2008 OASDI Trustees Report

C. PROGRAM-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

The demographic and economic assumptions and methods described in the previous sections are used in a set of models to project future income and cost under the OASDI program. In some cases, the economic assumptions result in the direct calculation of program parameters as described in the fol­lowing subsection. These parameters affect the level of payroll taxes col­lected and the level of benefits paid and are calculated using formulas described explicitly in the Social Security Act. In other cases, the combina­tion of demographic and economic assumptions are used indirectly to drive more complicated models that project the numbers of future workers covered under OASDI and the levels of their covered earnings, and the numbers of future beneficiaries and the expected levels of their benefits. The following subsections provide brief descriptions of the derivations of these program-specific factors.

1. Automatically Adjusted Program Parameters

The Social Security Act specifies that certain program parameters affecting the determination of OASDI benefits and taxes are to be adjusted annually, reflecting changes in particular economic measures. The law prescribes spe­cific formulas that, when applied to reported statistics, produce automatic revisions in these program parameters and hence in the benefit and tax com­putations. These automatic adjustments are based on measured changes in the national average wage index (AWI) and the CPI.¹ In this section, values are shown for program parameters that are subject to automatic adjustment, from the time that such adjustments became effective through 2017. Pro­jected values for future years are based on the economic assumptions described in the preceding section of this report.

The following two tables present the historical and projected values of the CPI-based benefit increases, as well as the AWI series and the values of many of the wage-indexed program parameters. In each table, the projections are shown under the three alternative sets of economic assumptions described in the previous section. Table V.C1 includes:

•	The annual percentage increases which have been applied to OASDI benefits under automatic cost-of-living adjustment provisions in the Social Security Act, based on increases in the CPI.

•

The annual levels of and percentage increases in the AWI. Under sec­tion 215(b)(3) of the Social Security Act, the AWI for each year after 1950 is used to index the taxable earnings of most workers first becom­ing eligible for benefits in 1979 or later. This procedure converts a worker’s past earnings to approximately benefit equivalent values near the time of the worker’s benefit eligibility, and these indexed values are used to calculate the worker’s benefit amount. The AWI is also used to adjust most of the other program parameters that are subject to the auto­matic-adjustment provisions.

•	The wage-indexed OASDI contribution and benefit base—the maxi­mum amount of earnings for the specified year that are subject to the OASDI payroll tax and creditable toward benefit computation.

•

The wage-indexed retirement earnings test exempt amounts—the annual amount of earnings below which beneficiaries are not subject to benefit withholding. A lower exempt amount applies in years before a beneficiary attains normal retirement age (NRA). A higher amount applies for the year in which the beneficiary attains normal retirement age. The retirement test does not apply beginning with the attainment of normal retirement age.

 

Table V.C1.—Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index, Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts, 1975-2017 

