Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001 Actuarial Study No. 115 Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.

Appendix

G. DISABLED WORKER PROJECTION BY SINGLE-YEAR-OF-AGE

The following is a detailed example of the projection of the number of disabled worker beneficiaries by single-year-of-age. Similar projections are made for the short-range period for each gender and age 15-NRA. The illustration is based on the 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.

Disabled Worker Single-Year-of-Age Projection-Male Age 36 in 2001 (1965 Birth Cohort)

Disability Insured

• Fully insured on January 1: 2,082,400

• Disability insured as a percent of fully insured on January 1: 0.902264

• Disability insured on January 1 (average age $35$¹/₂): $0.902264\; x\; 2,082,400\; =\; 1,878,874$

• Projected fully insured on December 31: 2,083,900

• Projected disability insured as a percent of fully insured on December 31: 0.908514

• Projected disability insured on December 31 (average age $36$¹/₂): $0.908514\; x\; 2,083,900\; =\; 1,893,252$

• In force on January 1: 35,901

Awards

• Projected award exposure: $$¹/₂(1,878,874) + ¹/₂(1,893,252) - 35,901 = 1,850,162

• Baseline incidence rate (male age 36 in 2000): 0.002563

• Projected incidence factor ¹: 0.98831

• Projected incidence rate (male age 36 in 2001): $0.002563\; x\; 0.98831\; =\; 0.002533$

• Projected awards: $0.002533\; x\; 1,850,162\; =\; 4,686$

Terminations

• Projected termination exposure: $35,901\; +$¹/₂(4,686) = 38,244

• Baseline death rate (male age 36 in 2000): 0.01981

• Projected death termination factor ¹: 0.98855

• Projected death rate (male age 36 in 2001): $0.01981\; x\; 0.98855\; =\; 0.01958$

• Projected death terminations: $0.01958\; x\; 38,244\; =\; 749$

• Baseline recovery rate (male age 36 in 2000): 0.03827

• Projected recovery termination factor¹: 0.78480

• Projected recovery rate (male age 36 in 2001): $0.03827\; x\; 0.78480\; =\; 0.03003$

• Projected recovery terminations: $0.03003\; x\; 38,244\; =\; 1,148$

• Baseline "all other" rate (male age 36 in 2000): 0.00161

• Projected "all other" termination factor ¹: 0.71500

• Projected "all other" rate (male age 36 in 2001): $0.00161\; x\; 0.71500\; =\; 0.00115$

• Projected "all other" terminations: $0.00115\; x\; 38,244\; =\; 44$

End-of-year In Force, Suspensions, and Current-Payment Status

• Projected total terminations: $749\; +\; 1,148\; +\; 44\; =\; 1,941$

• Projected in force on December 31: $35,901\; +\; 4,686\; -\; 1,941\; =\; 38,646$

• Baseline withheld rate (male age 36 in 2000): 0.05364

• Projected withheld factor: 1.00415

• Projected withheld rate (male age 36 in 2001): $(1.05364\; x\; 1.00415)\; -\; 1\; =\; 0.05801$

• Projected suspensions: $0.05801\; x\; 38,646\; =\; 2,242$

• Projected current-payment status on December 31: $38,646\; -\; 2,242\; =\; 36,404$

¹ Projected incidence and termination factors by single-year-of-age are based on discussion found in section III.A.

List of Studies
December 26, 2001