Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.6 (2023): Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2023: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status. Young survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving spouses with a child in care) are not affected.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201913.9112.85-1.06
273
0.000.000.00
202013.9412.87-1.07
260
0.000.000.00
202114.0912.90-1.19
245
0.000.000.00
202214.2312.92-1.31
229
0.000.000.00
202314.4012.94-1.46
213
-0.00-0.000.00
202414.5812.97-1.62
197
-0.00-0.000.00
202514.7812.99-1.79
180
-0.01-0.000.01
202614.9813.11-1.87
164
-0.01-0.000.01
202715.1713.13-2.04
147
-0.02-0.000.02
202815.4113.17-2.23
131
-0.03-0.000.03
202915.5813.19-2.40
114
-0.04-0.000.04
203015.7413.20-2.54
98
-0.06-0.000.06
203115.8813.21-2.67
82
-0.09-0.010.08
203215.9913.22-2.77
65
-0.12-0.010.11
203316.0713.23-2.85
48
-0.16-0.010.15
203416.1313.23-2.89
31
-0.20-0.010.19
203516.1513.24-2.92
14
-0.24-0.010.23
203616.1713.24-2.93
----
-0.29-0.020.28
203716.1713.24-2.93
----
-0.35-0.020.33
203816.1613.24-2.92
----
-0.40-0.020.38
203916.1413.24-2.89
----
-0.46-0.030.44
204016.0913.24-2.85
----
-0.53-0.030.49
204116.0213.24-2.78
----
-0.59-0.030.55
204215.9413.24-2.70
----
-0.65-0.040.61
204315.8413.23-2.61
----
-0.72-0.040.68
204415.7313.23-2.51
----
-0.79-0.050.74
204515.6313.22-2.41
----
-0.86-0.050.81
204615.5213.21-2.31
----
-0.93-0.050.87
204715.4213.21-2.21
----
-1.00-0.060.94
204815.3213.21-2.12
----
-1.08-0.061.02
204915.2313.20-2.03
----
-1.16-0.071.09
205015.1313.20-1.94
----
-1.23-0.071.16
205115.0513.19-1.86
----
-1.31-0.081.24
205214.9713.19-1.78
----
-1.39-0.081.31
205314.9013.19-1.71
----
-1.47-0.091.39
205414.8313.18-1.65
----
-1.56-0.091.46
205514.7713.18-1.59
----
-1.64-0.101.54
205614.7213.18-1.54
----
-1.72-0.101.62
205714.6813.18-1.50
----
-1.81-0.111.70
205814.6413.17-1.46
----
-1.89-0.111.78
205914.6013.17-1.43
----
-1.97-0.121.85
206014.5713.17-1.40
----
-2.06-0.121.93
206114.5413.17-1.37
----
-2.14-0.132.01
206214.5213.17-1.34
----
-2.22-0.132.08
206314.4913.17-1.32
----
-2.30-0.142.16
206414.4613.17-1.30
----
-2.38-0.142.23
206514.4413.17-1.27
----
-2.46-0.152.31
206614.4213.17-1.25
----
-2.53-0.152.38
206714.4013.17-1.23
----
-2.61-0.162.45
206814.3813.17-1.22
----
-2.69-0.162.53
206914.3713.17-1.20
----
-2.77-0.172.60
207014.3513.17-1.18
----
-2.85-0.172.67
207114.3313.16-1.16
----
-2.92-0.182.75
207214.3013.16-1.14
----
-3.00-0.182.82
207314.2813.16-1.11
----
-3.07-0.192.89
207414.2513.16-1.08
----
-3.15-0.192.95
207514.2113.16-1.05
----
-3.22-0.203.02
207614.1713.16-1.01
----
-3.29-0.203.09
207714.1213.16-0.97
----
-3.35-0.203.15
207814.0713.15-0.91
----
-3.42-0.213.21
207914.0013.15-0.85
----
-3.47-0.213.26
208013.9313.15-0.79
----
-3.53-0.223.31
208113.8613.14-0.72
----
-3.58-0.223.36
208213.7913.14-0.65
----
-3.63-0.223.41
208313.7213.13-0.58
----
-3.68-0.223.46
208413.6513.13-0.52
----
-3.73-0.233.50
208513.5813.12-0.45
----
-3.78-0.233.55
208613.5113.12-0.39
----
-3.83-0.233.59
208713.4513.12-0.34
----
-3.88-0.243.64
208813.4013.11-0.29
----
-3.93-0.243.69
208913.3613.11-0.25
----
-3.98-0.243.74
209013.3213.11-0.21
----
-4.04-0.253.79
209113.2913.11-0.19
----
-4.10-0.253.85
209213.2713.10-0.17
----
-4.16-0.253.90
209313.2513.10-0.15
----
-4.22-0.263.96
209413.2413.10-0.13
----
-4.29-0.264.02


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2019-2093 14.95% 13.71% -1.24%
2035
-1.64% -0.10% 1.54%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.