Calendar year		OASDI benefit increases1 (percent)	Average wage index (AWI) 2		OASDI contribution and benefit base 3	Retirement earnings test exempt amount
			Amount	Increase (percent)		Under NRA4	At NRA5
Historical data:
	1975	8.0	$8,630.92	7.5	$14,100	$2,520	$2,520
	1976	6.4	9,226.48	6.9	15,300	2,760	2,760
	1977	5.9	9,779.44	6.0	16,500	3,000	3,000
	1978	6.5	10,556.03	7.9	17,700	3,240	4,000
	1979	9.9	11,479.46	8.7	22,900	3,480	4,500
	1980	14.3	12,513.46	9.0	25,900	3,720	5,000
	1981	11.2	13,773.10	10.1	29,700	4,080	5,500
	1982	7.4	14,531.34	5.5	32,400	4,440	6,000
	1983	3.5	15,239.24	4.9	35,700	4,920	6,600
	1984	3.5	16,135.07	5.9	37,800	5,160	6,960
	1985	3.1	16,822.51	4.3	39,600	5,400	7,320
	1986	1.3	17,321.82	3.0	42,000	5,760	7,800
	1987	4.2	18,426.51	6.4	43,800	6,000	8,160
	1988	4.0	19,334.04	4.9	45,000	6,120	8,400
	1989	4.7	20,099.55	4.0	48,000	6,480	8,880
	1990	5.4	21,027.98	4.6	51,300	6,840	9,360
	1991	3.7	21,811.60	3.7	53,400	7,080	9,720
	1992	3.0	22,935.42	5.2	55,500	7,440	10,200
	1993	2.6	23,132.67	.9	57,600	7,680	10,560
	1994	2.8	23,753.53	2.7	60,600	8,040	11,160
	1995	2.6	24,705.66	4.0	61,200	8,160	11,280
	1996	2.9	25,913.90	4.9	62,700	8,280	12,500
	1997	2.1	27,426.00	5.8	65,400	8,640	13,500
	1998	1.3	28,861.44	5.2	68,400	9,120	14,500
	1999	6 2.5	30,469.84	5.6	72,600	9,600	15,500
	2000	3.5	32,154.82	5.5	76,200	10,080	17,000
	2001	2.6	32,921.92	2.4	80,400	10,680	25,000
	2002	1.4	33,252.09	1.0	84,900	11,280	30,000
	2003	2.1	34,064.95	2.4	87,000	11,520	30,720
	2004	2.7	35,648.55	4.6	87,900	11,640	31,080
	2005	4.1	36,952.94	3.7	90,000	12,000	31,800
	2006	3.3	38,651.41	4.6	94,200	12,480	33,240
Intermediate:
	2007	77 2.3	40,307.02	4.3	7 97,500	7 12,960	77 34,440
	2008	2.7	41,953.05	4.1	7102,000	713,560	736,120
	2009	2.5	43,679.27	4.1	106,500	14,160	37,560
	2010	2.8	45,434.85	4.0	110,700	14,760	39,120
	2011	2.8	47,226.12	3.9	115,500	15,360	40,800
	2012	2.8	49,089.78	3.9	120,000	15,960	42,360
	2013	2.8	51,050.68	4.0	124,800	16,560	44,040
	2014	2.8	53,053.07	3.9	129,600	17,160	45,840
	2015	2.8	55,091.11	3.8	135,000	17,880	47,640
	2016	2.8	57,198.35	3.8	140,100	18,600	49,440
	2017	2.8	59,376.44	3.8	145,500	19,320	51,360
Low Cost:
	2007	7 2.3	40,296.93	4.3	7 97,500	7 12,960	7 34,440
	2008	2.4	42,140.73	4.6	7102,000	713,560	736,120
	2009	1.9	43,833.37	4.0	106,500	14,160	37,560
	2010	1.8	45,416.45	3.6	111,300	14,760	39,360
	2011	1.8	46,995.78	3.5	115,800	15,360	40,920
	2012	1.8	48,607.27	3.4	120,000	15,960	42,360
	2013	1.8	50,237.06	3.4	124,200	16,440	43,800
	2014	1.8	51,888.66	3.3	128,400	17,040	45,360
	2015	1.8	53,561.45	3.2	132,600	17,640	46,920
	2016	1.8	55,284.42	3.2	137,100	18,240	48,360
	2017	1.8	57,114.87	3.3	141,600	18,720	49,920
High Cost:
	2007	7 2.3	$40,262.64	4.2	7 $97,500	7 $12,960	7 $34,440
	2008	3.5	41,159.10	2.2	7102,000	713,560	736,120
	2009	2.8	43,165.02	4.9	106,500	14,160	37,560
	2010	3.1	45,054.20	4.4	108,900	14,400	38,400
	2011	4.6	46,635.97	3.5	114,000	15,120	40,320
	2012	5.9	49,647.24	6.5	119,100	15,840	42,000
	2013	5.5	53,160.38	7.1	123,300	16,320	43,560
	2014	4.6	55,984.77	5.3	131,100	17,400	46,320
	2015	3.9	58,436.60	4.4	140,400	18,600	49,560
	2016	3.8	60,908.74	4.2	147,900	19,680	52,200
	2017	3.8	63,499.11	4.3	154,500	20,520	54,480

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1

Effective with benefits payable for June in each year 1975-82, and for December in each year after 1982.

2

See table VI.F6 for projected dollar amounts of the AWI beyond 2017.

3

Amounts for 1979-81 were specified by Public Law 95-216. The bases for years after 1989 were increased slightly by changes to the indexing procedure, as required by Public Law 101-239.

4

Normal retirement age. See table V.C3 for specific values.

5

In 1955-82, the retirement earnings test did not apply at ages 72 and over; in 1983-99, the test did not apply at ages 70 and over; beginning in 2000, it does not apply beginning with the month of attainment of NRA. In the year of attainment of NRA, the higher exempt amount applies to earnings in the year prior to the month of NRA attainment. Amounts for 1978-82 specified by Public Law 95-216; for 1996-2002, Public Law 104‑121.

6

Originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554, is effectively 2.5 percent.

7

Actual amount, as determined under automatic-adjustment provisions.

Values for other wage-indexed parameters are shown in table V.C2. The table provides historical values from 1978, when the amount of earnings required for a quarter of coverage was first indexed, through 2008, and also shows projected amounts through 2017. These other wage-indexed program param­eters are:

•

The bend points in the formula for computing the primary insurance amount (PIA) for workers who reach age 62, become disabled, or die in a given year. As illustrated in figure V.C1, these bend points indicate three ranges in a worker’s average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) over which a certain percent factor, 90, 32, or 15 percent respectively, is applied to determine the worker’s PIA.

