2026 OASDI Trustees Report

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING
ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

The future income and cost of the OASDI program will depend on many demographic, economic, and program-specific factors. Trust fund income will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the working population as well as the level and distribution of earnings. Similarly, program cost will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the beneficiary population as well as the general level of benefits.

The Trustees make basic assumptions for several of these factors based on analysis of historical trends, historical conditions, and expected future conditions. These factors include fertility, mortality, immigration, marriage, divorce, productivity, inflation, average earnings, unemployment, real interest rates, and disabled-worker incidence and termination. Other factors depend on these basic assumptions. These other, often interdependent, factors include total population, life expectancy, labor force participation, gross domestic product, and program-specific factors. Each year, the Trustees reexamine these assumptions and methods in light of new information.

Future levels of these factors and their interrelationships are inherently uncertain. To address these uncertainties, this report uses three sets of assumptions, designated as intermediate (alternative II), low-cost (alternative I), and high-cost (alternative III). The intermediate set represents the Trustees’ best estimate of the future course of the population and the economy as of the time assumptions were set in February 2026. With regard to the net effect on the actuarial status of the OASDI program, the low-cost set is more optimistic and the high-cost set is more pessimistic. The low-cost and high-cost sets of assumptions reflect significant potential changes in the interrelationships among factors, as well as changes in the values for individual factors.

While it is unlikely that all of the factors and interactions will differ in the specified directions from the intermediate values, many combinations of individual differences in the factors could have a similar overall effect. Outcomes with overall long-range cost as low as the low-cost scenario or as high as the high-cost scenario are very unlikely. Readers should interpret the estimates based on the three sets of alternative assumptions with care. These estimates are not specific predictions of the future financial status of the OASDI program. Rather, they are intended to provide a reasonable range of future income and cost.

All of the key demographic, economic, and program-specific assumptions reach their long-range ultimate values within the next 25 years. For extrapolations beyond the 75‑year long-range period, the ultimate levels or trends reached by the end of the 75‑year period remain unchanged. The assumed ultimate values represent average annual experience or growth rates. Actual future values will exhibit fluctuations or cyclical patterns, as in the past.

The following sections briefly discuss the various assumptions and methods used in making the projections of trust fund actuarial status, which are the focus of this report.¹ There are, of course, many interrelationships among these factors that are important but are beyond the scope of this discussion.

A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

This section of the report provides a brief overview of the demographic historical data and the assumptions used for the projections.

1. Fertility

Birth rates by single year of age, for girls and women aged 14 to 49,² are the basis for the fertility assumptions. These rates apply to the total number of women, across all marital statuses, in the midyear population at each age. Table V.A1 displays the historical and projected total fertility rates.³

Historically, birth rates in the United States have fluctuated widely. The total fertility rate decreased from 3.31 children per woman in 1918 at the end of World War I to 2.15 in 1936 during the Great Depression. After 1936, the total fertility rate rose to 3.68 in 1957 and then fell to 1.74 by 1976. After 1976, the total fertility rate rose above 2.00 by 1990, where it generally remained through 2009. Since then, it has been generally decreasing, reaching 1.60 in 2024; it is estimated to drop further to 1.59 in 2025.

The variations in the historical total fertility rate resulted from changes in many factors, including social attitudes, economic conditions, birth-control practices, and the racial/ethnic composition of the population. Since the baby-boom era (1946-65), women have had higher educational attainment, higher labor force participation, an older average age at first marriage, and a higher propensity to be unmarried. All of these factors are consistent with continued lower total fertility rates than those experienced during the baby-boom era.

After the baby boom era, the average total fertility rate for years 1966 through 2024 was 1.95 children per woman. There are many factors that indicate that future total fertility rates may be lower than that average. These factors include results from recent surveys of birth expectations, continued lower total fertility rates in recent years, lower total fertility rates in high-immigrant source countries such as Mexico, increased utilization of more effective birth control, other societal changes including lower marriage rates, and possible concerns about economic opportunity for the future. The Trustees assume ultimate total fertility rates of 2.10, 1.75, and 1.40 children per woman for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. The low-cost ultimate rate is the same as the ultimate rate assumed in last year’s report. However, the intermediate and high-cost ultimate rates are 0.15 and 0.20 lower, respectively, than the ultimate rates assumed in last year’s report.

For the intermediate assumptions, the projected total fertility rate gradually increases on a period (annual) basis through the year the ultimate value is reached (2050). The assumed low-cost and high-cost total fertility rates trend away from the intermediate path, also reaching their ultimate values in 2050. The Trustees continue to assume that recent low rates of period fertility are, in part, indicative of a gradual shift to older ages of childbearing for younger birth cohorts.

2. Mortality

Mortality projections are developed based on assumptions about the ultimate average annual percentage reductions in future mortality rates by age group and cause of death. The assumptions are used to estimate future central death rates by age group, sex, and cause of death. From the estimated central death rates, probabilities of death by single year of age and sex are calculated.

Historical death rates were calculated for years 1900 through 2024 for ages below 65 (and for all ages for years prior to 1968) using data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).⁴ For ages 65 and over, final Medicare data on deaths for years 1968 through 2022 and preliminary data for 2023 and 2024 were used.⁵ Death rates by cause of death were produced for all ages for years 1979‑2024 using data from the NCHS. Partial-year, provisional data from NCHS were used to estimate death rates for 2025 for all ages. Note, however, that regressions used for the model projections do not include data for 2020 through 2023 due to the elevated death rates caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The total age-sex-adjusted death rate⁶ declined at an average annual rate of 1.00 percent between 1900 and 2024. Between 1979 and 2024, the period for which death rates were analyzed by cause, the total age-sex-adjusted death rate, for all causes combined, declined at an average rate of 0.82 percent per year.

