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Table III.C1. - Estimated OASDI and HI Income Excluding Interest, Outgo, and Balance as a Percentage of GDP by Alternative, Calendar Years 1996-2070
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Percentage of GDP
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OASDI HI Combined
------------------ ------------------ ------------------ GDP in
In- Out- Bal- In- Out- Bal- In- Out- Bal- dollars
Calendar year come1 go ance come1 go ance come1 go ance (bill.)
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Intermediate:
1996......... 5.10 4.68 0.42 1.46 1.71 -0.25 6.55 6.39 0.17 $7,581
1997......... 5.05 4.68 .37 1.46 1.78 -.32 6.50 6.46 .04 7,964
1998......... 5.04 4.68 .36 1.46 1.85 -.39 6.49 6.53 -.03 8,360
1999......... 5.02 4.69 .33 1.46 1.91 -.46 6.48 6.60 -.12 8,779
2000......... 5.02 4.70 .32 1.46 1.97 -.52 6.47 6.68 -.20 9,229
2001......... 5.01 4.71 .30 1.45 2.03 -.57 6.46 6.74 -.28 9,724
2002......... 4.99 4.72 .28 1.45 2.07 -.62 6.44 6.79 -.34 10,274
2003......... 4.98 4.72 .26 1.45 2.12 -.66 6.43 6.83 -.40 10,869
2004......... 4.97 4.73 .24 1.45 2.16 -.71 6.42 6.88 -.47 11,507
2005......... 4.96 4.73 .23 1.45 2.20 -.75 6.42 6.93 -.52 12,189
2010......... 4.95 4.85 .10 1.46 2.41 -.95 6.41 7.26 -.85 16,219
2015......... 4.96 5.22 -.26 1.47 2.73 -1.26 6.43 7.95 -1.52 21,315
2020......... 4.95 5.73 -.78 1.49 3.13 -1.64 6.44 8.86 -2.42 27,747
2025......... 4.94 6.15 -1.21 1.50 3.52 -2.02 6.44 9.67 -3.24 36,011
2030......... 4.92 6.42 -1.50 1.51 3.92 -2.42 6.42 10.34 -3.92 46,803
2035......... 4.89 6.47 -1.58 1.50 4.22 -2.72 6.39 10.69 -4.30 61,142
2040......... 4.85 6.37 -1.53 1.50 4.40 -2.91 6.34 10.78 -4.43 79,750
2045......... 4.81 6.32 -1.51 1.49 4.52 -3.03 6.30 10.84 -4.54 103,498
2050......... 4.77 6.33 -1.56 1.48 4.59 -3.11 6.25 10.92 -4.67 133,994
2055......... 4.74 6.42 -1.68 1.47 4.65 -3.18 6.21 11.07 -4.86 173,256
2060......... 4.70 6.50 -1.79 1.47 4.75 -3.28 6.17 11.25 -5.07 224,229
2065......... 4.67 6.53 -1.87 1.46 4.89 -3.43 6.13 11.42 -5.29 290,266
2070......... 4.63 6.56 -1.93 1.45 5.04 -3.59 6.08 11.59 -5.51 375,569
Summarized rates:2/
25-year:
1996-2020.... 5.31 5.16 .14 1.54 2.46 -.91 6.85 7.62 -.77 --
50-year:
1996-2045.... 5.13 5.66 -.53 1.52 3.14 -1.62 6.65 8.80 -2.15 --
75-year:
1996-2070.... 5.02 5.85 -.83 1.51 3.55 -2.04 6.54 9.40 -2.86 --
Low Cost:
1996......... 5.09 4.63 .46 1.45 1.69 -.24 6.54 6.33 .22 7,631
1997......... 5.07 4.57 .50 1.45 1.73 -.28 6.53 6.30 .22 8,076
1998......... 5.07 4.51 .56 1.45 1.77 -.32 6.52 6.28 .24 8,554
1999......... 5.07 4.45 .61 1.46 1.81 -.35 6.52 6.26 .26 9,056
2000......... 5.07 4.41 .66 1.46 1.84 -.38 6.53 6.24 .28 9,577
2001......... 5.08 4.37 .71 1.46 1.86 -.40 6.54 6.23 .31 10,116
2002......... 5.09 4.34 .75 1.46 1.88 -.42 6.54 6.22 .33 10,671
2003......... 5.08 4.31 .77 1.46 1.89 -.44 6.54 6.20 .34 11,251
2004......... 5.08 4.29 .80 1.46 1.91 -.45 6.54 6.19 .35 11,862
2005......... 5.09 4.27 .82 1.46 1.92 -.46 6.55 6.18 .37 12,509
2010......... 5.10 4.34 .76 1.47 1.97 -.50 6.57 6.31 .26 16,220
2015......... 5.12 4.68 .44 1.49 2.07 -.58 6.61 6.75 -.15 20,829
2020......... 5.13 5.13 .00 1.51 2.21 -.70 6.63 7.34 -.70 26,551
