediate assumptions. If either trust fund fails this test, then program solvency in the next 10 years is in question, and lawmakers should take prompt action to improve short-range financial adequacy.
This subsection presents estimates, based on the assumptions described in chapter V, of the operations and financial status of the OASI Trust Fund for the period 2020 through 2029. These estimates assume that there are no further changes in the statutory provisions and regulations under which the OASDI program currently operates beyond the changes since last year’s report indicated in section
III.B2
Estimates of the OASI Trust Fund operations presented in table IV.A1 indicate that the asset reserves of the OASI Trust Fund are projected to decrease in all years after 2020 under the intermediate assumptions, decrease in all years after 2021 under the low-cost assumptions, and decrease in all years through 2029 under the high-cost assumptions. Trust fund ratios decline throughout the 10-year projection period under all three sets of assumptions. Based on the intermediate assumptions, the reserves of the OASI Trust Fund drop below 100 percent of annual cost during 2029, to a trust fund ratio of 94 at the beginning of 2030. Consequently, the OASI Trust Fund fails the test of short-range financial adequacy. See figure IV.A1 for an illustration of these results.
The estimated income shown in table IV.A1 increases annually under each set of assumptions throughout the short-range projection period. The estimated increases in income result primarily from the projected increases in OASDI
taxable payroll. Employment increases in every year through 2029 for all three alternatives, with the exception of small decreases in covered employment in 2020 and 2021 for the high-cost alternative: the number of covered workers increases under alternatives I, II, and III from 178 million during calendar year 2019 to about 190 million, 186 million, and 182 million, respectively, in 2029.
3 The total annual amount of taxable payroll increases in every year through 2029 for each alternative. Total taxable payroll increases from $7,643 billion in 2019 to $13,632 billion, $11,629 billion, and $9,861 billion in 2029, on the basis of alternatives I, II, and III, respectively.
4 These increases in taxable payroll are due primarily to: (1) projected increases in employment levels as the working-age
population increases; (2) trend increases in average earnings in
covered employment (reflecting both real growth and price inflation); (3) increases in the
contribution and benefit base under the automatic-adjustment provisions; and (4) growth in employment and average earnings.
Rising OASI cost from 2019 through 2029 reflects automatic benefit increases as well as the upward trend in the number of beneficiaries and in the average monthly earnings underlying benefits. The steady growth in the number of OASI beneficiaries in the past and the expected future growth result both from the increase in the aged population and from the increase in the proportion of the population that is insured for benefits.
The Treasury invests OASI income in financial securities, generally special public-debt obligations of the U.S. Government. The revenue used to make these purchases flows to the General Fund of the Treasury. The trust fund earns interest on these securities, and the Treasury invests the proceeds from maturing securities in new securities if not immediately needed to pay program costs. Program expenditures require the redemption of trust fund securities, generally prior to maturity, to cover the payments made by the General Fund of the Treasury on behalf of the trust fund.
5Table IV.A2 shows the estimated operations and financial status of the DI Trust Fund during calendar years 2020 through 2029 under the three sets of assumptions, together with values for actual experience during 2015 through 2019. Non-interest income for DI was much higher in 2016 through 2018 than in 2015, due to the temporary payroll tax rate reallocation from OASI to DI in these years. For 2019, non-interest income was less than DI cost. Non-interest income increases steadily throughout the short-range projection period under each alternative, with the exception of a small decrease in 2021 under the high-cost assumptions, due to most of the same factors described previously for the OASI Trust Fund beginning on page 44. DI cost grows steadily throughout the period under each alternative. Under the
intermediate and low-cost assumptions, reserves increase through 2029. Under the high-cost assumptions, DI reserves decline until
depletion in the fourth quarter of 2026.
For the future, DI cost is projected to increase in part due to increases in average benefit levels resulting from: (1) automatic benefit increases and (2) projected increases in the amounts of average monthly earnings on which benefits are based. Future changes in DI cost also reflect changes in the number of DI beneficiaries in current-payment status. In 2019, the number of DI beneficiaries in current-payment status continued the declining trend of the prior five years. Under the intermediate assumptions, that number of DI beneficiaries is projected to drop further through the end of 2022, then increase through the end of 2026 to a level slightly below 10 million, which it remains near through the rest of the short-range projection period. The rate of increase after 2022 is much slower than was experienced on average from 1990 to 2010, when the population with the highest disability prevalence rates was growing rapidly due to the aging of the baby-boom generation. See section
V.C.5 for further details.
Table IV.A3 shows the estimated operations and status of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds for calendar years 2020 through 2029 under the three alternatives, together with actual experience in 2015 through 2019. Income and cost for the OASI Trust Fund represent over 80 percent of the corresponding amounts for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. Therefore, based on the relative strength of the OASI Trust Fund over the next 10 years, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would have sufficient financial resources to pay all scheduled benefits through the end of the short-range period, although it is important to note that under current law, one trust fund cannot share financial resources with another trust fund. However, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds do not satisfy the test of short-range financial adequacy because trust fund reserves drop below 100 percent of annual cost during 2029, to a trust fund ratio of 94 percent at the beginning of 2030.
Table IV.A4 presents an analysis of the factors underlying the changes in the intermediate estimates over the short-range projection period for the OASI, DI, and the combined funds from last year’s report to this report.
Table IV.A4 also shows corresponding estimates of the factors underlying the changes in the financial projections for the DI Trust Fund and for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds.
The 19-percentage-point increase in the DI trust fund ratio from the beginning of 2028 in last year’s report to the beginning of 2029 in this year’s report is the net effect of increases and decreases from the factors described above for the OASI Trust Fund, combined with other changes that are significant for DI but not OASI. First, the large increase of 26 points due to programmatic data and assumptions reflects lower estimated disabled-worker incidence rates throughout the short-range projection period, incorporating both more favorable recent experience and the lower ultimate disabled-worker incidence rate assumption in this report. The second is an improvement in the method for projecting average monthly benefit amounts awarded to disabled workers, which decreased the DI trust fund ratio for 2029 by 2 percentage points. Finally, a regulation change eliminating the inability to communicate in English as an educational category in the disability determination and medical review processes,
6 partially offset by the effect of P.L. 116-94 described in the OASI section, increased the tenth year DI Trust Fund ratio by 1 percentage point.