Death rates have declined substantially in the U.S. since 1900, with rapid declines over some periods and slow or no declines over other periods. Many factors are responsible for historical reductions in death rates, including medical advances, increased availability of health-care services, and improvements in sanitation and nutrition. Historical death rates generally declined more slowly for older ages and more rapidly for children and infants than for the rest of the population. Between 1900 and 2024, the age-sex-adjusted death rate declined at an average rate of 0.77 percent per year for ages 65 and over, and 2.83 percent per year for ages under 15.

Mortality assumptions differ for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost scenarios. Throughout the projection period, the low-cost scenario contains annual percentage reductions that are smaller than those in the intermediate scenario, while those in the high-cost scenario are larger. The ultimate annual percentage reductions for each of the three alternatives are unchanged from last year’s report.

The trends in the annual reductions in central death rates were calculated for the period from 2009 to 2024 (but excluding 2020 through 2023), by age group, sex, and cause of death. These trends are the starting rates of reduction for alternative II. For alternatives I and III, 50 and 150 percent of the starting rates of reduction are used, respectively. These annual rates of reduction, by alternative, are assumed to transition rapidly from the starting rates of reduction until they reach the ultimate annual rates of reduction assumed for 2050 and later.

Table V.A1 contains historical and projected age-sex-adjusted death rates for the total population (all ages), for ages under 65, and for ages 65 and over. Age-sex adjustment eliminates the effect of a changing distribution of population by age and sex. Under the intermediate assumptions, projected total age-sex-adjusted death rates are slightly higher than the rates in last year’s report. These changes result primarily from updating the years used for the regressions.

The projected average annual rate of decline between 2025 and 2100 for the total age-sex-adjusted death rate is about 0.25 percent for alternative I, 0.73 percent for alternative II, and 1.28 percent for alternative III. In keeping with the patterns observed in the historical data, the assumed future rates of decline are greater for younger ages than for older ages, but to a substantially lesser degree than in the past. Accordingly, the projected age-sex-adjusted death rates for ages 65 and over decline between 2025 and 2100 at average annual rates of about 0.26 percent for alternative I, 0.69 percent for alternative II, and 1.15 percent for alternative III. The projected age-sex-adjusted death rates for ages under 15 decline between 2025 and 2100 at average annual rates of about 0.50 percent for alternative I, 1.49 percent for alternative II, and 2.89 percent for alternative III.

Demographers express a wide range of views on the likely rate of future decline in death rates. For example, some believe that the long-standing historical tendency for mortality to decline more slowly at the oldest ages will cease in the future. Others believe that biological factors, social factors, and limitations on health care spending may slow future rates of decline in mortality.

.

Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions,^a
Calendar Years 1940-2100 

Calendar year		Total fertility rateb		Age-sex-adjusted death rate c per 100,000
				Total	Under 65	65 and over
Historical data:
	1940	2.23		1,919.8	750.1	9,718.8
	1945	2.42		1,716.6	674.8	8,662.9
	1950	3.03		1,561.9	570.2	8,173.7
	1955	3.50		1,453.8	508.2	7,758.4
	1960	3.61		1,454.3	503.2	7,795.6
	1965	2.88		1,428.8	495.2	7,653.9
	1970	2.43		1,350.2	485.8	7,113.9
	1975	1.77		1,214.2	426.2	6,467.8
	1980	1.82		1,145.2	383.9	6,221.5
	1985	1.83		1,088.6	352.8	5,994.7
	1990	2.07		1,026.2	333.3	5,646.0
	1995	1.98		1,005.0	318.3	5,582.9
	2000	2.05		964.1	281.4	5,515.8
	2005	2.06		903.7	271.1	5,121.7
	2010	1.93		821.5	248.5	4,641.9
	2015	1.84		813.7	253.0	4,552.0
	2016	1.81		805.9	258.0	4,458.6
	2017	1.76		810.3	258.1	4,492.0
	2018	1.73		801.8	254.7	4,449.5
	2019	1.70		789.5	253.2	4,365.3
	2020	1.64		918.2	300.0	5,040.0
	2021	1.66		930.8	334.3	4,907.8
	2022	1.65		867.3	294.2	4,688.5
	2023	1.60		d801.5	269.0	d4,351.3
	2024	1.60		e775.6	e251.7	e4,268.3
	2025	f1.59		f774.2	f245.8	f4,296.9
Intermediate:
	2030	1.61		749.0	247.4	4,093.3
	2035	1.66		720.2	237.3	3,939.9
	2040	1.72		691.4	226.4	3,791.5
	2045	1.75		663.8	215.7	3,651.0
	2050	1.75		637.7	205.5	3,519.0
	2055	1.75		613.1	195.9	3,394.9
	2060	1.75		590.0	186.7	3,278.5
	2065	1.75		568.2	178.1	3,169.2
	2070	1.75		547.7	169.9	3,066.3
	2075	1.75		528.4	162.2	2,969.5
	2080	1.75		510.1	154.9	2,878.3
	2085	1.75		492.9	148.0	2,792.3
	2090	1.75		476.6	141.5	2,711.1
	2095	1.75		461.2	135.3	2,634.3
	2100	1.75		446.7	129.4	2,561.6
Low-cost:
	2030	1.80		773.1	256.0	4,220.6
	2035	1.95		764.2	253.5	4,169.2
	2040	2.06		754.0	249.9	4,115.4
	2045	2.10		743.6	245.9	4,061.5
	2050	2.10		733.2	241.9	4,008.4
	2055	2.10		722.9	238.0	3,956.3
	2060	2.10		712.9	234.1	3,905.4
	2065	2.10		703.1	230.2	3,855.6
	2070	2.10		693.5	226.5	3,806.8
	2075	2.10		684.0	222.8	3,759.1
	2080	2.10		674.8	219.2	3,712.4
	2085	2.10		665.8	215.7	3,666.7
	2090	2.10		657.0	212.2	3,622.0
	2095	2.10		648.3	208.8	3,578.3
	2100	2.10		639.8	205.5	3,535.4
High-cost:
	2030	1.43		719.3	236.6	3,937.8
	2035	1.37		665.4	216.8	3,656.9
	2040	1.38		615.1	197.4	3,400.0
	2045	1.40		569.7	179.5	3,171.2
	2050	1.40		529.3	163.4	2,968.3
	2055	1.40		493.2	149.0	2,788.3
	2060	1.40		461.1	136.1	2,628.1
	2065	1.40		432.4	124.5	2,485.0
	2070	1.40		406.6	114.1	2,356.6
	2075	1.40		383.4	104.7	2,241.0
	2080	1.40		362.3	96.3	2,136.3
	2085	1.40		343.3	88.6	2,041.1
	2090	1.40		325.9	81.7	1,954.3
	2095	1.40		310.1	75.4	1,874.8
	2100	1.40		295.6	69.7	1,801.6

