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COLA Estimates

June 4, 2025
Cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The CPI-W is determined and published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor.

The COLA effective for December 2025 will be based on the increase in the third-quarter average CPI-W for 2025 over the average CPI-W for the last base quarter. The last base quarter is the third quarter of 2024, the last year in which a COLA became effective. The average CPI-W for this quarter is 308.729. Compared to this average, the latest CPI-W (see data below) is 1.5 percent higher.

CPI-W for July 2024 through March 2025
Month CPI-W
Jul 2024 308.501
Aug 2024 308.640
Sep 2024 309.046
Oct 2024 309.358
Nov 2024 308.998
Dec 2024 309.067
Jan 2025 311.172
Feb 2025 312.460
Month CPI-W
Mar 2025 313.250
Annual reports by the Board of Trustees for the Social Security Trust Funds show estimates of future COLAs. Below are estimates based on 3 sets of economic assumptions from the 2024 OASDI Trustees Report, the latest available report.

Effective month Month first payable Low cost Intermediate High cost
Dec. 2025Jan. 2026 3.0% 2.2% 1.8%
Dec. 2026Jan. 2027 3.0% 2.4% 1.8%

The Board of Trustees regards the intermediate estimates as their best estimates.

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