 

Figure V.C1.—Primary-Insurance-Amount Formula for Those Newly Eligible in 2008

[D]

•	Bend points in the formula used to compute the maximum total amount of monthly benefits payable on the basis of the earnings of a retired or deceased worker. This formula is a function of the worker’s PIA, and, as shown in figure V.C2, relies on four intervals and percentages.

 

Figure V.C2.—Maximum-Family-Benefit Formula for Those Newly Eligible in 2008

[D]

•	The amount of earnings required in a year to be credited with a quarter of coverage (QC). The number and timing of QCs earned is used to determine an individual’s insured status—the basic requirement for benefit eligibility under OASDI.

•

The old-law contribution and benefit base—the OASDI contribution and benefit base that would have been in effect in each year after 1977 under the automatic-adjustment provisions as in effect before the enact­ment of the 1977 amendments. This old-law base is used in determining special-minimum benefits for certain workers who have many years of low earnings in covered employment. Beginning in 1986, the old-law base is also used in the calculation of OASDI benefits for certain work­ers who are eligible to receive pensions based on noncovered employ­ment. In addition, it is used for certain purposes under the Railroad Retirement program and the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974.

 

Table V.C2.—Values for Selected Wage-Indexed Program Parameters,
Calendar Years 1978-2017 

Calendar year		AIME bend points in PIA formula 1			PIA bend points in maximum- family-benefit formula 2			Earnings required for a quarter of coverage	Old-law contribution and benefit base 3
		First	Second		First	Second	Third
Historical data:
	1978	4/	4/1		4/1	4/1	4/1	5 $250	5 $17,700
	1979	5 $180	5 $1,085		5 $230	5 $332	5 $433	260	18,900
	1980	194	1,171		248	358	467	290	20,400
	1981	211	1,274		270	390	508	310	22,200
	1982	230	1,388		294	425	554	340	24,300
	1983	254	1,528		324	468	610	370	26,700
	1984	267	1,612		342	493	643	390	28,200
	1985	280	1,691		358	517	675	410	29,700
	1986	297	1,790		379	548	714	440	31,500
	1987	310	1,866		396	571	745	460	32,700
	1988	319	1,922		407	588	767	470	33,600
	1989	339	2,044		433	626	816	500	35,700
	1990	356	2,145		455	656	856	520	38,100
	1991	370	2,230		473	682	890	540	39,600
	1992	387	2,333		495	714	931	570	41,400
	1993	401	2,420		513	740	966	590	42,900
	1994	422	2,545		539	779	1,016	620	45,000
	1995	426	2,567		544	785	1,024	630	45,300
	1996	437	2,635		559	806	1,052	640	46,500
	1997	455	2,741		581	839	1,094	670	48,600
	1998	477	2,875		609	880	1,147	700	50,700
	1999	505	3,043		645	931	1,214	740	53,700
	2000	531	3,202		679	980	1,278	780	56,700
	2001	561	3,381		717	1,034	1,349	830	59,700
	2002	592	3,567		756	1,092	1,424	870	63,000
	2003	606	3,653		774	1,118	1,458	890	64,500
	2004	612	3,689		782	1,129	1,472	900	65,100
	2005	627	3,779		801	1,156	1,508	920	66,900
	2006	656	3,955		838	1,210	1,578	970	69,900
	2007	680	4,100		869	1,255	1,636	1,000	72,600
	2008	711	4,288		909	1,312	1,711	1,050	75,900
Intermediate:
	2009	$742	$4,472		$948	$1,368	$1,785	$1,090	$79,200
	2010	772	4,655		987	1,424	1,858	1,140	82,200
	2011	804	4,846		1,027	1,483	1,934	1,180	85,800
	2012	836	5,041		1,069	1,542	2,012	1,230	89,100
	2013	869	5,240		1,111	1,603	2,091	1,280	92,700
	2014	904	5,446		1,155	1,667	2,174	1,330	96,300
	2015	940	5,664		1,201	1,733	2,260	1,380	100,200
	2016	976	5,886		1,248	1,801	2,349	1,440	104,100
	2017	1,014	6,112		1,296	1,870	2,439	1,490	108,000
Low Cost:
	2009	742	4,471		948	1,368	1,784	1,090	79,200
	2010	776	4,675		991	1,431	1,866	1,140	82,800
	2011	807	4,863		1,031	1,488	1,941	1,190	86,100
	2012	836	5,039		1,068	1,542	2,011	1,230	89,100
	2013	865	5,214		1,105	1,595	2,081	1,270	92,100
	2014	895	5,393		1,143	1,650	2,152	1,320	95,400
	2015	925	5,574		1,182	1,705	2,224	1,360	98,700
	2016	955	5,757		1,220	1,762	2,297	1,410	101,700
	2017	986	5,942		1,260	1,818	2,372	1,450	105,000
High Cost:
	2009	741	4,467		947	1,367	1,783	1,090	78,900
	2010	758	4,566		968	1,397	1,822	1,120	80,700
	2011	794	4,789		1,015	1,465	1,911	1,170	84,600
	2012	829	4,999		1,060	1,530	1,995	1,220	88,500
	2013	858	5,174		1,097	1,583	2,065	1,260	91,500
	2014	914	5,508		1,168	1,685	2,198	1,350	97,500
	2015	978	5,898		1,250	1,805	2,354	1,440	104,400
	2016	1,030	6,211		1,317	1,901	2,479	1,520	109,800
	2017	1,076	6,483		1,374	1,984	2,587	1,580	114,600

