Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

A. NUMBER OF DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) BENEFICIARIES

Table III.A10—DI Disabled Worker Total Termination Rates1
(Terminations per thousand beneficiaries, by age and gender, calendar years 1975-2010)
Year
  15-19
  20-24
  25-29
  30-34
  35-39
  40-44
  45-49
  50-54
  55-59
  60-64
  65-NRA2
  Total
Male
1975
91.90
136.14
102.99
89.65
83.82
76.36
76.54
74.54
76.90
78.78
92.64
79.76
1980
107.01
89.43
84.67
81.09
96.98
104.93
100.25
92.40
83.16
70.54
69.25
83.39
1985
73.42
59.21
55.42
48.79
42.69
48.16
56.69
62.91
68.58
71.75
85.40
63.88
1990
43.52
55.65
64.98
60.52
56.48
50.07
52.62
58.00
63.16
71.59
79.56
62.17
1991
66.93
50.22
60.19
58.64
55.58
50.01
51.35
56.23
61.51
71.14
78.15
60.69
1992
35.74
45.41
59.17
60.61
54.41
50.27
50.02
54.51
59.61
69.65
102.22
59.94
1993
50.94
43.68
54.01
61.10
55.47
50.74
48.59
53.54
58.57
68.40
104.76
58.91
1994
72.12
48.10
56.19
67.60
58.60
53.08
49.61
53.06
56.36
65.62
100.10
58.70
1995
53.59
59.58
65.08
72.73
63.96
56.83
50.23
51.87
54.71
62.88
97.54
59.14
1996
62.88
61.81
61.99
65.86
57.91
51.15
47.83
47.95
51.32
61.87
92.62
55.44
1997
67.58
70.96
78.58
79.76
78.30
74.89
68.19
58.50
54.84
60.86
97.50
65.98
1998
48.10
58.09
57.40
50.13
45.12
42.47
42.96
43.16
48.16
57.87
92.63
49.27
1999
39.37
53.72
60.77
54.00
46.60
44.50
45.23
45.21
49.69
58.17
91.95
50.79
2000
42.44
49.07
67.06
61.98
55.00
49.24
48.34
47.00
49.11
56.91
98.27
52.84
2001
37.44
41.94
55.30
52.02
47.16
43.49
44.05
44.13
47.28
54.62
87.62
48.68
2002
35.97
39.88
51.91
49.14
44.95
41.94
42.95
43.47
46.84
54.30
87.36
47.80
2003
34.51
37.74
48.25
45.98
42.57
40.24
41.75
42.74
46.41
53.97
85.35
47.15
2004
34.53
37.85
48.31
46.03
42.65
40.27
41.76
42.73
46.40
54.03
82.83
47.46
2005
34.25
37.44
47.57
45.46
42.22
39.93
41.53
42.57
46.40
54.06
80.96
47.60
2006
34.05
37.10
47.03
45.01
41.84
39.65
41.31
42.42
46.33
53.88
79.38
47.77
2007
33.67
36.55
46.22
44.31
41.24
39.23
41.01
42.22
46.18
53.59
77.61
47.90
2008
33.55
36.52
46.25
44.30
41.17
39.20
40.96
42.15
46.08
53.54
77.14
48.23
2009
33.21
36.25
45.90
43.97
40.85
38.95
40.76
41.97
45.89
53.49
86.97
48.82
2010
32.92
36.01
45.61
43.68
40.63
38.72
40.55
41.75
45.66
53.29
86.12
48.62
Female
1975
93.46
87.16
81.48
69.03
62.65
66.16
68.96
64.12
57.42
52.29
58.06
59.39
1980
98.48
83.10
72.39
76.08
90.11
97.80
96.33
74.60
61.77
45.75
52.99
64.58
1985
16.81
66.57
61.08
49.04
46.61
49.37
55.38
53.44
52.55
50.48
53.51
51.81
1990
78.58
52.54
49.56
42.42
40.11
43.07
46.74
49.29
48.92
51.74
52.97
48.07
1991
80.00
44.55
42.29
40.00
37.22
40.09
44.44
47.81
48.82
51.82
53.38
46.57
1992
40.93
41.26
39.79
37.54
37.39
39.47
41.89
45.06
45.29
50.31
69.01
44.81
1993
36.16
36.19
38.04
35.53
34.48
36.72
40.08
42.79
44.15
49.64
72.09
43.03
1994
44.09
38.31
39.79
39.35
36.03
37.85
40.54
41.77
43.36
47.35
71.60
42.67
1995
41.14
52.61
50.54
45.24
40.94
40.40
40.39
40.87
41.90
45.89
70.34
43.30
1996
59.84
54.38
50.65
45.46
40.75
38.70
39.43
39.08
39.56
44.29
65.62
41.74
1997
55.46
62.01
57.60
55.65
52.28
48.23
45.10
41.63
39.73
43.34
67.12
45.49
1998
35.97
58.99
47.63
42.53
38.59
38.35
38.54
37.97
37.51
42.25
68.15
40.09
1999
43.62
54.27
51.58
42.30
39.41
37.65
38.89
37.94
37.48
42.30
66.29
40.11
2000
31.61
44.54
55.17