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a

This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.

b

The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.

c

Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

d

Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.

e

Estimated using preliminary data.

f

Estimated using partial-year, provisional data.

3. Immigration

Projections of the total Social Security area population reflect assumptions for the following four immigration flows:

•	Lawful permanent resident (LPR) immigration: The flow of persons who enter the Social Security area population and are granted LPR status, or who are already in the Social Security area population and adjust their status to become LPRs.7

•	Legal emigration: The flow of LPRs and citizens who leave the Social Security area population.

•	Temporary or unlawfully present immigration: The flow of persons who enter the Social Security area population and stay to the end of the year without being granted LPR status, such as foreign workers and students entering with temporary visas, and immigrants who enter the country illegally.

•

Temporary or unlawfully present emigration: The flow of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants who leave the Social Security area population or who adjust their status to become LPRs. The stock of immigrants from which these emigrants are drawn includes temporary visa holders, those who entered the Social Security area population lawfully on temporary visas but subsequently overstayed their visas, and those who entered the country illegally.

Net LPR immigration is the difference between LPR immigration and legal emigration. Net temporary or unlawfully present immigration is the difference between temporary or unlawfully present immigration and temporary or unlawfully present emigration. Total net immigration refers to the sum of net LPR immigration and net temporary or unlawfully present immigration.

Immigration assumptions differ for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost scenarios. The low-cost scenario includes higher annual net immigration and the high-cost scenario includes lower annual net immigration. Table V.A2 contains historical and projected levels of various immigration flows.

LPR Immigration and Legal Emigration

LPR immigration has increased significantly since World War II, due to various factors and legislative changes, including the Immigration Act of 1965 and the Immigration Act of 1990.

LPR new arrival immigration levels dropped significantly in 2020-22, the initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023 and 2024, the levels of LPR new arrival immigration were elevated somewhat compared to what would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. This elevation represents the first two years of an assumed make-up for the lower levels in 2020-22. For each of the alternatives, the LPR new arrival immigration level for 2025 is estimated to be higher than would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic, completing the make-up for the lower levels in 2020-22. The timing of the assumed make-up differs from last year’s report, in which it was assumed that 2026 would be the last year of the make-up period. Also, the pandemic-related effects on the LPR new arrival immigration levels in 2025 are assumed to be smaller than those in last year’s report.

For the intermediate alternative, the ultimate level of annual LPR immigration, which includes residents who adjust their status to become LPRs, is assumed to be 1,050,000 persons for 2026 and later. For alternatives I and III, ultimate annual LPR immigration is assumed to be 1,250,000 persons and 850,000 persons, respectively, for 2026 and later. The ultimate levels of LPR immigration are unchanged from last year’s report.

The assumed ratios of annual legal emigration to LPR immigration are 20, 25, and 30 percent for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. This range is consistent with the limited historical data for legal emigration from the Social Security area population. These ratios are unchanged from last year’s report. Under the intermediate alternative, by combining the ultimate annual LPR immigration and legal emigration assumptions, ultimate annual net LPR immigration is about 788,000 persons. Ultimate annual net LPR immigration is 1,000,000 persons for the low-cost scenario and 595,000 persons for the high-cost scenario.

Temporary or Unlawfully Present Immigration and Emigration

The number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants in the Social Security area population and the annual level of temporary or unlawfully present immigration were affected significantly by the economic recession of 2007-09. Although temporary or unlawfully present immigration was greatly reduced during the economic downturn and immediate years thereafter, it returned to higher levels for most years from 2014 through 2019, reflecting a recovery from levels experienced during the recession. The COVID-19 pandemic began to affect temporary or unlawfully present immigration in 2020; the level of temporary or unlawfully present immigration is about 504,000 persons lower in 2020 and 113,000 persons lower in 2021 than would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic.