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1

The formula to compute a PIA is (1) 90% of AIME below the first bend point, plus (2) 32% of AIME in excess of the first bend point but not in excess of the second, plus (3) 15% of AIME in excess of the second bend point. The bend points pertain to the first year a beneficiary becomes eligible for benefits.

2

The formula to compute a family maximum is (1) 150% of PIA below the first bend point, plus (2) 272% of PIA in excess of the first bend point but not in excess of the second, plus (3) 134% of PIA in excess of the second bend point but not in excess of the third, plus (4) 175% of PIA in excess of the third bend point.

3

Contribution and benefit base that would have been determined automatically under the law in effect prior to enactment of the Social Security Amendments of 1977. The bases for years after 1989 were increased slightly by changes to the indexing procedure to determine the base, as required by Public Law 101-239.

4

No provision in law for this amount in this year.

5

Amount specified for first year by Social Security Amendments of 1977; amounts for subsequent years subject to automatic-adjustment provisions.

In addition to the program parameters affecting the determination of OASDI benefits that reflect changes in the economy, there are certain legislated changes that have affected, and will affect, benefits. Two such changes are the scheduled increases in the normal retirement age and in the delayed retirement credits. Table V.C3 shows the scheduled changes in these parame­ters and the resulting effects on benefit levels expressed as a percentage of PIA.

 

Table V.C3.—Legislated Changes in Normal Retirement Age and Delayed Retirement
Credits, for Persons Reaching Age 62 in Each Year 1986 and Later

Year of birth	Year of attainment of age 62	Normal retirement age (NRA)	Credit for each year of delayed retirement after NRA (percent)	Benefit, as a percentage of PIA, beginning at age —
				62	65	66	67	70
1924	1986	65	3	80	100	103	106	115
1925	1987	65	3 1/2	80	100	103 1/2	107	117 1/2
1926	1988	65	3 1/2	80	100	103 1/2	107	117 1/2
1927	1989	65	4	80	100	104	108	120
1928	1990	65	4	80	100	104	108	120
1929	1991	65	4 1/2	80	100	104 1/2	109	122 1/2
1930	1992	65	4 1/2	80	100	104 1/2	109	122 1/2
1931	1993	65	5	80	100	105	110	125
1932	1994	65	5	80	100	105	110	125
1933	1995	65	5 1/2	80	100	105 1/2	111	127 1/2
1934	1996	65	5 1/2	80	100	105 1/2	111	127 1/2
1935	1997	65	6	80	100	106	112	130
1936	1998	65	6	80	100	106	112	130
1937	1999	65	6 1/2	80	100	106 1/2	113	132 1/2
1938	2000	65, 2 mo	6 1/2	79 1/6	98 8/9	105 5/12	111 11/12	131 5/12
1939	2001	65, 4 mo	7	78 1/3	97 7/9	104 2/3	111 2/3	132 2/3
1940	2002	65, 6 mo	7	77 1/2	96 2/3	103 1/2	110 1/2	131 1/2
1941	2003	65, 8 mo	7 1/2	76 2/3	95 5/9	102 1/2	110	132 1/2
1942	2004	65, 10 mo	7 1/2	75 5/6	94 4/9	101 1/4	108 3/4	131 1/4
1943-54	2005-16	66	8	75	93 1/3	100	108	132
1955	2017	66, 2 mo	8	74 1/6	92 2/9	98 8/9	106 2/3	130 2/3
1956	2018	66, 4 mo	8	73 1/3	91 1/9	97 7/9	105 1/3	129 1/3
1957	2019	66, 6 mo	8	72 1/2	90	96 2/3	104	128
1958	2020	66, 8 mo	8	71 2/3	88 8/9	95 5/9	102 2/3	126 2/3
1959	2021	66, 10 mo	8	70 5/6	87 7/9	94 4/9	101 1/3	125 1/3
1960 & later	2022 & later	67	8	70	86 2/3	93 1/3	100	124

