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1994-96 Advisory Council Report

 

Table UB'. Comparison of Direct (First-Order) Effects on the U.S. Government Unified Budget Balance of Changes in the Nontax Income, Outgo, and Investmentof the OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds as a Result of Advisory Council Proposals

(all amounts in percentage of GDP)

   

OASDI NonInt Income Less Outgo Plus Revenue to HI From Taxation of OASDI Benefits

  

Change from Present Law Balance Between OASDI NonInt Income and Outgo

  

Borrow from General Fund

  

TF Net Equity Purchase

   Borrowing From the Public (without interest)
           
Calendar           =(9)-(5)   =-(6)   =(8)-(7)

Year

 

 

PL

 

 

MB

 

 

IA

 

 

PSA

 

 

MB

 

 

IA

 

 

PSA

 

 

 

 

 

 

MB

 

 

IA

 

 

PSA
    (1)   (2)   (3)   (4)*   (5)   (6)   (7)*   (8)   (9)   (10)   (11)   (12)
                                                 
                                                 
1998   0.49   0.55   0.53   -0.69   0.06   0.04   -1.18           -0.06   -0.04   1.18
1999   0.47   0.55   0.52   -0.79   0.09   0.06   -1.26           -0.09   -0.06   1.26
2000   0.45   0.58   0.53   -0.81   0.12   0.08   -1.27       0.27   0.14   -0.08   1.27
2001   0.45   0.61   0.55   -0.83   0.16   0.10   -1.28       0.29   0.13   -0.10   1.28
2002   0.44   0.64   0.57   -0.07   0.20   0.13   -0.51   0.77   0.31   0.11   -0.13   1.28
2003   0.43   0.66   0.60   -0.02   0.23   0.17   -0.45   0.81   0.33   0.10   -0.17   1.26
2004   0.42   0.69   0.64   -0.01   0.27   0.22   -0.43   0.81   0.35   0.08   -0.22   1.24
2005   0.42   0.73   0.68   -0.17   0.30   0.26   -0.60   0.62   0.38   0.08   -0.26   1.22
2006   0.43   0.76   0.72   -0.13   0.33   0.29   -0.56   0.62   0.41   0.08   -0.29   1.17
2007   0.43   0.78   0.75   -0.07   0.35   0.32   -0.50   0.62   0.44   0.09   -0.32   1.11
2008   0.41   0.76   0.75   -0.02   0.35   0.34   -0.44   0.62   0.46   0.10   -0.34   1.05
2009   0.37   0.73   0.74   0.02   0.36   0.36   -0.36   0.62   0.47   0.11   -0.36   0.97
2010   0.33   0.69   0.72   -0.14   0.37   0.39   -0.47   0.42   0.48   0.12   -0.39   0.89
2011   0.28   0.65   0.69   -0.09   0.37   0.41   -0.37   0.41   0.49   0.12   -0.41   0.78
2012   0.21   0.59   0.64   -0.07   0.38   0.44   -0.27   0.41   0.49   0.11   -0.44   0.69
2013   0.13   0.51   0.59   -0.03   0.39   0.47   -0.16   0.41   0.49   0.10   -0.47   0.57
2014   0.04   0.43   0.54   -0.01   0.39   0.50   -0.05   0.41   0.48   0.08   -0.50   0.46
2015   -0.06   0.34   0.48   -0.12   0.40   0.54   -0.06   0.29   -0.17   -0.57   -0.54   0.35
2016   -0.16   0.25   0.43   -0.09   0.40   0.59   0.06   0.29   -0.22   -0.62   -0.59   0.23
2017   -0.26   0.15   0.38   -0.07   0.41   0.64   0.19   0.29   -0.27   -0.67   -0.64   0.10
2018   -0.37   0.04   0.33   -0.06   0.41   0.70   0.31   0.29   -0.31   -0.73   -0.70   -0.02
2019   -0.48   -0.06   0.27   -0.04   0.42   0.75   0.43   0.29   -0.36   -0.78   -0.75   -0.15
2020   -0.58   -0.16   0.22   -0.06   0.42   0.80   0.52   0.26   -0.41   -0.83   -0.80   -0.26
2021   -0.68   -0.26   0.14   -0.06   0.42   0.83   0.63   0.26   -0.45   -0.88   -0.83   -0.37
2022   -0.78   -0.36   0.07   -0.06   0.43   0.85   0.73   0.26   -0.50   -0.92   -0.85   -0.47
2023   -0.88   -0.45   -0.01   -0.05   0.43   0.87   0.82   0.26   -0.54   -0.97   -0.87   -0.56
2024   -0.97   -0.54   -0.08   -0.05   0.43   0.89   0.91   0.26   -0.58   -1.01   -0.89   -0.66
2025   -1.05   -0.62   -0.14   -0.07   0.42   0.91   0.98   0.24   -0.62   -1.04   -0.91   -0.74
2026   -1.12   -0.70   -0.18   -0.07   0.42   0.94   1.06   0.24   -0.65   -1.07   -0.94   -0.82
2027   -1.18   -0.76   -0.21   -0.05   0.42   0.98   1.13   0.24   -0.68   -1.10   -0.98   -0.89
2028   -1.23   -0.82   -0.23   -0.04   0.42   1.01   1.20   0.24   -0.70   -1.11   -1.01   -0.96
2029   -1.27   -0.86   -0.23   -0.02   0.41   1.04   1.26   0.24   -0.72   -1.13   -1.04   -1.02
2030   -1.31   -0.90   -0.23   -0.15   0.40   1.07   1.16   0.08   -0.73   -1.13   -1.07   -1.08
   