Data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) indicate a notable increase in border crossings in years 2022, 2023, and the first few months of 2024. DHS data further indicate a sharp drop in border crossings in the latter part of 2024 and even lower levels continuing into 2025. Based on the expectation that restrictive border policies will continue into the near future, the Trustees assume a relatively low level of temporary or unlawfully present immigration in 2026 for each of the three alternatives. For years after 2026, the Trustees assume a transition path in which the temporary or unlawfully present immigration levels increase each year from the low levels assumed for 2026 to the ultimate levels.

The ultimate annual levels of temporary or unlawfully present immigration are 1,200,000 persons for alternative II, 1,700,000 persons for alternative I, and 700,000 persons for alternative III. Each of these values is 150,000 less than the respective ultimate values in the 2025 Trustees Report. This assumption change is based on a review of the levels of temporary or unlawfully present immigration since 1999, which average to just under 1,200,000 per year when excluding the unusually low immigration years experienced during the 2007-09 recession and slow recovery that followed. The ultimate levels are attained in 2035 for the low-cost and intermediate alternatives and in 2034 for the high-cost alternative.

Emigration from the temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population includes those who leave the Social Security area population and those who adjust their status to become LPRs. This temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population is highly mobile and far more likely to leave the Social Security area population than is the citizen or LPR population. However, as unlawfully present immigrants stay in the country for longer periods of time, they generally become less likely to leave the country.

The Trustees assume that emigration rates from the unlawfully present population will be higher in years 2025-30 than those assumed in last year’s report. This assumption change is based on the recent adoption of more restrictive policies regarding the unlawfully present population and the expectation that these policies will continue into the near future.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the total annual number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants who leave the Social Security area population averages about 371,000 through the 75‑year projection period. The ultimate annual number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants who adjust status to become LPRs is assumed to be 450,000 for the intermediate assumptions and is unchanged from last year’s report. The total annual number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants who leave the Social Security area population averages about 522,000 for the low-cost scenario and 223,000 for the high-cost scenario through the 75‑year projection period. The ultimate annual number of people adjusting status to LPR status is assumed to be 550,000 persons for the low-cost scenario and 350,000 persons for the high-cost scenario; these levels are unchanged from last year’s report.

The projected size of the temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population drops modestly under the intermediate assumptions, from about 17.3 million at the end of 2025 to about 15.6 million at the end of 2029. This drop reflects the following two factors for the early part of the projection period: (1) an assumed decrease in annual unlawfully present immigration and (2) an assumed increase in the emigration rates from the unlawfully present population. After 2029, the projected size of the temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population grows substantially under the intermediate assumptions, reaching about 28.7 million by the end of 2100. This growth reflects the excess of annual immigration levels over the combined annual numbers of emigrants (including adjustments of status) and deaths that occur within the temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the projected annual levels of net temporary or unlawfully present immigration (that is, inflows less outflows) gradually decrease beginning in 2036. Because the projected number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants leaving the Social Security area population is based on rates of departure, an increase in the number of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants in the Social Security area population results in an increase in the number who emigrate out of that population. All other components of net temporary or unlawfully present immigration are assumed to be stable after 2034, and thus do not contribute toward any change in annual net temporary or unlawfully present immigration. Under the intermediate assumptions, the projected annual levels of net temporary or unlawfully present immigration over the 75-year projection period average about 351,000 persons. The projected annual net temporary or unlawfully present immigration levels average about 590,000 persons under the low-cost assumptions and 115,000 persons under the high-cost assumptions.

Total Net Immigration

The projected annual levels of total net immigration (LPR immigration and temporary or unlawfully present immigration, combined) average about 1,138,000 persons during the 75-year projection period under the intermediate assumptions. The projected annual total net immigration levels average about 1,590,000 persons under the low-cost assumptions and about 710,000 persons under the high-cost assumptions.

Demographers express a wide range of views about the future course of immigration for the United States. Some believe that net immigration will increase substantially in the future. Others believe that potential immigrants may be increasingly attracted to other countries; that the number of potential immigrants may be lower due to lower birth rates in many source countries; or that more stringent immigration laws, policies, and enforcement will lead to low immigration levels in the future.

Table V.A2.—Immigration Assumptions,^a Calendar Years 1940-2100 

[In thousands]