2. Covered Employment

Projections of the total labor force and unemployment rate are based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions from the Current Population Survey (CPS), and thus represent the average weekly number of employed and unemployed persons, aged 16 and over, in the U.S. in a calendar year. Total covered workers in a year are the number of persons who have any OASDI covered earnings (earnings subject to the OASDI payroll tax) at any time during the year. For those aged 16 and over, projected covered employment is the sum of age-sex components, each of which is projected as a ratio to the CPS concept of employment. For those under age 16, projected covered employment is the sum of age-sex components, each of which is projected as a ratio to the Social Security area population. The projection methodology accounts for changes in the business cycle, the quarterly pattern of growth in employment within each year, changes in non-OASDI covered employment, the increase in coverage of Federal civilian employment as a result of the 1983 Social Security Amendments, and changes in the number and employ­ment-status of other immigrants estimated to be residing within the Social Security coverage area.

Covered-worker rates are defined as the ratio of OASDI covered workers to the Social Security area population. The age-adjusted coverage rate for males age 16 and over is projected to be 71.2, 70.6, and 70.2 percent for 2082 for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively, com­pared to the 2006 level of about 71.7 percent. (Age-adjusted covered worker rates are adjusted to the 2006 age distribution of the Social Security area population.) For females, the projected age-adjusted coverage rate changes from its 2006 level of 63.1 percent to 64.4, 63.8, and 63.1 percent for 2082 for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively.

3. Taxable Payroll and Payroll Tax Revenue

The OASDI taxable payroll is the amount of earnings in a year which, when multiplied by the combined employee-employer tax rate, yields the total amount of taxes due from wages and self-employed income in the year. Tax­able payroll is used in estimating OASDI income and in determining income and cost rates and actuarial balances. (See section IV.B.1, Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances, for definitions of these terms.) Taxable pay­roll is computed from taxable earnings, defined as the sum of wages and self-employment earnings subject to the Social Security tax. In computing tax­able payroll, wages are adjusted to take into account the “excess wages” earned by workers with multiple jobs whose combined wages exceed the contribution and benefit base. Also, from 1983 through 2001, taxable payroll includes deemed wage credits for military service. Prior to 1984, the self-employed tax rate was less than the combined employee-employer rate, thus taxable self-employed earnings were weighted to reflect this. Also, prior to 1988, employers were exempt from Social Security tax on part of their employees’ tips; taxable payroll was reduced by half of this exempt amount to take this into account.

The computation of taxable earnings for employees, employers, and the self-employed is based on total earnings in covered employment. Covered earn­ings are summed from component sectors of the economy, including private, State and local, Federal civilian, and military. Covered earnings for each sec­tor are based on the projected growth of U.S. earnings and a factor that reflects any projected change in coverage (e.g., the increase in coverage in the Federal civilian sector due to mandatory coverage of newly hired employees). The level of taxable earnings reflects only the portion of cov­ered earnings that is at or below the contribution and benefit base. The por­tion of covered earnings that is taxable (i.e., at or below the base) was about 89.5, 86.9, and 82.8 percent for 1983, 1994, and 2000, respectively. This ratio of taxable earnings to covered earnings rose to about 85.8 in 2002, then fell to 83.3 by 2006. The average annual rate of change in the ratio was about -0.3 percent between 1983 and 2006.

Most of this decline was due to a relative increase in wages for high earners. This decline is assumed to continue at a slower rate through 2017 for the intermediate and high cost assumptions. The projected taxable earnings ratios in 2017 are 83.7, 82.9, and 82.1 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively. After 2017, the taxable-to-covered earnings ratio is approximately constant.

Payroll tax revenue is computed by applying the scheduled tax rates to tax­able wages and self-employment income, taking into account the lag between the time the tax liability is incurred and when the taxes are col­lected. In the case of wages, employers are required to deposit withholding taxes with the Treasury on a schedule determined by the amount of tax liabil­ity incurred. (Generally, the higher the amount of liability, the sooner the taxes must be paid—ranging from the middle of the following month for employers with few employees to the next banking day after wages are paid for companies with very large payrolls.) Self-employed workers are required to make estimated tax payments on their earnings four times during the year, as well as making up any under-estimate on their individual income tax return. The pattern of actual receipts by the Treasury is taken into account when estimating self-employed tax collections.

4. Insured Population

Eligibility for benefits under the OASDI program requires some minimal level of work in covered employment. This requirement is established by a worker’s accumulation of quarters of coverage (QCs). Prior to 1978, one QC was credited for each calendar quarter in which at least $50 was earned. In 1978, when quarterly reporting of earnings was replaced by annual reporting, the amount required to earn a QC (up to a maximum of four per year) was set at $250. Since then, this amount has been adjusted each year according to changes in the AWI. Its value in 2008 is $1,050.