Accumulated Change in U.S. Government Borrowing From the Public (with interest)

   Interest on Additional U.S. Government Borrowing From the Public   Net Change in Direct Effect on U.S. Government Unified Budget Balance
       
                 
Calendar     (as of 1-1)                 =(5)-(9)-(16)   =(6)-(17)   =(7)-(8)-(18)

Year

  

MB

 

 

IA

 

 

PSA

 

 

MB

 

 

IA

 

 

PSA

 

 

MB

 

 

IA

  

PSA
    (13)   (14)   (15)   (16)   (17)   (18)   (19)   (20)   (21)
                                     
                                     
1998               0.00   0.00   0.05   0.06   0.04   -1.23
1999   -0.06   -0.04   1.17   -0.01   -0.01   0.14   0.10   0.06   -1.40
2000   -0.15   -0.10   2.44   -0.01   -0.01   0.23   -0.14   0.09   -1.50
2001   -0.01   -0.18   3.73   0.00   -0.02   0.33   -0.13   0.12   -1.61
2002   0.12   -0.28   5.04   0.01   -0.03   0.42   -0.12   0.16   -1.71
2003   0.23   -0.41   6.38   0.02   -0.04   0.52   -0.12   0.21   -1.77
2004   0.32   -0.59   7.69   0.03   -0.05   0.60   -0.11   0.27   -1.84
2005   0.41   -0.81   9.00   0.03   -0.07   0.68   -0.11   0.32   -1.90
2006   0.49   -1.07   10.28   0.04   -0.08   0.75   -0.12   0.38   -1.92
2007   0.57   -1.36   11.52   0.04   -0.10   0.81   -0.13   0.42   -1.93
2008   0.67   -1.69   12.70   0.05   -0.12   0.87   -0.15   0.46   -1.92
2009   0.77   -2.03   13.81   0.05   -0.14   0.91   -0.16   0.50   -1.89
2010   0.89   -2.40   14.84   0.06   -0.17   0.98   -0.18   0.55   -1.86
2011   1.01   -2.79   15.78   0.07   -0.19   1.03   -0.19   0.60   -1.82
2012   1.13   -3.21   16.66   0.08   -0.22   1.09   -0.19   0.66   -1.77
2013   1.25   -3.66   17.46   0.08   -0.25   1.13   -0.19   0.71   -1.70
2014   1.36   -4.15   18.15   0.09   -0.28   1.17   -0.17   0.78   -1.64
2015   1.45   -4.67   18.75   0.07   -0.32   1.21   0.50   0.85   -1.56
2016   0.91   -5.23   19.25   0.04   -0.35   1.24   0.59   0.94   -1.46
2017   0.30   -5.85   19.64   0.00   -0.39   1.26   0.68   1.04   -1.36
2018   -0.35   -6.53   19.93   -0.05   -0.44   1.27   0.77   1.14   -1.25
2019   -1.07   -7.28   20.10   -0.09   -0.49   1.28   0.87   1.24   -1.13
2020   -1.84   -8.09   20.16   -0.14   -0.54   1.28   0.97   1.34   -1.02
2021   -2.67   -8.95   20.09   -0.20   -0.60   1.27   1.08   1.42   -0.90
2022   -3.56   -9.85   19.93   -0.26   -0.66   1.26   1.18   1.50   -0.79
2023   -4.50   -10.78   19.67   -0.32   -0.72   1.24   1.28   1.58   -0.67
2024   -5.49   -11.74   19.32   -0.38   -0.78   1.21   1.39   1.67   -0.56
2025   -6.53   -12.73   18.87   -0.45   -0.84   1.18   1.49   1.75   -0.44
2026   -7.61   -13.74   18.32   -0.52   -0.91   1.15   1.59   1.85   -0.32
2027   -8.73   -14.79   17.70   -0.59   -0.98   1.10   1.69   1.95   -0.21
2028   -9.89   -15.89   16.99   -0.67   -1.05   1.06   1.78   2.06   -0.09
2029   -11.06   -17.01   16.20   -0.74   -1.12   1.00   1.87   2.16   0.02
2030   -12.26   -18.18   15.34   -0.82   -1.20   0.95   1.95   2.27   0.14

Notes:
Based on the intermediate assumptions of the 1995 Trustees Report except for 0.21% lower CPI growth.
Returns on equities and bonds are assumed to be essentially constant at historical average rates.
Direct effects on the Unified Budget do not include possible effects on rates of return or rates of economic growth.
(2)&(5) MB nonint income includes amounts that are to be invested in equities.
*(4)&(7) PSA nonint income includes borrowing from the General Fund of the U.S. Treasury; excludes PSA contributions. (19)&(20)&(21) Net effect on unified budget balance reflects changes in OASDI expenditures (including net equity purchases) and tax income, plus the change in in U.S. Government borrowing from the public and the debt service (interest) due to the changes in borrowing from the public. NonTrustFund taxes and expenditures are assumed unchanged.

Office of the Actuary

Social Security Administration

25-Oct-96 

 
 
 
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