Calendar year		Lawful permanent resident (LPR)					Temporary or unlawfully presentb				Total net change
		Inflow	Outflowc	Adjustments of statusd e	Net change		Inflow	Outflow	Adjustments of statusd e	Net change
Historical data:
	1940	61	15	—	46		—	—	—	—	—
	1945	73	18	—	55		—	—	—	—	—
	1950	227	57	—	171		—	—	—	—	—
	1955	280	70	—	210		—	—	—	—	—
	1960	268	67	—	201		—	—	—	—	—
	1965	279	77	31	232		—	—	31	—	—
	1970	307	93	65	279		—	—	65	—	—
	1975	342	98	51	294		—	—	51	—	—
	1980	430	135	112	406		—	—	112	203	610
	1985	458	144	119	432		—	—	119	261	693
	1990	545	166	1,114	1,493		—	—	1,114	-371	1,122
	1995	509	192	260	577		—	—	260	557	1,134
	2000	482	224	413	672		1,358	368	413	577	1,249
	2005	561	290	597	869		1,645	33	597	1,015	1,884
	2010	622	262	426	786		663	220	426	17	803
	2015	702	280	419	841		1,246	164	419	662	1,503
	2016	770	297	418	891		1,080	656	418	6	896
	2017	703	276	399	827		903	257	399	247	1,073
	2018	693	273	397	818		744	549	397	-203	615
	2019	543	258	489	774		882	886	489	-493	281
	2020	238	145	344	436		696	76	344	276	713
	2021	366	209	471	628		1,187	442	471	274	902
	2022	588	262	462	787		f2,150	f248	462	f1,440	f2,227
	2023	676	298	516	894		f2,550	f254	516	f1,780	f2,674
	2024	860	358	573	1,074		g2,100	f314	573	g1,213	g2,287
	2025	g706	g302	g500	g905		g800	g1,016	g500	g -716	g189
Intermediate:
	2030	600	263	450	788		970	329	450	191	978
	2035	600	263	450	788		1,200	284	450	466	1,254
	2040	600	263	450	788		1,200	311	450	439	1,227
	2045	600	263	450	788		1,200	327	450	423	1,210
	2050	600	263	450	788		1,200	342	450	408	1,196
	2055	600	263	450	788		1,200	352	450	398	1,186
	2060	600	263	450	788		1,200	359	450	391	1,178
	2065	600	263	450	788		1,200	366	450	384	1,172
	2070	600	263	450	788		1,200	372	450	378	1,166
	2075	600	263	450	788		1,200	377	450	373	1,161
	2080	600	263	450	788		1,200	381	450	369	1,157
	2085	600	263	450	788		1,200	384	450	366	1,154
	2090	600	263	450	788		1,200	386	450	364	1,151
	2095	600	263	450	788		1,200	388	450	362	1,150
	2100	600	263	450	788		1,200	389	450	361	1,148
Low-cost:
	2030	700	250	550	1,000		1,380	373	550	457	1,457
	2035	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	354	550	796	1,796
	2040	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	408	550	742	1,742
	2045	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	448	550	702	1,702
	2050	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	482	550	668	1,668
	2055	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	507	550	643	1,643
	2060	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	527	550	623	1,623
	2065	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	542	550	608	1,608
	2070	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	554	550	596	1,596
	2075	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	563	550	587	1,587
	2080	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	571	550	579	1,579
	2085	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	576	550	574	1,574
	2090	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	579	550	571	1,571
	2095	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	582	550	568	1,568
	2100	700	250	550	1,000		1,700	583	550	567	1,567
High-cost:
	2030	500	255	350	595		600	299	350	-49	546
	2035	500	255	350	595		700	222	350	128	723
	2040	500	255	350	595		700	219	350	131	726
	2045	500	255	350	595		700	211	350	139	734
	2050	500	255	350	595		700	205	350	145	740
	2055	500	255	350	595		700	198	350	152	747
	2060	500	255	350	595		700	193	350	157	752
	2065	500	255	350	595		700	190	350	160	755
	2070	500	255	350	595		700	189	350	161	756
	2075	500	255	350	595		700	189	350	161	756
	2080	500	255	350	595		700	188	350	162	757
	2085	500	255	350	595		700	189	350	161	756
	2090	500	255	350	595		700	189	350	161	756
	2095	500	255	350	595		700	190	350	160	755
	2100	500	255	350	595		700	190	350	160	755

---

a

This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.

b

Historical estimates of immigration to (inflow), and emigration from (outflow), the temporary or unlawfully present immigrant population depend on a residual method. Actuarial Services developed these estimates, as well as the resulting temporary or unlawfully present January 1 stock estimates, for years through 2000. For years 2001 and later, the residual method uses stock estimates. For 2001 through 2004, the stock is set to values that linearly grade from the 2000 stock estimate to the 2005 stock estimate. Stock estimates are developed by Actuarial Services, based on the latest methods used by the Department of Homeland Security.

c

Includes both LPRs and citizens who leave the Social Security area population.

d

Estimates include persons who attained LPR status under the special one-time provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

e

Adjustments of status are a positive for net LPR immigration and a negative for net temporary or unlawfully present immigration.

f

Estimated.

g

Estimated, intermediate alternative.

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

4. Total Population

The starting Social Security area population for December 31, 2023, is derived from the Census Bureau’s estimate of the residents of the 50 States and D.C. and U.S. Armed Forces overseas. Adjustments are made to reflect mortality assumptions for the aged population since 2020 that are consistent with Medicare and Social Security data, net immigration assumptions for the aged population since 2020, estimates of the net undercount in the 2020 census, inclusion of U.S. citizens living abroad (including residents of U.S. territories), and inclusion of non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social Security benefits. Actuarial Services projects the Social Security area population by age, sex, and marital status for December 31 of each year from 2024 through 2100 by combining the assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and immigration with assumptions for marriage and divorce. Previous sections of this chapter present the assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and immigration. Assumptions for future rates of marriage and divorce reflect historical data from the National Center for Health Statistics, the Census Bureau, and selected individual States.

Table V.A3 shows the historical and projected population for July 1 by broad age group, for the three alternatives. It also shows the aged and total dependency ratios (see table footnotes for definitions).

Table V.A3.—Social Security Area Population on July 1 and Dependency Ratios,
Calendar Years 1945-2100 