There are three types of insured status which can be acquired by a worker under the OASDI program. Each of these statuses is determined by the num­ber and recency of QCs earned. Fully insured status is acquired by any worker whose total number of QCs is greater than or equal to the number of years elapsed after the year of attainment of age 21 (but not less than six). Once a worker has accumulated 40 QCs, he or she remains permanently fully insured. Disability insured status is acquired by any fully insured worker over age 30 who has accumulated 20 QCs during the 40-quarter period end­ing with the current quarter; any fully insured worker aged 24-30 who has accumulated QCs during one-half of the quarters elapsed after the quarter of attainment of age 21 and up to and including the current quarter; and any fully insured worker under age 24 who has accumulated six QCs during the 12-quarter period ending with the current quarter. Currently insured status is acquired by any worker who has accumulated six QCs during the 13-quarter period ending with the current quarter. Periods of disability are excluded from the above described QC requirements for insured status (but do not reduce the minimum of six QCs).

There are many types of benefits payable to workers and their family mem­bers under the OASDI program. A worker must be fully insured to be eligi­ble for a primary retirement benefit, and for his or her spouse or children to be eligible for auxiliary benefits. A deceased worker must have been either currently insured or fully insured at the time of death for his or her children (and their mother or father) to be eligible for benefits. If there are no eligible surviving children, the deceased worker must have been fully insured at the time of death for his or her surviving spouse to be eligible. A worker must be disability insured to be eligible for a primary disability benefit, and for his or her spouse or children to be eligible for auxiliary benefits.

Historical estimates of the fully insured population, as a percentage of the Social Security area population, are made by age and sex for each birth cohort beginning with 1900. These percentages are based on 30,000 simu­lated work histories for each sex and birth cohort, which are constructed from past coverage rates, median earnings, and amounts required for credit­ing QCs. These work histories are developed by a model which assumes that persons who have recently been out of covered employment are likely to remain out of covered employment. This model is aligned such that the sim­ulated fully insured percentages reproduce fairly closely the fully insured percentages estimated from the Continuous Work History Sample from 1970 to date. The fully insured population for future years is projected using this model, reflecting estimated future coverage rates, median earnings, and amounts required for crediting QCs.

Historical estimates of the disability insured population, as a percentage of the fully insured population, are made by age and sex for each birth cohort beginning with 1900. These percentages are based on the same simulated work histories used to project the fully insured percentages. Additional adjustments are made to bring the simulated disability insured percentages into close agreement with those estimated from the Continuous Work His­tory Sample. The principal adjustment is for periods of disability (which are not explicitly taken into account in the model). These periods (which reduce the normally applicable QC requirements) have a negligible effect on fully insured status at retirement age, but a substantial effect on disability insured status. The disability insured population for future years is projected using this model, reflecting projections of the fully insured population.

Projections of the currently insured population are not made. This is because the number of beneficiaries who are entitled to benefits based solely on cur­rently insured status has been very small, and is expected to remain small in the future.

Under this procedure, the percentage of the Social Security area population aged 62 and over that is fully insured is projected to increase from its esti­mated level of 81.0 for December 31, 2005, to 90.5, 90.6, and 91.0 for December 31, 2085, under alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. The per­centage for females is projected to increase significantly, while that for males is projected to decline somewhat. Under alternative II, for example, the per­centage for males is projected to decrease slightly during this period from 92.6 to 91.3, while that for females is projected to increase from 72.1 to 90.0.

5. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries

The number of OASI beneficiaries is projected for each type of benefit sepa­rately, by the sex of the worker on whose earnings the benefits are based, and by the age of the beneficiary. For selected types of benefits, the number of beneficiaries is also projected by marital status.

For the short-range period, the number of retired-worker beneficiaries is developed by applying award rates to the aged fully insured population less those insured persons entitled to retired-worker, disabled-worker, aged- widow(er)’s, or aged-spouse’s benefits, and by applying termination rates to the number of persons already receiving retired-worker benefits.

For the long-range period, the number of retired-worker beneficiaries not previously converted from disabled-worker beneficiary status is projected as a percentage of the exposed population, i.e., the aged fully insured popula­tion less persons entitled to or converted from disabled-worker benefits and fully insured persons entitled only to widow(er)’s benefits. For age 62, a lin­ear regression is developed based on the historical relationship between this percentage and the labor force participation rate. The regression coefficients are then used to project this percentage based on the projected labor force participation rate for age 62. The percentage for ages 70 and over is assumed to be nearly 100, because delayed retirement credit can no longer be earned after age 70. The percentage for each age 63 through 69 is projected based on historical experience with an adjustment for changes in the portion of the pri­mary insurance amount that is payable at each age of entitlement. As the nor­mal retirement age increases, the number of retired-worker beneficiaries not automatically converted from disabled-worker beneficiary status as a per­centage of the exposed population, is gradually adjusted downward.