2025......... 5.13 5.46 -.33 1.52 2.28 -.76 6.65 7.74 -1.09 33,830
2030......... 5.13 5.63 -.50 1.53 2.37 -.84 6.65 8.00 -1.34 43,333
2035......... 5.11 5.57 -.46 1.53 2.44 -.91 6.64 8.01 -1.37 55,912
2040......... 5.09 5.38 -.29 1.52 2.48 -.96 6.61 7.86 -1.25 72,218
2045......... 5.06 5.23 -.16 1.52 2.53 -1.02 6.58 7.76 -1.18 93,077
2050......... 5.04 5.15 -.11 1.51 2.58 -1.07 6.55 7.73 -1.18 119,747
2055......... 5.02 5.12 -.10 1.51 2.63 -1.12 6.53 7.75 -1.23 154,183
2060......... 5.00 5.09 -.09 1.50 2.70 -1.20 6.50 7.79 -1.29 198,785
2065......... 4.98 5.04 -.06 1.50 2.79 -1.30 6.47 7.83 -1.36 256,513
2070......... 4.96 4.99 -.04 1.49 2.89 -1.40 6.45 7.88 -1.44 330,893
Summarized rates:2/
25-year:
1996-2020.... 5.41 4.71 .70 1.55 2.03 -.48 6.96 6.74 .23 --
50-year:
1996-2045.... 5.28 5.02 .26 1.54 2.18 -.64 6.82 7.20 -.38 --
75-year:
1996-2070.... 5.21 5.03 .18 1.53 2.31 -.78 6.74 7.34 -.60 --
High Cost:
1996......... 5.17 4.81 .37 1.47 1.75 -.28 6.64 6.56 .09 7,400
1997......... 5.06 4.90 .16 1.46 1.86 -.39 6.52 6.75 -.24 7,652
1998......... 5.01 4.81 .20 1.45 1.92 -.47 6.46 6.73 -.26 8,216
1999......... 5.08 5.03 .05 1.48 2.05 -.57 6.55 7.08 -.52 8,490
2000......... 5.02 5.16 -.13 1.46 2.14 -.68 6.48 7.30 -.82 8,897
2001......... 4.94 5.13 -.18 1.45 2.21 -.76 6.39 7.33 -.94 9,559
2002......... 4.93 5.15 -.23 1.45 2.28 -.83 6.37 7.43 -1.06 10,204
2003......... 4.91 5.19 -.28 1.45 2.36 -.91 6.36 7.55 -1.19 10,855
2004......... 4.89 5.24 -.35 1.44 2.44 -1.00 6.33 7.68 -1.34 11,534
2005......... 4.88 5.28 -.40 1.44 2.52 -1.08 6.32 7.80 -1.48 12,264
2010......... 4.85 5.42 -.57 1.45 2.98 -1.53 6.30 8.40 -2.10 16,766
2015......... 4.84 5.79 -.95 1.46 3.64 -2.18 6.30 9.43 -3.14 22,583
2020......... 4.82 6.38 -1.56 1.47 4.52 -3.05 6.29 10.90 -4.61 30,064
2025......... 4.79 6.91 -2.12 1.48 5.56 -4.08 6.27 12.47 -6.19 39,749
2030......... 4.76 7.32 -2.56 1.49 6.60 -5.12 6.25 13.92 -7.68 52,540
2035......... 4.72 7.53 -2.81 1.49 7.43 -5.94 6.21 14.96 -8.75 69,544
2040......... 4.67 7.63 -2.96 1.48 7.95 -6.47 6.15 15.58 -9.43 91,527
2045......... 4.62 7.76 -3.14 1.47 8.18 -6.71 6.10 15.95 -9.85 119,606
2050......... 4.58 7.97 -3.39 1.47 8.27 -6.80 6.05 16.24-10.19 155,602
2055......... 4.54 8.26 -3.73 1.47 8.34 -6.88 6.00 16.61-10.60 201,862
2060......... 4.50 8.56 -4.06 1.47 8.49 -7.02 5.96 17.05-11.08 261,577
2065......... 4.46 8.80 -4.34 1.46 8.69 -7.23 5.92 17.49-11.57 338,941
2070......... 4.41 8.99 -4.57 1.45 8.92 -7.47 5.87 17.91-12.04 439,082
Summarized rates:2/
25-year:
1996-2020.... 5.24 5.69 -.46 1.54 3.06 -1.52 6.77 8.75 -1.98 --
50-year:
1996-2045.... 5.01 6.43 -1.42 1.51 4.80 -3.29 6.52 11.24 -4.71 --
75-year:
1996-2070.... 4.88 6.94 -2.05 1.50 5.74 -4.24 6.39 12.68 -6.29 --
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1/ Income excludes interest on the trust funds.
2/ Summarized rates are calculated on the present-value basis including the
value of the trust funds on January 1, 1996 and the cost of reaching and main-
taining a target trust fund level equal to 100 percent of annual expenditures
by the end of the period.
Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.
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