Calendar year		Population (in thousands)					Dependency ratio
		Under 20	20-64	65 and over	Total		Aged a	Total b
Historical data:
	1945	49,107	87,891	10,886	147,883		0.124	0.683
	1950	53,918	92,190	12,789	158,897		.139	.724
	1955	63,337	96,003	15,161	174,500		.158	.818
	1960	72,915	99,752	17,323	189,990		.174	.905
	1965	80,005	104,881	19,153	204,039		.183	.945
	1970	80,856	112,953	21,007	214,815		.186	.902
	1975	78,576	122,592	23,370	224,538		.191	.832
	1980	74,841	134,029	26,315	235,184		.196	.755
	1985	72,893	144,586	29,129	246,609		.201	.706
	1990	74,791	152,730	31,926	259,447		.209	.699
	1995	79,287	160,733	34,294	274,314		.213	.707
	2000	81,980	170,138	35,501	287,619		.209	.691
	2005	83,906	180,820	37,132	301,858		.205	.669
	2010	85,712	188,457	41,017	315,185		.218	.672
	2015	85,011	195,342	47,792	328,145		.245	.680
	2016	85,123	196,393	49,360	330,876		.251	.685
	2017	85,129	197,171	50,978	333,278		.259	.690
	2018	85,038	197,740	52,670	335,448		.266	.696
	2019	84,748	197,923	54,449	337,121		.275	.703
	2020	84,259	197,895	56,087	338,242		.283	.709
	2021	83,683	197,754	57,540	338,977		.291	.714
	2022	83,470	197,960	59,186	340,617		.299	.721
	2023c	83,330	198,971	60,983	343,284		.306	.725
	2024d	83,091	200,168	62,839	346,098		.314	.729
	2025d	82,682	200,488	64,619	347,788		.322	.735
Intermediate:
	2030	79,461	199,580	72,324	351,365		.362	.761
	2035	78,200	202,376	76,797	357,372		.379	.766
	2040	78,397	205,342	79,091	362,830		.385	.767
	2045	80,123	206,803	80,490	367,417		.389	.777
	2050	81,577	206,679	82,753	371,009		.400	.795
	2055	82,138	206,058	85,756	373,951		.416	.815
	2060	81,666	205,843	89,238	376,746		.434	.830
	2065	80,902	206,596	92,214	379,712		.446	.838
	2070	80,733	206,531	95,522	382,786		.463	.853
	2075	81,271	205,440	98,947	385,658		.482	.877
	2080	82,096	204,782	101,192	388,070		.494	.895
	2085	82,665	204,785	102,549	389,999		.501	.904
	2090	82,770	206,205	102,658	391,633		.498	.899
	2095	82,601	207,901	102,702	393,204		.494	.891
	2100	82,511	209,249	103,134	394,894		.493	.887
Low-cost:
	2030	81,561	201,563	72,233	355,356		.358	.763
	2035	83,997	206,206	76,313	366,515		.370	.777
	2040	88,954	210,990	78,000	377,944		.370	.791
	2045	95,782	214,202	78,692	388,676		.367	.815
	2050	101,164	216,985	80,255	398,404		.370	.836
	2055	104,212	220,885	82,638	407,735		.374	.846
	2060	105,884	226,113	85,607	417,604		.379	.847
	2065	107,996	232,512	88,164	428,673		.379	.844
	2070	111,737	238,057	91,059	440,853		.383	.852
	2075	116,659	242,794	94,048	453,501		.387	.868
	2080	121,583	248,637	95,873	466,093		.386	.875
	2085	125,520	256,225	96,836	478,581		.378	.868
	2090	128,470	266,247	96,610	491,328		.363	.845
	2095	131,246	276,115	97,411	504,772		.353	.828
	2100	134,632	284,503	100,033	519,167		.352	.825
High-cost:
	2030	77,550	197,951	72,479	347,980		.366	.758
	2035	72,769	199,046	77,496	349,311		.389	.755
	2040	68,484	200,297	80,631	349,412		.403	.744
	2045	65,476	200,113	83,017	348,606		.415	.742
	2050	63,415	197,213	86,266	346,895		.437	.759
	2055	61,999	192,259	90,143	344,401		.469	.791
	2060	60,105	186,867	94,334	341,306		.505	.826
	2065	57,556	182,288	97,853	337,696		.537	.853
	2070	54,930	176,983	101,628	333,541		.574	.885
	2075	52,707	170,585	105,468	328,760		.618	.927
	2080	51,000	164,236	108,039	323,276		.658	.968
	2085	49,626	157,862	109,609	317,096		.694	1.009
	2090	48,301	152,256	109,788	310,345		.721	1.038
	2095	46,833	147,642	108,696	303,171		.736	1.053
	2100	45,265	144,035	106,436	295,736		.739	1.053

---

a

Ratio of the population at ages 65 and over to the population at ages 20-64.

b

Ratio of the population at ages 65 and over and the population under age 20 to the population at ages 20‑64.

c

Estimated.

d

Estimated, intermediate alternative.

Notes:
1. Historical data are subject to revision.
2. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

5. Life Expectancy

Life expectancy, or the average remaining number of years expected prior to death, is an additional way to summarize the Trustees’ mortality assumptions. This report includes life expectancy both at birth and at age 65, in two different forms (period and cohort), which are useful for separate purposes.

•

Period life expectancy at a selected age for a particular year incorporates the actual or expected death rates at the selected age and each older age for that year. It is a useful summary statistic for illustrating the overall level of the death rates at or above the given age experienced in a single year. Period life expectancy for a particular year provides an individual’s expected average remaining lifetime at a selected age, assuming no change in death rates after that year. Table V.A4 presents historical and projected life expectancy calculated on a period basis.

•

Cohort life expectancy does not incorporate death rates for a single year, instead using rates from the series of years in which an individual would reach each succeeding age. Cohort life expectancy provides the expected average remaining lifetime for an individual at a selected age in a particular year, using actual or expected future death rates for the selected age and all succeeding ages. Table V.A5 presents historical and projected life expectancy calculated on a cohort basis. Cohort life expectancy is generally greater than period life expectancy for a given year because: (1) death rates at any age generally decline over time; and (2) cohort life expectancy uses death rates for future years, while period life expectancy uses death rates only for the given year.