For the long-range period also, the number of retired-worker beneficiaries previously converted from disabled-worker beneficiaries is calculated sepa­rately in a manner consistent with the calculation of disabled-worker benefi­ciaries.

The number of aged-spouse beneficiaries (excluding those who are also receiving a retired-worker benefit) is estimated from the population projected by age and sex. The benefits of aged-spouse beneficiaries are based on the earnings records of their husbands or wives, who are referred to as “earners.” In the short-range period, insured aged-spouse beneficiaries are projected in conjunction with the retired-worker beneficiaries. Uninsured aged-spouse beneficiaries are projected by applying award rates to the aged uninsured male or female population, and by applying termination rates to the popula­tion already receiving such benefits.

In the long-range period, aged-spouse beneficiaries are estimated separately for those married and divorced. The number of married aged-spouse benefi­ciaries is projected by applying a series of factors to the number of spouses aged 62 and over in the population. These factors represent the probabilities that the spouse and the earner meet all of the conditions of eligibility—i.e., the probabilities that: (1) the earner is 62 or over; (2) the earner is insured; (3) the earner is receiving benefits; (4) the spouse is not receiving a benefit for the care of an entitled child; (5) the spouse is not insured; and (6) the spouse is not eligible to receive a significant government pension based on earnings in noncovered employment. To the resulting number of spouses a projected prevalence rate is applied to calculate the estimated number of aged-spouse beneficiaries.

The number of divorced aged-spouse beneficiaries is estimated by applying the same factors to the number of divorced persons aged 62 and over in the population, with three differences. First, an additional factor is required to reflect the probability that the person’s former earner spouse is still alive (otherwise, the person may be entitled to a divorced widow(er)’s benefit). Second, a factor is required to reflect the probability that the marriage to the earner spouse was at least 10 years in duration. Third, factor (3) above is not applied because, effective as of January 1985, a divorced person generally need not wait to receive benefits until the former earner spouse is receiving benefits.

The projected numbers of children under age 18, and students aged 18 and 19, who are eligible for benefits as children of retired-worker beneficiaries, are based on the projected number of children in the population. In the short-range period, the number of entitled children is developed by applying award rates to the number of children in the population where both parents are alive, and by applying termination rates to the number of children already receiving benefits.

In the long-range period, the number of entitled children is projected sepa­rately by sex of the earner parent. The number of entitled children is pro­jected for each age under 18 from the latest beneficiary data by reflecting changes in the following: the number of children in the population and the proportion of retired workers aged 62 to 71 to the population aged 20 to 71. For student beneficiaries, factors are applied to the number of children aged 18 and 19 in the population, representing the probabilities that the parent is alive, aged 62 or over, insured, and receiving a retired-worker benefit. Another factor is applied representing the probability that the child is attend­ing a secondary school.

The number of disabled children, aged 18 and over, of retired-worker benefi­ciaries is projected from the adult population. In the short-range period, award rates are applied to the population, and termination rates are applied to the number of disabled children already receiving benefits. In the long-range period, disabled children are projected in a manner similar to that for student children with the inclusion of a factor reflecting the probability of being dis­abled before age 22.

In the short-range period, the number of entitled young-spouse beneficiaries is developed by applying award rates to the number of awards to children of retired workers, where the children are either under age 16 or disabled, and by applying termination rates to the number of young spouses already receiv­ing benefits. In the long-range period, young-spouse beneficiaries are pro­jected as a proportion of the projected number of child beneficiaries of retired workers, taking into account projected changes in average family size.

The number of aged-widow(er) beneficiaries (excluding those who are also receiving a retired-worker benefit) is projected from the population by age and sex. In the short-range period, fully insured aged-widow(er) beneficia­ries are projected in conjunction with the retired-worker beneficiaries. Unin­sured aged-widow(er) beneficiaries are projected, by applying award rates to the aged uninsured male or female population, and by applying termination rates to the population already receiving such benefits. In the long-range period, aged-widow(er) beneficiaries are projected by marital status. Four factors are applied to the number of widow(er)s in the population aged 60 and over. These factors represent the probabilities that (1) the deceased earner is fully insured at death, (2) the widow(er) is not receiving a benefit for the care of an entitled child, (3) the widow(er) is not fully insured, and (4) the widow(er)’s benefits are not withheld because of receipt of a significant government pension based on earnings in noncovered employment. In addi­tion, some insured widow(er)s who had not applied for their retired-worker benefits are assumed to receive widow(er)’s benefits. Also, the same factors are applied to the number of divorced persons aged 60 and over in the popu­lation, with additional factors representing the probability that the person’s former earner spouse is deceased and that the marriage was at least 10 years in duration.