50.28
43.80
41.78
40.47
39.18
37.84
41.44
68.63
41.57
2001
28.11
37.56
45.31
41.58
36.99
36.36
36.15
36.33
36.20
40.00
61.52
37.98
2002
27.25
35.35
42.13
38.74
34.89
34.76
34.95
35.63
35.91
39.93
61.60
37.15
2003
26.33
33.13
38.94
35.87
32.79
33.15
33.71
34.89
35.55
39.84
60.37
36.47
2004
26.34
32.99
38.66
35.63
32.65
33.07
33.70
34.96
35.67
40.08
58.81
36.68
2005
26.22
32.38
37.79
34.89
32.09
32.64
33.40
34.79
35.67
40.15
57.52
36.67
2006
26.16
32.05
37.29
34.48
31.82
32.48
33.30
34.82
35.83
40.27
56.69
36.87
2007
25.72
31.27
36.26
33.57
31.09
31.87
32.78
34.41
35.48
39.90
55.09
36.65
2008
25.28
30.90
35.84
33.19
30.71
31.48
32.38
33.96
35.01
39.43
54.27
36.42
2009
24.89
30.43
35.25
32.66
30.25
31.05
32.00
33.60
34.66
39.15
60.96
36.56
2010
24.85
30.17
34.89
32.35
30.03
30.88
31.90
33.57
34.68
39.20
60.80
36.53
Total
1975
92.22
124.77
97.85
84.16
78.23
73.59
74.32
71.28
70.50
70.34
82.30
73.50
1980
104.66
87.77
81.13
79.66
94.97
102.83
99.05
86.67
75.99
62.22
63.85
77.32
1985
58.76
61.29
57.05
48.86
43.88
48.54
56.27
59.84
63.22
64.59
74.50
59.95
1990
54.92
54.67
60.14
54.80
51.11
47.75
50.57
54.92
58.15
64.76
70.30
57.35
1991
71.16
48.38
54.47
52.64
49.45
46.66
48.89
53.19
56.96
64.42
69.57
55.78
1992
37.62
44.01
52.80
53.04
48.66
46.52
47.08
51.01
54.38
62.83
90.64
54.58
1993
45.76
41.06
48.61
52.52
48.27
45.77
45.46
49.46
53.19
61.66
93.26
53.17
1994
62.08
44.61
50.49
57.84
50.68
47.55
46.21
48.68
51.40
58.95
89.82
52.78
1995
48.90
57.03
59.86
62.93
55.67
50.69
46.47
47.50
49.70
56.55
87.65
53.15
1996
61.69
59.05
57.79
58.34
51.54
46.36
44.54
44.33
46.59
55.19
82.62
50.12
1997
62.99
67.57
70.59
70.55
68.35
64.41
58.91
51.49
48.62
54.04
86.07
57.82
1998
43.76
58.43
53.55
47.13
42.52
40.80
41.12
40.95
43.66
51.64
83.23
45.51
1999
40.94
53.93
57.06
49.27
43.67
41.66
42.54
42.08
44.43
51.70
81.89
46.32
2000
38.31
47.27
62.15
57.13
50.33
46.10
44.94
43.59
44.18
50.47
86.45
48.04
2001
33.83
40.19
51.09
47.56
42.83
40.44
40.59
40.69
42.36
48.43
76.97
44.05
2002
32.60
38.07
47.74
44.61
40.58
38.82
39.41
39.97
41.95
48.12
76.62
43.13
2003
31.36
35.91
44.26
41.49
38.25
37.11
38.17
39.20
41.51
47.83
74.78
42.42
2004
31.40
35.92
44.17
41.34
38.17
37.05
38.14
39.18
41.53
47.90
72.59
42.64
2005
31.19
35.44
43.39
40.65
37.62
36.64
37.84
38.99
41.49
47.90
70.85
42.67
2006
31.04
35.10
42.88
40.18
37.22
36.37
37.65
38.90
41.49
47.80
69.54
42.82
2007
30.65
34.46
41.98
39.36
36.50
35.83
37.22
38.59
41.21
47.44
67.73
42.76
2008
30.42
34.31
41.84
39.18
36.23
35.60
36.97
38.33
40.90
47.16
67.05
42.80
2009
30.07
33.96
41.39
38.75
35.80
35.23
36.65
38.04
40.60
46.96
75.40
43.14
2010
29.89
33.72
41.08
38.46
35.55
34.99
36.47
37.89
40.46
46.85
74.81
42.99

1 Death, recovery, and "other" reasons except conversion to old-age benefit at normal retirement age.

2 Does not reflect termination due to conversion at normal retirement age. See table II.7 for overall disability termination rates

Sources:

Historical rates computed as the ratio of (a) age-specific total terminations, to (b) exposure of disabled worker in force population.

Future rates calculated as the sum of projected termination rates due to death, recovery and "other" reasons.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions


Contents Glossary


List of Studies
December 26, 2001