Life expectancy at a given age reflects death rates at that and all older ages. Period life expectancy is somewhat related to the age-sex-adjusted death rate discussed in section V.A.2. However, life expectancy places far greater weight on death rates at relatively younger ages (those at or just above the given age) than those at relatively older ages. Therefore, changes in death rates at young ages, particularly in infancy, affect life expectancy at birth to a much greater degree than changes in death rates at older ages. It is important to keep this concept in mind when considering trends in life expectancy.

Table V.A4.—Period Life Expectancy ^a

		Historical data
Calendar year		At birth			At age 65
		Male	Female		Male	Female
	1940	61.4	65.7		11.9	13.4
	1945	62.9	68.4		12.6	14.4
	1950	65.6	71.1		12.8	15.1
	1955	66.7	72.8		13.1	15.6
	1960	66.7	73.2		12.9	15.9
	1965	66.8	73.8		12.9	16.3
	1970	67.1	74.9		13.1	17.1
	1975	68.7	76.6		13.7	18.0
	1980	69.9	77.5		14.0	18.4
	1985	71.1	78.2		14.4	18.6
	1990	71.8	78.9		15.0	19.0
	1995	72.5	79.1		15.4	19.0
	2000	74.0	79.4		15.9	19.0
	2005	74.8	80.0		16.7	19.5
	2010	76.1	80.9		17.5	20.2
	2015	76.2	80.9		17.8	20.3
	2016	76.1	81.0		17.9	20.5
	2017	76.0	81.0		17.9	20.4
	2018	76.2	81.1		17.9	20.5
	2019	76.3	81.3		18.1	20.7
	2020	74.2	79.8		16.9	19.6
	2021	73.5	79.3		16.9	19.7
	2022	74.8	80.2		17.5	20.1
	2023b	75.8	81.1		18.1	20.7
	2024c	76.5	81.4		18.3	20.8
	2025d	76.7	81.4		18.2	20.7
		Intermediate						Low-cost						High-cost
Calendar year		At birth			At age 65			At birth			At age 65			At birth			At age 65
		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female
	2030	76.8	81.8		18.6	21.1		76.4	81.5		18.4	20.9		77.3	82.2		19.0	21.4
	2035	77.3	82.2		18.9	21.4		76.5	81.6		18.5	21.0		78.4	83.1		19.6	22.0
	2040	77.8	82.7		19.3	21.7		76.7	81.7		18.6	21.1		79.4	83.9		20.2	22.5
	2045	78.4	83.1		19.6	22.0		76.9	81.9		18.7	21.2		80.4	84.7		20.8	23.0
	2050	78.9	83.6		19.9	22.3		77.0	82.1		18.8	21.3		81.3	85.5		21.3	23.5
	2055	79.4	84.0		20.2	22.5		77.2	82.2		18.9	21.4		82.2	86.2		21.9	24.0
	2060	79.9	84.4		20.5	22.8		77.4	82.4		19.0	21.5		83.0	86.9		22.4	24.4
	2065	80.4	84.8		20.8	23.0		77.6	82.5		19.1	21.6		83.8	87.5		22.9	24.8
	2070	80.9	85.2		21.1	23.3		77.8	82.7		19.2	21.7		84.5	88.1		23.3	25.2
	2075	81.3	85.5		21.3	23.5		78.0	82.8		19.3	21.8		85.2	88.6		23.8	25.6
	2080	81.8	85.9		21.6	23.8		78.2	83.0		19.4	21.9		85.9	89.1		24.2	26.0
	2085	82.2	86.2		21.9	24.0		78.3	83.1		19.5	22.0		86.5	89.6		24.6	26.3
	2090	82.6	86.6		22.1	24.2		78.5	83.3		19.6	22.0		87.1	90.0		25.0	26.6
	2095	83.0	86.9		22.4	24.4		78.7	83.4		19.7	22.1		87.6	90.5		25.3	26.9
	2100	83.4	87.2		22.6	24.6		78.9	83.6		19.8	22.2		88.2	90.9		25.7	27.2

---

a

The period life expectancy at a given age for a given year is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for that year over the course of their remaining life.

b

Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.

c

Estimated using preliminary data.

d

Estimated using partial-year, provisional data.