In the short-range period, the number of disabled-widow(er) beneficiaries is developed by applying award rates to the uninsured male or female popula­tion, and by applying termination rates to the population already receiving a disabled-widow(er) benefit. In the long-range period, the number is projected for each age 50 up to NRA as percentages of the widowed and divorced pop­ulations, adjusted for the insured status of the deceased spouse, the preva­lence of disability, and the probability that the disabled spouse is not receiving another type of benefit.

The projected numbers of children under age 18, and students aged 18 and 19, who are entitled for benefits as survivors of deceased workers, are based on the projected number of children in the population whose mothers or fathers are deceased. In the short-range period, the number of entitled chil­dren is developed by applying award rates to the number of orphaned chil­dren, and by applying termination rates to the number of children already receiving benefits.

In the long-range period, the number of child-survivor beneficiaries is pro­jected in a manner analogous to that for student beneficiaries of retired work­ers, with the factor representing the probability that the parent is aged 62 or over replaced by a factor that represents the probability that the parent is deceased.

In the short-range period, the numbers of entitled mother-survivor and father-survivor beneficiaries are developed by applying award rates to the number of awards to child-survivor beneficiaries, where the children are either under age 16 or disabled, and by applying termination rates to the number of mother-survivors and father-survivors already receiving benefits. In the long-range period, mother-survivor and father-survivor beneficiaries, assuming they are not remarried, are estimated from the number of child-sur­vivor beneficiaries, taking into account projected changes in average family size.

The number of parent-survivor beneficiaries is projected based on the histor­ical pattern of the number of such beneficiaries.

Table V.C4 shows the projected number of beneficiaries under the OASI pro­gram by type of benefit. Included among the beneficiaries who receive retired-worker benefits are persons who also receive a residual benefit con­sisting of the excess of an auxiliary benefit over their retired-worker benefit. Estimates of the number and amount of such residual payments are made separately for spouses and widow(er)s.

 

Table V.C4.—OASI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status
at the End of Calendar Years 1945-2085 [In thousands]

Calendar year		Retired workers and auxiliaries				Survivors				Total
		Worker1	Spouse	Child		Widow- widower	Mother- father	Child	Parent
Historical data:
	1945	518	159	13		94	121	377	6	1,288
	1950	1,771	508	46		314	169	653	15	3,477
	1955	4,474	1,192	122		701	292	1,154	25	7,961
	1960	8,061	2,269	268		1,544	401	1,577	36	14,157
	1965	11,101	2,614	461		2,371	472	2,074	35	19,128
	1970	13,349	2,668	546		3,227	523	2,688	29	23,030
	1975	16,589	2,867	643		3,888	582	2,919	21	27,509
	1980	19,564	3,018	639		4,415	563	2,610	15	30,823
	1985	22,435	3,069	456		4,862	372	1,918	10	33,122
	1986	22,985	3,086	450		4,927	350	1,878	9	33,685
	1987	23,444	3,090	439		4,983	329	1,837	8	34,129
	1988	23,862	3,088	432		5,013	318	1,809	7	34,529
	1989	24,331	3,095	422		5,057	312	1,782	6	35,004
	1990	24,841	3,104	421		5,098	304	1,777	6	35,551
	1991	25,293	3,106	425		5,142	301	1,792	5	36,064
	1992	25,762	3,115	431		5,187	294	1,808	5	36,603
	1993	26,109	3,098	436		5,207	289	1,837	5	36,981
	1994	26,412	3,069	440		5,218	283	1,865	4	37,292
	1995	26,679	3,027	441		5,213	275	1,884	4	37,522
	1996	26,905	2,971	442		5,199	242	1,898	4	37,661
	1997	27,282	2,926	441		5,043	230	1,893	3	37,817
	1998	27,518	2,866	439		4,981	221	1,884	3	37,911
	1999	27,784	2,811	442		4,936	212	1,885	3	38,073
	2000	28,505	2,798	459		4,901	203	1,878	3	38,747
	2001	28,843	2,742	467		4,828	197	1,890	3	38,969
	2002	29,195	2,681	477		4,771	194	1,908	2	39,227
	2003	29,537	2,622	480		4,707	190	1,910	2	39,448
	2004	29,952	2,569	482		4,643	184	1,901	2	39,733
	2005	30,461	2,524	488		4,569	178	1,903	2	40,126
	2006	30,976	2,476	490		4,494	171	1,899	2	40,508
	2007	31,528	2,431	494		4,436	165	1,892	2	40,947
Intermediate:
	2010	34,209	2,394	533		4,364	153	1,873	2	43,527
	2015	41,056	2,345	623		4,282	143	1,887	1	50,337
	2020	49,138	2,254	689		4,229	137	1,901	2	58,349
	2025	56,369	2,268	741		4,233	133	1,895	2	65,640
	2030	62,728	2,293	779		4,293	129	1,902	2	72,126