Table V.A5.—Cohort Life Expectancy ^a

Calendar year	Intermediate						Low-cost						High-cost
	At birth  b			At age 65  c			At birth  b			At age 65  c			At birth  b			At age 65  c
	Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female
1940	70.2	76.4		12.7	14.7		70.1	76.3		12.7	14.7		70.2	76.4		12.7	14.7
1945	71.9	77.9		13.0	15.4		71.8	77.8		13.0	15.4		72.0	78.1		13.0	15.4
1950	73.0	79.3		13.1	16.2		72.8	79.1		13.1	16.2		73.2	79.6		13.1	16.2
1955	73.5	79.7		13.1	16.7		73.2	79.4		13.1	16.7		73.9	80.2		13.1	16.7
1960	74.1	80.0		13.2	17.4		73.7	79.5		13.2	17.4		74.8	80.8		13.2	17.4
1965	75.0	80.6		13.5	18.0		74.4	79.9		13.5	18.0		75.9	81.6		13.5	18.0
1970	76.2	81.5		13.8	18.5		75.3	80.6		13.8	18.5		77.4	82.7		13.8	18.5
1975	76.9	82.2		14.2	18.7		75.8	81.0		14.2	18.7		78.5	83.7		14.2	18.7
1980	77.6	82.7		14.7	18.8		76.2	81.4		14.7	18.8		79.5	84.5		14.7	18.8
1985	78.1	83.2		15.4	19.0		76.4	81.6		15.4	19.0		80.4	85.3		15.4	19.0
1990	78.6	83.7		16.0	19.3		76.7	81.9		16.0	19.3		81.2	86.0		16.0	19.3
1995	79.3	84.2		16.7	19.6		77.0	82.2		16.7	19.6		82.2	86.8		16.7	19.6
2000	79.8	84.6		17.3	20.0		77.3	82.4		17.3	19.9		83.0	87.4		17.3	20.0
2005	80.3	85.0		17.8	20.4		77.4	82.5		17.8	20.3		83.8	88.0		17.9	20.5
2010	80.8	85.4		18.2	20.7		77.7	82.7		18.1	20.6		84.6	88.6		18.3	20.9
2015	81.2	85.8		18.5	21.1		77.9	82.9		18.2	20.8		85.3	89.1		18.8	21.4
2016	81.3	85.9		18.5	21.1		77.9	82.9		18.2	20.8		85.4	89.2		18.9	21.5
2017	81.4	85.9		18.5	21.2		78.0	83.0		18.2	20.8		85.6	89.3		18.9	21.6
2018	81.5	86.0		18.6	21.2		78.0	83.0		18.3	20.9		85.7	89.4		19.0	21.7
2019	81.6	86.1		18.6	21.3		78.0	83.0		18.3	20.9		85.9	89.5		19.1	21.8
2020	81.7	86.2		18.7	21.3		78.1	83.1		18.3	20.9		86.0	89.6		19.2	21.9
2021	81.8	86.2		18.8	21.4		78.1	83.1		18.4	20.9		86.1	89.7		19.4	22.0
2022	81.9	86.3		18.9	21.5		78.1	83.1		18.4	21.0		86.2	89.8		19.6	22.2
2023	82.0	86.3		19.0	21.6		78.2	83.1		18.5	21.0		86.4	89.9		19.7	22.3
2024	82.0	86.4		19.1	21.6		78.2	83.1		18.5	21.1		86.5	90.0		19.9	22.4
2025	82.1	86.4		19.1	21.7		78.3	83.2		18.5	21.1		86.7	90.1		20.0	22.6
2030	82.6	86.8		19.5	22.0		78.4	83.3		18.6	21.2		87.3	90.6		20.6	23.1
2035	83.0	87.2		19.8	22.3		78.6	83.5		18.7	21.3		88.0	91.1		21.2	23.6
2040	83.4	87.5		20.1	22.6		78.8	83.6		18.9	21.4		88.6	91.5		21.8	24.1
2045	83.9	87.8		20.4	22.8		79.0	83.8		19.0	21.5		89.2	92.0		22.4	24.6
2050	84.3	88.1		20.7	23.1		79.2	83.9		19.1	21.6		89.7	92.4		22.9	25.0
2055	84.6	88.4		21.0	23.3		79.3	84.0		19.2	21.7		90.2	92.7		23.4	25.4
2060	85.0	88.7		21.3	23.6		79.5	84.2		19.3	21.8		90.7	93.1		23.9	25.8
2065	85.4	89.0		21.6	23.8		79.7	84.3		19.4	21.9		91.2	93.4		24.3	26.2
2070	85.7	89.2		21.8	24.1		79.8	84.5		19.5	22.0		91.6	93.8		24.7	26.6
2075	86.1	89.5		22.1	24.3		80.0	84.6		19.6	22.1		92.0	94.1		25.1	26.9
2080	86.4	89.7		22.4	24.5		80.2	84.7		19.7	22.1		92.4	94.4		25.5	27.2
2085	86.7	90.0		22.6	24.7		80.3	84.9		19.8	22.2		92.8	94.7		25.9	27.5
2090	87.0	90.2		22.9	24.9		80.5	85.0		19.9	22.3		93.2	95.0		26.2	27.8
2095	87.3	90.4		23.1	25.1		80.6	85.1		20.0	22.4		93.5	95.2		26.6	28.1
2100	87.6	90.7		23.3	25.3		80.8	85.2		20.1	22.5		93.9	95.5		26.9	28.3

---

a

The cohort life expectancy at a given age for a given year is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for the series of years in which the individual would reach each succeeding age.

b

Cohort life expectancy at birth for those born in the calendar year is based on a combination of actual, estimated, and projected death rates for birth years 1940 through 2023. For birth years after 2023, these values depend on estimated and projected death rates.

c

Age 65 cohort life expectancy for those attaining age 65 in calendar years 1940 through 2022 is based on a combination of actual, estimated, and projected death rates. After 2022, these values depend on estimated and projected death rates.

---

1

Actuarial Studies published by Actuarial Services, Social Security Administration, contain further details about the assumptions, methods, and projections. A complete list of available studies may be found at www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/actstud.html. This entire report, along with supplemental year-by-year tables and additional documentation on assumptions and methods, may be found at www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2026.

2

Birth rates at age 14 include births to girls aged 14 and under, and birth rates at age 49 include births to women aged 49 and over.

3

The total fertility rate may be interpreted as the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, a specified year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. A rate of about 2.1 would ultimately result in a nearly constant population if immigration and emigration were both zero, and if death rates were to remain at current levels.

4

These rates reflect NCHS data on deaths and Census estimates of population. NCHS death data for 2024 are provisional.

5

These rates reflect Medicare data on deaths and enrollments.

6

Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex for the selected year.

7

Persons who enter the country with valid visas but without LPR status, such as temporary foreign workers and students, are not included in the “LPR immigration” category.